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Trudeau Popularity - or not (various polling, etc.)

Humphrey Bogart said:
@The Bread Guy

I love this graph:

View attachment 90125

I love it because it shows the natural lifespan of a Government in Canada.

The trend line for the Libs is slowly trending downward over time with briefs spikes upward. No bump is ever as large as the previous one though.

Political fortune can pivot on a dime though.

Libs were polling low 20s just prior to 2015 election and then spikes to Majority territory just prior to election. They weren't polling well in the lead up to 2021 either.

Libs may be in the dumps but they probably have a Trump Card to play before the election and a bump to 30% isn't out of the question.

Unlikely but stranger things have happened.
Click to expand...

The interesting part was the 1/3+ loss of support (45% \ 25%) just one year into the first mandate, from 2016-2017…the first big round of ‘Sunny isn’t so sunny’ ways. Then Cons lead Libs by 10-7% for last half of the first mandate and we see the resulting minority quagmire in 2019 with the ‘don’t worry, the Chinese interference didn’t reeeeally change anything, honest, but you don’t need to see the deets on that…’ and then the ‘thanks for the $600million unneeded election with yet more Chinese influence’ hot garbage and the start of the end was clearly developing…
 
Humphrey Bogart said:
... Political fortune can pivot on a dime though ... Libs may be in the dumps but they probably have a Trump Card to play before the election and a bump to 30% isn't out of the question. Unlikely but stranger things have happened.
Click to expand...
Never say never, and "events" for sure, but it's a pretty deep hole they have to dig themselves out of if we believe the consensus of the polling. It will be interesting to watch.
 
Good2Golf said:
The interesting part was the 1/3+ loss of support (45% \ 25%) just one year into the first mandate, from 2016-2017…the first big round of ‘Sunny isn’t so sunny’ ways. Then Cons lead Libs by 10-7% for last half of the first mandate and we see the resulting minority quagmire in 2019 with the ‘don’t worry, the Chinese interference didn’t reeeeally change anything, honest, but you don’t need to see the deets on that…’ and then the ‘thanks for the $600million unneeded election with yet more Chinese influence’ hot garbage and the start of the end was clearly developing…
Click to expand...
My question is what sort of pork & barrel promises does the current Govt have in the holster to achieve the necessary bump?

The Libs basically survived since 2019 by printing money and handing it put to everyone. CERB and CEBA were largely exercises in vote purchasing. Ditto Trudeau victory in 2015. The Harper Govt wanted to practice fiscal prudence and. Austerity and Trudeau was basically a rejection of that.
 
Humphrey Bogart said:
My question is what sort of pork & barrel promises does the current Govt have in the holster to achieve the necessary bump?
Click to expand...
UBI?
Expanded pharmacare?
Decriminalization of personal use quantities of hard drugs?
Student loan forgiveness to a certain level?
"Fix" the immigration system?
More carbon tax with associated rebates?
Stronger economic ties to the Asia/Pacific region to wean us off American dependence?
More gun bans?
An end to the monarchy?
More autonomy for Québec?
 
Latest (last?) poll and projection for 2024.

27 Dec 24 Nanos poll: CPC 47 Lib 21 NDP 17 GPC 5 BQ 8 PPC 3

29 Dec 24 Seat projections: CPC 232 BQ 45 Lib 39 NDP 25 GPC 2
 
Humphrey Bogart said:
My question is what sort of pork & barrel promises does the current Govt have in the holster to achieve the necessary bump?

The Libs basically survived since 2019 by printing money and handing it put to everyone. CERB and CEBA were largely exercises in vote purchasing. Ditto Trudeau victory in 2015. The Harper Govt wanted to practice fiscal prudence and. Austerity and Trudeau was basically a rejection of that.
Click to expand...
I think you’re right, HB. The Kurgan appears to be the inspiration for the Liberals at this point…and it will cost us (honest, productive taxpayers) dearly for many years to come.
1735658938714.gif
 
The Bread Guy said:
Never say never, and "events" for sure, but it's a pretty deep hole they have to dig themselves out of if we believe the consensus of the polling. It will be interesting to watch.
Click to expand...
My gut tells me Trudeau thinks he can do a repeat of Dear Old Dad's 1979/1980 time in Opposition, limit Cons to a minority and then have another run at a majority. If you remember, the NDP helped Trudeau Senior with that one as well.
 
Trudeau is a professional politician and he had an education in politics that no amount of University, etc could buy.

He got a front row seat watching his old man play kingmaker for two decades. What a training environment!

He has an innate talent for politics and is gifted at it, tbh.
 
Humphrey Bogart said:
My gut tells me Trudeau thinks he can do a repeat of Dear Old Dad's 1979/1980 time in Opposition, limit Cons to a minority and then have another run at a majority. If you remember, the NDP helped Trudeau Senior with that one as well.
Click to expand...
Not sure he can hold them to a minority. I think another leader could but even then that might be a tall order. Also the NDP might help them defeat a minority but the BQ (which wasn’t a factor in 79/80) will likely not play that game if it can get concessions from the CPC. And my spider senses tells me the NDP will be flat broke and unable to mount any campaign anytime soon after an election.
 
Humphrey Bogart said:
My gut tells me Trudeau thinks he can do a repeat of Dear Old Dad's 1979/1980 time in Opposition, limit Cons to a minority and then have another run at a majority. If you remember, the NDP helped Trudeau Senior with that one as well.
Click to expand...
I suspect you’re right regarding Trudeau’s mindset. However the amount of nationwide dislike if not outright hatred for him is probably even greater than what Daddy Trudeau faced during his time in power. I think it extremely unlikely a CPC minority government would occur (it’s Poilievre’s to lose). But, hey, who knows what goes on in Justin’s mind as he puts on his multi-coloured socks.
 
Rifleman62 said:
Pierre Poilievre

NEWLY-RELEASED MOVIEWACKOS: the weird, wild, woke & wonderful world of the people running our country. Chip in here if things have gotten too weird for you:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1874093150555324895
Click to expand...

I think that video could have done without the theatrics and pageantry. Then again we're at a point where the current Liberal supports won't be swayed by silly things like stats, missing money, and ethical violations. So it's more for the lol's
 
Haggis said:
UBI?
Expanded pharmacare?
Decriminalization of personal use quantities of hard drugs?
Student loan forgiveness to a certain level?
"Fix" the immigration system?
More carbon tax with associated rebates?
Stronger economic ties to the Asia/Pacific region to wean us off American dependence?
More gun bans?
An end to the monarchy?
More autonomy for Québec?
Click to expand...
All of that. He will promise all of that.
 
Cloud Cover said:
All of that. He will promise all of that.
Click to expand...
With what money? We all have seen that the budget does not, in fact, balance itself; especially when our productivity and GDP are in the shitter.

Printing more money is not going to save him this time. That may have worked in 2019, maybe 2021 when we were still in the throes of COVID hysteria, but not today.
 
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