The US Presidency 2019

[Good2Golf]

Kinda hard to make a judgement call on tax cuts without accounting for the negative effects of the simultaneous trade protectionism binge...

Not really.  There is a clear relationship between tax rate reduction related outlays and associated tax revenue.  Other flows of money related to GDP, and the impact of the anti-trade measures on such flows of money, have a cumulative effect overall, but do not by themselves represent meaningful influences upon federal tax revenues.

The chart below, sourced from the Congressional Budget Office, shows the clear relation between the tax cut outlays and the tax revenues.  At the risk of raising the ire of many who think POTUS45 is indeed following though with his ‘Job 1’ promises, it is interesting to note that even as America (and the world) was recovering from the 2008 recession, the 7-8 year period from 2008 (which some may note corresponds closely to POTUS44’s mandate) showed a steady increase in revenues relative to outlays. That pattern essentially reversed in the period 2015/2016 to the present. A period that responds fairly closely to POTUS45’s mandate.


Regards
G2G

Link to chart: After 2 Years, Trump Tax Cuts Have Failed To Deliver On GOP's Promises: NPR

 

[Brad Sallows]

My comment was to wonder about the effect of trade protectionism on economic growth (whether it is negligible, or exerts downward pressure on GDP growth).  I don't know the magnitude, although I've seen numbers which show (or claim) that the share of economic activity affected by tariffs (for example) is small.

>The chart below, sourced from the Congressional Budget Office, shows the clear relation between the tax cut outlays and the tax revenues.

I see the chart, but what is the claimed relationship between spending and revenues, exactly?  (ie. what are the equations; plots of two things over time isn't a relationship, it's just a picture of how they each changed.)  A tax cut necessarily decreases revenues unless the tax base increases dramatically, but it does not necessarily increase spending.

From the OMB, revenues in 2012-adjusted billions of dollars, for the same time period:

1998   2,374.8
1999   2,490.1
2000   2,691.3
2001   2,578.5
2002   2,363.4
2003   2,210.2
2004   2,272.3
2005   2,516.5
2006   2,718.4
2007   2,822.3
2008   2,681.1
2009   2,236.3
2010   2,257.3
2011   2,349.3
2012   2,450.0
2013   2,736.3
2014   2,932.9
2015   3,137.6
2016   3,133.2
2017   3,126.4
2018   3,062.8

Revenues have fallen off slightly*, and I'm well aware that people who like to spend public money hate to see the "share" as a % of GDP fall off, but I don't see a problem on the revenue side.  (I do see a problem on the spending side.)  But I don't see how revenue is driven by spending, or spending by revenue, or some more complex cause-effect of the two.

*Per capita adjusted dollars would be better, and would show more of a fall off due to population increase.

(I agree that the cuts failed to meet the pie-in-the-sky promises, which it was dumb of anyone to take at face value in the first place.  What's worth paying attention to is the time elapsed since the last recession.)

 

[mariomike]

At the risk of raising the ire of many who think POTUS45 is indeed following though with his ‘Job 1’ promises,

I'll take the ire. 

For reference to the discussion, this is from Wikipedia. Sources ( #273 - 280 ) are linked at bottom of the page.

Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_Cuts_and_Jobs_Act_of_2017#Results
Analysis of first-year results released by the Congressional Research Service in May 2019 found:[273][274]
"a relatively small (if any) first-year effect on the economy"
"a feedback effect of 0.3% of GDP or less," such that the tax cut did not pay for itself
"pretax profits and economic depreciation (the price of capital) grew faster than wages," meaning shareholders benefited more than workers
inflation-adjusted wage growth "is smaller than overall growth in labor compensation and indicates that ordinary workers had very little growth in wage rates"
"the evidence does not suggest a surge in investment from abroad in 2018"
"While evidence does indicate significant repurchases of shares, either from tax cuts or repatriated revenues, relatively little was directed to paying worker bonuses"

The tax cut was enacted three months into the 2018 fiscal year. Corporate tax receipts for the full fiscal year ended September 2018 were down 31% from the prior fiscal year, the largest decline since records began in 1934, except for during the Great Recession when corporate profits, and hence corporate tax receipts, plummeted. Analysts attributed the fiscal 2018 decline to the tax cut.[275][276][277][278]

The Council of Economic Advisers had estimated in October 2017 that the corporate tax cut of the TCJA would increase real median household income by $3000 to $7000 annually,[279] but during the first year following enactment of the tax cut the figure increased by $553, which the Census Bureau characterized as statistically insignificant.[280]

Not an expert. I'll let those who are sort it out.

