Trudeau Popularity - or not. Nanos research

[Rudburg]

Interesting phrasing: "most disinformed".

Curious how that was judged. Implies they aren't just uninformed, but actively and provably "wrong".

Intrigued the pollster included 2-vaxxed amongst unvaxxed group. Makes sense, that would be me, and my views certainly align closer to unvaxxed than 3-vaxxed+.

Graves' twitter feed should be read with caution and considerable skepticism. He is a professional pollster and his data isn't made up. That said, he also has a reputation for sending out questionable or inflammatory threads, often on Friday nights, and deleting them a day or two later. He is very pro-Liberal, and there are often grounds to question his interpretation and presentation of the data.

As for his "disinformation" kick, that has something he has been raising for a couple of years now. This is from Ekos' website and explains how he draws his data. You can draw your own conclusions as to how well these questions identify voters who are truly "misinformed."

Description of disinformation index:

For this research, we tested four separate indicators of disinformation and constructed a disinformation index – a 12-point scale that measures how strongly respondents have bought into three pieces of disinformation and how strongly they reject one piece of correct information:

• Canada’s economic growth lags well behind the G7 average;
• Vaccine-related deaths are being concealed from the public;
• The right to bear arms is guaranteed in Canada’s constitution; and
• Climate change is caused by greenhouse gas emissions.

The index is constructed as follows:

• A respondent receives three points for every statement they rate as completely true (or completely false in the case of greenhouse gases causing climate change);
• A respondent receives two points for every statement they rate as mostly true (or mostly false in the case of greenhouse gases causing climate change); and
• A respondents receives one point for every statement they skip (in other words, every statement they are unable to correctly categorize as true or false); respondents do not receive a point for skipping the statement on economic growth.

 

[Remius]

Graves' twitter feed should be read with caution and considerable skepticism. He is a professional pollster and his data isn't made up. That said, he also has a reputation for sending out questionable or inflammatory threads, often on Friday nights, and deleting them a day or two later. He is very pro-Liberal, and there are often grounds to question his interpretation and presentation of the data.

As for his "disinformation" kick, that has something he has been raising for a couple of years now. This is from Ekos' website and explains how he draws his data. You can draw your own conclusions as to how well these questions identify voters who are truly "misinformed."

Description of disinformation index:

For this research, we tested four separate indicators of disinformation and constructed a disinformation index – a 12-point scale that measures how strongly respondents have bought into three pieces of disinformation and how strongly they reject one piece of correct information:

• Canada’s economic growth lags well behind the G7 average;
• Vaccine-related deaths are being concealed from the public;
• The right to bear arms is guaranteed in Canada’s constitution; and
• Climate change is caused by greenhouse gas emissions.

The index is constructed as follows:

• A respondent receives three points for every statement they rate as completely true (or completely false in the case of greenhouse gases causing climate change);
• A respondent receives two points for every statement they rate as mostly true (or mostly false in the case of greenhouse gases causing climate change); and
• A respondents receives one point for every statement they skip (in other words, every statement they are unable to correctly categorize as true or false); respondents do not receive a point for skipping the statement on economic growth.

That makes a bit more sense. 338 gives EKOS a B+ rating. So not as weighted as more accurate methodology polls.

 

[TacticalTea]

• Canada’s economic growth lags well behind the G7 average;
• Vaccine-related deaths are being concealed from the public;
• The right to bear arms is guaranteed in Canada’s constitution; and
• Climate change is caused by greenhouse gas emissions.

Interesting, thanks for the info!

So, only #3 is pants-on-fire false, but I would describe it as misinformation, not disinformation. It would result from confusing American and Canadian political discourse, not from any propaganda campaign I've seen.

#1 is a red herring. If you think Canada's economy is a shitshow, you may tend to express that, not knowing what the G7 average is (which comes off more as a Liberal talking point than some fundamental truth)

#2 is plausible. There were so many lies during the pandemic, it is realistic to think just one more lie would seem acceptable to a government that wants to maximize vaccination rates. It may even be a "responsible" lie, provided that the benefits far outweigh the risks.

#4 is false by omission insofar as it doesn't leave the door open for other causes. No one has convinced me that greenhouse emissions do not cause climate change, but it would be ludicrous to claim that nothing else could possibly factor in.

 

[Remius]

Welcome to 338Canada

338canada.com

Latest. Slight upticks for the CPC and LPC in seat counts. CPC stops its light decline and LPC continue its slight incline.

NDP tanking.

 

[TacticalTea]

Welcome to 338Canada

338canada.com

Latest. Slight upticks for the CPC and LPC in seat counts. CPC stops its light decline and LPC continue its slight incline.

