US VS G7

[Jarnhamar]

The U.S in a short time span is abdicating its role as the leader of the free world. 

Yessir. People are upset when the US acts as the world police then the same people cry when the US says we're not the world police.
The same way people cried that Trump was going to start WW3 with Korea and turn around and cry when he meets their leader and appears to be de-escalating the while nuclear winter thing  :

Maybe this may turn out to be a good thing.

 

[Remius]

Yessir. People are upset when the US acts as the world police then the same people cry when the US says we're not the world police.
The same way people cried that Trump was going to start WW3 with Korea and turn around and cry when he meets their leader and appears to be de-escalating the while nuclear winter thing  :

Maybe this may turn out to be a good thing.

I’m not sure I want to see China or Russia fill the void.

Trump could have still have made his NK overture (the results of which are still undecided) without alienating all of the US allies just before doing it.

 

[QV]

A lot of countries were sure offended when Trump suggested they pay their fare share (2%) of defence spending.  How else will you be able to fund your social programs if you have to pay for that army/navy/air force?  A carbon tax price on carbon is one option, I hear.   

     

 

[Remius]

A lot of countries were sure offended when Trump suggested they pay their fare share (2%) of defence spending.  How else will you be able to fund your social programs if you have to pay for that army/navy/air force?  A carbon tax price on carbon is one option, I hear.   

   

I am fairly certain that this trade war would still be happening regardless of whether those countries increased their défense spending.

Edit:in fact it seems I was right. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-15/nato-members-post-new-defense-spending-rise-amid-trump-pressure

 

[Good2Golf]

Maybe Canada and the rest of Europe should help the US financially or if the US wanted to screw allies the US could just go full on isolationist.

Nothing the world hasn't seen from the U.S. before, with the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, which many economists attribute world-wide deepening and prolongation of the Great Depression.  Only this time, seems the U.S. is in much better position to screw over the rest of the world (until The Dragon calls in its debt marker).  Not sure that's something to be proud of...but it is the will of the people...

Regards
G2G

For those who are either: a) interested in said Dragon's ascendancy, or b) wish to refute charges that America is in decline, and no matter which, don't mind taking some time (approx. 20-min) to read...an interesting piece by Dr. Ferry de Kerckhove of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute:

A World Larger Than Trump’s: China’s

Executive Summary
While China's climb towards global, superpower status has now been underway for decades and is accelerating rapidly, that ascent is being helped enormously by the crisis of American leadership exemplified by Trump. This should be a major concern for the Unites States and the rest of the world. Through his “concession speech” at the United Nations on September 19, Trump has allowed a rekindling of the concept of spheres of influence. In Asia, China represents a model many hope to emulate to bring their people out of poverty. With it, for governments, comes the attraction of power unfettered by the shenanigans of democracy. In Europe, the U.S. foreign policy dearth has had allies looking for a new paradigm, order, stability and a minimum of predictability. China has taken over the number one rank as a donor or investing country in Africa and expects to invest half a trillion dollars in Latin America. The U.S. continues to exercise considerable influence over events, lead the fight against terrorism, brokers negotiations between foes, dominates a large chunk of the world economy, leads on innovations, and is the world’s preeminent military power. But under Trump, beneath all these evidences, confidence in the U.S. has been broken and uncertainty prevails.

Regards
G2G

 

[Cloud Cover]

  And do we see a break up of the republic itselfl

Really good question. I would posit that it is geographically, legally and economically intact but that’s about it. What other ties that bind remain is not clear to me. Politically, socially, culturally, state, community, neighbourhood and household they seem quite unravelled.  I would not be surprised if chunks of the military have no faith or personal loyalty to their CIC, I suspect a great number do not trust or respect him. Certainly the primary federal law enforcement agency and the national security apparatus are institutionally wary of the administration.

 

[Brad Sallows]

For those who might be interested, there is Jonah Goldberg's thesis in his recently published Suicide of the West.  Briefly: flavours of tribalism are the natural social and political organization of people; the principles and institutions of liberalism are not easy to come by and foster; only once in history (our current era) has (part of) humanity managed to find its current state of prosperity and liberty - Goldberg calls it the "Miracle" - by leveraging a critical mass of those principles and institutions; if tribalism is the mean to which everyone reverts, then liberalism requires constant upkeep and our status quo is (and always will be) unstable.

