
Around the highway running south from Kabul [the "ring road']the landscape is changing. Where there were patches of desert scrub a few months ago US bases are sprouting, complete with 30ft defensive walls, watch towers and internet relaxation areas. The air hums with the sound of electricity generators and helicopters.
As the first of 21,000 additional surge troops arrive, US commanders have one objective in 2009: to retake the Afghan ring road [that will certainly include operations in RC South north and west of Kandahar, and in Helmand province].
The highway, which runs close to the homes of more than 70 per cent of the population, has been a barometer of the country's fortunes over the past five years.
In 2001 the journey from Kabul to Kandahar took two days. Two years later a $250 million refurbishment cut the time to six hours but since 2004 it has become more dangerous.
By last summer it had become a symbol of the breakdown of law and order spreading from the southwest. Taleban fighters mounted random checkpoints on traffic only 30 miles south of the capital, as did criminal gangs.
On June 24 a convoy supplying Nato bases in the south lost 50 trucks. Seven lorry drivers were beheaded by the road because their vehicles had refrigerator units and were therefore deemed Western.
Since January the new troops have pushed into the provinces of Logar and Wardak, south of Kabul, in the first stage of the operation to resecure the road.
In Logar and Wardak three forward bases are operational and outposts are appearing around them, pushing out like spokes of a wheel into areas of insurgent influence.
Junior commanders trot out the US mantra of counter-insurgency: “shape the ground, clear the insurgents, hold the ground against reinfiltration, build government security forces and infrastructure”. The concept is not new but the resources that the US is bringing to this part of Afghanistan are.
In Logar, US troops were told that there was no limit to the funds for development projects this year, though all projects must be approved by higher command and are supposed to be co-ordinated with Afghan government efforts. The Times understands that at least $150 million (£104 million) has been initially budgeted for military development projects in the province.
In their first three months in the province the troops claim to have created 2,100 local jobs and cleared three road-building projects which will use almost entirely local labour.
By the end of the year they want to create 7,500 jobs, an objective which is founded on the notion that many insurgents are simply unemployed rather than ideologically driven.
On the ground this means junior army officers with a lot of money...
Yesterday [March 31] the Pakistani militant leader Baitullah Mehsud [see Update here] promised to step up cross-border attacks.
“There will be some pretty savage fighting for a while till we can get some of the enemy leadership killed or captured,” Colonel Haight said.
For now, the local governor of Baraki Barak district argues, many people are still too frightened to co-operate with the Americans. “If you have just three Taleban living in a village the whole village will fear them,” Yasin Luddin said.
American commanders will hope that that has begun to change by the end of this year.
The Canadian government used an international conference to announce that it has brokered a deal to bolster the anarchic Afghanistan-Pakistan border.
Foreign Affairs Minister Lawrence Cannon said Tuesday the two countries had agreed to timelines and objectives for bringing order to their lawless frontier.
The minister made the announcement from an 80-country meeting on Afghanistan, where all eyes were on the new Obama administration and its beefed-up commitment in the region.
Cannon said he is encouraged by the new American approach, including the idea of viewing Afghanistan and Pakistan as a single challenge.
The border has been a source of tension between the two countries for generations — most recently with back-and-forth movements by insurgents.
Canada has been hosting meetings between the countries in Dubai since 2007. Cannon said the most recent meeting last weekend produced the agreement.
He said the plan identifies customs, movement of people, counter-narcotics and law-enforcement as key priorities and that the countries will create working groups to tackle problems in those areas.
Officials say the sides have agreed to meet several times this year to set objectives in those areas, along with target dates for achieving them. "Ultimately what we want is a functional border between two countries," Cannon said in a teleconference from The Hague, site of the Afghanistan conference.
David Mulroney, the head of Canada’s Afghanistan task force, said the Afghan government told the conference it needs to collect more revenue from citizens instead of foreign donors.
"There’s a tremendous amount of lost revenue when it comes to customs," he said.
"If you have a functioning border and you have customs officials who are able to do their jobs, you are able to cover some of the costs of running your own government."
Terror attack: warlord threatens similar assaults in West: A PAKISTANI warlord yesterday claimed responsibility for Monday’s assault on the Lahore police training academy and threatened attacks on the West.
Baitullah Mehsud leads the biggest faction of Pakistan’s Taliban and is based in the lawless South Waziristan tribal region in the northwest, which borders Afghanistan. Last month, the US offered a $5 million bounty for Mehsud, describing him as key commander of al-Qaeda.
