Turkey - Kurdistan (Superthread)

[Bigmac]

Turkish officials have recently voiced their concerns over the fate of the oil-rich Iraqi province of Kirkuk. Turkey fears that if Iraqi Kurds annex Kirkuk into their autonomous region, they will eventually want to carve out an independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq and thus stoke separatist desires in Turkey's own sizable Kurdish population.

      This could be another reason for buildup of US forces in Iraq. If Turkey gets involved it will certainly add a new dynamic to the instabilty of the area and more headaches for the US government. For full story read link below.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/IA24Ak02.html

 

[GAP]

This is something Turkey is really afraid of and will not hesitate to use force to stop any kind of Kurdish State.

Iran, Iraq (largely toothless), Turkey and Syria all have a huge stake in this if a Kurdish state starts forming, as each of these countries have a large segment of Kurds.

 

[Kirkhill]

Iran also has to keep an eye on its back door if the Kurds ever get their act together.  There is another clump of them in the eastern mountains bordering Turkmenistan and Afghanistan.

Iran wouldn't be best pleased if the Kurds "reclaimed" the northern mountains, the Baluchis the eastern desert and coast and the Arabs the Shatt-al-Arab.  It wouldn't leave much room for the Persians.

The Kurds are in Red on the map below.

And here's the link:
http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/commonwealth/commonwealth_islamic_groups.jpg

 

[Bigmac]

The BBC has obtained evidence that Israelis have been giving military training to Kurds in northern Iraq.

      Maybe Turkey should be nervous? The Israeli involvement in training Kurd militia is widely disputed but makes perfect sense. Israel is concerned about the mounting threat of Iran's nuclear arms development. What better way to keep an eye on things than assist in the Kurds getting their own state. Train the Kurd militia and at the same time covertly operate in Iran. Brilliant plan or conspiracy theory?
      The protestors and supporters of a Kurdish state all have high stakes and it will be interesting how this plays out this year.
     
Remainder of article from Sep 06 BBC report is on link below.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5364982.stm

 

[Kirkhill]

The BBC has obtained evidence that Israelis have been giving military training to Kurds in northern Iraq.

A report on the BBC TV programme Newsnight showed Israeli experts in northern Iraq, drilling Kurdish militias in shooting techniques. ....

The revelation is set to cause enormous problems for the Kurds, not only in Iraq but also in the wider region. ....


The news will most probably increase tension between the Kurds and Iraq's Arab population, both Sunnis and Shias, reinforcing fears that the Kurds are pursuing a secessionist agenda.

This would be a serious blow to efforts for national reconciliation at a time when hundreds of Iraqis are killed every month in inter-communal violence.

Iraq's neighbours, too, will be outraged.

Iran and Syria, which have long accused the Kurds of allowing the Israelis to operate on Iraqi territory, will most likely demand an explanation from the government in Baghdad. ....

The BBC report will be like the smoking gun the Arab media has spent years looking for.

Ever since the US-led invasion of Iraq began over three years ago, Arab journalists have been speaking of Israelis operating inside the autonomous region of Kurdistan. ....

O Goody.  What a shitstorm we can "likely" create.  With any luck the Iraqis will never have any peace. 

BBC making news - not creating reporting it.  How many Arab reporters on the Neutral BBC payroll?  God help us all.

It doesn't have to be true to get a reaction - just look at the Danish Cartoon fiasco.

 

[Bigmac]

Iraqi Oil File Opened


Several indicators have surfaced recently that point to bringing the oil factor in Iraq back from the back burner to the forefront of the public eye. The first has been Ankara’s escalating drive to block the control of the northern Iraqi oil city of Kirkuk by the Iraqi Kurds, lest Kirkuk's lucrative oil would be used to fund a bid for secession from Iraq that could encourage separatist Kurdish guerrillas in Turkey herself.

The second indicator is Iraq’s push forward on oil developments with Iran and Kuwait to determine control in the future of the cross-border oil fields, according to the Kuwait Times. Cross-border oil fields were contested and have been a cause of friction poisoning Iraq’s relations with its eastern and southern neighbors.

A third indicator that the Iraqi oil file is being wide opened is the Iraqi - Syrian negotiations on the sidelines of the latest visit to Damascus by Iraqi President Jalal Talabani to reopen the oil pipeline between the northern Iraqi city of Kirkuk and the Syrian coastal town of Banyas on the Mediterranean. This pipeline was reopened in 1997 and drew U.S. disapproval; American air strikes damaged the Iraqi side of the pipeline at the start of the U.S.-led invasion. Since then Washington was reported to favor reopening a Kirkuk-Haifa oil pipeline via Jordan, which was shut down after the creation of Israel in 1948.

