The War in Ukraine

[McG]

Someone is testing boundaries and seeing what they can gat away with.

Nato scrambles jets as Russian drones threaten Polish airspace in Ukraine attack

Russian attacks target western Ukrainian areas close to the border with Poland, a Nato country.

www.bbc.com

Need to send a message back that an inability to keep Russian attacks off NATO soil will generate an appropriate response for Russian attacks on NATO soil.

 

[Skysix]

Analysis of when the Crimean Beach Party will occur

 

[brihard]

Polish armed forces have confirmed drones over Poland, weapons deployed, and they’re looking for the ‘downed targets’.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1965593314716995891

 

[HavokFour]

Polish armed forces have confirmed drones over Poland, weapons deployed, and they’re looking for the ‘downed targets’.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1965593314716995891

Yeah, it doesn't sound like they can hold off shooting them down any longer. Reports of more on the way that are flying over Western Ukraine coming out of Belarus.

I'd say if this isn't intentional, someone in Russia is headed for a window for this massive screwup.

 

[dapaterson]

I'd say if this isn't intentional, someone in Russia is headed for a window for this massive screwup.

Even if intentional, the occasional window to silence deviations from the party line can be useful.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Yeah, it doesn't sound like they can hold off shooting them down any longer. Reports of more on the way that are flying over Western Ukraine coming out of Belarus.

I'd say if this isn't intentional, someone in Russia is headed for a window for this massive screwup.

Possible retaliation of Polands announcement on Tuesday that it’s closing its land border with Belarus on Thursday.

 

[KevinB]

Possible retaliation of Polands announcement on Tuesday that it’s closing its land border with Belarus on Thursday.

Poland will announce its closing Belarus’s land border with Russia as their response…

Anyone tracking flights out of Andrew’s tonight.

 

[Good2Golf]

This will get spicy if the Poles go Article 5…

Carolina Reaper spicy…

Last Poles I spoke to laughed when I asked about whether they would call on Art. 5. Several said, “We won’t ask for Article 5, we’ll say but one word so that people understand…Katyn…”

 

[Skysix]

However, only 3 of 19 drones were shot down with a 4th damaged. As Perun might say, that level of economic asymmetry is not sustainable. What is the total cost of all the NATO F16 ($27k an hour), F35's ($34k an hour), E3 ($66k an hour x 9) and whatever KC46/135 or weapons were used? Or the precautionary launching of valuable aircraft to prevent damage while parked on a ramp. A couple of million? Against 3.5 drones that cost Russia about $70k each? NATO is playing F1 catchup from 2 laps behind in a NASCAR Chevy. Nicole Kidman is going to lose out to Kelly McGillis, if Tom Cruise even comes home.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Poland will invoke Article 4 according to PM Tusk.

 

[KevinB]

Poland will invoke Article 4 according to PM Tusk.

Poland triggers NATO Article 4 after Russia's drone incursion

Polish authorities have recorded and tracked 19 crossings into Polish airspace by Russian drones.

www.euronews.com

 

[daftandbarmy]

19+ drones... that's no accident

Russia says it had no plans to target Poland as Nato condemns 'reckless' drone incursions​

• Prime Minister Donald Tusk says Poland is at its closest to open conflict since World War Two
• He says up to four of 19 Russian drones were shot down by Polish and Nato aircraft, marking the first time Russian drones have been shot down over the territory of a Nato country
• Poland's interior ministry says seven drones and the remains of an unidentified object have been found so far
• The key question is whether this was a deliberate act by the Kremlin to test Nato's response, writes security correspondent Frank Gardner
• The Kremlin says it won't comment. Earlier, a Russian diplomat in Poland rejected claims of drones in Polish airspace, state media reports
• The drones that entered Poland were part of the latest major aerial attack on Ukraine, where Russia launched 415 drones overnight - President Volodymyr Zelensky calls it an "extremely dangerous precedent for Europe"

Russia says it had no plans to target Poland as Nato condemns 'reckless' drone incursions - live updates

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Donald Tusk warns that Poland is at its closest to open conflict since World War Two.

www.bbc.com

 

[brihard]

19+ drones... that's no accident

Russia says it had no plans to target Poland as Nato condemns 'reckless' drone incursions​

• Prime Minister Donald Tusk says Poland is at its closest to open conflict since World War Two
• He says up to four of 19 Russian drones were shot down by Polish and Nato aircraft, marking the first time Russian drones have been shot down over the territory of a Nato country
• Poland's interior ministry says seven drones and the remains of an unidentified object have been found so far
• The key question is whether this was a deliberate act by the Kremlin to test Nato's response, writes security correspondent Frank Gardner
• The Kremlin says it won't comment. Earlier, a Russian diplomat in Poland rejected claims of drones in Polish airspace, state media reports
• The drones that entered Poland were part of the latest major aerial attack on Ukraine, where Russia launched 415 drones overnight - President Volodymyr Zelensky calls it an "extremely dangerous precedent for Europe"

Russia says it had no plans to target Poland as Nato condemns 'reckless' drone incursions - live updates

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Donald Tusk warns that Poland is at its closest to open conflict since World War Two.

www.bbc.com

Yeah, that’s a probe to see what NATO allies do.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Yeah, that’s a probe to see what NATO allies do.

Emboldened by a sympathetic US president...

 

[QV]

If Poland ever invoked Article 5, I wonder what Canada's response would be?

Since each member nation can determine it's level of effort with no specific obligation... what would that be for Canada, any guess?

 

[The Bread Guy]

Yeah, that’s a probe to see what NATO allies do.

C'mon, now - we all KNOW it's a false flag, right? Am I right? This, from RUS state media (archived link to non-RUS server here) ....

More at link.

 

[KevinB]

If Poland ever invoked Article 5, I wonder what Canada's response would be?

Since each member nation can determine it's level of effort with no specific obligation... what would that be for Canada, any guess?

Short term, probably the rest of a Bde to Latvia, with deployment of 6 pack of CF-18's on a permanent rotation, then add CANSOF elements.

Long term, your current PM seems to be fairly well grounded, and would understand what the limits on the CAF are currently and would need to push past 3.5% direct CAF spending, and well past 1.5% indirect

 

[brihard]

Short term, probably the rest of a Bde to Latvia, with deployment of 6 pack of CF-18's on a permanent rotation, then add CANSOF elements.

Long term, your current PM seems to be fairly well grounded, and would understand what the limits on the CAF are currently and would need to push past 3.5% direct CAF spending, and well past 1.5% indirect

Potentially RCN and RCAF contributions to counter-sanctions ops targeting Russia’s ‘black fleet’ of tankers?

 

[KevinB]

Potentially RCN and RCAF contributions to counter-sanctions ops targeting Russia’s ‘black fleet’ of tankers?

I believe the more kinetically minded and more equipped countries will take the lead on that.
As I suspect the shadow fleet will start seeing a lot more 'accidents' in the future, after all careless smoking on an oil tanker is hazardous
GROM are fairly well suited to clandestine ops, and the Pole's politically aren't shy from using force to make a point, National Caveats NONE...

IF Canada had the MQ-9's, P-8A's, F-35's, RCD's, Patrol Subs, and all the MRTT's now, I think that would be different -- but I don't see a CPF and CF-18's doing that very effectively, and than self divesting those fleets before the replacements come in.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

C'mon, now - we all KNOW it's a false flag, right? Am I right? This, from RUS state media (archived link to non-RUS server here) ....
View attachment 95647
More at link.

Poland is well acquainted with false flag events