NDP tanking.

Simulator says if Liberals drop another 2.5% and either CPC or Bloc take those points, the latter will form the Official Opposition once again.

 

[suffolkowner]

going to be hard for interest rates to come down when housing is a mess, without movement from the Fed and if inflation is still high. 30c increases in gas in 3 weeks is a problem

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Govt: Gotchu fam. Cuts CAF budget some more

Call me cynical but there is no way any govt would willingly cut any meaningful amount of taxes.

Imagine if part of our missing tax money was passed to the military budget? Approx $93 billion dollars that MacKenna lost and $60 million on ArriveScam? Those are just two of the financial malfeasance boondogle files this government has fumbled, is responsible for and tried to hide from the taxpayer.

I'm not looking forward to the sum of taxpayer dollars that have just up and disappeared under our dictator's watch, when the Conservatives do an audit. A lot of people got rich under sockboy's reign. Too bad it wasn't the taxpayer.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Yeah…unfortunately I took renewal right between the uprights this December past…
View attachment 84609

I'm glad I paid mine off when I retired in 13. Before trudeau came to power and blew everything up.

I love that .gif It poignantly shows trudeau's care for Canadians.

 

[dimsum]

Imagine if part of our missing tax money was passed to the military budget? Approx $93 billion dollars that MacKenna lost and $60 million on ArriveScam? Those are just two of the financial malfeasance boondogle files this government has fumbled, is responsible for and tried to hide from the taxpayer.

I'm not looking forward to the sum of taxpayer dollars that have just up and disappeared under our dictator's watch, when the Conservatives do an audit. A lot of people got rich under sockboy's reign. Too bad it wasn't the taxpayer.

1. I truly do hope that if the CPC gets into power, they do an audit.
2. The fact that the CPC has a decent chance to win the next election, plus um…we could put “F Trudeau” on billboards and not have folks knocking down your door, would suggest that JT isn’t a “dictator”.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

going to be hard for interest rates to come down when housing is a mess, without movement from the Fed and if inflation is still high. 30c increases in gas in 3 weeks is a problem

You will own nothing and you will be happy.

 

[CBH99]

Trudeau likely on his 'last stand' as leader of Liberal party: Political expert​

Summary
Trudeau likely to step down sometime to up/during this summer due to unpopularity. Wants to avoid being the leader of the Liberal Party who will likely face a massive loss much like the Progressive Conservatives in 1993 Federal Election.

Recent budget has been panned by the former Bank of Canada Governor, David Dodge, who predicted that it will hurt the economic and discourage business investment.

Servicing of the federal debt (estimated $54 B) now outstrips the money spend on health care.

Current generation is not better off than their parents due to high inflation, high housing costs and stagnant economy.

Current gov't is out of touch with ordinary Canadians. Sudden realization that Canadians are deeply concerned about inflation, lack of housing and high cost of housing.

Over regulation burden.

Capital gains tax will increase taxation burden on the middle class, small businesses.

Centralist Liberals have been retired/removed from the ranks and the activist (left of centre) have taken control of the party thereby not letting the party to move back to the centre.


Like many Canadians I foresee a rather bleak economic future due to the overspending policies of the current LPC which the next gov't (most likely CPC) who probably will:

• try to balance the budget
• reduce the PS and the number of cabinet ministers
• try to encourage and induce investment in the economy to promote growth
• temper any expectations of the public for a quick fix and most likely promote a message of short term pain for long term pain much like PM Chretien's message when he slashed gov't spending to balance the budget in the mid-1990s.

I think you are 100% right.



Just a few thoughts...

- I can't wait for Justin to step down as leader of the LPC. I hope Freeland leaves with him, but something tells me her insidious plans aren't quite finished yet...

- I can see him stepping down before the next election officially gets under way.

That way, the LPC's crushing defeat technically won't be on his watch & even though everybody knows he's the one who has driven the party to where it is now - he can, and most likely will, put their failure in the upcoming election on some issue rather than take responsibility for any of it


- I do believe that part of the spending in the new budget is specifically meant to screw over the CPC when they do take government.

The LPC has been in power for 9 years now, and not once have they ever given a shit about ordinary Canadians or doing what's in their best interest. They have, however, completely ignored the concerns and protests of the people as they've pursued their own agenda which is completely at odds with the values or objectives most Canadians identify with.

Almost $60B in new spending right before an election indicates to me they are fully aware of what a shitty job they've done thus far, and are trying to bribe Canadians to vote for them with their own tax dollars.

