Tories still short of a majority, poll finds

[GAP]

Tories still short of a majority, poll finds
Parties' Positions Like 'World War I Trench Warfare'
CanWest News Service Thursday, July 12, 2007
Article Link

MONTREAL - As Canadians began to head off for summer vacation, they were still in no mood to grant Prime Minister Stephen Harper the kind of support that would translate into a majority government in another election, a new opinion poll suggested.

In the Environics Research Group poll, the Conservatives had 37% support; the Liberals 28; NDP 17; Greens 11 and Bloc Quebecois 7.

Party standings remained stagnant, said Derek Leebosh, a senior associate with Environics. He likened the parties' positions to "World War I trench warfare" where a metre of ground is gained one day only to be lost the next, with everyone mired in the mud.

While Mr. Harper's approval rating has slipped across the country to 48%, its lowest level since his election and the first time Environics has seen it below 50%, Liberal leader Stephane Dion hasn't been able to capitalize.

Only 16% of Canadians see him as the best choice for PM, compared with 36% for Mr. Harper and 20% for Mr. Layton.

In fact, Mr. Layton, who notched a three-point increase on that question since the last Environics poll, is the only federal party leader gaining ground at the moment.

Mr. Harper's decline in approval rating was sharpest in Saskatchewan and the Maritimes, where his unpopular stand on factoring resource revenues into the equalization equation has hurt him, Mr. Leebosh said.

But the Prime Minister has never managed to get the Tories consistently up into the low-40s, where they need to be to be sure of winning a majority, and "the longer you are in power, the longer you have to do something people don't like," the pollster said.

"Everything is almost exactly back to where it was before the
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[canadianblue]

Not really much of a surprise, if we had an election then the result would probably be either a Liberal minority or Conservative minority, with the NDP or Bloc holding the balance.

Besides I don't think Canadian's really want an election yet, and I wouldn't be surprised if we did wait till 2009 for the federal election.

 

[Ontario]

Conservitives all the way! Just hope they'd get a majority.

 

[canadianblue]

In my own twisted view of the world, I would much rather prefer a minority over a majority government. Simply because even with a majority government the majority usually aren't represented [as most majorities usually consist of less than 50%]. I'm hoping that Ontario goes with the MMP system, and hopefully the rest of the country follows suit.

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

In my own twisted view of the world, I would much rather prefer a minority over a majority government. Simply because even with a majority government the majority usually aren't represented [as most majorities usually consist of less than 50%]. I'm hoping that Ontario goes with the MMP system, and hopefully the rest of the country follows suit.

Hey, we almost agreed on something. 
 I personally like the slimmest of majorities so that it makes everyone in the party in power a little more important in the big scheme that seems to have slid to a very small decision base over the years. Failing that then the minority Govt.

 

[vonGarvin]

Besides I don't think Canadian's really want an election yet, and I wouldn't be surprised if we did wait till 2009 for the federal election.

If this really is the case, then Canadians are weak and spineless.  Think about it.  What do Canadians REALLY have to sacrifice at election time?  TEN MINUTES IN A FRICKING POLLING STATION!  This at a time when young Canadians, our future, are risking theirs RIGHT NOW AS YOU READ THIS in order to bring a little bit of good into the world by ridding that world of bad men, by helping others to help themselves and by just being good all-round Canadians.

I'm becoming disillusioned.  When is the Alien Invasion?

 

[canadianblue]

If this really is the case, then Canadians are weak and spineless.  Think about it.  What do Canadians REALLY have to sacrifice at election time?  TEN MINUTES IN A FRICKING POLLING STATION!  This at a time when young Canadians, our future, are risking theirs RIGHT NOW AS YOU READ THIS in order to bring a little bit of good into the world by ridding that world of bad men, by helping others to help themselves and by just being good all-round Canadians.

I'd agree with you that alot of people are becoming apathetic when it comes to politics, but in all honesty I can't really blame them. Look at all of the BS that goes on in the House of Commons, and in the end people just end up having a cynical view towards politics. Even during elections, lets look at how the results have become somewhat skewed.

In Alberta 35% of the population is currently not represented by anyone in that province because they didn't vote Conservative.

