Turmoil in Libya (2011) and post-Gaddafi blowback

[The Bread Guy]

Time to bring in a battalion of troops (the US already has a ship with Marines on the way)....get this over with....they already have enough justification and authority from the Arab countries.....knock out Gaddafi's armed forces, turn it over to existing rebel alliance, and get on with life...

A return engagement for the Marines to the "shores of Tripoli"?

 

[tomahawk6]

The rebels lack the logistics to sustain their campaign at least thats my read. Also the closer they get to the regime's strongholds they are going to be out numbered. As long as the no fly zone exists I think we will see a divided Libya with Gadaffi in the west and the rebels in the east.

 

[GAP]

Gadaffi in the east and the rebels in the west.

Reverse those Tony

 

[CougarKing]

US Navy P-3C, USAF A-10 and USS Barry Engage Libyan Vessels


USS MOUNT WHITNEY, In Port, Mar 29, 2011 —  A U.S. Navy P-3C Maritime Patrol aircraft, a U.S. Air Force A-10 Thunderbolt attack aircraft and guided-missile destroyer USS Barry (DDG-52) engaged Libyan Coast Guard vessel Vittoria and two smaller crafts after confirmed reports that Vittoria and accompanying craft were firing indiscriminately at merchant vessels in the port of Misratah, Libya, during the evening March 28, 2011.

The P-3C fired at Vittoria with AGM-65F Maverick missiles after multiple explosions were observed in the vicinity of the port rendering the 12-meter patrol vessel ineffective and forcing it to be beached.Two small crafts were fired upon by an A-10 using its 30mm GAU-8/ Avenger Gatling cannon, destroying one and forcing the other to be abandoned.

Barry provided situational awareness for the aircraft by managing the airspace and maintaining the maritime picture.

AFRICOM link

 

[The Bread Guy]

The rebels lack the logistics to sustain their campaign at least thats my read. Also the closer they get to the regime's strongholds they are going to be out numbered. As long as the no fly zone exists I think we will see a divided Libya with Gadaffi in the east west and the rebels in the west east.

Fixed that for you (thx GAP for the sharp eyes).

Meanwhile, Supreme Allied Commander and Commander, US European Command Stavridis on who's in charge - the short answer, via Twitter:

#NATO is now in charge of ALL military operations in #Libya: Humanitarian, Arms Embargo, No-Fly Zone, and Protection of Civilians.

... and the longer version, via his blog:

Not surprisingly, I’ve received a lot of questions about what is happening in Libya in both my capacity as Commander of the US European Command (USEUCOM) and as the Supreme Allied Commander, Europe (SACEUR).

Given the amount of interest, let me address the role of both USEUCOM and Allied Command Operations (ACO) in Libya – the former in a supporting role, the latter acting upon direction from the North Atlantic Council (NAC). Forgive me if this blog runs a little longer than most – we’ve got a lot to cover!

Allow me to underscore that in both cases – as a US Combatant Commander and as SACEUR – our purpose with respect to Libya is to support the United Nations Security Council Resolution (UNSCR). The Resolution calls for humanitarian assistance; enforcement of the arms embargo; support of a no fly zone; and the protection of civilians. If you haven’t already, I encourage you to read the actual UNSCRs 1970 and 1973.

Now, let’s start with USEUCOM. As most of you know, the United States military is organized into geographic and functional Combatant Commands. The Combatant Command with the lead role in ongoing US military operations in Libya – titled Operation ODYSSEY DAWN – is the United States Africa Command (USAFRICOM), under the very able leadership of GEN Carter Ham. USEUCOM is involved in support of USAFRICOM.

“Alright, Admiral,” you might think to yourself. “What exactly does that mean?” To be more precise, some of the ways USEUCOM is providing support include manpower augmentation (e.g., intelligence, operations, public affairs, etc.), contingency planning, communications connectivity and infrastructure, logistical support at bases within the European theater, and basing/overflight rights. Overall, USEUCOM has helped to enable the effective execution of the operation in a complex and dynamic environment; however, USAFRICOM is the lead combatant command capably directing forces in support of Operation ODYSSEY DAWN.