 

[Remius]

So Bolton has something to say about the POTUS and North Korea

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/john-bolton-criticizes-trumps-approach-to-north-korea-amid-heightened-tension

Puts this in perspective

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/23/trump-nobel-peace-prize-1508484

 

[PPCLI Guy]

All the best words.....

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/12/23/what-trump-was-talking-about-his-baffling-rant-about-wind-energy/

We’ll have an economy based on wind. I never understood wind. You know, I know windmills very much. I’ve studied it better than anybody. I know it’s very expensive. They’re made in China and Germany mostly — very few made here, almost none. But they’re manufactured tremendous — if you’re into this — tremendous fumes. Gases are spewing into the atmosphere. You know we have a world, right? So the world is tiny compared to the universe. So tremendous, tremendous amount of fumes and everything. You talk about the carbon footprint — fumes are spewing into the air. Right? Spewing. Whether it’s in China, Germany, it’s going into the air. It’s our air, their air, everything — right? So they make these things and then they put them up.

 

[brihard]

All the best words.....

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/12/23/what-trump-was-talking-about-his-baffling-rant-about-wind-energy/

Donald Quixote...

 

[FJAG]

Where wind turbines are manufactured:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wind_turbine_manufacturers

:cheers:

 

[brihard]

Where wind turbines are manufactured:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wind_turbine_manufacturers

:cheers:

Not to attempt to loan the man coherence of word or thought that he plainly lacks, but one fact that does niggle at my brain is that the very powerful rare earth magnets used in wind turbines are almost entirely controlled by Chinese producers. They successfully cornered that market and nearly entirely killed a flurry of competition about eight or ten years ago.

 

[QV]

This is about the best summation I’ve come across yet of just how bad the FISC abuse was.  I can’t emphasize enough how terrible and dangerous these actions were to a free and democratic society.  This should shock the conscience of everyone, no matter who the target was. 

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2019/12/two_possibilities_in_trump_wiretapping_and_neither_is_good.html

 

[mariomike]

I can’t emphasize enough how terrible and dangerous these actions were to a free and democratic society. 

Title says, "Two Possibilities in Trump Wiretapping".

 

[Jarnhamar]

No one has brought up Trump being pissy about having his footage removed from Home Alone 2 yet?

 

[mariomike]

He was also cut from "Scent of a Woman".
https://www.google.com/search?sxsrf=ACYBGNQk1EUzou3MmIiP5SWrVAlHIdwUVw%3A1577552914930&ei=EowHXrKpOJC7gge194T4Dw&q=trump+%22scent+of+a+woman%22&oq=trump+%22scent+of+a+woman%22&gs_l=psy-ab.3..0i22i30.57516.73280..73737...0.0..0.160.2192.2j16......0....1..gws-wiz.......35i39j0i7i30j0j0i67j0i8i10i30j0i5i30j0i20i263j0i10j0i22i10i30.AShErfb3vG4&ved=0ahUKEwiy-u7I6tjmAhWQneAKHbU7Af8Q4dUDCAo&uact=5#spf=1577552991732

 

[Good2Golf]

On the plus side for him, he’s still in The Simpsons.

 

[Brad Sallows]

And the article says "I can only see two possible interpretations of the actions of the FBI and DOJ".  (Incompetence across several levels and opportunities for review, or intentional malfeasance.)  More to follow from Durham and from the FISC judge (Collyer).

The author identifies what he believes is at stake (no, not Trump vs Democrats): "Despite the legitimate concerns of civil libertarians, the FISA process has indisputably proved an invaluable resource in safeguarding the country from terrorism.  If the heinous abuses documented in the I.G.s report result in a weakening or loss of FISA, we will all be the worse for it."  The harm doesn't depend on whether incompetence or intent was the root.

 

[mariomike]

For reference to the discussion,

Trump Tower wiretapping allegations
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_Tower_wiretapping_allegations

 

[QV]

No one has brought up Trump being pissy about having his footage removed from Home Alone 2 yet?

It seems to me his humour is intact.  If you interpret his response as some sort of hissy fit then I think you’re just seeing red. 