Everyone who supports a flavour of tribalism (populism, nationalism, class warfare, caste societies, identity politics, etc) is ultimately an enemy of liberty and prosperity; everyone who chips away at classical liberals until they throw in the towel and revert to the politics of tribalism is an enemy.

If the US is in the grip of populism and reverting more to the "us vs. them" posture, it is incumbent on the rest of the G7 to become less "us vs. them" until (hopefully) the US "recovers".  But that requires acknowledging and defending the correct principles and institutions, and eschewing the politics of tribalism.

 

[Cloud Cover]

Re: "Tribalism", it seems there is disagreement about what that even means as things fall apart: https://www.theatlantic.com/notes/2017/11/a-nation-of-tribes-and-members-of-the-tribe/544907/

 

[Altair]

For those who might be interested, there is Jonah Goldberg's thesis in his recently published Suicide of the West.  Briefly: flavours of tribalism are the natural social and political organization of people; the principles and institutions of liberalism are not easy to come by and foster; only once in history (our current era) has (part of) humanity managed to find its current state of prosperity and liberty - Goldberg calls it the "Miracle" - by leveraging a critical mass of those principles and institutions; if tribalism is the mean to which everyone reverts, then liberalism requires constant upkeep and our status quo is (and always will be) unstable.

Everyone who supports a flavour of tribalism (populism, nationalism, class warfare, caste societies, identity politics, etc) is ultimately an enemy of liberty and prosperity; everyone who chips away at classical liberals until they throw in the towel and revert to the politics of tribalism is an enemy.

If the US is in the grip of populism and reverting more to the "us vs. them" posture, it is incumbent on the rest of the G7 to become less "us vs. them" until (hopefully) the US "recovers".  But that requires acknowledging and defending the correct principles and institutions, and eschewing the politics of tribalism.

While the USA actively acts contrary to the shared interests of the G7 they should be expelled.

The other 6 members have the GDP and global reach and influence equal to the USA,  and would do better working together than meerly trying to stay together with the USA trying to rip them apart.

Might even be time to find new members to join,  Brazil for example.

 

[GR66]

While the USA actively acts contrary to the shared interests of the G7 they should be expelled.

The other 6 members have the GDP and global reach and influence equal to the USA,  and would do better working together than meerly trying to stay together with the USA trying to rip them apart.

Might even be time to find new members to join,  Brazil for example.

We shouldn't make any rash decisions.  We need to learn to be more patient and play the long game.  We know there are many in the US government and business world that disagree with Trump's trade policies.  Do what we've done and respond with measured and proportionate counter tariffs while at the same time politely and calmly (but firmly) reasserting our position and courting allies to our position.

There are mid-term elections coming up.  Let's see how that plays out.  Then let's see what happens in the next presidential election.  At the same time we can work on developing other markets and partners, but I don't see any need to rush out and burn bridges. 

Like it or not we are neighbours.  That's not going to change, so we better find ways of getting along even when we disagree. 

 

[Fishbone Jones]

I'm not an economic genius, so someone can explain what is wrong with Trump's idea of true free trade. Drop all tariffs and surcharges, an open and free global marketplace?

 

[Altair]

We shouldn't make any rash decisions.  We need to learn to be more patient and play the long game.  We know there are many in the US government and business world that disagree with Trump's trade policies.  Do what we've done and respond with measured and proportionate counter tariffs while at the same time politely and calmly (but firmly) reasserting our position and courting allies to our position.

There are mid-term elections coming up.  Let's see how that plays out.  Then let's see what happens in the next presidential election.  At the same time we can work on developing other markets and partners, but I don't see any need to rush out and burn bridges. 

Like it or not we are neighbours.  That's not going to change, so we better find ways of getting along even when we disagree.

its not US business men and women coming to G7 meetings. Its not US business men and women who are trying to work out policy. It's the US president and his administration. US business men and women have no power to set US trade or economic policy. 

As for playing the long game,  the only game the G7 is going to be playing in the next 2-6 years is trying to keep the group from tearing itself apart. There is a precedent for this. Russia was kicked out after they were deemed to be working counter to the value and ideals of the group. At this point,  America is dangerously close to being a nuisance and disruption in the G7 and their shared goals.