Let’s turn next to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Of course, all NATO decisions are based on the consensus of the 28 member nations. Any decision is, therefore, the expression of the nations’ collective will. While numerous committees and groups exist to explore issues and guide discussion, the primary decision making body is the NAC, chaired by the NATO Secretary General and formed of Ambassadors, Defense Ministers, Foreign Ministers, or Heads of State and Government. In permanent session, NATO nations have Ambassadors in the NAC, also known as Permanent Representatives or PERMREPS.

As you’d expect, gaining consensus amongst 28 sovereign nations is not always a simple matter, but when it does occur, it is a very powerful expression of the collective will that I mentioned earlier. NATO has reacted to the crises in Libya with unprecedented speed. If you’re interested in learning more about how NATO works, there’s a good interactive introduction to the organization here.

On March 22, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen announced the NAC’s agreement to enforce the UN-mandated arms embargo on Libya within the context of UNSCRs 1970 and 1973. NATO operations for Libya have been named Operation UNIFIED PROTECTOR. Under the scope of UNIFIED PROTECTOR, NATO is authorized to enforce the arms embargo and the no-fly-zone (NFZ). This was just five days after the UNSCR passed.

The arms embargo mission is focused on assisting the international community to reduce the flow of arms and material into and from Libya in order to reduce acts of aggression against the Libyan civilian population. Operation UNIFIED PROTECTOR will assist in reducing the flow of arms, related material and mercenaries to and from the coastal waters off Libya only. NATO nation ships and aircraft will conduct operations to monitor, report and, if needed, interdict vessels and intercept aircraft where there are reasonable grounds to suspect that they are carrying cargo in violation of the arms embargo or suspected of carrying illegal arms or mercenaries. This is being conducted in close coordination with international maritime authorities, commercial shipping, and regional organizations to ensure the free flow of legitimate shipping to and from Libya.

As for the NFZ, it was originally initiated by a coalition of primarily NATO countries coordinating under Operation ODYSSEY DAWN. It quickly became apparent that NATO is uniquely qualified to assume leadership of the NFZ, bringing both capabilities through its members’ military commitments and coherence through NATO’s well established command and control structure. As we have seen in Kosovo, Afghanistan, operations supporting counter-piracy and other missions, NATO has the experience and expertise to lead this effort. On March 24, the NAC took the next step to approve enforcement of the NFZ, which puts NATO in that leadership role, just seven days after the UNSCR.

And finally, just last night, NATO Allies decided to take on the whole military operation in Libya, ten days after the UNSCR. As defined by the United Nations Security Council Resolution, our goal is to protect civilians and civilian-populated areas under threat of attack. NATO will implement all aspects of the UN Resolution ....

Making sense?  ;D

 

[a_majoor]

US Interests?:

http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Columns/2011/03/30/Libya-Whats-Really-behind-the-US-Action.aspx?p=1

Libya: What’s Really Behind the U.S. Action
By LIZ PEEK, The Fiscal Times March 30, 2011

Self interest is at the core of diplomacy. Therefore, the acknowledged lack of apparent U.S. self interest in containing Gaddafi’s troops in Libya has led some to question our military intervention in that country. Last night President Obama defended our engagement in Libya, suggesting that the United States is “different” from those countries that can stand by and witness atrocities; unlike others, Mr. Obama said, we have a moral mandate to protect innocent citizens. Naturally, we are led to wonder whether that same obligation extends to Syria or to Bahrain, or to any other country where a desperate government decides to slaughter its own people.

Is there something that President Obama is not telling us? Is it possible that we have a greater vested interest in squashing Gaddafi’s belligerence than we are letting on? Could it be that Gaddafi’s reported threats to bomb his country’s oilfields lit the fuse under the leaders of France and Britain who all but shamed us into climbing aboard? Or was it Gaddafi’s prediction that a flood of immigrants would “swamp” Europe that aroused Sarkozy’s energies?

