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The War in Ukraine

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The Bread Guy said:
And some arrests - and taking credit/claiming responsibility ....
www.sbs.com.au

Russia detains suspect over the assassination of top general, investigators say

Russia has detained a suspect in the killing of the head of the army's chemical weapons division, investigators said, a day after the general and his aide were killed by a blast in Moscow.
www.sbs.com.au www.sbs.com.au
www.abc.net.au

Ukraine takes responsibility for assassination of Russian general

Follow the latest headlines from ABC News, Australia's most trusted media source, with live events, audio and on-demand video from the national broadcaster.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au
Click to expand...
Follow-on assessment and video on the assassination of Lt.Gen Kirolov.

 
YZT580 said:
nor is it of any use. If the combatants chose to ignore it, what authority is going to step in, separate the two and assign blame and penalties?
Click to expand...
  1. Are you suggesting that we just don’t follow it, because some others might not follow it? I remember a similar argument against the Taliban.
  2. It is of use. If the enemy doesn’t think that you’ll follow the Laws of Armed Conflict, or treatment of POWs, why would they surrender? If you’re going to be tortured or killed (or both) if you surrender, then they won’t.
 
A multiple choice survey to provoke thought and more indepth evaluation of tbe various negotiation concepts floating around out there. None of which in my view can guarantee Russian or Ukrainian compliance.

Putin's reason for the war is: (choose as many as appropriate)

1) Ukrainians are traitorous subjects needing to be brought back under Russian control
2) Territorial addition
3) Access to resources (mineral, agricultural, human)
4) USSR 2.0 (buffer zone)
5) Fracturing the EU (restoring economic dependency)
6) Emasculating / splintering NATO
7) Forcing a new multipolar world order (spheres of influence)
8) Remaining in power in Russia ("stay together in face of external enemy")

If Putin achieves his desires how likely is he to honor any peace treaty and for how long?

If Ukraine exists in any independant form how likely is Russia to allow it to remain so?

With all that in mind, what is the actual strategic goal of a "peace treaty":
a) To Putin
b) To the Russian public
c) To Zelensky
d) To the Ukrainian public
e) To Trump
f) To the American public
g) To NATO politicians
h) To EU politicians

And given those motivations and strategic goals how long do you think it will be before there is a large scale kinetic conflict between the Allies (of the rule of law) and the Axis (of resistance). ["the west'/NATO/EU -vs- China/Russia/Iran (and proxies)/North Korea]

IMHO Putin's Russia's operational goal is obtaining total political control and military influence over a bordering buffer state - with the weakening of NATO/the EU/the rules based international order and the eventual creation of a multipolar world as his ultimate strategic goal. The theft of land and resources is merely a transient tactical objective serving as a stepping stone towards s multipolar world (even if China ends up dominating)
 
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dimsum said:
  1. Are you suggesting that we just don’t follow it, because some others might not follow it? I remember a similar argument against the Taliban.
  2. It is of use. If the enemy doesn’t think that you’ll follow the Laws of Armed Conflict, or treatment of POWs, why would they surrender? If you’re going to be tortured or killed (or both) if you surrender, then they won’t.
Click to expand...
I'm on your side with this, but if one belligerent's forces are chronic war criminals then legal reprisals are an option.

The problem with Russia is that their population is rife with criminals and their government doesn't give a shit when it comes to being publicly named and shamed or subjected to sanctions - so what's left to do unless you outright win the war and beat them into the ground like Nazi Germany or Japan - something not likely to happen in our lifetime.

🍻
 
dimsum said:
  1. Are you suggesting that we just don’t follow it, because some others might not follow it? I remember a similar argument against the Taliban.
  2. It is of use. If the enemy doesn’t think that you’ll follow the Laws of Armed Conflict, or treatment of POWs, why would they surrender? If you’re going to be tortured or killed (or both) if you surrender, then they won’t.
Click to expand...
It is of no practical use without enforcement. And if there is anything other than a defeat/unconditional surrender of Russia, none of the THOUSANDS of war crimes will ever be punished.

The very fact that we go 'oh that is just Russia doing Russian things" after even the most blatant violations is proof that "the West" values money and re-election more than the values they claim.

NATO has become an overaged semi-retired soldier hunched over a table in a Legion with his beer demanding tribute and recognition of his past deeds without the ability or desire to repeat them
 
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Skysix said:
It is of no practical use without enforcement. And if there is anything other than a defeat/unconditional surrender of Russia, none of the THOUSANDS of war crimes will ever be punished.

The very fact that we go 'oh that is just Russia doing Russian things" after even the most blatant violations is proof that "the West" values money and re-election more than the values they claim.

NATO has become an overaged semi-retired soldier hunched over a table in a Legion with his beer demanding tribute and recognition of his past deeds without the ability or desire to repeat them
Click to expand...

Still, there are some advantages to NATO's approach over other options...

1735003268411.png
 
Skysix said:
It is of no practical use without enforcement. And if there is anything other than a defeat/unconditional surrender of Russia, none of the THOUSANDS of war crimes will ever be punished.

The very fact that we go 'oh that is just Russia doing Russian things" after even the most blatant violations is proof that "the West" values money and re-election more than the values they claim.

NATO has become an overaged semi-retired soldier hunched over a table in a Legion with his beer demanding tribute and recognition of his past deeds without the ability or desire to repeat them
Click to expand...
thank you. Your reply/input is much better than anything I had in mind
 
Skysix said:
It is of no practical use without enforcement. And if there is anything other than a defeat/unconditional surrender of Russia, none of the THOUSANDS of war crimes will ever be punished.

The very fact that we go 'oh that is just Russia doing Russian things" after even the most blatant violations is proof that "the West" values money and re-election more than the values they claim.

NATO has become an overaged semi-retired soldier hunched over a table in a Legion with his beer demanding tribute and recognition of his past deeds without the ability or desire to repeat them
Click to expand...
NATO was designed as a collective defence effort against the Warsaw Pact. Not to take out the USSR. If it were, it had plenty of opportunity.

I sure as hell don’t want to be caught by people thinking that “Canada follows ‘Geneva Suggestions’, so they don’t feel the need to follow them either.”
 
FJAG said:
I'm on your side with this, but if one belligerent's forces are chronic war criminals then legal reprisals are an option.

The problem with Russia is that their population is rife with criminals and their government doesn't give a shit when it comes to being publicly named and shamed or subjected to sanctions - so what's left to do unless you outright win the war and beat them into the ground like Nazi Germany or Japan - something not likely to happen in our lifetime.

🍻
Click to expand...
I've learned over the past few years that there is all kinds of stuff we will see in our lifetimes that we never thought we would.

Interesting times...
 
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