US VS G7

[GR66]

At the yellow part, I don't believe that to be true. It's for the domestic audience, not the American audience.  And there are a great many Canadians upset about how this is going down, and would, naturally, like to read about it and inform themselves, or share their own opinions about it.

Nobody cares about what the American President says about tariffs, but I'm sure they care about the actual tariffs themselves, which is understandable.

And yes, America would crush Canada like a bug, but this it's America versus Canada, this is really America versus the world.

The EU put tariffs on America. That's already hurting american businesses and moving jobs out of america.

China is about to put tariffs on America, that has certain sectors of America worried about job losses and loss of revenue

Canada has put tariffs on American goods, and we are their largest export market, that isn't to be taken lightly.

India has put tariffs on America

Turkey has put tariffs on America

Mexico has put tariffs on America, and they are hurting certain sectors of the American Market.

Japan has plans for tariffs on American goods

Canada may not be able to go head on versus the USA in a trade war, but Canada doesn't have to.

You seem to be very keen on the idea of the world getting together to gang up on the US and crush them with punishing tariffs in retaliation for their actions.  However you accept the fact that such a trade war will hurt everyone.  Why are you so set on a course of action that with each new tariff and counter-tariff will make the lives of everyone involved worse and worse? 

Why not try and put a halt to the spiral of escalation?  We all know that Trump's actions are designed to play to his base and play on their fears of being taken advantage of by others.  Why not try and lessen those fears?  Trump says dairy supply management is totally unfair.  There are a number of Canadian policy analysts that feel there are problems with supply management as well.  Take that as an opportunity to review the system and see if some changes can be made that will still benefit Canada but also addresses some of the USAs greatest concerns.  Trump can present that as a victory to his base.  He can say "look...I told the Canadians they were cheating us and we're not going to take it and they made changes".  Let him take credit...I could care less.

I'm not saying to bend over and let our industries get screwed, but take his objections as an opportunity to make changes to some sacred cows that might actually need to be made (even to our long-term benefit). 

Trump says our steel and aluminum exports are a national security threat?  Maybe then we could have proposed a joint task force to review how we could jointly ensure that cheap foreign steel is not entering our markets through back doors so that we can protect both of our domestic industries. 

Or if national security is the Trump concern of the day then announce that we're moving up the competition for our replacement fighters so that we can meet our NORAD needs and that the US aircraft are of course free to compete.  Or opt in to ballistic missile defense as part of our shared responsibility to continental defense.  Or announce an increase in defense spending to meet our agreed 2% target, etc. (using whatever accounting method the PMO chooses to fudge that number with).

This sounds much better to me than tit-for-tat trade war escalations that will simply create harder lines and bad feelings between the same countries that we are always talking about needing to work together to solve the major problems facing the planet.

Also, don't forget what kind of political atmosphere resulted from the last major protectionist trade war in the 1930s.  Intentionally going down the path of creating economic hardship for everyone creates the risk of even more hardline, extremist political leaders. 

From a personal point of view I totally get the utter distaste for Trump and his policies, but I have no interest in making the world a much more dangerous place just for the satisfaction of being able to say "I told you so"...or, "We win".

:2c:

 

[Blackadder1916]

Question is, can Mexico get replacement pork as cheap and easily? Now it will all have to come from overseas, even by Canada, so shipped to port, loaded on a ship and then to a Mexican Port, the trucked through the country. Not sure how many ships go from Canada to Mexico and return, but I suspect it's not that many.

I suppose Canadian pork producers could ship it the same way they currently ship the $194 million of pig meat that they currently export to Mexico.  Of course that is a miniscule market share compared to the $1.5 billion that American producers exported to Mexico last year, but then we exported $1.4 billion of pork products to the USA last year and they sent us $792 million last year.  Now if the Americans can't be competitive with Mexico pork tariffs added and China putting restrictions on them as well, they will probably look to Canada to offloaded that surplus pork.  So maybe we might see pork prices go down with a glut of American hogs  . . .  and on and on.  It's that integrated economy thing again.

Most Canadian exports to Mexico probably already go by ground surface - truck and rail.  These guys don't think it's a unusual deal.
http://www.cpr.ca/en/customer-resources/shipping-guides/customs-and-border-services

Shipping to Mexico

Help us serve you better by including the following information on all electronic data interchange (EDI) billing of shipments to Mexico from Canada or the U.S.:
1.Final consignee in Mexico, address, city, state
2.Importer name in Mexico, address, city, state
3.Customs broker in Mexico, address, city, state
4.U.S. Freight Forwarder, address, city, state
5.CAED or B13A number if exported from Canada
6.Internal Transaction Number (ITN); or Post-Departure Filing citation for all U.S. origin goods exported from the U.S. to Mexico

For information on shipping to or from Mexico, please contact the CP Mexico office at:
011-52 553-000-4070 (from anywhere in North America)
01-553-000-4070 (from anywhere​​​ in Mexico)

https://www.milgram.com/milgram/en/services/transportation/mexico
http://giggexpress.ca/en/services-trucking-canada-mexico.php
http://www.countrytransport.com/EN/home.php

Or are we now going to start speculating on the USA closing the borders to transnational shipping?