There was also a rival claim for the police school attack from the little-known group Fedayeen al-Islam, which has also claimed responsibility for the Marriott hotel bombing in Islamabad last September. But it is Mehsud’s claim that tallies with the initial government investigation, and is the one being taken seriously.
“We wholeheartedly take responsibility for this attack and will carry out more such attacks in future,” he said, speaking by phone from his hideout. “It’s revenge for the [US] drone attacks in Pakistan.”
Mehsud also threatened the United States directly. “You can’t imagine how we could avenge this threat inside Washington, inside the White House,” he said.
US drone aircraft strikes on the tribal area have more recently been on the part under his control. At least 12 people were killed on Monday when a squad of heavily armed militants stormed the police training school on the outskirts of Lahore, spraying it with gunfire and grenades, and taking hostages.
Asad Munir, a former head of military intelligence for north-west Pakistan, said that Mehsud wanted to emulate Mullah Omar, the founder of the Afghan Taliban.
“He [Mehsud] wants power. He’s not going to lay down arms even if Nato forces leave Afghanistan,” said Munir. “He thinks that, if Mullah Omar can rule Afghanistan, he can rule part of Pakistan [emphasis added].” By offering guns and employment to those within his native Mehsud tribe, a powerful clan in South Waziristan, the Pakistan warlord has built a following of thousands of armed supporters. Originally low-ranking within the clan, he was almost unknown until 2004. Since then Mehsud has terrorised anyone who opposed him, including the chiefs of his tribe.
His Tehreek-e-Taliban group now stretches across the tribal area and into Swat, a valley in the northwest. A copycat of the Afghan Taliban movement, the group emerged in response to Pakistan’s alliance with the US and other western countries after the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the US. Tehreek-e-Taliban trains suicide bombers for missions across Pakistan...
Despite threats of retaliation from Pakistani militants, senior administration officials said Monday that the United States intended to step up its use of drones to strike militants in Pakistan’s tribal areas and might extend them to a different sanctuary deeper inside the country.
On Sunday, a senior Taliban leader vowed to unleash two suicide attacks a week like one on Saturday in Pakistan’s capital, Islamabad, unless the Central Intelligence Agency stopped firing missiles at militants. Pakistani officials have expressed concerns that the missile strikes from remotely piloted aircraft fuel more violence in the country, and some American officials say they are also concerned about some aspects of the drone strikes.
But as Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Richard C. Holbrooke, the special envoy to the region, arrived in Islamabad on Monday, the administration officials said the plan to intensify missile strikes underscored President Obama’s goal to “disrupt, dismantle and defeat” Al Qaeda in Pakistan and Afghanistan, as well as to strike at other militant groups allied with Al Qaeda.
Officials are also proposing to broaden the missile strikes to Baluchistan, south of the tribal areas, unless Pakistan manages to reduce the incursion of militants there.
Influential American lawmakers have voiced support for the administration’s position...
While the Air Force operates its drones from military bases in the United States, the C.I.A. controls its fleet of Predators and Reapers from its headquarters in Langley, Va.
The final preparations for strikes in Pakistan take place in a crowded room lined with video screens, where C.I.A. officers work at phone banks and National Security Agency personnel monitor electronic chatter, according to former C.I.A. officials [emphasis added].
The intelligence officers watch scratchy video captured by the drones, which always fly in pairs above potential targets.
According to the former officials, it is generally the head of the C.I.A.’s clandestine service or his deputy who gives the final approval for a strike. The decision about what type of weapon to use depends on the target, according to one former senior intelligence official.
Top national security leaders have approved lists of people who can be attacked, officials say, and the lawyers determine whether each attack can be justified under international law.
The Government of Canada has released its March 2009 edition of ‘Focus Afghanistan,’ which focuses on justice, rule of law and policing.
http://29711.vws.primus.ca/focus/4-march/4-eng.html
The CDA also recommends that its readers have a look at the Seven Year Project, an initiative to connect Canadians with their military.
http://sevenyearproject.com/
Admiral Mike Mullen is an odd one. He eschews the crisp, classic aura of command; he comes across as a no-drama, common-sense-dispensing country doctor from downstate Illinois (actually, he's the son of prominent show-biz publicists from Los Angeles). But as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mullen is still the highest-ranking U.S. military officer, and so it was a bit disconcerting to see him taking flak from a group of Afghan farmers and international agricultural experts in Kabul the first week in April. "The military is giving away free wheat seed to Afghan farmers, and that's undermining our efforts," said an expert whose USAID-supported program gave farmers vouchers to buy seeds, which was helping build a secondary market of seed- and farm-supply businesses.