      If you think BBC are shite disturbing check out Middle East Online article that came out today.  Everyone seems to agree that the Kurds are paramount in a major powerplay. The rest of the article quoted is on link below but take it with a grain of salt.

http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=19265

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Would be a good reason to move a portion of the US military to Kurdish areas when they draw down, close enough to instantly react and will keep Turkey from doing anything foolish. As I said before, it's a shame the Turks and Kurds couldn't get their act together, that would make everyone in the region else nervous.

 

[Kirkhill]

I wonder what the map looks like with at US sponsored Turkey-Iraq-Kuwait-Jordan free trade zone.

 

[Bigmac]

Message On Kirkuk From Northern Iraq
Published: 1/29/2007

By Ferai Tinc

I don’t know if the Iraqi Kurds realize that nobody agrees with them that Kirkuk should be attached to the north. However, obviously, besides Iraqi nationalists of various ethnic and religious backgrounds, many countries are closely following developments on this issue. I hear many Iraqi say that if Kirkuk is attached to Kurdistan, there would be huge consequences, and that Turkey’s stance on the issue supports them in their negotiations with the Kurds. Of course, nobody expects or wants a military intervention from Turkey. However, people also attach importance to political and diplomatic efforts to ensure Iraq’s territorial integrity and say that Turkey’s position helps during the negotiations. Arab countries and Israel are saying that Iraq’s territorial integrity should be protected and steps which might sow instability in Kirkuk should be avoided. In such an atmosphere, I asked Safeen Dizayee, a Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) official responsible for foreign relations, how they’re planning to deal with the Kirkuk issue.

      They also mention in the article the possibility of Kirkuk becoming another Jerusalem in the area. Oh great, another holy land for all to fight over! Link below.

http://www.turkishpress.com/news.asp?id=160829

 

[Bigmac]

Iraq bans Turkish oil and meat 

1/31/2007  UPI 
BAGHDAD -- Iraq and Turkey are in a trade dispute over oil products and meat imports as tension between the neighboring countries continues.

The BBC reports oil products shipments from two southern Turkish cities into Iraq have been suspended over a dispute with the central Iraqi government over resigning contracts.

And, without any apparent reason, Iraq has banned red and white meat products imports from Turkey.

Turkey has begun amassing troops on its southern border shared with Iraq. It has threatened military action if the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region in Iraq's north secedes from Iraq. It also has made threats if Kurdistan is given too much control within a federal Iraq as well as if the oil city of Kirkuk, currently outside of the Kurdistan region, is incorporated.

      It looks as though things are beginning to boil over between Turkey and Iraq over Kurdistan. As I've said before this is one of the reasons I believe more US troops are being sent to Iraq. The rest of article on link below.

http://www.kurdmedia.com/news.asp?id=13978

 

[Bigmac]

      Well the situation is now at boiling point. The recent attack, supposedly by PKK, has prompted the strong potential of military action by Turkey against the Kurds in Northern Iraq. The US is caught in the middle as they need both the Kurds and Turks as allies. If the Turks invade Northern Iraq it will spark responses by both Syria and Iran who both have strong support for the Kurds.

Turkey's battle plan could threaten northern Iraq

POSTED: 0759 GMT (1559 HKT), May 25, 2007

ANKARA, Turkey (CNN) -- The war drums are getting louder in Turkey, and they can be heard next door in the Kurdish region of northern Iraq, and across the globe in Washington as well.

Many Turkish officials and citizens -- enraged by Tuesday's deadly bombing -- want the Turkish military to hit back at the Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK, the hard-line Kurdish separatist group thought by many in the government and on the street to have staged the blast and other militant actions.

At least six people died and more than 100 were injured in the rush hour bombing at an Ankara shopping district. (Full story)

Senior Turkish officers have said that operations against the PKK would require troops to cross into the Kurdish region of northern Iraq, which many PKK militants -- also long situated in southeastern Turkey -- have chosen as their base.

The PKK denies involvement in the Ankara attack, and a U.S. State Department spokesman cautions that the investigation into the attack is "ongoing."

However, the outrage in Turkey toward the PKK has been boiling over.

On Thursday, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that if the military were to request a retaliation, the parliament, which is dominated by Erdogan's AK party, would support it.

Turkey's army chief, Gen. Yasar Buyukanit, said recently his troops are ready to attack what he calls Kurdish terrorist camps in northern Iraq. And retired Turkish Gen. Edip Baser told CNN he believes an operation could be just weeks away.

As late as two weeks ago, there were an estimated 150,000 Turkish soldiers on or near the Turkish-Iraq border, and the PKK has stepped up cross-border attacks into the Kurdish region of Turkey now that snows have melted in the border mountains.

more on link: http://edition.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/europe/05/24/turkey.terror/

 

[Bigmac]

         Turkey has now let the US and Iraqi governments know that they are not letting the northern Iraq issue go. The US is in a tough position. I don't know if diplomacy is going to work in this situation. The Turkish people are pressuring their government to take action now.

