The War in Ukraine

[Czech_pivo]

The best thing the Ukrainians could do is to bide their time until the Russians decide they have to stop these inspections to allow supply lines to flow and then do the same thing on a different set of targets, like ammo depots or factories.

Rail bridges over major rivers on the Trans-Siberian rail network!!

 

[HavokFour]

Excellent timing on this announcement, and absolutely impossible to stop with how decentralized Ukraine's drone industry has been since it's birth.

Ukraine to Make 10 Million Air, Land, Sea Drones a Year

At the forefront of combat drone technology and production, Ukraine’s UAVs account for 80% of battlefield engagements – and total number will soon grow significantly, says Kyiv.

www.kyivpost.com

 

[suffolkowner]

BDA so far based on partial satellite imagery from one base, and drone/witness video from the same base and two others:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1929432085548486793

6 Bears, 4 Backfires and a transport seem pretty definite so far. Video of smoke plumes from a distance suggest a couple Blackjacks potentially too, but too early to have any real confidence in that.

Fingers crossed there’s a good deal more to be seen.

10 is good 40 would have been better

 

[The Bread Guy]

The best thing the Ukrainians could do is to bide their time until the Russians decide they have to stop these inspections to allow supply lines to flow and then do the same thing on a different set of targets, like ammo depots or factories.

Or other targets that could degrade RUS's war-fighting powers - AND maybe nail a few Iranian bad guys as well, for friends who are OK with some Iranians becoming collateral damage?

Yelabuga drone factory - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

HESA Shahed 136 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

A bit deeper inland, to be sure, but hey, if they can (at least allegedly) nail targets in USSR 2.0's Far East ...

 

[HavokFour]

A massive wave of drones was just set loose on Crimea and the occupied territories to the south. Melitpol most notably is reported to have had it's power completely knocked out. Maybe preparation for the removal of a certain piece of architecture?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1929641637002592568

https://twitter.com/x/status/1929638659726127596

The talks today unsurprisingly didn't go anywhere today, and it appears the US is finally waking up to the fact that it's Russia just stalling.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1929611887911592358

 

[Czech_pivo]

A massive wave of drones was just set loose on Crimea and the occupied territories to the south. Melitpol most notably is reported to have had it's power completely knocked out. Maybe preparation for the removal of a certain piece of architecture?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1929641637002592568

https://twitter.com/x/status/1929638659726127596

The talks today unsurprisingly didn't go anywhere today, and it appears the US is finally waking up to the fact that it's Russia just stalling.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1929611887911592358

I’m still holding out hope for a river bridge or two along the Trans Siberian railway to get dropped

 

[brihard]

A huge wave of shitty drones on meh targets could be clutter to facilitate getting some more exquisite munitions through to worthy targets.

 

[Skysix]

$7 Billion in damages, and 34% of Russia's strategic bombers out of action according to the SBU. Can't wait until the satellite imagery of the aftermath is released.

34% of Russian strategic missile bombers at main airfields damaged in Ukrainian drone operation, SBU reports

The Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) reported that the June 1 “Spider Web” drone operation caused approximately $7 billion in damages and disabled 34% of cruise missile carriers in key Russian airbases.

kyivindependent.com

And to top off todays events.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1929246088680137106

Close, but... if you actually read the original press release not the media interpretations, 34% of the aircraft ON THE GROUND AT THE TARGETED AIRPORTS were damaged OR destroyed.

 

[Skysix]

How many tens of thousands of TEU's get into NATO countries without any inspection let alone enough of one to detect a "Q-ship". And we already know Iran had a 40' container holding 7 attack drones on angled launch rails ready to fire as soon as the roof is moved out of their way.

A container could sit in a yard for years before being activated thanks to lithium batteries and cell phones. Scanning EVERY conex crossing any NATO border (including internal like France/Germany or Canada/USA) would be a great start, but as mentioned, from a military asset protection viewpoint a combination of hardened shelters/buildings and CIWS like laser systems will be needed on a massive scale.

 

[Maxman1]

The thing is Russia has previously said that any attacks against its Strategic assets will be crossing a redline. Expect something massive from Russia in return.

How many red lines has Russia threatened, and then done nothing when it gets crossed?

 

[HavokFour]

Bridge season has begun.

Ukraine says it has struck bridge connecting Russia to Crimea with underwater explosives

The agency said it had used 1,100 kilograms of explosives which “severely damaged” the underwater pillars supporting the bridge.

Targeting the real important and hard to fix or replace bit this time as well.

 

[PrairieFella]

I wonder if it's enough to be rendered inoperable?

 

[Retired AF Guy]

How many red lines has Russia threatened, and then done nothing when it gets crossed?

About the same as President Obama.

 

[Good2Golf]

This time around, likely significant damage to the support structure of the main arches.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1929868629996093828

 

[Skysix]

Of note from SBU, "the FIRST explosive device".....

 

[SeaKingTacco]

I am not a bridgeologist.

Is this a big deal from an explosives placement point of view?

 

[HavokFour]

Of note from SBU, "the FIRST explosive device".....

The Telegrams I'm following seem to be indicating that there was a second explosion an hour ago, unconfirmed for now. They are saying at 3PM local the smoke generators for the bridge turned on and the sound of an explosion was heard shortly after. The SBU do love their holy trinities.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Of note from SBU, "the FIRST explosive device".....

Sounds like a party...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1929882892861116902

 

[Czech_pivo]

Sounds like a party...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1929882892861116902

Part of me is hoping that this is a case of, 'Oh Vladdy, look over here, keep looking over here while we do this other little thing thousands of miles in another direction that is much much more important.'

 

[PrairieFella]

Part of me is hoping that this is a case of, 'Oh Vladdy, look over here, keep looking over here while we do this other little thing thousands of miles in another direction that is much much more important.'

My God.

By the end of this war, the SBU will be teaching the amateurs at MI6 and the CIA how you properly commit espionage. The will of the Ukrainians to fight and to punch Russia in the nose despite this slog is so admirable.