Trudeau Popularity - or not (various polling, etc.)

[Haggis]

I agree the lead is shockingly large, if it were an electoral result it would be a blow out. But with the right leader and a willingness to admit their mistakes and walk back some legislation they have enacted they could at least, maybe, hold the CPC to a minority.

The biggest pieces of legislation that are pissing Canadians off are also signature planks in their platform and hard election promises. Walking them back may do the LPC more harm than good.

 

[Brad Sallows]

The biggest pieces of legislation that are pissing Canadians off are also signature planks in their platform and hard election promises.

"I thought other people were going to pay for those! Not me!"

 

[YZT580]

The biggest pieces of legislation that are pissing Canadians off are also signature planks in their platform and hard election promises. Walking them back may do the LPC more harm than good.

and the NDP are linked to all of them by word and by vote. There best bet would be to identify a particular issue that is controversial and stand up against the liberals and hope that voters remember their taking a stand on principals when they go to the polls. Otherwise, we will end up with two rumps parties and the Bloc as the official opposition

 

[Kirkhill]

and the NDP are linked to all of them by word and by vote. There best bet would be to identify a particular issue that is controversial and stand up against the liberals and hope that voters remember their taking a stand on principals when they go to the polls. Otherwise, we will end up with two rumps parties and the Bloc as the official opposition

Take another look at those graphs.

The NDP have their fan club. 18%. The Bloc, Greens and CPC have their fans as well.

The election is being decided by the 68% deciding to go blue or red. They started off dead even at 34% each. The Tories are now at 40% and the Libs at 28%. The swing is 6% of the population.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

Take another look at those graphs.

The NDP have their fan club. 18%. The Bloc, Greens and CPC have their fans as well.

The election is being decided by the 68% deciding to go blue or red. They started off dead even at 34% each. The Tories are now at 40% and the Libs at 28%. The swing is 6% of the population.

It may keep swinging towards 50%, if the Liberals don’t sort their shit out…

 

[Good2Golf]

Otherwise, we will end up with two rumps parties and the Bloc as the official opposition

Honestly, BQ as official opposition would send an unavoidable/unignorable message to the natural ruling party…I’d be okay with that.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

Honestly, BQ as official opposition would send an unavoidable/unignorable message to the natural ruling party…I’d be okay with that.

It worked for the Conservatives…

 

[TacticalTea]

Honestly, BQ as official opposition would send an unavoidable/unignorable message to the natural ruling party…I’d be okay with that.

Relative to current polling:

I can see Bloc getting 40 seats if they track upwards along with their provincial counterpart. Liberals would have to lose a further 12 seats in each of Toronto and Montreal, and gain virtually none anywhere else in the country.

Bloc official opposition to a Conservative government is less likely than under a Liberal government because the blue parties fight for the same turf.

 

[Good2Golf]

Relative to current polling:

I can see Bloc getting 40 seats if they track upwards along with their provincial counterpart. Liberals would have to lose a further 12 seats in each of Toronto and Montreal, and gain virtually none anywhere else in the country.

Bloc official opposition to a Conservative government is less likely than under a Liberal government because the blue parties fight for the same turf.

In Quebec, the LPC and BQ are substantially overlapped statistically.

LPC seats in Toronto or anywhere else in the ROC don’t matter to the BQ’s success in Quebec.

 

[TacticalTea]

In Quebec, the LPC and BQ are substantially overlapped statistically.

I don't see how that is relevant. It's purely happenstance and has no bearing on what I said.

LPC is concentrated in Montreal, where only a few BQ seats are possible (in Laval especially). Most seats there are banana-republic liberal strongholds, with some NDP and a few CPC opportunities as well.

Support for the Bloc is most likely in the suburban and regional areas, likewise for Conservatives.

View attachment 80846
LPC seats in Toronto or anywhere else in the ROC don’t matter to the BQ’s success in Quebec.

The topic was "Bloc as official opposition". In that context, LPC's success outside Quebec does matter.

 

[ModlrMike]

I've said this before: The Liberals need to take Quebec to form the government, the Conservatives do not. They proved as much in both 2008 and 2011.

 

[Remius]

I agree with you, but around wants too and is also not tainted by the Trudeau brand ?

But those are some beautiful numbers! I hope the CPC can keep their foot on the gas and not stuff into their mouths'.

There are a couple of less than tainted names I could see. I suspect though that it would take a coup at this point and that would be messy. I doubt that JT steps away without a fight. The window of time to get all of that done is rapidly closing.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Bloc official opposition to a Conservative government is less likely than under a Liberal government because the blue parties fight for the same turf.

Not likely. There aren't very many QC ridings in which CPC is competitive. When BQ does well, it is not at the CPC's expense. Also, the BQ typical platform/demands don't exactly align with the CPC's. The BQ leans socialist, which is where QC sits in the Canadian spectrum.

 

[The Bread Guy]

The biggest pieces of legislation that are pissing Canadians off are also signature planks in their platform and hard election promises. Walking them back may do the LPC more harm than good.

... with the right leader and a willingness to admit their mistakes and walk back some legislation they have enacted they could at least, maybe, hold the CPC to a minority.

Even some hard-core Team Red commentators have been saying that the "Brain Trust" still has a chance of regaining some ground by doing just that, but they've been saying it in a way that shows none of their former colleagues can hear this over the sound of shooting themselves in the feet.

 

[TacticalTea]

Not likely. There aren't very many QC ridings in which CPC is competitive. When BQ does well, it is not at the CPC's expense. Also, the BQ typical platform/demands don't exactly align with the CPC's. The BQ leans socialist, which is where QC sits in the Canadian spectrum.

Who knows, perhaps this is the last election anyone will ever have to bother themselves with that question...

 

[mariomike]

Statutorily, the current government could go as long as October 2025 before needing to have an election.

By that time, PMJT would be fourth ( or fifth, by a few days? ) of twenty-three prime ministers of Canada by time in office, if my count is correct?

List of prime ministers of Canada by time in office - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[Lumber]

By that time, PMJT would be fourth ( or fifth, by a few days? ) of twenty-three prime ministers of Canada by time in office, if my count is correct?

List of prime ministers of Canada by time in office - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

The good ones do tend to last the longest.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

The good ones do tend to last the longest.

Sure.

Let’s go with that.

 

[CBH99]

Just thought I would post this here. Not entirely sure I understand things well enough to have a solid opinion on this, but my hunch is this stinks of Trudeau corruption...

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Just thought I would post this here. Not entirely sure I understand things well enough to have a solid opinion on this, but my hunch is this stinks of Trudeau corruption...

I like his pic. Especially for someone so fixated on nazis.