The War in Ukraine

[KevinB]

How they would use them operationally is well understood; what isn't clear are the strategic/political circumstances that would result in them being used.

It is actually in their published doctrine, not sure if the current doctrine on that is OS currently, but there have been OS versions available of older ones.

Lots of people have opinions, but the Russians don't have a declared policy for tactical nuclear weapons use like they do for their strategic weapons.

See above. I’ll see if I can dig up an OS version.

To use a phrase coined by one American researcher, it's a "threat that leaves something to chance."



I agree, but it's up to the Russians to decide if they believe that our threats are credible.

Agreed.

 

[KevinB]

But do they have a proper reserve system or is it just a list of former soldiers who did their mandatory service years ago?

I’m not sure, specifics of the NK forces was never in my wheelhouse, so other than OS reports I don’t know.
Here is an older article. It is not as current for force strength, but I doubt much has changed but for that.

PC-1510-101-96 - Chapter 4 - Military Forces

 

[Rudburg]

It is actually in their published doctrine, not sure if the current doctrine on that is OS currently, but there have been OS versions available of older ones.

See above. I’ll see if I can dig up an OS version.

Agreed.

The stated Russian policy can be found here: https://www.mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/international_safety/disarmament/1434131/?lang=en

Short version, the policy is implicitly focused on strategic nuclear use and talks mainly about deterrence and deterrence failure. Tactical weapons are not really discussed.

There was an announced change to this a few weeks ago but the Russians haven't updated their website yet. Putin proposes new rules for Russia using nuclear weapons

EDIT - I neglected to add the caveat that this could all be Russian bullshit; it should be treated with some caution.

The General Staff has discussed tactical usage and nuclear targeting for many years; quite a bit is available OS, but a key point is that they usually recognize that they don't control the political process that would lead to nuclear release, so some things are often assumed away.

 

[Da_man]

Surprised this hasn't been posted yet but it seems a former canadian soldier along with a former US marine and a former 75th Ranger Regiment operator were killed in Bryansk region of russia. Reported from russian FSB but credible from photographic evidence.
No ID on the canadian yet. RIP.

 

[ueo]

Moscow has already been struck. It is demonstrably not a red-line that triggers a nuclear response.

How about the holy dacha?

 

[RangerRay]

The UAE and Turkey, with friends like them who needs enemies ?

And Hungary.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Surprised this hasn't been posted yet but it seems a former canadian soldier along with a former US marine and a former 75th Ranger Regiment operator were killed in Bryansk region of russia. Reported from russian FSB but credible from photographic evidence.
No ID on the canadian yet. RIP.

A CDN and a pair of Americans killed in Bryansk? Can you provide a news link on this information?

EDIT - G&M is posting an article on this but I can't see past the paywall

 

[Da_man]

A CDN and a pair of Americans killed in Bryansk? Can you provide a news link on this information?

EDIT - G&M is posting an article on this but I can't see past the paywall

Ex-US Marine Reportedly Killed in Russia’s Bryansk Region: What We Know So Far

Russian media reported that 41-year-old former US Marine Corey John Nawrocki was killed alongside Ukrainian operatives attempting to enter the Bryansk region.

www.kyivpost.com

It's all over reddit/telegram with pictures that I won't share here.

 

[Rifleman62]

Murdered after capture?

 

[Rifleman62]

Loaded 6 days ago. At the end some interesting comments re US election.

North Korean troops will run out after nine days in Russian 'meat grinder'​

 

[Da_man]

Murdered after capture?

Looked more combat related than execution but I wouldn't put it past them.

 

[MilEME09]

Can you imagine for moment yourself as NK's troop in Ukraine?
You been forcefully send thousands mile away to fight and could be killed for foreign unknown to you country and their elite. On top of that you wont see any paycheck cause that money will been send to your government.
How much motivation you'll have?

plenty when according to south korean intelligence they all have families and if they don't preform, then their families will be punished

 

[KevinB]

plenty when according to south korean intelligence they all have families and if they don't preform, then their families will be punished

Plus more food on the rather meager RuAF menu than in NK…

 

[CBH99]

Now that seems like a good target.

Talk about taking away their ability to continue a ground war! It would be akin to taking out the USAF's "Boneyard" in a way...except, you know, it's in Russia and for tanks...

Can you imagine for moment yourself as NK's troop in Ukraine?
You been forcefully send thousands mile away to fight and could be killed for foreign unknown to you country and their elite. On top of that you wont see any paycheck cause that money will been send to your government.
How much motivation you'll have?

I imagine they might actually start out with a high degree of motivation.

I'm sure they've been told a narrative that highlights them as being chosen because they are better than their average counterparts in different units, undergo whatever training they are doing in Russia motivated by the narrative that they are sharpening their skills so they can wreak havoc on their enemies, and are being told inaccurate casualty counts on either side to prop up their hopes they'll return home with some amazing war stories for their friends & families, not to mention the great honour they'll bestow upon their Supreme leader.

All the while I'm sure the Russian side is making the Ukranians look like dumb slobs, with 'trickles' of outdated kit coming in every few months.

It'll be interesting to really see how these NK troops perform, and how high their morale seems to be.

(I imagine after the first 2 days, their morale will be in the absolute gutter like everybody else stuck in a meat grinder producing roughly 1000 casualties a day on both sides. At 7000 troops that gives them about 6 days before their entire deployment is either dead or combat ineffective)

 

[Colin Parkinson]

There will be a North Korean version of this in a couple of months

 

[Skysix]

So now the the US has given its 'official blessing' (not that Ukraine actually needed it - effectively NK declared war on Ukraine no matter where NK troops are posted) to take out NK troops in Russia, I wonder how long until the SBU starts targeting transportation infrastructure in NK used to ship weapons to the coast for sending to Russia etc.

