I said in another thread that perhaps the Americans might prefer to see Kurds killing Kurds than Turks killing Kurds.
Perhaps though, the Kurds might prefer that the Turks do the killing. This might reduce the risk of the Peshmergas and Kurdish society splitting.
Maybe it is time for a touch of Nelson’s blind eye. Much protestation from the Kurds, the Iraqis and the Americans about the Turkish “intervention”, and much wailing and gnashing of teeth about how they are powerless to intervene given their current circumstances, all the while encouraging/allowing the Turks to solve a mutual problem. As long the Turks only intervene/raid and don’t invade then they might be doing a service to all parties except the PKK and their sponsors.
Such a scenario could also strengthen links amongst Turks, Kurds and Iraqis. There is nothing better than a shared secret to boost mutual confidence.
“...Turkish troops massed at border of Iraq’s Kurdish area
Charles J. Hanley, Associated Press
Published: Saturday, June 02, 2007
“….In an interview taped for broadcast Sunday on ABC-TV’s “This Week,” Iraq’s Kurdish president, Jalal Talabani, said Iraqi leaders had convinced the Iraq-based militants to cease their attacks, “and they did it.”
Al-Maliki, the Shiite prime minister, ending a visit to the Kurdish north on Saturday, also sought to ease the growing tensions….”
Coupled with a past history of cooperation between the PUK and the Turks against the PKK
http://www.turkses.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2521&Itemid=38
http://www.turkishdailynews.com.tr/archives.php?id=37612
http://www.casi.org.uk/discuss/2000/msg01029.html
And the Turks already have a recognised presence of 1000 personnel in Suleimaniyan in Iraq and the Kurds and Iraqis have not been squawking overly loudly about minor incursions that have already occured.
And as much as it is possible to keep track of who is doing what to whom in that part of the world the PKK seem to have strong ties to Syria and occasional ties of convenience to Iran. http://www.jamestown.org/terrorism/news/article.php?articleid=2370250
I am still of the opinion that the only people that this confrontation serves are third parties – specifically Syria, Iran and Gazprom. In the case of Gazprom instability precludes a competitor to their chokehold on European energy supplies. They have a motive for supporting instability in the area. And they have means in the form of money and potential allies. Gazprom has already demonstrated its chokehold (Jan 2006 Ukraine, Jan 2007 Belarus, May 2007 Estonia)
http://www.cacianalyst.org/newsite/?q=node/4288
http://www.guardian.co.uk/russia/article/0,2763,1676959,00.html
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=5622007
http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSL0271267920070502
Both Syria and Iran also profit from instability in that it helps their governments survive a while longer. The raid tactics adopted by the PKK are reminiscent of the tactics employed by Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, not to mention the “insurgents” in Iraq shelling the “Green Zone” so that the reporters in the hotels can get their “film at 11”.
(By the way – Iran is apparently upping the ante by shipping 240 mm missiles with a 30 km range into Iraq. Is that for increased effect or because they can’t get as close to their targets as they used to because of tightening local security? On the other hand aren’t they bigger targets, with more requirements for a logistical tail and trained personnel? Anyway…..).
“Iranian Flow Of Weapons Increasing, Officials Say
Arms Shipments Tracked To Iraqi, Afghan Groups
By Robin Wright
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, June 3, 2007; Page A14
Iran has increased arms shipments to both Iraq's Shiite extremists and Afghanistan's Taliban in recent weeks in an apparent attempt to pressure American and other Western troops operating in its two strategic neighbors, according to senior U.S. and European officials.
In Iraq, Iranian 240mm rockets, which have a range of up to 30 miles and could significantly change the battlefield, have been used recently by Shiite extremists against U.S. and British targets in Basra and Baghdad, the officials said. Three of the rockets have targeted U.S. facilities in Baghdad's Green Zone, and one came very close to hitting the U.S. Embassy in the Iraqi capital, according to the U.S. officials.