Erdogan: Turkey, US and Iraq could carry out an operation against terrorist organization
Published: 5/30/2007 

  ANKARA - "Turkey, the United States and Iraq could carry out an operation against the separatist terrorist organization in northern Iraq," Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Tuesday.
In a televised interview with the private NTV News Channel, Prime Minister Erdogan said, "our expectations about terrorism is clear. We want all acts of the terrorist organization to come to an end. We expect the United States and Iraq to eradicate the terrorist organization`s camps in northern Iraq. We have already informed them on our expectations."

"When the United States says that they do not consider a unilateral operation right, this could mean that we can carry out an operation altogether. The third party here is Iraq. Turkey, the United States and Iraq could carry out an operation against the separatist terrorist organization in northern Iraq. We established the coordination mechanism for this," he said.

Upon a question about violation of Turkish air space by U.S. war planes on May 24th, Prime Minister Erdogan said, "Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs handed over a note to the United States earlier in the day. This note was a warning that such an event should not happen again."

Asked whether Turkey assured the United States not to carry out an operation against the terrorist organization PKK, Prime Minister Erdogan said, "we cannot make any concessions to this end."

Prime Minister Erdogan also denied claims that there was a difference of opinion between the government and the General Staff over Turkey`s policy on northern Iraq.

http://www.turkishpress.com/news.asp?id=178773&s=&i=&t=Erdogan:_Turkey,_US_and_Iraq_could_carry_out_an_operation_against_terrorist_organization

 

[Greymatters]

The Turks and Kurds have a long and violent history that isnt going to go away by having a few summit talks.

 

[nihilpavor]

Maybe the Joker is in the hand of the European Union. Turkey wants to join real bad and they are taking every steps required of them (from building new occidental style prison, changing the judicial system, implement solid human rights politics, etc. ) and that excludes many more aggressive behaviors. Should Sarkozy and other European leaders negate the membership of Turkey, particularly in a way perceived unfriendly or mean, this country could very well redirect its focus Eastward trying to augment its influence in a region that has enough players has it is. Without the EU restrictions, some bad habits could come back and maybe some extremists could seize the momentum caused by the hard felt rejection.

Of course, I'm not a Turkey specialist, grain of salt needed.

 

[Kirkhill]

On the other hand nihilpavor it might not be a bad thing if the secular sons of Ataturk were "encouraged" to "reestablish" "fraternal" ties with their old colonies.  That ultimately is what "really" p****s off the Wahabis.  The fact that their ancestors handed the keys to the Caliphate to a bunch of mercenary pagans, christians and mongols because they were too indolent to defend themselves.  The Turks were just the latest bunch of Johnny-come-latelies to claim the Caliphate and move the capital from places like Cairo, Damascus and Baghdad to Istanbul.

Then to top it all off the Turk Kemal, throws over the whole system and kills the Caliphate entirely.  If the Arabs and OBL have a real Bete-Noire it isn't anyone in the west. It has to be Kemal Ataturk.

Despite that I have to believe that, as in all empires, there remain sympathisers that fondly recall the good old days.  Perhaps the secular Turks can still find friends within the geographical territory claimed by the Muftis and Mullahs of Islam.

 

[nihilpavor]

What scares me isn't outside of Turkey, it's what's inside... The minute they'll feel rejected by Occident, the political spectrum in the country is likely to turn for the worst.

http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/article.aspx?id=809

 

[Kirkhill]

If Turkey "fails to hold" then they are going to have at least a 3-way fight in Anatolia amongst secular and islamic Turks as well as the Kurds.  In the east it will become a multi-party squabble that will include the Kurds and all those interesting tribes of the Caucasus that were squabbling amongst themselves when the USSR broke.  At that point all bets are off with tribal warfare being the norm from the Punjab to Istanbul and from Yemen to Chechenya - with continued spill over into the Balkans, the Horn of Africa and parts beyond.

 

[Bigmac]

Updates on the situation. It looks like the Turkish military is itching for a fight with PKK in Northern Iraq.

Turkish Troops Kill 2 Kurdish Rebels

AP) -- Soldiers killed two Kurdish militants in Turkey's rebellious southeast, where troops massed along the border threatened an incursion into Iraq.

Turkey's military has stepped up its campaign against separatist rebels who cross into country from bases in northern Iraq to stage attacks.

Sixteen guerrillas have been killed in the fighting this week, including the two killed in an overnight clash with soldiers near the town of Tunceli, the governor's office said.

The military also has been deploying troops on its border with Iraq, but says it is a routine precaution against rebel infiltration. The massing of troops, however, coincides with debate over whether to stage an incursion into Iraq to try to eradicate rebel bases there.