Instead of taking umbrage, Mullen took notes. In fact, he seemed close to excited as ideas flew around the table. It was not the normal fare for an admiral, but agriculture — specifically, how to get Afghan farmers to plant something other than opium poppies — is a central issue in this very complicated war. Mullen was thrilled to hear positive news about the relative merits of wheat and pomegranates, and the success of U.S. Army National Guard farmer-soldier teams, which were helping to plant and protect in remote Afghan districts. "There are possibilities here we couldn't imagine a year ago," the admiral said at the end of the meeting. "So please keep thinking about how we can do this. Let your minds run free." (See pictures of soldiers in Afghanistan.)..
..."We've developed the best counterinsurgency capability in the world," Mullen said several times — that focus on protecting the public and building civil order. And so, in addition to the usual round of private meetings with government officials, Holbrooke convened a breathtaking parade of farmers, Afghan tribal leaders, women legislators, rule-of-law advocates, journalists, the local diplomatic corps, religious leaders; and then a similar roundelay in Pakistan...
As a fresh wave of terrorism violence spreads deeper into Pakistan, the Obama Administration is urging the country to act more decisively against militants who are based in the tribal areas and pose a threat to the region and beyond. For Washington, stabilizing Afghanistan depends on stanching the flow of militants from across the border. But while both political will and public opinion have discernibly shifted in recent days, there remain deep divisions — and some resentment on the part of Pakistan — over how to tackle the threat.
In the latest of a series of attacks, a remote-controlled bomb ripped through a music shop in Peshawar on Monday night. The explosion came just hours after Richard Holbrooke, the Obama Administration's special representative to the region, and Admiral Mike Mullen, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, arrived in Islamabad for their first visit since Washington announced its new strategy for the region. The morning before, 22 people were killed by a suicide bomber outside a mosque in Chakwal, a Punjabi town known for its links to the army. And on Saturday night, six paramilitary soldiers died after a suicide bomber blew himself up in the heart of Islamabad. (See pictures from Pakistan's dangerous frontier with Afghanistan.)
Blame for the violence has been cast on Baitullah Mehsud, the leader of the Pakistan Taliban, whose associates claimed responsibility for last week's gun-and-grenade siege of a police training facility on the outskirts of Lahore and later vowed to carry out similar attacks in Pakistan "at least twice a week." Mehsud claimed that his new bombing campaign was retribution for CIA-operated drone attacks that have begun to shower on his fighters since the Obama Administration decided to broaden its range of targets. By focusing on Mehsud, who recently aligned his forces with al-Qaeda and Taliban elements mounting cross-border attacks into Afghanistan, Islamabad and Washington are in a rare moment of agreement. While the Pakistani political and military leadership has discreetly authorized U.S. drone attacks on its soil, the government ritually denounces them in public as a violation of its sovereignty in a bid to contain a hostile public.
But there are fundamental disagreements over Afghanistan. Washington believes that the Pakistani army, through its premier intelligence agency, the Directorate of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), is continuing to back its traditional clients in the jihadist underworld. "There are challenges associated with the ISI's support, historically, for some groups, and I think it's important that that support ends," Mullen told reporters in Islamabad on Tuesday. In its military operations, Pakistan's army has taken on al-Qaeda and militants fighting inside Pakistan but has not targeted those militants — including Mullah Muhammad Omar, the leader of the Afghan Taliban, believed to be hiding in Quetta — who attack only U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan. The army says it has certain priorities and cannot risk opening up another front, given its stretched resources, by attacking those groups.
The role of the ISI and these militants will feature prominently in Holbrooke and Mullen's meeting with the Pakistani leadership, says Najam Sethi, a newspaper editor and a prominent supporter of Islamabad's alliance with Washington against militancy. Pakistani politicians and analysts believe that the military establishment, in its enduring efforts to counter Indian influence in the region, is reluctant to change course until there is a Pakistan-friendly regime installed in Kabul and a resolution to the Kashmir dispute. One politician described the fear of being squeezed from both borders as "being caught in a nutcracker." (Find out why Pakistan fears encirclement by India.)
