For the sake of a follow-up article, Stratfor describes a possible Russian deployment in Iraq.
I definitely think Russia would be in for more trouble if it moves into the Sunni triangle
and risk attacks from Sunni militia and other militant groups. I feel Russia is more interested
in the development of Iraqi oil industry than in American good will. But you need one for
the other. Attacks on Russian troops in Iraqi or on Russian interests abroad will only make
another enemy for Islamofascists.
Russia: Putin Considers Sending Troops to Iraq
July 16, 2004
www.stratfor.com
Summary
Moscow is considering a request by the Bush administration to send
Russian troops to Iraq or Afghanistan this fall, just before the U.S.
presidential election. The move would be of enormous benefit to
U.S. President George W. Bush and a risky venture for Russian President
Vladimir Putin, who faces his own Islamist insurgency in Chechnya and
public opposition to U.S. policy in Iraq. Torn between his desire to
support Bush and his need to address domestic concerns, Putin will d
elay his final decision to the eleventh hour.
Analysis
Moscow and Washington are quietly negotiating a request by
the Bush administration to send Russian troops to Iraq or
Afghanistan this fall, Russian government sources tell Stratfor.
The talks are intense, our contacts close to the U.S. State
Department say, and the timing is not insignificant. A Russian troop
lift to either country before the U.S. presidential election would give
U.S. President George W. Bush a powerful boost in the campaign.
Sources close to Russia's Security Council tell Stratfor that Russian
President Vladimir Putin has agreed to the request "in principle"
and has directed the Russian General Staff to work up a plan by the
end of the month. Before making a decision, however, Putin wants
to make sure all logistical and international legal questions are
resolved -- perhaps with United Nations involvement -- and he will not
move without a formal U.S. request. It is a tough decision for Putin,
who will carefully weigh the risks and rewards and likely make his decision at the last possible moment.
Stratfor sources in the Russian Energy and Industry Ministry also say the
Prime Minister's office has issued a directive to the ministry to prepare
a Russian "wish list" for Washington seeking some level of quid pro
quo, including steps to return Russian oil companies to Iraq and a
pproval of Russia's joining the World Trade Organization.
If a troop agreement is reached, the Bush administration would
enjoy not only a timely spike in the polls during the campaign s
eason, but also the strategic, long-term benefit of having a sizable
contingent -- as many as 40,000, Stratfor sources say -- of
Russian troops relieve beleaguered American forces and free
them up for regional purposes beyond Iraq. Getting a major
troop contribution from any country, particularly one that was
originally opposed to the war in Iraq, would be a boon for
Washington, which is starting to recognize the limits of its unilateral
approach. A Russian troop commitment could not only stifle the
development of a Paris-Berlin-Moscow alliance against U.S. policy
in the Middle East but also could prevent -- over the long term -- the
formation of a troika among Russia, China and India to counter U.S.
dominance.
And the Russian Army, although certainly not as formidable as it was
at the height of Soviet power, is a skillful and resolute ground force
seasoned by 10 years of fighting Chechen guerrillas (superb fighters
and mentors to Islamist insurgents worldwide). Formations considered
for the Russian deployment include three mechanized infantry divisions
and one airborne brigade, Russian military sources say. The current
general staff scenario has Russian troops spread across Iraq, but
Washington would likely want them concentrated in the Sunni Triangle
where the insurgency continues to grow. It is not even necessary for
the Russian troops to win militarily in Iraq; Washington would not
expect that. Tough street fighters, they could effectively tie down
and distract Iraqi insurgents while the Americans regroup for strategic
missions in the region.
Nevertheless, for Russian President Vladimir Putin, sending Russian
troops to Iraq poses far more risk than reward. For one thing, fighting
Islamist militants in Iraq would raise Russia's profile as a target for al
Qaeda and other jihadists far beyond the scale of Chechen guerrilla
activity. A flood of volunteers from a 25-million-strong Islamic
community in Russia and foreign Islamic nations-- angry with Russia's
major contribution to an Iraq war on Washington's behalf -- could turn
all the Russian North Caucasus, predominantly Muslim, into one vast
combat zone.
The move could also disrupt Russian society, which has opposed the
Iraqi war from the outset, and generate a meaningful challenge to
Putin's power. And while the Russian general staff believes it is possible
to deploy 40,000 Russian troops, it would definitely put a strain on
the Russian army, particularly given its ongoing commitment in Chechnya.
Stratfor sources also suggest that some Russian officers would be
unhappy with the deployment and might even refuse to go.
Given a move that would be serious high-stakes poker for Putin, why
would he do it? Betting on a Bush victory in November, Putin wants
Bush to maintain a positive attitude toward Russia in general and Putin
in particular during a second term, when Bush would be free to conduct
whatever foreign policy he wants to. Also, Putin's mission in life seems to
be to irrevocably link post-Communist Russia with the United
States -- economically, politically, militarily.
Meanwhile, as long as the Russian people -- who have been grudgingly
tolerant of Putin's pro-Western stratagem so far -- can remain patient
and relatively undisturbed, the risks in Putin's mind could be worth taking.
Someday, if he is slow and prudent with his policies, Putin envisions a
tipping point for Russia, when rising consumerism and ties to the West
will forever link Moscow's fate with Washington's. His hope may be that
sending Russian troops to Iraq would help forge that link.
However, Putin is aware that if he miscalculates the degree to which he
can test Russia's patience, having troops in Iraq could cause a huge
domestic backlash, cost him his power and return the nation to its
anti-American past.
