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The War in Ukraine
- Thread starter Bruce Monkhouse
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Some complaints about the doom-saying in the “analytical community”, or the same people who predicted Kiev would fall in 3 weeks.
phillipspobrien.substack.com
Weekend Update #149: Breakthrough? What Breakthrough? Collapse? What Collapse?
Russia Attacks Civilians, Ukraine Attacks Strategic Industries; Pokrovsk Versus Oil Refineries--One Of These Is Strategic, The Other Not.
phillipspobrien.substack.com
Skysix
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Some more good news for Ukraine. The FSB (and Putin) is dismantling the military command structure. So more incompetence on the front line and at some point a shift in direction away from Ukraine to attack the FSB. Whether it is a civil war leading to a continued Federation or a collapse of the Federation and the emergence of a lot of independent nation states remains to be seen. As the Chinese proverb goes "It is better to be a dog in a time of peace than to be a human in a time of war" - I fondly remember dog food ...
HavokFour
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Two new threads by ChrisO.
Regarding Russian dead and missing. And a mention about recovery of remains being extremely for various reasons, including if they're in an area you claimed to have controlled but actually do not:
threadreaderapp.com
More on the recent rules imposed on Russian troops in occupied areas, they're not having a very good time:
threadreaderapp.com
Honestly sounds like if Prigozhin were alive today, his march to Moscow would have gone very differently (positively) if done right now.
Regarding Russian dead and missing. And a mention about recovery of remains being extremely for various reasons, including if they're in an area you claimed to have controlled but actually do not:
Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App
@ChrisO_wiki: 1/ At least 250 Russian soldiers a day are being declared missing or dead by the courts, equivalent to the declared daily losses of the Russian army at the front. Although at least 50,000 men...…
threadreaderapp.com
More on the recent rules imposed on Russian troops in occupied areas, they're not having a very good time:
Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App
@ChrisO_wiki: 1/ The constant threat of Ukrainian drone strikes and tougher restrictions imposed by the Russian army on troop movements in the rear now mean that Russian soldiers in occupied Ukraine live "almost lik...…
threadreaderapp.com
Honestly sounds like if Prigozhin were alive today, his march to Moscow would have gone very differently (positively) if done right now.
daftandbarmy
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Busy picking sides...
HavokFour
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Considering they sent an estimated 10-12k, that's significant. Doesn't even factor in wounded.
www.dw.com
Ukraine updates: Seoul says 2,000 North Korean troops killed – DW – 09/02/2025
South Korean intelligence estimates that some 2,000 North Korean soldiers sent to fight for Russia have been killed. Meanwhile, EU defense spending will hit a record this year. DW has more.
www.dw.com
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I wonder if the traditional ratio of wounded to dead still applies in this conflict? Even if its a 1:1 ratio of wounded to dead, that's still another 2,000 wounded in addition to the 2,000 dead.Considering they sent an estimated 10-12k, that's significant. Doesn't even factor in wounded.
Ukraine updates: Seoul says 2,000 North Korean troops killed – DW – 09/02/2025
South Korean intelligence estimates that some 2,000 North Korean soldiers sent to fight for Russia have been killed. Meanwhile, EU defense spending will hit a record this year. DW has more.
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High Russian casualty rates are forcing a change in tactics and a much heavier reliance on unmanned systems:
defence-blog.com
I wonder if the increased volume of unmanned systems in use by the Russians in the offensive will also force the Ukrainians to similarly reduce the density of their own offensive operations? Is this simply a temporary response to Russia's current manpower shortages or are we seeing a general reduction in force density in warfare as a result of the ubiquity of drones in the battlespace? Can we generate enough counter-UAS capability to allow us to still successfully mass forces the way we have in the past?
Russia adopts new infantry doctrine amid manpower strain
Russian forces are adopting a new infantry doctrine that places greater reliance on drones and robotic systems due to manpower challenges, according to an analysis by the DeepState OSINT project in cooperation with the Telegram channel Mannerheims son. The report said the Russian military is...
defence-blog.com
I wonder if the increased volume of unmanned systems in use by the Russians in the offensive will also force the Ukrainians to similarly reduce the density of their own offensive operations? Is this simply a temporary response to Russia's current manpower shortages or are we seeing a general reduction in force density in warfare as a result of the ubiquity of drones in the battlespace? Can we generate enough counter-UAS capability to allow us to still successfully mass forces the way we have in the past?
HavokFour
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No longer just for fancy light shows, fully autonomous swarms of combat drones are here.
AI-Powered Drone Swarms Have Now Entered the Battlefield
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Apparently the long wondered whereabouts of the Azerbaijani Migs that were undergoing maintenance overhaul in Ukraine at the start of the war has now been confirmed
KevinB
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Leaving the question of it’s Ukrainian or Azerbaijani pilots shooting at Russians in them…
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the Russians have really been trying to piss the Azeris off lately for some unknown reason
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Plenty of nations with MiG 29 pilots who'd be happy to be shooting at Russians.
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High Russian casualty rates are forcing a change in tactics and a much heavier reliance on unmanned systems:
Russia adopts new infantry doctrine amid manpower strain
Russian forces are adopting a new infantry doctrine that places greater reliance on drones and robotic systems due to manpower challenges, according to an analysis by the DeepState OSINT project in cooperation with the Telegram channel Mannerheims son. The report said the Russian military is...
I wonder if the increased volume of unmanned systems in use by the Russians in the offensive will also force the Ukrainians to similarly reduce the density of their own offensive operations? Is this simply a temporary response to Russia's current manpower shortages or are we seeing a general reduction in force density in warfare as a result of the ubiquity of drones in the battlespace? Can we generate enough counter-UAS capability to allow us to still successfully mass forces the way we have in the past?
Consider the number of countries with aging populations due to birth rates being below replacement rates. Many countries are short of people. Hence the current fad for importing bodies.
Nobody, the Chinese included, can afford 20th century human wave tactics.
The solution for the military is the same as for the civilians: automate to increase productivity.
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The Ukrainian company associated with the Flamingo FP5 and indirectly with Milanion has a new press release.
militarnyi.com
Flamingo Missiles Manufacturer Announces Development of FP-7 and FP-9 Ballistic Missiles, Air Defense Systems - Militarnyi
Ukrainian company Fire Point announced the development of its own FP-7 and FP-9 ballistic missiles, as well as air defense systems.
militarnyi.com
KevinB
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Colt CZ Group was in talks about setting up a factory in Ukraine, as Ukraine wants to standardize on a variant of the M4 Carbine.
Colt Canada under the previous Colt ownership had Europe as its AO, so given that CZ doesn't want to mess with success, I suspect it will a Colt Canada lead. However I suspect the end result will be a Colt Ukraine separate entity with some variant of a C8 as the standard issue individual weapon.
Quite frankly based on Ukrainian combat data, I would not be surprised to see an 11.5" barrel with suppressor, probably called the U8.
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Ukrainian Ghosts Unit Destroys Russia’s RT-70 Space Comms Hub for GLONASS in Crimea - Militarnyi
According to the intelligence report, kamikaze drones hit the Utes-T radar system, which is used for air traffic control.
militarnyi.com
More eyes poked out.
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