It is possible that the U.S. is more vulnerable to chaos in Libya than is generally known. Our economic recovery is hanging by a thread — a thread which weaves through the EU and also through Asia. Our modest recovery has been threatened repeatedly — by the government debt crisis in Europe last year and more recently by the tsunami in Japan. Rising oil prices and the prospect of more wide-spread inflation appears to be taking a toll. The recent swoon in consumer confidence presages a fall-off in all-important spending while the housing numbers continue dismal.

Europe’s leaders might have convinced Obama that Gaddafi’s threats to attack oilfields or create chaos through disruptive immigration could sow the seeds of a double dip in Europe.

As important as the consumer is in the U.S., it is also essential that our major export markets remain healthy. As in our country, the OECD members are challenged by fiscal difficulties and more recently by inflation. Consumer prices rose 2.4 percent in the OECD in February — the highest rate of increase since October 2008. Concerns about price hikes are likely fueling anxiety among consumers in Europe as well as in the U.S.

All of these developments mean that the upturn from the banking crisis remains fragile. Fed Chair Ben Bernanke repeatedly has used this uncertainty to argue for the quantitative easing program (QE2) that many view as dangerously encouraging inflation. Bottom line: It is not a stretch to imagine that Europe’s leaders might have convinced President Obama that Gaddafi’s threats to attack oil fields or create chaos through disruptive immigration could sow the seeds of a double dip in Europe.

They could have made the case that a slump would have pulled the U.S. down as well — the worst of all possible preludes to the 2012 election for Mr. Obama. Were that case made, it is equally believable that Obama would engage all possible measures to thwart such a development.

In Europe, Italy is especially vulnerable to threats by Gaddafi to bomb his own oilfields and to unleash a massive wave of illegal immigrants. Because of its location, that country is already dealing with the exodus of large numbers of Tunisians and would be the natural entry point for Libyans as well. Italy, like other countries in the E.U., is already struggling and in no position to support a wave of dependent newcomers. At the same time, Italy has sizeable economic interests in its former colony — its state-owned oil company is the largest in the North African nation.

Libya supplies 13 percent of Italy’s oil and 23 percent of its natural gas. Gaddafi has warned that such interests are at risk.

Italy is the single largest source of Libyan imports, accounting for nearly 19 percent of the country’s annual $24 billion outlays. Moreover, total imports into Libya have more than doubled in the past five years — a tempting market indeed. Libyan investors own sizeable shares of some of Italy’s leading companies such as banking giant UniCredit, Fiat and defense supplier Finmeccanica. Further, Libya supplies 13 percent of Italy’s oil and 23 percent of its natural gas. Gaddafi has warned that such interests are at risk.

Because of its economic entanglements with Libya, the leaders of Italy were initially reluctant to support the military intervention so eagerly pursued by England and France. In fact, at a time when others on the continent were criticizing the government in Tripoli, Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said he would not “bother” his close friend Gaddafi. Less than a year before, Berlusconi had hosted Gaddafi at a state dinner and ordered warplanes to draw a Libyan flag in the sky. More recently, the embattled leader revoked his country’s friendship agreement with Gaddafi.

The Italians are not alone in prizing stable relations with Libya. Though Libya accounts for only about 2 percent of total world oil production, it supplies some 23 percent of Ireland’s oil; for France the figure is 16 percent. Sarkozy staged a grand reception for the Libyan dictator in 2007. 

While many E.U. countries consume Libyan oil, several are also nervous about increasing numbers of illegal immigrants. Germany’s reluctance to sign on for the UN resolution may reflect its wariness on this front. Germany is reported to have nearly 600,000 illegal immigrants; this population has become a touchy political issue across the continent.

This account will not be alone in questioning the motives of those eager to displace Gaddafi. The Chinese, who abstained from the Security Council vote authorizing the establishment of a no-fly zone, have hinted that the West is after Gaddafi’s oil. That claim resonates; after all, Libya is home to the 9th largest oil reserve cache in the world, amounting to 47 billion barrels. 