In the 1993, 1997, and 2000, federal elections on average close to 50% of the population of Ontario was not properly represented simply because of our current first past the post system. As well it usually only takes around 40% of the vote in order for a government to make decision's for the majority of the population. I myself am fairly left wing-progressive on the issues in case any of you didn't notice, but I'm sure that people both on the left and the right understand that we need to reform the democratic process. I think a few good first steps would be the following:

1. Adopt a PR or MMP electoral system, currently Ontario has a vote pending with regards to MMP. So in a provincial vote a voter has two ballots, one with the individual candidates in his/her riding, and a second with which party they prefer. In the provincial parliament, 70% of the seats are made up of individual candidates, while 30% are made up of people who are selected off a list, and top off a party in order to be representative of the popular vote. As well the presence of smaller parties should not be viewed as a hindrance to democracy, I myself am of the belief that throughout history we have plenty of examples of third parties affect change which regularly wouldn't have happened in a simple two party system. [Correct me if I made any mistakes writing this up]

2. Reform the senate, however instead of having a Triple E senate have the provincial governments choose the senators. The reason why I'm not choosing election is because usually the senate which acts as a house of the sober second thought is generally made up of those who have contributed to Canada whether it be intellectually, politically, through military service, business, etc. I view that having some people making criticisms of bills that aren't "poll watchers" can also have different insights into legislation and be productive when it comes to passing legislation. Have the provinces choose the senators instead of leaving the decision up to the PM, this will ensure that the senate is adequately representative of each province due to the decision making being in the hands of the premiers/provincial assemblies instead of the PM.

3. Recall Initiatives, if an MP is believed to be preforming poorly allow citizens of a riding the chance to recall that member in a by-election. However limit recall to once every ten years, so if an MP is elected in 2004, and recalled in 2006, assuming he wins in 2006 he can't be recalled in 2007. This in my own view will limit repetitive by-elections which could become a problem in such a system.

This is my own opinion of what could work in Canada. I haven't touched too much on direct democracy, because I'm unsure whether or not its feasible in Canada and would have to read more into it.

 

[canadianblue]

I found abit more interesting news with regards to the poll. In Quebec the Tories are second with 28%, the Bloc at first with 31%, the Liberals at 17%, and the NDP at 12%, while the Green Party was at 10%. Now depending on whether the Bloc continues the decline, we could see a surge of Conservative seats in Quebec, and possibly NDP seats in Montreal if the Bloc continues in this fashion. I hope that in the next election, we will see the Bloc Quebecois drop down into irrelevance. I'm fairly certain that the Bloc will be more irrelevant as time goes on due to the recent provincial election, and the low support for soveriegnty in the province.

http://erg.environics.net/media_room/default.asp?aID=640

 

[Kirkhill]

BQ CPC LPC NDP
Atlantic - 27 40

QC 31 28 17 12
Mtl 31 17 20 19
ROQ 31 36 15 7

ON 37 35 17
GTA 34 43 15
ROO 39 28 19

MB 51 24 22
SK 40 29 22
AB 57 15 14

BC 34 30 12
Vcr 36 33 12
ROBC 33 28 12

Well if I read these tea-leaves right:

In Atlantic Canada the Tories still trail the Liberals but Bill Casey, Danny Millions, Ronald MacDonald and the Atlantic Accord have only cost the Tories 2 points.  Not enough to make or break an election.  The Liberals have gained 5 but most of that came from the NDP.  Alexa McDonough would seem to be at more risk than Peter MacKay.


On the Prairies the Tories have taken a 6 point hit in Saskatchewan over the Resource Revenue Sharing but that still leaves them with an 11 point lead over the Liberals and the votes they lost are evenly split between the NDP and the Libs.  In Alberta they are down 2 points but still have a 42 point lead over the Liberals with the NDP poaching Liberal votes.  And in Manitoba they have gained 5 points to 51 generating a 27 point over the Libs with the Libs again losing support to the NDP.


In BC, for me the surprise is Greater Vancouver (very small sample though).  If this is right then Vancouver has got over David Emerson with a 7 point pick up for the Tories leaving them 3 points ahead of the Libs.  There the Libs are stealing votes from the NDP.