 

[a_majoor]

Altair, like so many of the chattering class, is busy cherrypicking singular stories to buttress his point, without seeing the larger picture. This isn't limited to trade, despite a barrage of "oh, the poor children" stories in the media, the public still is heavily supportive of the President's position on immigration, and American's attitude about family separation seems to be summarized by "send them all back together...", a huge propaganda fail by the media and the Left.

While there is no doubt that individuals and companies may feel the sting of tariffs in a trade war, the stated overall objective is to change the current trade regime which the President feels is heavily unbalanced against the United States. Every cheese maker and medium sized manufacturer in the EU, the Anglosphere and Sinosphere will also be feeling the bite, and they will also be putting pressure on their respective governments as well. President Trump has the advantage that he is sitting on a single unified market, while the various other nations and groupings not only compete against the United State, but against each other. Canada will discover that the EU, China, Australia or even Zimbabwe are not going to be welcoming Canadian goods with open arms, or if they do, will be imposing restrictions on Canada which we will have little power to protest, given our relative size and market size and power (well, maybe we can get a level playing field with Zimbabwe, but I doubt they'll do any Gender Based Analysis on their trade practices). The same story will be repeated throughout the world, and even within trade blocks like the EU there will be a great deal of stress (exacerbating their own "own goal" with immigration).

I'm afraid the Altair's of the world will be rather disappointed. Even is a putative "united front" is created, the situation will be rather like OPEC, where the incentives to cheat will be pretty much built in and the global market will be a realm of backstabbing and underhanded deals, very few of which will be in our favour. The only potential winner might be China, which of course will be imposing rules and regulations on trade which will make the current situation seem like Adam Smith's fondest daydreams.

Of course the President understands how to put pressure on people in order to achieve his negotiating aims (Kim Jong Un, anyone?), this game has far more players and moving parts, so there will be a much more complicated series of events over a much longer time frame to follow before things get resolved.

 

[Altair]

Altair, like so many of the chattering class, is busy cherrypicking singular stories to buttress his point, without seeing the larger picture. This isn't limited to trade, despite a barrage of "oh, the poor children" stories in the media, the public still is heavily supportive of the President's position on immigration, and American's attitude about family separation seems to be summarized by "send them all back together...", a huge propaganda fail by the media and the Left.

While there is no doubt that individuals and companies may feel the sting of tariffs in a trade war, the stated overall objective is to change the current trade regime which the President feels is heavily unbalanced against the United States. Every cheese maker and medium sized manufacturer in the EU, the Anglosphere and Sinosphere will also be feeling the bite, and they will also be putting pressure on their respective governments as well. President Trump has the advantage that he is sitting on a single unified market, while the various other nations and groupings not only compete against the United State, but against each other. Canada will discover that the EU, China, Australia or even Zimbabwe are not going to be welcoming Canadian goods with open arms, or if they do, will be imposing restrictions on Canada which we will have little power to protest, given our relative size and market size and power (well, maybe we can get a level playing field with Zimbabwe, but I doubt they'll do any Gender Based Analysis on their trade practices). The same story will be repeated throughout the world, and even within trade blocks like the EU there will be a great deal of stress (exacerbating their own "own goal" with immigration).

I'm afraid the Altair's of the world will be rather disappointed. Even is a putative "united front" is created, the situation will be rather like OPEC, where the incentives to cheat will be pretty much built in and the global market will be a realm of backstabbing and underhanded deals, very few of which will be in our favour. The only potential winner might be China, which of course will be imposing rules and regulations on trade which will make the current situation seem like Adam Smith's fondest daydreams.

Of course the President understands how to put pressure on people in order to achieve his negotiating aims (Kim Jong Un, anyone?), this game has far more players and moving parts, so there will be a much more complicated series of events over a much longer time frame to follow before things get resolved.

You seem to think that America is invincible on trade and doesn't need the global market.

Reality check,  it does.  And when you have players like the EU and China deciding to join sides against you,  you've lost in more ways than just trade.

 

[PPCLI Guy]

Altair, like so many of the chattering class, is busy cherrypicking singular stories to buttress his point, without seeing the larger picture. This isn't limited to trade, despite a barrage of "oh, the poor children" stories in the media, the public still is heavily supportive of the President's position on immigration, and American's attitude about family separation seems to be summarized by "send them all back together...", a huge propaganda fail by the media and the Left.