The Chinese, it is fair to say, are experts in analyzing self-interest. And, there are numerous other reasons for the leaders of France and England to have pushed so hard for this engagement with Libya. Sarkozy was smarting from his administration’s ties to the former head of Tunisia, and England’s Cameron would like nothing better than to distract his restive populace from his government’s austerity measures. Still, the determination of these two politicians to enter into armed conflict raises doubts that we are getting the whole story.

 

[57Chevy]

shared in accordance with provisions of the Copyright Act

AFP 30 March 2011
US, Britain insert covert agents into Libya: reports
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hXor75Rd_hg9mXsaTzweY5oMOIeg?docId=CNG.1c55d652e61ad9ac029d2769b1927b97.c81

WASHINGTON — The United States and Britain have inserted covert intelligence agents into Libya to make contact with rebels and to gather data to guide coalition air strikes, a report said Wednesday.

The White House refused to comment on the apparent shadow war in Libya, and also declined to discuss another report that President Barack Obama had signed a secret order allowing Central Intelligence Agency operations in the country.

article continues at link

 

[CougarKing]

link


CIA sends teams of operatives to Libya; US considering 'all types' of help for rebels

By Adam Goldman,Donna Cassata, The Associated Press | The Canadian Press – 37 minutes ago
WASHINGTON - The CIA has sent small teams of operatives into Libya and helped rescue a crew member of a U.S. fighter jet that crashed, and the White House said Wednesday it was assessing "all types of assistance" for rebels battling Moammar Gadhafi's troops.
Battlefield setbacks are hardening the U.S. view that the poorly equipped opposition probably is incapable of prevailing without decisive Western intervention, a senior U.S. intelligence official told The Associated Press.

Lawmakers, in private briefings with top Obama administration officials, asked tough questions about the cost of the military operation and expressed concern about the makeup of the rebels.

Members of Congress quoted officials as saying the U.S. military role would be limited, and heard President Barack Obama's director of national intelligence compare the rebel forces to a "pick-up basketball team."

"No decision has been made about providing arms to the opposition or to any groups in Libya," said White House press secretary Jay Carney. "We're not ruling it out or ruling it in."

The CIA's precise role in Libya is not clear. Intelligence experts said the CIA would have sent officials to make contact with the opposition and assess the strength and needs of the rebel forces in the event Obama decided to arm them.

(...)

 

 

[old medic]

Kadafi aide flees to Britain and quits
Libyan Foreign Minister Musa Kusa may give Western intelligence agencies a better picture of what is going on behind the scenes.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-libya-kusa-20110331,0,579548.story

By Borzou Daragahi, Los Angeles Times
March 31, 2011

A high-ranking member of Moammar Kadafi's entourage has dealt a serious blow to the Tripoli regime by abandoning his post and fleeing to Britain, where he stepped off a military plane Wednesday and announced his resignation.

Musa Kusa, Libya's foreign minister and former longtime intelligence chief, had long served as a top member of the Kadafi family's inner circle.

His apparent defection will give Western intelligence agencies a clearer picture of what is going on behind the scenes. He could provide information on whether there are further fractures within the regime's elite, as well as describing the mood and identifying the doubters and the stalwarts...................

 

[old medic]

http://www.combatcamera.forces.gc.ca/netpub/server.np?find&catalog=news&template=news-nouvelles_detail_eng.np&field=itemid&op=matches&value=853&site=combatcamera

Video Link, Combat Camera , CF-18 hits ammo depot

 

[old medic]

Kadafi government rebuffs Libya rebel cease-fire offer

After rebels refused for weeks to negotiate with Moammar Kadafi's regime, a rebel leader offers a cease-fire if Kadafi agrees to withdraw his forces from besieged cities and permit peaceful protests.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-libya-20110402,0,6826191.story
By Borzou Daragahi and David Zucchino, Los Angeles Times
April 1, 2011

Reporting from Tripoli and Benghazi, Libya—

Libyan leader Moammar Kadafi's regime brusquely swatted down a truce offered by rebels Friday and continued to pummel opposition positions in both the eastern and western sections of the country.