Turkey's military chief said Thursday his army was prepared to attack Kurdish guerrillas in a cross-border offensive and was awaiting government orders for an incursion, putting pressure on the government to support an offensive that risks straining ties with the United States.

Turkey last carried out a major incursion into Iraq to chase rebels of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, a decade ago.

http://www.aina.org/news/2007060193837.htm

Does Turkey Have Plans to Invade Iraq?
Turkish Prime Minister Won't Talk Strategy, but Troops Have Been Deployed to Border

By TERRY McCARTHY
May 31, 2007
   
    Just when it looked like things in Iraq couldn't get worse, a new threat is emerging -- from Turkey. And it's creating a huge headache for U.S. policymakers.

Impatient at continued attacks against Turkey by the Kurdish guerilla group PKK (Kurdish Workers' Party), whose members are based mostly in northern Iraq, Turkey has moved troops and tanks close to the border with Iraq. Iraqi newspapers have expressed concerns that Turkey may be planning to cross the border in pursuit of the PKK guerrillas.

http://www.abcnews.go.com/International/story?id=3232007&page=1

Buyukanit: Ready for PKK Strike

Published: 5/31/2007
 
ANKARA - Turkey's top general said Thursday the military was ready to stage a cross-border offensive to fight Kurdish terrorists in Iraq and that he already had sought government approval to mount military action.

Earlier Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has pledged his support for any military decision to stage an incursion into Iraq, said the army had not yet asked parliament for permission.

But Gen. Yasar Buyukanit said he had asked for approval during a news conference on April 12, when he said "an operation into Iraq is necessary."

"We have told both Turkey and the world on April 12 that as soldiers, we are ready," Buyukanit said Thursday.

Buyukanit's remarks appeared to put Erdogan's government under pressure to seek approval from parliament to send soldiers into Iraq to fight separatist Kurdish terrorists. The rebels have long used northern Iraq as a base in their campaign for self-rule in southeast Turkey.

The United States opposes any unilateral Turkish military action, fearing it could destabilize northern Iraq - the calmest part of the country.

http://www.turkishpress.com/news.asp?id=179057&s=&i=&t=Buyukanit:_Ready_for_PKK_Strike

 

[MarkOttawa]

More very worrying stuff:

General: Turkey's Troops Ready for Iraq
AP, May 31
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/05/31/AR2007053100549.html

ANKARA, Turkey -- Turkey's top general said Thursday his army _ which has been massing troops on the border with Iraq _ was prepared to attack separatist Kurdish guerrillas in a cross-border offensive.

Gen. Yasar Buyukanit said the military was ready and awaiting government orders for an incursion, putting pressure on the government to support an offensive that risks straining ties with the United States and Europe and raising tensions with Iraqi Kurds.

"As soldiers, we are ready," Buyukanit said at an international security conference in Istanbul.

Although the United States has branded the guerrillas a terrorist organization, Washington fears that Turkish military action could destabilize northern Iraq _ the most stable part of the war-torn country. Washington is also concerned that supporting Turkey in an incursion could alienate the pro-American Iraqi Kurds.

Many Turks believe a major incursion would help finish off the rebels from the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, which has been fighting for autonomy in Kurdish-dominated southeastern Turkey since 1984. Turkey's human rights record has been stained by allegations of excessive use of force in the fight against the guerrillas in a conflict that has killed tens of thousands of people...

Turkish intelligence reports say that Iraqi Kurdish groups, which previously supported the Turkish military in fighting the guerrillas, were preparing defenses against a possible Turkish incursion into northern Iraq. Turkey fears that Iraqi Kurds want to establish an independent Kurdish state, which could revive the aspirations of separatist Kurds in Turkey...

Public support for an offensive is high, especially following the recent killings of soldiers and a suicide bombing that killed six people. On Thursday, suspected rebels attacked a group of forestry workers in the predominantly Kurdish province of Bingol, killing four of them and wounding four others, officials said...

But the U.S. State Department said Wednesday it had seen no evidence of a significant movement of Turkish military forces in the border [emphasis added]...

Mark
Ottawa

 

[Kirkhill]

But the U.S. State Department said Wednesday it had seen no evidence of a significant movement of Turkish military forces in the border

So, on which sylLABLe do we wish to put the emPHAsis?

There are significant military forces on the border but they haven't moved?
There are no significant moves of new forces to the border?
No third party has supplied open source evidence of significant movements by the Turks?

As noted elsewhere - maybe it is just a peculiarity of the Turkish constitution - I find it fascinating that the civilian authority apparently doesn't initiate military action.  The initiative lies with the military to decide when and if military action is necessary.  The civilians only get to acquiesce or oppose.