The 240mm rocket is the biggest and longest-range weapon in the hands of Shiite extremist groups, U.S. officials said. Remnants of the rockets bear the markings of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps and are dated 2007, those sources said. The Tehran government has supplied the same weapon, known as the Fajr-3, to Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite militia.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/06/02/AR2007060201020.html
It is also of a piece with Hezbollah’s distraction last summer. And could be of a piece with the current actions in Lebanon by Fatah al-Islam in Nahr el-Bared (nr Tripoli) and Jund al-Sham at Ain al-Hilweh (nr Sidon).
Apparently their fellow Palestinians aren’t all appreciative of the efforts on their behalf.
"It's time the army comes into the camps and cleans these people out," said Abu Rani, 36, a driver. He was among hundreds of Palestinian men, women and children streaming into a mosque on Ein al-Hilweh's edge for shelter as night fell. "It would be a relief to everyone, the Palestinians and the Lebanese."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/06/03/AR2007060301289.html
It is in line with threats by Assad of Syria to spread instability if the UN commission went ahead with the Hariri investigation.
I wonder though if it couldn't work against Syria. What if Turkey determined that the PKK had run away from Iraq and were now operating out of Syria? Would the Turkish Commandos pursue the same policy of Hot Pursuit?
And I believe that ultimately it has to do with the success that the US and the Iraqis are having with the Salvation Councils of Anbar, Salahudin and Diyala in targeting the Al Qaeda movement – often by letting locals play by house rules. (If the US and the Brits conduct “keenie meenie operations” then there would be an awful lot more diplomatic fuss than if the locals indulge in a little headsmanship.)
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18881803/site/newsweek/page/0/
By the way – The US must be doing something right – Agence France Presse no longer describes the Sunni home defence forces as “militias” or “private armies”. They are now, in French eyes, legitimate. They are now “tribal levies” – a well known entity to both French and British readers. They were the “official” locals that assisted in the maintenance of order in Colonial days – Spahis and Trucial Oman Scouts etc. http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20070602/wl_mideast_afp/iraq_070602184109
“BAGHDAD (AFP) - Unidentified gunmen shot dead a local Al-Qaeda leader in the western Iraqi city of Fallujah on Saturday, police said, as fighting between rival Sunni factions undermined the insurgency.
The apparent assassination of the militant kingpin came as the US military announced that marines and Iraqi security forces had killed seven Al-Qaeda fighters during an assault on a truck bomb factory.
Both incidents appeared to be linked to increased cooperation between Sunni factions, once sympathetic to the Iraqi resistance, and the US military, which is encouraging nationalist factions to fight Al-Qaeda.
Colonel Tareq al-Dulaimi, a senior police intelligence officer with close ties to Anbar Province's pro-US tribal coalition(The Dulaimis are to Anbar and eastern Syria as the Saudis are to Arabia – THE tribe), confirmed reports that Muwaffaq al-Jugheifi had been killed but did not identify the attackers.
Dulaimi described the slain Al-Qaeda leader as an Iraqi from Fallujah…..
Fallujah is the focus of a large-scale security operation in which Iraqi police and tribal levies, backed by US forces, are trying to drive out Al-Qaeda Islamist militants……
Saturday's killing came after the Anbar Salvation Council, the armed wing of the province's tribal coalition, announced that it was sending plainclothes "secret police" to Baghdad to kill Al-Qaeda leaders. (And apparently “tribal levies” can legitimately employ “plainclothes secret police”.)”
Perhaps we will know that Iraq is secure when we read about it in and Agence France Presse report.
By the way Mark, further to the issue of Kurds in Afghanistan, I stand by my statement that the Kurds exist throughout the mountains from the Kush to Anatolia and the Caucasus to the Zagros although they are not in influential numbers in Afghanistan. I also stand by the statement "there are good Kurds and bad Kurds". As to the quality of the Evangelical site's information - the numbers are in line with your numbers if somewhat more modest and I tend to trust market research more than political research. Remember these folks are trying to figure out how to "sell" bibles. ;D Cheers.
