The War in Ukraine

[Rifleman62]

I wonder what Canada's response would be?

Sent more parts and mechanics.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Poland is well acquainted with false flag events

I'll take obscure Polish border towns helping start WW2 for $400, Alex!

 

[daftandbarmy]

Short term, probably the rest of a Bde to Latvia, with deployment of 6 pack of CF-18's on a permanent rotation, then add CANSOF elements.

Long term, your current PM seems to be fairly well grounded, and would understand what the limits on the CAF are currently and would need to push past 3.5% direct CAF spending, and well past 1.5% indirect

I think the standard has already been set by previous leaders

 

[brihard]

I believe the more kinetically minded and more equipped countries will take the lead on that.
As I suspect the shadow fleet will start seeing a lot more 'accidents' in the future, after all careless smoking on an oil tanker is hazardous
GROM are fairly well suited to clandestine ops, and the Pole's politically aren't shy from using force to make a point, National Caveats NONE...

IF Canada had the MQ-9's, P-8A's, F-35's, RCD's, Patrol Subs, and all the MRTT's now, I think that would be different -- but I don't see a CPF and CF-18's doing that very effectively, and than self divesting those fleets before the replacements come in.

I don’t see us going kinetic on civilian tankers that can just as easily be boarded and seized.

 

[KevinB]

I don’t see us going kinetic on civilian tankers that can just as easily be boarded and seized.

Cdn’s no, others, well I’d not bet against, at least covertly.
Some nations do understand that Russian only understand force -

 

[brihard]

With some reporting now on where Russian drones have been found in Poland, there’s some wreckage not even remotely close to any flight path from Russia/Belarus and Ukraine, save for if launched from Kaliningrad which I’ve heard no claims of. So either Russia wilfully did this as a deliberate test/probe, or something went badly, badly wrong with the drones’ navigation.

 

[KevinB]

With some reporting now on where Russian drones have been found in Poland, there’s some wreckage not even remotely close to any flight path from Russia/Belarus and Ukraine, save for if launched from Kaliningrad which I’ve heard no claims of. So either Russia wilfully did this as a deliberate test/probe, or something went badly, badly wrong with the drones’ navigation.

Some of them went quite deep into Poland from Belarus, like Gdansk and further being tracked from Belarus...
None of the tracks seem to show Kaliningrad as a start point.

Now I suspect if Kaliningrad is a launch site, a lot of Poles might take matter into their own hands...

 

[HavokFour]

With some reporting now on where Russian drones have been found in Poland, there’s some wreckage not even remotely close to any flight path from Russia/Belarus and Ukraine, save for if launched from Kaliningrad which I’ve heard no claims of. So either Russia wilfully did this as a deliberate test/probe, or something went badly, badly wrong with the drones’ navigation.

There was also this.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1965819962104349181

EDIT: Map of where 12 have been found so far.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1965823063385321573

And the timing of is this is... something.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1965793800564933001

 

[The Bread Guy]

Well, THAT should help things .....

 

[brihard]

There was also this.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1965819962104349181

EDIT: Map of where 12 have been found so far.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1965823063385321573

Jeez. I would have expected sort of a cluster (or at least linear) reasonably near the border.

 

[Kirkhill]

19 out of 415 launches?

A 5% failure rate in Russian technology would not surprise me.
And the scatter would also suggest normal statistical error.

So it is not improbable that this was an "accident".

On the other hand this improbable accident has provided useful intelligence to Russia at little cost.

It seems to me that much of the assault on the west: militarily, economically, politically, socially, culturally and religiously, occurs within this probability zone.

Somewhere between plausibly deniable and a low grade fever.

 

[HavokFour]

Unconfirmed reports that some or possibly all the drones that flew into Poland may have been using Polish SIM cards in their routers.

Edit: Additional.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1965691535896252875

Jeez. I would have expected sort of a cluster (or at least linear) reasonably near the border.

Notice how they avoided the part of Southern Poland along the border with Ukraine that has a big buildup of forces.

 

[HavokFour]

Luckiest rabbits in Poland. The count is now 16 drones recovered, reportedly.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1965822275246080138