America may be involved in Libya for many years, experts say
The United States is in Libya for the long haul, whether the Obama administration likes it or not, and weeding out al Qaeda infiltrators from the opposition bent on taking over control of the country from strongman Moammar Gadhafi will be an enormous challenge, experts said.
Bruce Riedel, a former CIA officer and senior adviser to three U.S. presidents on Middle East and South Asian issues, told The Examiner that "mission creep" is almost a certainty in Libya.
He said the United States and NATO should twist the arms of opposition leaders to force al Qaeda out of their coalition, if they want to be supplied with weapons and aid from allies. "We have to recognize, whether we like it or not, we own this problem now," said Riedel, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. "The notion that you can intervene and walk away from it is very disingenuous," said Riedel. "Half measures are likely to produce failed outcomes. As much as the administration wants to reassure this is no major operation, it is. Once you're in it's very difficult to get out."
Al Qaeda is raiding Libya's vast weapon coffers, according to news reports from the region, making it more critical that extremist elements are kept from gaining more strength within the loose confederation of opposition groups in that country, experts said. Gadhafi's stockpile includes surface to air missiles, which would be a devastating weapon in the hands of terrorists associated with al Qaeda. The missiles guide themselves to an aircraft after locking onto its heat signature.
"There is reason to believe that al Qaeda has access to Libyan weapons," said one U.S. official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. "What weapons they've actually acquired is not really known at this time."
Pentagon officials said they could not comment at this time on those reports.
Former National Security Adviser James Jones told CNN Sunday that "there is no real clarity," regarding the Libyan strategy. He added that elements of extremists are in the ranks and they should be identified.
"If you start from the proposition that the reason for committing our forces, as Americans or as part of NATO, was basically to avoid a massacre of innocent civilians, which probably would have happened, now we're there," Jones said. "Now we have to follow the rest of the trail to identify these people, then decide whether that's meritorious or not in terms of training, organizing, equipping."
Jim Phillips, senior analyst with the Heritage Foundation said al Qaeda fighters from Libya have played a major role in operations by the terrorist group, and that any aid to the Libyan opposition should be done with caution.
A number of "top al Qaeda leaders have been Libyan and the Libyan city of Derna provided more foreign recruits to the al Qaeda in Iraq organization than any foreign city except for Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, according to captured documents," he said. "That said, it is unclear how much of the rebel fighting force is made up of al Qaeda sympathizers." Phillips added that probably no more than 10 percent of the Libyan opposition is composed of fighters with a connection to al Qaeda. "But it remains a reason for concern and will be a factor that should make the United States think twice about arming the opposition," he said.
It will be a difficult challenge for CIA operatives who are now in Libya to identify the terrorist fighters who have infiltrated the opposition forces. Extremist groups, who have long opposed Gadhafi, will use their knowledge of the tribal divisions and the terrain to their advantage, said Riedel, the former CIA officer.
"They want to expand the safe haven and impose themselves in the opposition," he said. "It will not be an easy task for the CIA to retrieve the information. I think it needs to be taken extremely seriously."
However, using the opposition leadership to clean out al Qaeda from their fighting force may be possible, as they need NATO and U.S. aid to get weapons and technology to fight Gadhafi forces, he said.
When the United States entered Bosnia-Herzegoniva in 1995, the rebel fighter were being aided by jihadist extremists and Iranians. "We said if you want our support you're going to have to clean up your act and that's what they did for the most part," Riedel added.
Sara A. Carter is The Washington Examiner's national security correspondent. She can be reached at scarter@washingtonexaminer.com.