 

[QV]

For reference to the discussion,

I see that wiki page hasn’t been updated with the IG findings that vindicate Trump’s belief he was spied on. 

 

[mariomike]

No one has brought up Trump being pissy about having his footage removed from Home Alone 2 yet?

If you interpret his response as some sort of hissy fit then I think you’re just seeing red.

Junior seems a bit "triggered",
https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/1210570052354920450
"Don Jr. Calls CBC 'Pathetic' for Cutting His Father out of Home Alone 2"

I see that wiki page hasn’t been updated with the IG findings that vindicate Trump’s belief he was spied on.

Spygate (conspiracy theory)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spygate_(conspiracy_theory)#2019_Justice_Department_Inspector_General_report

2019 Justice Department Inspector General report

A December 2019 Justice Department Inspector General report "found no evidence that the FBI attempted to place any [Confidential Human Sources] within the Trump campaign, recruit members of the Trump campaign as CHSs, or task CHSs to report on the Trump campaign."
https://www.google.com/search?sxsrf=ACYBGNTTTP5eT-ef7BJFIUk7zq3HqsgAkA%3A1577574576565&ei=sOAHXoSYIseosgXU0YW4Cg&q=%22found+no+evidence+that+the+FBI+attempted+to+place+any%22+%22within+the+Trump+campaign%2C+recruit+members+of+the+Trump+campaign+as%22+&oq=%22found+no+evidence+that+the+FBI+attempted+to+place+any%22+%22within+the+Trump+campaign%2C+recruit+members+of+the+Trump+campaign+as%22+&gs_l=psy-ab.3..35i302i39.68361.81108..81640...0.0..0.210.423.1j1j1......3....1j2..gws-wiz.b1jOXgQpXSw&ved=0ahUKEwiEsPihu9nmAhVHlKwKHdRoAacQ4dUDCAo&uact=5#spf=1577574660625

The Horowitz report busts these right-wing media conspiracy theories
https://www.mediamatters.org/trumprussia/horowitz-report-busts-these-right-wing-media-conspiracy-theories

Not that it’s stopping them from still trying

 

[QV]

MM, from your postings, I get the impression you’ve absorbed nothing more than that wiki page and maybe a few CNN hit pieces on this topic. 

 

[mariomike]

MM, from your postings, I get the impression you’ve absorbed nothing more than that wiki page and maybe a few CNN hit pieces on this topic.

Junior's Twitter account,
Junior seems a bit "triggered",
https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/1210570052354920450
"Don Jr. Calls CBC 'Pathetic' for Cutting His Father out of Home Alone 2"

216  sources,

A December 2019 Justice Department Inspector General report "found no evidence that the FBI attempted to place any [Confidential Human Sources] within the Trump campaign, recruit members of the Trump campaign as CHSs, or task CHSs to report on the Trump campaign."
https://www.google.com/search?sxsrf=ACYBGNTTTP5eT-ef7BJFIUk7zq3HqsgAkA%3A1577574576565&ei=sOAHXoSYIseosgXU0YW4Cg&q=%22found+no+evidence+that+the+FBI+attempted+to+place+any%22+%22within+the+Trump+campaign%2C+recruit+members+of+the+Trump+campaign+as%22+&oq=%22found+no+evidence+that+the+FBI+attempted+to+place+any%22+%22within+the+Trump+campaign%2C+recruit+members+of+the+Trump+campaign+as%22+&gs_l=psy-ab.3..35i302i39.68361.81108..81640...0.0..0.210.423.1j1j1......3....1j2..gws-wiz.b1jOXgQpXSw&ved=0ahUKEwiEsPihu9nmAhVHlKwKHdRoAacQ4dUDCAo&uact=5#spf=1577574660625

Media Matters,

The Horowitz report busts these right-wing media conspiracy theories
https://www.mediamatters.org/trumprussia/horowitz-report-busts-these-right-wing-media-conspiracy-theories

Not that it’s stopping them from still trying

Fox News,

Fox's Chris Wallace: IG report headline is 'It didn't find the things that Bill Barr and Donald Trump alleged'
https://thehill.com/homenews/media/473702-chris-wallace-ig-report-headline-is-it-didnt-find-the-things-that-bill-barr

Incidentally, Wikipedia lists their sources at the end of the article. So you don't have to take their word for it.

You tell us how many of the sources I have provided you are Wikipedia or CNN.