And I really hate the legalese wording the US used and the poor journalism that reported it. "No new restrictions on striking NK troops in Russia". So long range US weapons are sêtill not allowed.

 

[The Bread Guy]

EDIT - G&M is posting an article on this but I can't see past the paywall

Here's an archived link to the G&M piece. The Canadian Press has minimalist details ....

Global Affairs won't confirm reports Canadian dead in Russia was foreign fighter

OTTAWA - Global Affairs Canada says it is aware of the death of a Canadian citizen in Russia.

www.thecanadianpressnews.ca

... with this account from RUS state media from a few days ago (archived link to Russian version, text below is Chrome translation) ...

Four saboteurs killed during attempted invasion in Bryansk region​

MOSCOW, October 28. /TASS/. Four saboteurs were killed during an attempt to invade the Bryansk region. This was reported by the Public Relations Center (PRC) of the Russian FSB.

"On October 27, employees of the FSB Border Department for the Bryansk Region, together with units of the Russian Armed Forces and the Russian National Guard, prevented an attempt to violate the Russian State Border in the Klimovsky District by a sabotage and reconnaissance group," the Center for Public Relations reported.

"As a result of the clash, four saboteurs were eliminated, the remnants of the retreating group were hit by a missile and artillery strike and suffered losses," the FSB noted.

According to the special service, the destroyed members of the sabotage group are presumably foreign mercenaries. "The destroyed were found to have foreign weapons, equipment, means of communication, as well as personal items indicating their affiliation with third countries (the Canadian flag, a prayer book in Polish, a notebook with notes on tactical training in English)," the Center for Public Relations reported.

"A tattoo of the 2nd Battalion, 75th Ranger Regiment, Special Forces Reconnaissance Regiment of the US Army was found on the body of one of the killed," the FSB noted.

On October 27, the Governor of the Bryansk Region, Aleksandr Bogomaz, reported that in the area of the uninhabited settlement of Manev in the Klimovsky District, the border department of the FSB of Russia for the Bryansk Region, units of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the Russian National Guard prevented an attempt to cross the state border by an armed group of persons, and the enemy was hit with fire.

... along with this RUS state media version in English (archived link) ...

Western-made weapons captured from foreign fighters killed in Russia – FSB (VIDEO)

Several mercenaries eliminated during an incursion into Bryansk Region were apparently armed with anti-tank missiles and explosives
Source: The FSB

A sabotage group that attempted to infiltrate Russia’s Bryansk Region was heavily armed with Western-made weapons, according to footage shared by the Federal Security Service (FSB). The Russian agency earlier said that at least four foreign mercenaries fighting for Ukraine were killed in the unsuccessful attack.

On Monday, the FSB reported that border patrol and local armed forces had discovered an attempt by Kiev’s forces to cross the border in Klimovsk district, which borders Ukraine and Belarus. Faced with resistance and mounting casualties, the intruders were forced to retreat and were later targeted with artillery fire, officials said.

Four of the fighters killed were carrying foreign weapons and equipment, as well as personal items indicating links to “third countries,” such as a Canadian flag, a Polish prayer book, and a notepad containing tactics in English, the FSB said.

In a graphic follow-up video released on Tuesday, the agency showed three half-naked, tattoo-covered bodies of alleged mercenaries lying next to an arsenal of Western-made weapons, including what appeared to be more than a dozen Swedish-made AT4 portable anti-tank missile systems, Claymore anti-personnel mines, a light machine gun, grenades and explosive packages, as well as a large stockpile of small arms ammunition. The weapons were placed next to two large Canadian flags.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova earlier said that the fighters “neutralized” in Bryansk included US, Polish, and Canadian citizens. The Mash Telegram channel reported that the group consisted of up to 30 foreign fighters, including Polish, Swedish, Venezuelan, and UK nationals.

According to the FSB, the body of one of the fighters had a tattoo of an angel holding a rifle, with a banner reading ‘Ranger’ and ‘2d Bn’, apparently a reference to the 2nd Battalion of the US Army’s 75th Ranger Regiment. It is unclear whether the man actually served in the elite unit, which specializes in airborne assault, reconnaissance, and sabotage operations.

Russian officials have repeatedly called foreign mercenaries operating in the conflict zone a “legitimate target” for the military while accusing NATO of direct involvement in the hostilities.

... and this from RUS independent media

Russia’s FSB Says 4 ‘Saboteurs’ Killed in Attempted Border Incursion in Bryansk Region - The Moscow Times

Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) said Monday that its agents killed four “saboteurs” who tried to cross into the western Bryansk region from Ukraine. “FSB border guards, together with the units of Russia’s armed forces and the National Guard, thwarted an attempt to cross over the Russian...

www.themoscowtimes.com

To save you from the grisly video on RUS state media, here's some screen grabs of the Canadian flags allegedly seized ....


As always, usual caveats apply to RUS state media.

Late add: Here's a bit of detail from what looks like home-town media on the American reportedly killed.

Lansdale native, Marine veteran killed in action Sunday as volunteer fighter with Ukraine Army | Wissnow

Former USMC 1st Sgt. Corey John Nawrocki was killed during a recon and sabotage mission near Bryansk, Russia.

northpennnow.com

 

[Skysix]

Ukraine related (but not the war). With perseverance and ingenuity (plus some skills) and very little in the way of tools or purchased materials, from homeless to sheltered.

It will be hard for Russia to mold/beat out of Ukrainians, that level of independence and determination and make them peasant slaves again. Cossack's vs Serfs. (Time lapsed but still long video)