In Ontario the Libs have gained ground in the GTA from both the Tories and the Greens.  The Tories standings won't be affected much but the Green prospects will.  But if the Tories are losing ground inside the GTA to the Libs they are (by my calculations) gaining ground in the Rest of Ontario in order to get a net increase.  It looks to me as if outside the GTA the standings are:

Tories 39
Libs    28
NDP    19


And finally there is Quebec.  Using the same logic as used in Ontario it looks as if the Bloc is holding its support in Montreal but the Liberals are leaking support to both the Tories and the NDP.

In Montreal the standings are

BQ      31
Libs      20
NDP      19
Tories  17

Although the Tories are unlikely to gain any seats there it seems there is no launch platform for the Liberals while the BQ can't show any growth.  The NDP might actually secure a seat in Montreal in one of the anglo or allophone ridings.

Outside of Montreal it looks like this

Tories    36
Bloc      31
Libs      15
NDP        7

With the Liberals and the Bloc losing ground.  The Socialists will never play well in rural Quebec.

So to summarize

Tories gaining in Rural Quebec, Ontario and Manitoba.  Damaged but not significantly so in Atlantic Canada and Saskatchewan. 

Meanwhile the Liberals have done a masterful job of getting the electorate to confuse them with the NDP.  In the Atlantic and Toronto they are gaining ground, mostly at the expense of the NDP and the Greens while in Montreal, Vancouver and Manitoba they are losing ground to the NDP.

Jack's Party kind of nets out in the middle with gains and losses.

And to top it all off

Who do you like for PM?

Nationally

Harper  36
Dion      16

Layton  20

Nationally Harper has a 20 point lead over Dion who even trails Layton by 4.

While in Quebec

Harper  29
Dion      10

Layton    18
Duceppe  17

In Quebec Harper has a 19 point lead over Dion with Dion trailing both Layton and Duceppe.



If a general election were called, where leadership comes into play, I would put the money on a Tory majority.

With the By-Elections creating a mini-general election it will be interesting to see the results.  With a poor Liberal leader, a confused electorate and a well stuffed Tory war-chest while the Liberals are having trouble making ends meet it presents an opportunity for Harper to turn this into something of a winnable referendum on his performance to date.  That could have ramifications for the deployment.

Dion appears to be a disaster for the Liberals and the best thing that has happened to the Tories in years.  The only thing that is keeping Dion in play is the media's need to create a horse-race to sell papers.

 

[RangerRay]

I have to agree with Kirkhill's analysis.  Right now, there is no talk of an election, and people are not thinking about politics (summer and all that) at the moment, yet the Tories have a 9 point lead over the Liberals.  9 points is a big gap, which in itself, could lead to a majority depending on how the vote breaks down in individual ridings.  I would suspect that during an election, the Tories will pick up steam as they do during elections, and widen the gap by a couple more percentages.

Edit to add:  The Prime Minister's leadership numbers are also very telling.  That will also affect how people vote.  And I suspect the more people see Dion during the election, the more they will dislike him.

Also note Dion's numbers in Quebec, where voters are most familiar with him.  They know he's a dud.  He's no folksy "liddle guy from Shawinigan".

 

[Infantry_wannabe]

I like the idea of minority governments in theory too.

But for now, the only hope Canada will live up to its duty in Afghanistan is that the Conservatives win a majority in an upcoming election. The window is closing fast on that though. From what I understand Harper is indicating the decision about "extending" the mission will occur sometime early next year.

Now that he has announced any decision requires "consensus" based on a vote in Parliament, there is no other chance but a Conservative majority. I don't consider myself a Conservative. But I can't imagine Canada retreating from the battlefield in Afghanistan, to the dismay of the soldiers actually doing the fighting.

I am hoping the Conservatives get that majority, though I disagree with them on a number of serious issues, such as global warming. My reasoning? I don't know anyone who has died fighting global warming. I do know people who have died fighting the Taliban. To say now to them "Sorry, we weren't ready for your sacrifices," is absolutely shameful. The NDP, Liberals, Bloc and Canadian public should have known the risks when the move was made to Kandahar. That was the time to object, not now.

I never thought I'd say this, but

Go Harper.

 

[Pikache]

I think I like minority govt, but since there is no real 'right wing' party to off set BQ/Lib/NDP which lean pretty much to the left, I'd rather have a Conservative majority to actually have a functioning govt