After rebels had refused for weeks to negotiate with Kadafi's government, the leader of the opposition's national council, Mustafa Abdul Jalil, offered a cease-fire if Kadafi agreed to withdraw his forces from besieged Libyan cities and permitted peaceful protests.

But Musa Ibrahim, a spokesman for the regime, dismissed the offer as a trick...............

 

[observor 69]

Play audio file:  CIA flight out of Luqa Malta, Lockheed 382G tail nr N3796B on April 1st 2011 08:00 GMT
about 12 hours ago


http://audioboo.fm/boos/319143-cia-flight-out-of-luqa-malta-lockheed-382g-tail-nr-n3796b-on-april-1st-2011-08-00-gmt

 

[CougarKing]

link

NATO airstrike kills Libyan rebels: reports

NATO is investigating reports from Libyan rebels that a coalition airstrike killed 10 rebel fighters near Brega.

Rebels said Saturday that a NATO warplane struck a rebel position, about 20 kilometres east of Brega, that was firing into the air near the eastern front line of the battle with Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi's forces. The strike happened Friday night, they said.
Mohammad Bedrise, a doctor in a nearby hospital, said three burned bodies had been brought in by men who said they had been hit after firing a heavy machine gun in the air in celebration.

Idris Kadiki, a 38-year-old mechanical engineer, said he had seen an ambulance and three cars burning after an airstrike.

NATO spokeswoman Oana Lungescu said the coalition was looking into the reports.

On Saturday, Libyan government forces killed six civilians in the city of Misrata in an unrelenting campaign of shelling and sniper fire aimed at driving rebels from the main city they hold in western Libya, medical officials said.

Better discipline

The loosely organized rebel force had been acting in a more disciplined fashion in recent days. On Friday, only former military officers and the lightly trained volunteers serving under them were allowed on the front lines.

Some were recent arrivals, hoping to rally against forces loyal to the Libyan leader who have pushed rebels back about 160 kilometres this week.
The better organized fighters, unlike some of their predecessors, can tell the difference between incoming and outgoing fire. They know how to avoid sticking to the roads, a weakness in the untrained forces that Gadhafi's troops have exploited. And they know how to take orders.

The greater organization was a sign that military forces that split from the regime to join the rebellion were finally taking a greater role in the fight after weeks trying to organize. Fighters cheered Friday as one of their top commanders — Abdel-Fattah Younis, the former interior minister — drove by in a convoy toward the front.

It was too early to say if the improvements will tip the fight in the rebels' favour. They have been struggling to exploit the opportunity opened by international airstrikes hammering Gadhafi's forces since March 19.

Lately, according to rebels, Gadhafi supporters have caused confusion by infiltrating opposition forces, Borzou Daragahi of the Los Angeles Times told CBC News.

Rebel propose ceasefire condition

In a sign the airstrikes may be eroding Gadhafi's resilience, his government is trying to hold talks with the U.S., Britain and France in hopes of ending the air campaign, said Abdul-Ati al-Obeidi, a former Libyan prime minister who has served as a Gadhafi envoy during the crisis.

"We are trying to find a mutual solution," he told Britain's Channel 4 News on Friday. British officials met with Mohammed Ismail, a Libyan government aide who happened to be in London visiting relatives, and told him Gadhafi must quit, two people familiar with the issue said Friday.

The two demanded anonymity to discuss details.

The opposition said Friday in Benghazi, its de facto capital, that it will agree to a ceasefire if Gadhafi pulls his military forces out of cities and allows peaceful protests against his regime.

The rebel condition is that "the Gadhafi brigades and forces withdraw from inside and outside Libyan cities to give freedom to the Libyan people to choose," said Mustafa Abdul-Jalil, head of the opposition's interim governing council. "The world will see that they will choose freedom."

