The War in Ukraine

[Colin Parkinson]

I don't think Russia want a direct conflict with NATO, they are already struggling against one semi-aligned country and have had to strip the NATO borders of men and equipment to achieve any success.

 

[KevinB]

I don't think Russia want a direct conflict with NATO, they are already struggling against one semi-aligned country and have had to strip the NATO borders of men and equipment to achieve any success.

Russia wants a bunch of NATO territory but only wants open war with individual states - so they will keep picking at dominos. However they are conducting sabotage and assassination inside the West and will until we wake up that we are at war with them...

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Best way to fight Russia is arm the snot out of the Ukraine's, then the other border states. Start a "Tranistia returning to Moldova" movement and continue to squeeze sanctions onto Russia. But also offer them a way out at all times.

 

[OldSolduer]

Russia wants a bunch of NATO territory but only wants open war with individual states - so they will keep picking at dominos. However they are conducting sabotage and assassination inside the West and will until we wake up that we are at war with them...

We have been at war with Russia, the USSR previously, since 1945. The only thing that stop was the actual fighting. The espionage and subterfuge never stopped.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Best way to fight Russia is arm the snot out of the Ukraine's, then the other border states. Start a "Tranistia returning to Moldova" movement and continue to squeeze sanctions onto Russia. But also offer them a way out at all times.

Add in regime change in Iran. That would take alot of wind from their sails. Put in a government that allows the west to station troops within Iran - bam - major major problems/challenges for Russia.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Add in regime change in Iran. That would take alot of wind from their sails. Put in a government that allows the west to station troops within Iran - bam - major major problems/challenges for Russia.

I think that short 'to do' list just covered about $1tn in proposed investment with a doubtful ROI, which has been the pattern since the 90s pretty much

 

[Czech_pivo]

I think that short 'to do' list just covered about $1tn in proposed investment with a doubtful ROI, which has been the pattern since the 90s pretty much

I think that we need to get both McDonald's and Coca Cola onside, say tax-free status and exclusive Iran only rights for 20yrs? Get them onside and my level of confidence that Iran flips triples.

 

[daftandbarmy]

I think that we need to get both McDonald's and Coca Cola onside, say tax-free status and exclusive Iran only rights for 20yrs? Get them onside and my level of confidence that Iran flips triples.

Or, even better and more effectively...

 

[KevinB]

Or, even better and more effectively...

Get armed moderate women in Iran, and wham…

 

[daftandbarmy]

Get armed moderate women in Iran, and wham…

The SOF Chaps would be knife fighting over that duty 'behind the lines'

 

[MilEME09]

Frankly I am convinced that if a Trump administration does pull out of NATO, I'd give it 4 years and Russia attacks the Baltics, hungary would vote against invoking article 5, and the whole alliance either crumbles or unites.

 

[Remius]

Frankly I am convinced that if a Trump administration does pull out of NATO, I'd give it 4 years and Russia attacks the Baltics, hungary would vote against invoking article 5, and the whole alliance either crumbles or unites.

Some are thinking we could see a new eastern bloc alliance form out of that mess.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Frankly I am convinced that if a Trump administration does pull out of NATO, I'd give it 4 years and Russia attacks the Baltics, hungary would vote against invoking article 5, and the whole alliance either crumbles or unites.

If the US pulls out of NATO, 100% chance that Poland gets Nukes and would not be afraid of using them on Moscow - there is 0% chance that the Poles would ever - ever - go back under Russian or German hegemony.

 

[Kirkhill]

Some are thinking we could see a new eastern bloc alliance form out of that mess.

I think that alliance already exists.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Frankly I am convinced that if a Trump administration does pull out of NATO, I'd give it 4 years and Russia attacks the Baltics, hungary would vote against invoking article 5, and the whole alliance either crumbles or unites.

The Hungarians suffer from the 'Serbian' syndrome - illusions of grandeur of times long ago. They have beefs with almost all of their neighbours - Slovaks, Rumanians, Ukrainians. The Poles/Czechs won't allow Hungarian incursions into Slovakia, the Romanians are now able to deal with the Hungarians on their own and if Ukraine is independent, they can handle them as well.
They have a stagnant economy and population and haven't made any real friends over the years. They had a population the same as the Czechs in 1990 - about 10.3 million and in 2023 they had 9.59 million and the Czechs 10.9 million. They are going no where fast or slow for that matter.

 

[Cloud Cover]

It might be prudent to start thinking along the lines that NATO is done once Trump is in office.

 

[GR66]

It might be prudent to start thinking along the lines that NATO is done once Trump is in office.

The real solution is for the rest of NATO to wake up and realize that NATO ≠ USA. Plan for a European defence of Europe with the USA able to assist if/when required rather than sitting back and counting on an American defence of Europe with the rest of NATO assisting with the minimum they can possibly get away with.

 

[MilEME09]

The real solution is for the rest of NATO to wake up and realize that NATO ≠ USA. Plan for a European defence of Europe with the USA able to assist if/when required rather than sitting back and counting on an American defence of Europe with the rest of NATO assisting with the minimum they can possibly get away with.

Pretty much, we also need to get out of the mind set of operating as multinational battlegroups, and instead acting as part of a multi national division or corp. Meaning we need to bring all our own pieces of the puzzle, not just the 3/4 solution.

 

[Cloud Cover]

For the next 4 years minimum, it would be foolish for Europe to think that they can rely on the USA even “if required”. They need to plan harder. Just my 0.02 but I think the MAGA is going to take itself out of Europe not just to face China (and apparently Mexico), but also to give Putin less to worry about.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

The real solution is for the rest of NATO to wake up and realize that NATO ≠ USA. Plan for a European defence of Europe with the USA able to assist if/when required rather than sitting back and counting on an American defence of Europe with the rest of NATO assisting with the minimum they can possibly get away with.

Haven't the Europeans, or at least France or Germany being talking about that for years? Probably the reason the idea has stalled is that the rest of Europe doesn't particularity like the idea of the French and/or Germans being in charge.