While there is no doubt that individuals and companies may feel the sting of tariffs in a trade war, the stated overall objective is to change the current trade regime which the President feels is heavily unbalanced against the United States. Every cheese maker and medium sized manufacturer in the EU, the Anglosphere and Sinosphere will also be feeling the bite, and they will also be putting pressure on their respective governments as well. President Trump has the advantage that he is sitting on a single unified market, while the various other nations and groupings not only compete against the United State, but against each other. Canada will discover that the EU, China, Australia or even Zimbabwe are not going to be welcoming Canadian goods with open arms, or if they do, will be imposing restrictions on Canada which we will have little power to protest, given our relative size and market size and power (well, maybe we can get a level playing field with Zimbabwe, but I doubt they'll do any Gender Based Analysis on their trade practices). The same story will be repeated throughout the world, and even within trade blocks like the EU there will be a great deal of stress (exacerbating their own "own goal" with immigration).

I'm afraid the Altair's of the world will be rather disappointed. Even is a putative "united front" is created, the situation will be rather like OPEC, where the incentives to cheat will be pretty much built in and the global market will be a realm of backstabbing and underhanded deals, very few of which will be in our favour. The only potential winner might be China, which of course will be imposing rules and regulations on trade which will make the current situation seem like Adam Smith's fondest daydreams.

Of course the President understands how to put pressure on people in order to achieve his negotiating aims (Kim Jong Un, anyone?), this game has far more players and moving parts, so there will be a much more complicated series of events over a much longer time frame to follow before things get resolved.

What happened to the Libertarian in you?

 

[Cloud Cover]

What happened to the Libertarian in you?

What happened to Libertarians, period. 

Let’s be serious, Trump has no plan, and plans to have no plan. He has a filthy, self indulgent, narcissistic brain and the Wharton school should refund and disclaim all responsibility from him. He is a political synonym of “disruption” that cleanses companies that become complacent and he doesn’t even know how it happens but still takes credit. He has managed to be philosopher king and village idiot of an island admidst a digital stream that has swollen to become a river of dictionary vomit on Twitter. 

 

[Altair]

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/06/25/trump-says-hes-surprised-by-harley-davidson-moving-some-production-.html

President Donald Trump said Monday he was "surprised" by Harley-Davidson's announcement that it will move some of its production out of the U.S. to avoid European Union tariffs.

Trump again accused the EU of engaging in trade practices that "hurt" the American economy.

 

He is surprised.  Surprised. Surprised that his trade actions have consequences. Seriously?  Oh boy,  if he is surprised now I can't wait to see him surprised later.

Amateur hour.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Nations can't impose tariffs "on America" any more than America can impose tariffs "on them".  Tariffs are paid by domestic consumers on purchases of foreign goods (imports).  When the US imposes a tariff on Canadian imports, it's actually a tax "on Americans".  Tariffs lessen the domestic appetite for foreign goods, and increase the cost of foreign inputs required for domestic outputs.

 

[Altair]

Nations can't impose tariffs "on America" any more than America can impose tariffs "on them".  Tariffs are paid by domestic consumers on purchases of foreign goods (imports).  When the US imposes a tariff on Canadian imports, it's actually a tax "on Americans".  Tariffs lessen the domestic appetite for foreign goods, and increase the cost of foreign inputs required for domestic outputs.

Not necessarily.

In the case of China putting tariffs on American Soybeans.

The Chinese can then just source Brazilian soybeans, Chinese importers have no obligation to buy American Soybeans.

 

[Journeyman]

Let’s be serious, Trump has no plan, and plans to have no plan. He has a filthy, self indulgent, narcissistic brain and the Wharton school should refund and disclaim all responsibility from him. He is a political synonym of “disruption” that cleanses companies that become complacent and he doesn’t even know how it happens but still takes credit. He has managed to be philosopher king and village idiot of an island amidst a digital stream that has swollen to become a river of dictionary vomit on Twitter.

:rofl:  Stop beating around the bush and tell us how you really  feel.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I suppose Canadian pork producers could ship it the same way they currently ship the $194 million of pig meat that they currently export to Mexico.  Of course that is a miniscule market share compared to the $1.5 billion that American producers exported to Mexico last year, but then we exported $1.4 billion of pork products to the USA last year and they sent us $792 million last year.  Now if the Americans can't be competitive with Mexico pork tariffs added and China putting restrictions on them as well, they will probably look to Canada to offloaded that surplus pork.  So maybe we might see pork prices go down with a glut of American hogs  . . .  and on and on.  It's that integrated economy thing again.