"There is a proxy war going on, involving Kabul, Kashmir and Quetta," says Mushahid Hussain, a prominent politician who was close to former military ruler President Pervez Musharraf. "Here you want Pakistan to play a pivotal role. But the real fly in the ointment is that by including India in the contact group, the Obama Administration has been insensitive to the fact that Indian and Pakistani interests diverge." The contact group is composed of countries in the area that the Obama Administration has brought in to deal with regional crises. India and Pakistan are both part of the group, even though their mutual animosity goes back to their independence from Britain in 1947. (Read "Can Pakistan Be Untangled from the Taliban?")
Zardari's U.S.-backed government is continuing to struggle. The recent political turmoil has settled but has left the already unpopular President in a weaker position, making it even more difficult for him to influence the army and a skeptical public. "The ISI is run by the army and will do what [Army chief] General [Ashfaq] Kayani wants," says Sethi.
The situation is further complicated by the desire of Pakistan's politicians to pursue a strategy that is seen as being independent of Washington. During Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi's press conference with Holbrooke and Mullen, Qureshi insisted that there were "red lines" that Washington should not cross. "The bottom line is a question of trust," he said. "We are partners, and we want to be partners. We can only work together if we respect each other. There is no other way. Nothing else will work." Mullen agreed that the two allies should work toward a "surplus of trust," while Holbrooke said that "the United States and Pakistan face a common strategic threat, a common enemy and a common change, and therefore a common task."
Still, many Pakistani politicians and analysts believe Washington should play a subtler role in that pursuit. "This is what I said to Holbrooke and Mullen," says Sethi. "It fuels anti-Americanism. I told Holbrooke that leaking allegations against the ISI is counterproductive. I told Mullen that the closer he appears to Kayani, the more he will feel the need to demonstrate his independence to his constituency ... I don't understand why they can't be more discreet."
Sherry Rehman, a prominent member of Zardari's ruling Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and a former minister, echoes the sentiment but allows that Islamabad should step up in its own efforts to battle the militants. "What is not helpful is saying that it is someone else's war," she says. "Yes, it may have arisen from interventions in the past such as in the Afghan jihad, but this is a very clear [and] present challenge. Whether it is homegrown or not, it is now in Pakistan, and solutions can only come up at a national level. International intervention has never really worked here. We have to own it as our own problem now. It is our country. Our land. We have to face the problem and do something about it."
ISLAMABAD -- Pakistan seems like a Molotov cocktail waiting for a match. Its ruling elite bickers over politics, while out on the streets Taliban insurgents step up their suicide attacks. Its military plays the role of national conciliator even as it worries about Muslim revolutionaries in its own ranks. Meanwhile, the United States, Pakistan's historic friend and benefactor, is symbolized in the popular mind by unmanned drones that cruise over the western frontier assassinating Taliban militants by remote control.
Which is why two top Obama administration emissaries, Ambassador Richard Holbrooke and Adm. Mike Mullen, paid an urgent visit here this week to explain the administration's new Afghanistan-Pakistan strategy. During a brief tour, they gathered evidence about Pakistan's crisis and explored ways to help the country move back toward stability.
A hint of Pakistan's troubles came soon after Holbrooke and Mullen arrived here Monday night. Anne Patterson, the highly regarded U.S. ambassador, had assembled some of the nation's political elite to welcome the visiting Americans. During a question-and-answer session, a shouting match erupted between a prominent backer of President Asif Ali Zardari and a supporter of dissident Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry. The dispute, reported later in the Pakistani press, was a snapshot of a country so busy quarreling that it is failing to solve its problems.
The next morning brought fresh evidence of the dangers facing Pakistan. Holbrooke and Mullen met a group of young tribal leaders who had traveled, at great personal risk, from Waziristan and other frontier areas. Some were dressed in the colorful turbans of the frontier; others in Western clothes. If Taliban leaders back home knew they were meeting with Obama's special envoy and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, they could be killed.
"We are all Taliban," one young man said -- meaning that people in his region support the cause, if not the terrorist tactics. He explained that the insurgency is spreading in Pakistan, not because of proselytizing by leaders such as Baitullah Mehsud but because of popular anger. For every militant killed by a U.S. Predator drone, he says, 10 more will join the insurgent cause.
"You can't come see the people because they hate you," he warned. Listening to them speaking through a translator, you realize that "drone attack" has become a vernacular phrase in Urdu.
