The War in Ukraine

[KevinB]

Not 100% on Tom's take there -- China has actual started to cut off Russian direct access to UAV's, as they are getting fairly embarrassed about the ~60% of export components in Russian UAS that are from them.
I don't know enough about the Ukrainian UAS situation to comment on the claim that China is cutting Ukraine off.

 

[Skysix]

From Ukraine War, 27 September 2024: Part 1

AIR/MISSILE WAR

After running at least three major UAV strikes on three different ammo depots in Russia – which, according to different estimates, might have destroyed up to 80,000 tons of artillery ammunition, rockets and missiles – Ukraine took a few days off in this regards. Obviously, the output of the UAV industry is still not sufficient to keep the rate of such attacks at the necessary levels.

Which reminds me of something I intended to cover already the last weekend, but did not manage to do for lack of time. Namely, RUMINT has it that – sometimes the last week – the People’s Republic of China imposed strict limitations on export of UAV-related equipment and spares to Ukraine (while at the same time reinforcing its exports of contraband to Russia). Accordingly, the Chinese de-facto cut off the export of crucial parts for Ukrainian UAVs. RUMINT also has it, this promptly resulted in a major problem with production of UAVs and – especially – FPVs in Ukraine. And that it’s going to take months to solve..

Looks like the Ukrainian diaspora and friends will have to do their own sanction avoidance

 

[Skysix]

This writer (team?) has an absolutely genius way of cutting to the quik

Amazon.com : The Darth Putin Guide to Being a Master Strategist: 13 Rules on How to Think, Act, Dress & Date Like a Master Strategist

 

[Skysix]

I can't decide if this an educational info-op aimed at the US public by the JFKSWCS to make them realise they are already at war non-kinetically with certain state actors, or a PsyOps recruiting video.

Must be the latter, because: reasons.
(Posse Comitatus)

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Not 100% on Tom's take there -- China has actual started to cut off Russian direct access to UAV's, as they are getting fairly embarrassed about the ~60% of export components in Russian UAS that are from them.
I don't know enough about the Ukrainian UAS situation to comment on the claim that China is cutting Ukraine off.

I like his stuff on Ukraine, but disagree with him completely on Gaza.

 

[Kirkhill]

Interesting articles on Israel.

Got me to wondering.

Israel has been fighting off the hordes for 76 years. And its still there.

Are the Ukrainians any less motivated than the Israelis?

Israel has proved it has the most impressive military in the world

The astonishing strike at the heart of Hezbollah’s terrorist organisation has proved the IDF is a formidable fighting force

www.telegraph.co.uk

Israel has exposed the lie at the heart of Starmer and Biden’s foreign policy

Jerusalem’s bold strike at the heart of terror should bring shame to Western states still in thrall to false peace

www.telegraph.co.uk

Will the Ukrainians still be perturbing the Kremlin and the White House 76 years from now?

 

[Skysix]

Not if this Moldovan has the same attitude as the average Ukraininan

 

[Skysix]

If they can launch about 8k LED display drones as a swarm controlled by a single laptop, what could they do with a large military drone swarm or 20.

China’s Naval Mothership For Aerial Drones Looks To Be Operational

The unusual ship is purpose-built to support simulated hostile drone swarms and other unmanned threats during training and tests.

www.twz.com

The west is way behind and currently outclassed. Simply does not have the VSHORAD/SHORAD capacity to defeat that sort of battlefield swarm. Yet (I hope). And even less capability and magazine depth of missiles etc for large (over 128) medium range drone swarms

 

[brihard]

If they can launch about 8k LED display drones as a swarm controlled by a single laptop, what could they do with a large military drone swarm or 20.