 

[CobraBalls]

After reading this ---> http://www.presstv.ir/detail/167704.html

I wondered what events would need to unfold to actually see U.N. peace keepers in Libya, more specifically, Canadian peace keepers. Assuming the Harper government is voted back in coupled with a Canadian Air Force General currently in command over there and both sides showing no signs of backing down, I wonder if it is indeed possible? We are pulling out of Afghanistan too, which would free up some resources one would assume?... Perhaps even another NATO ISAF deployment??

I would love to hear feedback from anyone since I don't really dont have a clear understanding U.N. processies.

 

[Sizzle709]

I think we might actually take a year off after Afghanistan to recompose ourselves and prepare for another conflict. The way that Obama namely has handled the whole situation so far has been brilliant. The airstrikes are working and the coalition are well on their way to getting rid of Ghadafi. It should only be a matter of months now before he steps down or is killed. Just have to play the waiting game.

Sudan on the other hand... Maybe, Just maybe.

 

[medicineman]

The last time we got involved with a civil war with the UN, things didn't bode too well...to answer the question, there would have a to be a UN Security Council Resolution, then the  host country would have to agree to have the soldiers there (one of the multitude of reasons we're not in the Sudan), courntries would have to agree to send troops, and a host of other issues - rules of engagement, a defined and enforceable mandate (the UN is often good at taking the most absolute thing and making it wishy washy and totally ambiguous) and an exit plan.  My question back would be - why should there be UN peacekeeping troops in Libya at this time and what would they be doing?  Do you think that, given how cheap the UN is about how many people they send to do the job, that they would be able to enforce a mandate against a determined foe?  Wouldn't it be better for a green hatted, Arab League force to go there, robust in size and ROE, much like the African Union insists for trying to settle it's own problems?  The days of Targets for Peace is pretty much over - it looks cool, but in reality, the mandates are rarely enforceable due to personnel constraints put on the forces by New York and nothing really gets accomplished.

:2c:

MM

 

[OldSolduer]

Its a civil war on the continent of Africa. Africans in general don't like "whitey" meddling in their affairs.

Somalia, Rwanda, The Congo. None of those turned out well.

Its an Arab and African issue. I think we should stay out.

 

[Jed]

IMO, because the Western world, which includes Canada, is not very well appreciated by the majority of the warring tribes in Africa; we should just picket and bypass. The only good reason, other than to help our fellow man, which is negated by the lack of acceptance from Africa, is to have 'Eyes on' in case we have another Osama Bin Laden situation develop.

 

[Rheostatic]

I believe the UN brand requires cooperation from both sides and a peace to "keep". Anyways...

No Canadian 'boots on the ground' in Libya, Harper vows

By Mark Kennedy, Postmedia News March 31, 2011

HALIFAX — Prime Minister Stephen Harper declared Thursday that Canada will not send ground troops into Libya — even though he sees a clear need to depose that country's ruler, Moammar Gadhafi.

Read more: http://www.canada.com/Canadian+boots+ground+Libya+Harper+vows/4538675/story.html#ixzz1IOlm3B3Z

 

[a_majoor]

Getting sucked into the vortex. Whatever happened to selection and maintainence of the aim?

http://pajamasmedia.com/tatler/2011/04/02/eu-to-put-boots-on-the-ground-in-libya/

EU to put boots on the ground in Libya?

As the US is pulling away from Libya, the EU seems to be getting in.

The European Council on Friday approved the decision to mount an EU military operation to support humanitarian efforts in Libya, if asked to do so by the United Nations.

“The EU will, if requested by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), conduct a military operation in…order to support humanitarian assistance in the region,” the council statement read.

“The aim of the operation would be to contribute to the safe movement and evacuation of displaced persons and to support the humanitarian agencies in their activities with specific capabilities,” it said.

If I’m reading that right, the EU’s mission is half Dunkirk, half Peace Corps. It also appears to be a sign that Gaddafi will get to hang around a while longer.