In truth, I heard more clarity from the young tribesmen than from the elite at the embassy reception. The young men advised that America should channel its aid through the tribal chiefs, known as maliks, rather than the corrupt Pakistani government. It should help train the Frontier Corps, a rough-hewn tribal constabulary, rather than rely on Pakistani army troops who are seen as outsiders. To curb the militant Islamic madrassas, the United States should help improve the abysmal public schools in the region.
Later that day, Zardari met us at his office overlooking the city. He was convincing when he discussed the legacy of his late wife, Benazir Bhutto, who was killed in December 2007 by what he called the "cancer" of Muslim terrorism. But on some major security and intelligence issues, he claimed no knowledge or sought to shift blame to others, and the overall impression was of an accidental president who still has an uncertain grasp on power.
Zardari did offer an intriguing proposal for what to do about the Predator drones. "We would appreciate it if the technology was transferred," he said, so that the Predators could become "our hammer against the [terrorist] menace. Then we could justify it." U.S. officials said later that Zardari's comment could offer a step forward.
As so often in pro-American countries on the brink, part of the problem here is the gap between what officials say in private and what they can admit openly. Pakistani leaders know the Predator attacks help combat the Taliban in remote Waziristan, but they don't want to seem like American lackeys. So they protest in public the very strategy they have privately endorsed. One way or another, that gap has to be closed.
If there's a positive sign in all this chaos, it's that the Pakistani army isn't intervening to clean up the mess. Gen. Ashfaq Kiyani, the army chief of staff, has been telling the feuding politicians to get their act together. But he seems to understand that the route to stability isn't through another army coup, but by making this unruly democracy work before it's too late.
NEW DELHI -- Two U.S. policy makers touted India's critical role in helping to solve the problems in Pakistan and Afghanistan, saying the growing bilateral relationship between the U.S. and India needs to expand to include more cooperation on regional and global issues.
Senior U.S. diplomat Richard Holbrooke, in India on Wednesday [April 8], said the country will play an important role along with the U.S. in helping to stabilize Pakistan andAfghanistan. Mr. Holbrooke held regional security talks with Indian officials after visiting neighboring Pakistan andAfghanistan.
"We can't settle issues like Afghanistan and many other issues without India's full involvement," Richard Holbrooke, U.S. special representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan, said during an official visit here.
"India is a vital leader in the region," added Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, who accompanied Mr. Holbrooke to New Delhi after they both visited Kabul and Islamabad.
But their comments also served to highlight the extreme sensitivities the U.S. faces as it tries to pursue a cohesive diplomatic and military strategy aimed at eradicating Islamist militancy in Pakistan and Afghanistan without heightening tensions between three countries whose shared history is rife with violence and mutual suspicion.
When U.S. policy makers initially considered including Kashmir -- the disputed Himalayan territory that is shared by India and Pakistan -- as part of the U.S.'s new regional policy discussion, India balked. U.S. officials subsequently have taken discussion about Kashmir off the table [emphasis added] even though it remains a central flashpoint in tensions between India and Pakistan. Just this week, Indian troops and suspected militants have been fighting in Indian Kashmir; a gun battle Tuesday left two from each side dead.
Pakistani officials have complained that the U.S. needs to consider all conflicts in the region as it seeks to solve them.
Asked if part of the reason for his Indian visit was to press for the resumption of talks between India and Pakistan over the future of Kashmir, Mr. Holbrooke said, "We did not come here to ask the Indians to do anything. We did not come here with any requests."
Rather, he said, for the first time since India's partition in 1947, when the departing British split the country into India and Pakistan, the U.S., India and Pakistan "face a common threat and a common challenge, and we have a common task" in fighting terrorism and stabilizing Pakistan. U.S. officials view beating back a creeping insurgency in Pakistan as key to winning the war in neighboring Afghanistan...
Mr. Holbrooke also noted India's significant development projects and aid to Afghanistan [emphasis added, see
http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/livingthe-edge-indians-soldierfor-afghanistan%5Cs-reconstruction/354518/
note Indo-Tibetan Border Police in Afstan] and said that better coordination between the U.S. and India in that country would bolster stability. There is "impressive foreign assistance in Afghanistan by India," Mr. Holbrooke said. "Simply by having a dialogue with your government, we realized both have the same priorities."
Yet Indian influence in Afghanistan is another key source of tension with Pakistan, which views India's involvement there as part of a potential encirclement of Pakistan by India [emphasis added]. U.S. officials last year said Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence agency, the country's premier spy agency, played a role in the bombing of the Indian Embassy in Kabul, which killed at least 41. Pakistan denied any involvement.