And also, they want to make the economic picture as bleak as possible for any incoming government so their efforts will have to be focused on fixing the economic problems they've inherited, rather than progressing the country in the ways the people voted for.


______________________________


Thankfully their mismanagement of the country has resulted in problems so grave and so widespread, and have been so blatantly illegal and ill-intended that their plan is pretty easily observable to anybody who chooses to observe it, to such an extent Canadians can't be fooled into believing anybody else but the LPC is responsible.

If they think Canadians will mistakenly start blaming the CPC for the federal budget cuts they'll have to do if they form government, they are mistaken. Everybody knows who's responsible for the government train wreck that is currently Ottawa, and it certainty wasn't Pierre's fault.



My unsolicited 2 cents anyway

 

[Fishbone Jones]

1. I truly do hope that if the CPC gets into power, they do an audit.
2. The fact that the CPC has a decent chance to win the next election, plus um…we could put “F Trudeau” on billboards and not have folks knocking down your door, would suggest that JT isn’t a “dictator”.

#1 - Check
#2 - your opinion, not mine.

 

[CBH99]

2. The fact that the CPC has a decent chance to win the next election, plus um…we could put “F Trudeau” on billboards and not have folks knocking down your door, would suggest that JT isn’t a “dictator”.

Or...

The fact that we could put "F Trudeau" signage up on billboards and not have folks knocking down our doors could suggest that JT is so deeply disliked by the masses that even the authorities would be like "Well...I mean, it's not factually wrong. Let's leave it up for a bit."



(I joke, I joke)

 

[Fishbone Jones]

I think you are 100% right.



Just a few thoughts...

- I can't wait for Justin to step down as leader of the LPC. I hope Freeland leaves with him, but something tells me her insidious plans aren't quite finished yet...

- I can see him stepping down before the next election officially gets under way.

That way, the LPC's crushing defeat technically won't be on his watch & even though everybody knows he's the one who has driven the party to where it is now - he can, and most likely will, put their failure in the upcoming election on some issue rather than take responsibility for any of it


- I do believe that part of the spending in the new budget is specifically meant to screw over the CPC when they do take government.

The LPC has been in power for 9 years now, and not once have they ever given a shit about ordinary Canadians or doing what's in their best interest. They have, however, completely ignored the concerns and protests of the people as they've pursued their own agenda which is completely at odds with the values or objectives most Canadians identify with.

Almost $60B in new spending right before an election indicates to me they are fully aware of what a shitty job they've done thus far, and are trying to bribe Canadians to vote for them with their own tax dollars.

And also, they want to make the economic picture as bleak as possible for any incoming government so their efforts will have to be focused on fixing the economic problems they've inherited, rather than progressing the country in the ways the people voted for.


______________________________


Thankfully their mismanagement of the country has resulted in problems so grave and so widespread, and have been so blatantly illegal and ill-intended that their plan is pretty easily observable to anybody who chooses to observe it, to such an extent Canadians can't be fooled into believing anybody else but the LPC is responsible.

If they think Canadians will mistakenly start blaming the CPC for the federal budget cuts they'll have to do if they form government, they are mistaken. Everybody knows who's responsible for the government train wreck that is currently Ottawa, and it certainty wasn't Pierre's fault.



My unsolicited 2 cents anyway

I think his abdication will come during the summer recess. That'll give the transition team time to find their feet before parliament resumes.
I think, from what I've been seeing, LeBlanc will be annointed as replacement.
I think both trudeau and freeland already have exit plans.
I think trudeau will be attached to some international organization that follows his current tenants. Maybe climate movement like John Kerry or a public spokesman for WEF. They can use his oration and acting as a public face.
I think freeland might go full time to WEF. She's already on the Board of Trustees and her name has been kicked around as a replacement for Schwab, when he becomes compost. I can't see her doing to much in public. People don't like when trudeau speaks. When freeland speaks, it's nails on a blackboard, head bobbing, fidgety oration akin to listening to seagulls fight over french fries at the beach. She needs a captive audience, like the one at Davos.

All guesses.

 

[Remius]

1. I truly do hope that if the CPC gets into power, they do an audit.

One would hope. I suspect a lot of immediate not thought out decisions though in some cases.

1. The fact that the CPC has a decent chance to win the next election, plus um…we could put “F Trudeau” on billboards and not have folks knocking down your door, would suggest that JT isn’t a “dictator”.

Agreed. The fact that we have elections and representative government seems to be a clear indicator that we are not in a dictatorship.