China’s Naval Mothership For Aerial Drones Looks To Be Operational

The unusual ship is purpose-built to support simulated hostile drone swarms and other unmanned threats during training and tests.

www.twz.com

The west is way behind and currently outclassed. Simply does not have the VSHORAD/SHORAD capacity to defeat that sort of battlefield swarm. Yet (I hope). And even less capability and magazine depth of missiles etc for large (over 128) medium range drone swarms

This in part is why it’s so critical to develop air defense laser technology that can cycle quickly. Such drones are easy kills; they’re necessarily light and inherently fragile. But if a company can afford and program a drone swarm for a fireworks show, a nation state can afford one for swarming a naval task group transiting a choke point.

 

[KevinB]

This in part is why it’s so critical to develop air defense laser technology that can cycle quickly. Such drones are easy kills; they’re necessarily light and inherently fragile. But if a company can afford and program a drone swarm for a fireworks show, a nation state can afford one for swarming a naval task group transiting a choke point.

Or another nations seat of government…

 

[KevinB]

Interesting articles on Israel.

Got me to wondering.

Israel has been fighting off the hordes for 76 years. And its still there.

Are the Ukrainians any less motivated than the Israelis?


Will the Ukrainians still be perturbing the Kremlin and the White House 76 years from now?

Entirely different situations.

1) Israel has been supported by the US Government with equipment to deter their enemies. Ukraine hasn’t had the same degree of support to the relative scale.

2) Israeli enemies in the region have never been a global superpower, and have limited means to conduct conventional attacks against Israel (at least in the last 45 years).

 

[Good2Golf]

Informative breakdown of UKR’s use of its newer developed missile drones:

 

[Skysix]

Is this the next version of Senator?

 

[dimsum]

This in part is why it’s so critical to develop air defense laser technology that can cycle quickly. Such drones are easy kills; they’re necessarily light and inherently fragile. But if a company can afford and program a drone swarm for a fireworks show, a nation state can afford one for swarming a naval task group transiting a choke point.

I wonder when the Karens who are against air shows because “they instill PTSD in folks who have survived air strikes” will do the same about LED drone swarms.

 

[Maxman1]

Is this the next version of Senator?

Looks like a poor man's J-LTV.

 

[Skysix]

125 drones launched by Ukraine in one night. 67 at a single ammo dump with no hits. Without any Russian laser VSHORAD.

Cheap, quickly produced mass will be critical for swarms to be a viable tactic. 3 million drones of all types per year (production capacity) in Ukraine seriously outpaces the rest of NATO combined.

The USAF Rapid Dragon C17 program has potential: use a package with 4 escorted C17's dropping from safe-ish airspace each with 1 EW jamming platform, 1 ISR platform, 5 penetration aid platforms (broadcasting signal returns of 'whatever') 3 HARM missiles and the remaining 35 being 'effectors' of various types all launched at once with multiple 360 degree approach simultaneous TOT converging higher level deliberately 'accidentally' visible and low level stealthy/NOE tracks would give a decent chance of a hard target well behind the FEBA being successfully deconstructed with extreme prejudice even with AD systems capable of tracking 200 targets simultaneously.

 

[Skysix]

I love that company name. The sword forged from the shards of Narsil - Anduril, Flame Of The West. It is also nice to see that some still read books (Tolkien). Although based on my ridiculously long run on sentence above, I need to read more.

 

[suffolkowner]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1841035702634758296

Bidens aversion to escalation or just bleeding Russia out?
25% left of towed artillery

 

[Skysix]

"Bradleys have been destroyed, of course, but the survival rate for the occupants is high. In one soldier’s case, he had 7 Bradleys in 8 months and none of them were totaled. One survived 7 drone hits. Even if they aren’t totalled they can still be lost if they can’t be recovered."

So Bradleys have saved this soldier at least 13 times already. And how many of these old Bradleys are at the Sierra (and other) depots? Seems like it would save the taxpayer money to ship a thousand or so to Ukraine rather than pay to demil and scrap them.

 

[GK .Dundas]

Anyone remember the mantra "The Bradley is a death trap".
I love how the Russians crow about knocking out western vehicles . The majority of which are mission killed certainly , rarely destroyed.
And the majority of their crews are still alive many of them still able to fight.
Tell me can say the same about Russian vehicles?... I'll wait.