US Presidential Election 2024 - Trump vs Harris - Vote Hard with a Vengence

[QV]

I'd like to see that source, because after searching, nothing I could find corroborates that statement. In fact, while I couldn't find any actually polling data, interviews with independents post-debate indicated they either weren't swayed, or leaned Harris more often than Trump:

What undecided voters thought of the debate: From the Politics Desk

Plus, Trump's debate performance prompts concern from allies, and the first general election ballots are in the mail.

www.nbcnews.com

Swing state voters watching debate say Harris was prepared, Trump lost his cool

Swing-state residents from across the country shared their thoughts with the USA TODAY Network during and after the Harris vs. Trump debate.

www.usatoday.com

Undecided Americans impressed by Harris - did debate shift their votes?

We spoke to eight voters who see the debate as crucial in determining who they will support in November.

www.bbc.com

Even RFK Jr. doesn't think this went well toward gaining support from independents:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4875178-rfk-jr-independent-support-trump-debate/

Judging from your links, perhaps you're looking in the wrong place.

 

[QV]

I just asked for a source for the comments.


I don’t 100% trust polls because, again, 2016 - but I did watch the debate and I’m not sure how comments like “3 v 1” translate to “Trump won the debate”.

I don't think Trump won the debate. I also don't think it was fairly moderated and Trump was heavily disadvantaged. I also don't think the MSM would ever admit Trump won regardless (notwithstanding the operation to oust a down-in-polls Biden from the ticket).

I do think Trump will benefit more than Harris from that debate.

 

[QV]

One focus group. No need to panic.

Anyone wanting to panic would be better off following RCP's daily "This Day In History" of poll spreads (2016, 2020, and 2024).

This Day In History: September 12, 2020: Biden +7.8 | September 12, 2016: Clinton +2.8

And Harris at +1.3 now.

Not great for the DNC. But comfortably within the MoC.

 

[brihard]

I do think Trump will benefit more than Harris from that debate.

I’m genuinely curious- how so? Trump was true to form but didn’t keep his poop in a group particularly well. He showed nothing that we haven’t seen a bunch of times before. Anyone not already on his side would be unlikely to be brought over.

Harris went head to head with him for the first time, was deemed relatively unproven, and there was uncertainty as to how she would acquit herself in that environment. Generally the perception seems to be that she held up well. She entered into this debate with, I would argue, far more possible voters with doubts or questions than he did. I think she was able to resolve a lot of those and show herself capable. And all of that is before contending with any of the solid blows she managed to land.

What’s your take on this having been advantageous for him?

One interesting metric- stock in Trump’s social media company, widely seen as a barometer of investor sentiment in the man himself, paused its steady slide after the debate to instead jump right off a cliff. It’s now trading at a quarter of the heights it hit following the DWAC merger. Those with true financial skin in the game seem to be steadily trending in a particular direction in terms of their confidence in him.

 

[QV]

The simple metric of underdog vs establishment. The debate moderation was widely observed as biased. Yes, Trump missed opportunities and seemed flustered, but as Brad pointed out he did not "plumb new depths". MSM and across D and R lines are stating Harris won a debate that many lay-person observers view as unfair and therefore useless. There is no clean win here, Harris did not distinguish by participating in a clean debate, rather appears to have benefitted from "cheating".

Advantage - Trump.

 

[dimsum]

The simple metric of underdog vs establishment. The debate moderation was widely observed as biased. Yes, Trump missed opportunities and seemed flustered, but as Brad pointed out he did not "plumb new depths". MSM and across D and R lines are stating Harris won a debate that many lay-person observers view as unfair and therefore useless. There is no clean win here, Harris did not distinguish by participating in a clean debate, rather appears to have benefitted from "cheating".

Advantage - Trump.

How did she cheat? By seemingly knowing answers to questions that any proper staffer would have easily figured out would be on a national presidential debate, because they are on every presidential debate?

It’s not a stretch to think that they would ask about immigration, southern border, abortion, or high profile events from the last two administrations, since the candidates were in either the Trump or Biden administrations.

 

[MrWhyt]

that many lay-person observers view as unfair and therefore useless.

citation needed.

rather appears to have benefitted from "cheating".

she prepared for the debate!, how dare she "clutches pearls, swoons."

 

[Brad Sallows]

I’m actually not sure you are being serious in anything you wrote above.

Are there any allegations more substantial than "some people I know"?

Who was pardoned, and in exchange for what?

What secrets were sold, to whom, and in exchange for what?

 

[Brad Sallows]

I’m genuinely curious- how so?

It's plausible. Angry flustered off-topic lying Trump is something people have been seeing for over 8 years. He spent too much time digressing about the past even when he was trying to correct Harris when the moderators wouldn't step in (which is as it should have been for both candidates), but did manage to close with at least one key point: what was done during the prior administration?

He benefits from the perception that the moderators were actively on-side for Harris. A couple of interventions against Harris would have mitigated that, but there were none. Whatever angels-on-the-head-of-a-pin debates people want to have about the substance of "these things merited correction; nothing else did", the appearance is manifestly one-sided. Having read parts of the transcript, I'm struck by how often the moderators felt they needed to interject at length. That's not a role for moderators. If candidates are bullsh!tting each other, the candidates should also be policing each other. He tells a lie or shades the truth; she counters with a straight statement of historical facts. If the opposing candidate doesn't know the point well enough to elucidate facts, that's on the opposing candidate - the moderators aren't there to be a backup set of notes on cue cards. The perception of Democratic-favouring bias is aggravated by past performances - Crowley's incorrect fact-check, Brazile's admission of passing questions beforehand. One of Trump's themes is that the establishment is out to get him. Whether intended or not, fair or not, this debate bolstered that theme.

Conversely, Harris has gotten about as far as she can with hype, sympathetic public relations, and presenting well. Adopting facial expressions of condescending amusement - or too much repetition of any other kind of unseriousness - typically isn't well-received by people not already sympathetic. Having seen some clips, I was reminded of Biden's repeated dismissive chuckling during his debate with Ryan. I suppose it plays well with some people, but not all. I doubt Harris can run out the remaining 8 weeks without having to explain some of her policy position reversals or be specific about how she would govern differently (break continuity with the Biden administration). Some of the questions were opportunities to do so, but she's still inclined to throw out a lot of vision and fluff. Her reluctance to face adversarial Q&A formats limits her opportunities to be more informative. The closer the election date gets, the fewer opportunities there are and the harder it's going to be to tell people a little bit at a time to mitigate whatever damage results. The theme all this relates to is "these people think they're smarter than you, and don't have to explain themselves".