 

[Remius]

I think his abdication will come during the summer recess. That'll give the transition team time to find their feet before parliament resumes.

It would have to be for sure.

I think, from what I've been seeing, LeBlanc will be annointed as replacement.

Possible but I see a short interim first.

I think both trudeau and freeland already have exit plans.

Yes.

I think trudeau will be attached to some international organization that follows his current tenants. Maybe climate movement like John Kerry or a public spokesman for WEF. They can use his oration and acting as a public face.

He’ll go dormant for a while before that.

I think freeland might go full time to WEF. She's already on the Board of Trustees and her name has been kicked around as a replacement for Schwab, when he becomes compost. I can't see her doing to much in public. People don't like when trudeau speaks. When freeland speaks, it's nails on a blackboard, head bobbing, fidgety oration akin to listening to seagulls fight over french fries at the beach. She needs a captive audience, like the one at Davos.

She’ll get something to be sure.

All guesses.

Not bad ones.

My guesses (assuming he leaves).

1. Trudeau steps down. He’ll immediately pass the reigns to the deputy PM (that way she’ll get to be PM while they determine a new leader, and I too thinks she has an exit plan).
2. Short leadership race. Dominique Leblanc will likely be the PMs choice. Probably not publicly but behind the scenes. I could see a two horse race between him and Anand.
3. New leader picked. CF announces she will not run next election but within the timeframe that would avoid a by-election. The new leader appoints her to something jammy.

If he doesn’t leave, it will be a very much uphill battle.

 

[brihard]

I think his abdication will come during the summer recess. That'll give the transition team time to find their feet before parliament resumes.
I think, from what I've been seeing, LeBlanc will be annointed as replacement.
I think both trudeau and freeland already have exit plans.
I think trudeau will be attached to some international organization that follows his current tenants. Maybe climate movement like John Kerry or a public spokesman for WEF. They can use his oration and acting as a public face.
I think freeland might go full time to WEF. She's already on the Board of Trustees and her name has been kicked around as a replacement for Schwab, when he becomes compost. I can't see her doing to much in public. People don't like when trudeau speaks. When freeland speaks, it's nails on a blackboard, head bobbing, fidgety oration akin to listening to seagulls fight over french fries at the beach. She needs a captive audience, like the one at Davos.

All guesses.

I don’t know what JT/CF will do, but I wouldn’t be surprised if you’re right about a summer resignation if the budget doesn’t save his polling. LeBlanc would be a strong contender on a short list for sure. I’ll be curious to see who else throws their name in. Anyone running now or soon knows they’re running to lead the opposition, likely through a full term CPC majority mandate, and that they’ll have that one full term to try to rebuild the LPC and to make a convincing showing in 202…9 I think?

 

[dimsum]

Agreed. The fact that we have elections and representative government seems to be a clear indicator that we are not in a dictatorship.

At least elections in the “not-Russian” sense.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

It would have to be for sure.

Possible but I see a short interim first.

Yes.

He’ll go dormant for a while before that.

She’ll get something to be sure.

Not bad ones.

My guesses (assuming he leaves).

1. Trudeau steps down. He’ll immediately pass the reigns to the deputy PM (that way she’ll get to be PM while they determine a new leader, and I too thinks she has an exit plan).
2. Short leadership race. Dominique Leblanc will likely be the PMs choice. Probably not publicly but behind the scenes. I could see a two horse race between him and Anand.
3. New leader picked. CF announces she will not run next election but within the timeframe that would avoid a by-election. The new leader appoints her to something jammy.

If he doesn’t leave, it will be a very much uphill battle.

All good points.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

I don’t know what JT/CF will do, but I wouldn’t be surprised if you’re right about a summer resignation if the budget doesn’t save his polling. LeBlanc would be a strong contender on a short list for sure. I’ll be curious to see who else throws their name in. Anyone running now or soon knows they’re running to lead the opposition, likely through a full term CPC majority mandate, and that they’ll have that one full term to try to rebuild the LPC and to make a convincing showing in 202…9 I think?

The budget could accelerate things. We know the CPC will vote against it 100%. Same with the Bloc, according to their own statements. Perhaps there's enough bad blood within the NDP, that people like Angus, with no skin left in the game, vote against it just to spite Singh. Budgets are confidence votes. If it gets voted down, we're into an election almost immediately.

An option, that I'm sure, would suit millions of Canadians.

Truth be told, I want the election to be called for the official date. I don't want to pay pensions for one term back benches, like my liberal MP. If they are any good, they'll be re-elected and get their pensions. If they are Sacko's and lose, they don't deserve it after one term of disappointing performance.