Most Canadian exports to Mexico probably already go by ground surface - truck and rail.  These guys don't think it's a unusual deal.
http://www.cpr.ca/en/customer-resources/shipping-guides/customs-and-border-serviceshttps://www.milgram.com/milgram/en/services/transportation/mexico
http://giggexpress.ca/en/services-trucking-canada-mexico.php
http://www.countrytransport.com/EN/home.php

Or are we now going to start speculating on the USA closing the borders to transnational shipping?

If there is a bit of a trade war and Mexico is tariffing US pork, you think they are going to easily allow us to tranship our pork across their country and borders to circumvent their products? We might also be part of a trade war and with NAFTA defunct, we may not be able to easily ship products across them.

 

[mariomike]

He has managed to be philosopher king and village idiot of an island admidst a digital stream that has swollen to become a river of dictionary vomit on Twitter.

What a sentence!

 

[Altair]

http://business.financialpost.com/transportation/autos/trump-threatens-harley-with-big-tax-on-bikes-imported-to-u-s

This trade war is off to a great start.

“Harley must know that they won’t be able to sell back into U.S. without paying a big tax!” Trump said on Twitter Tuesday.

A Harley-Davidson should never be built in another country-never! Their employees and customers are already very angry at them. If they move, watch, it will be the beginning of the end – they surrendered, they quit! The Aura will be gone and they will be taxed like never before!

Great, except the fact that

“To address the substantial cost of this tariff burden long-term, Harley-Davidson will be implementing a plan to shift production of motorcycles for EU destinations from the U.S. to its international facilities to avoid the tariff burden,” the company said.

The production moving overseas will be to be able to sell to their international markets, first because the USA pulled out of the TPP, and now because of tariffs the European placed on their products originating from the USA, so these are not meant to be sold in the US market, thus...no tax.

But the passion, look at that passion.

 

[Journeyman]

"Their employees and customers are already very angry at them."

Speaking only for myself, as someone who owns two Harleys, I'm not remotely angry at H-D -- baffled about Trump supporters, who are as irrationally loyal as Maple Leaf fans, sure  -- but angry at Harley? Nope. 

Just another made-up Twitter "fact" from the Compulsive Liar-in-Chief.  :boring:

 

[GAP]

Hmmm.....A company adjusting it's manufacturing locations to take advantage of local area taxation .......criticized by the "supposed" billionaire businessman who has made a career of doing the same......what doesn't add up....

 

[Remius]

Speaking only for myself, as someone who owns two Harleys, I'm not remotely angry at H-D -- baffled about Trump supporters, who are as irrationally loyal as Maple Leaf fans, sure  -- but angry at Harley? Nope. 

Just another made-up Twitter "fact" from the Compulsive Liar-in-Chief.  :boring:

I find it funny that he is shocked.  H-D has to do what it has to do. 

Canadian tariffs take effect next week. 

Interesting article on US Bourbon in England.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/united-kingdom-bourbon-spirits-european-union-tariffs-american-products-1.4706348

The key take away I got from that is that aficionados will likely still want the product and be willing to pay for it.

Also this https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/china-opec-oil-tariffs-1.4713944 and how the trade war could realign the global oil market...

 

[Altair]

Hmmm.....A company adjusting it's manufacturing locations to take advantage of local area taxation .......criticized by the "supposed" billionaire businessman who has made a career of doing the same......what doesn't add up....

Even funnier that his daughter runs a clothing line that has everything manufactured in Indonesia, China, Vietnam, Ethiopia and Bangladesh.

Bet you wouldn't catch him raging about the Ivanka Trump clothing line needing pay a big tax like never before on products entering the US market.

 

[Altair]

I find it funny that he is shocked.  H-D has to do what it has to do. 

Canadian tariffs take effect next week. 

Interesting article on US Bourbon in England.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/united-kingdom-bourbon-spirits-european-union-tariffs-american-products-1.4706348

The key take away I got from that is that aficionados will likely still want the product and be willing to pay for it.

Also this https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/china-opec-oil-tariffs-1.4713944 and how the trade war could realign the global oil market...

Yeah, China buying Iranian oil and thus making the US embargo rather pointless is not out of the question.

And if 3.6 billion dollars of European tariffs on American goods is causing such a fuss, I'm going to enjoy the week after Canada day.

16.6 billion in Canadian tariffs. That's going to hurt some markets.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Hmmm.....A company adjusting it's manufacturing locations to take advantage of local area taxation .......criticized by the "supposed" billionaire businessman who has made a career of doing the same......what doesn't add up....

Like a certain PM with a foreign flagged shipping line?

 

[GAP]

Yup