Expel the US from the group until they are ready to rejoin western democracies in a constructive manner,  till then,  the G6 would work much better than the current G7.

On top of that,  the USA needs to know there are consequences for acting the way it is. No free pass.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Expelling the US is the kind of thing Trump would do if some other member of a group were kicking up a fuss and he had the authority.

The other G-7 members should not be drawn into unnecessary and/or unwinnable battles.  They must not lose sight of their aim(s).  Part of being the "adults" in the room would be the willingness to lose some "face", if that's what it takes to hold things together until some acceptable resolution is reached and Trump loses interest and moves on to whatever grabs his attention next.

Goldberg goes into enough depth on his notion of "tribalism".  Simple cultural quiffs - costume, cuisine, language - are not at stake, nor is "tribe" as a term of art in different contexts.  "Tribalism" is in-group versus out-group.  An example would be freedom of speech for everyone in my tribe because "X"; limits on everyone else.

 

[Altair]

I'm not an economic genius, so someone can explain what is wrong with Trump's idea of true free trade. Drop all tariffs and surcharges, an open and free global marketplace?

America has among the highest tariffs in the G7. Canada among the lowest.

This isn't about free trade,  or balanced trade. This is about every trade relationship tilted in Americas favor.  And when other countries don't just roll over and take it,  they try to up the stakes. Case in point,  the american government is looking to slap tariffs on the canadian auto sector after canada tariffs on american good take place,  America is looking to slap tariffs on 200 billion dollars of Chinese good if they retaliate on the tariffs placed on 50 billion dollars of Chinese goods.

This is going into full protectionist mode,  a full global trade war in which america has no allies.

America can win a trade war versus Europe. It can win a trade war versus canada or Mexico. It can win a trade war against china. It cannot win a trade war against all of them at the same time,  although its the global economy that wil take the real beating.

 

[Altair]

Expelling the US is the kind of thing Trump would do if some other member of a group were kicking up a fuss and he had the authority.

The other G-7 members should not be drawn into unnecessary and/or unwinnable battles.  They must not lose sight of their aim(s).  Part of being the "adults" in the room would be the willingness to lose some "face", if that's what it takes to hold things together until some acceptable resolution is reached and Trump loses interest and moves on to whatever grabs his attention next.

Goldberg goes into enough depth on his notion of "tribalism".  Simple cultural quiffs - costume, cuisine, language - are not at stake, nor is "tribe" as a term of art in different contexts.  "Tribalism" is in-group versus out-group.  An example would be freedom of speech for everyone in my tribe because "X"; limits on everyone else.

That is ridiculous.

There is no reason that leaders of other  sovereign nations should have to try to work around the destabilizing influence that the US represents at this point. The G7 can not get any work done with the current leadership of the USA,  and if they cannot get any work done then what exactly is the point of the group?

Every initiative they try to forward is a unwinnable battle. Every trade initiative is a unwinnable battle. The environment is a unwinnable battle. Women's rights is a unwinnable battle. All because of one member who is moving 180 degrees in the opposite direction of the other 6.

This isn't the USA and friends group. This is the G7. America doesn't get to set the agenda and drag the group where it doesn't want to go.america doesn't get to stop in its tracks the agenda and goals of the other 6.

This is honestly a case where,  like Russia,  america can either get with the program or find another group to join that shares its newfound values.

 

[PuckChaser]

This isn't the USA and friends group. This is the G7. America doesn't get to set the agenda and drag the group where it doesn't want to go.america doesn't get to stop in its tracks the agenda and goals of the other 6.

USA GDP: 19 Trillion


Canada GDP: 1.8 Trillion
Mexico GDP: 1.1 Trillion
UK GDP: 2.7 Trillion
France GDP: 2.6 Trillion
Germany GDP: 3.6 Trillion
Japan GDP: 5 Trillion
Italy GDP: 1.9 Trillion

18.5 trillion dollars.

When they have more GDP than the combined of the other 6, they kinda do get to set the agenda. Just because they haven't before, doesn't mean it isn't right. You may not like the US bullying people around, but they have leverage and are using it.

 

[Altair]

When they have more GDP than the combined of the other 6, they kinda do get to set the agenda. Just because they haven't before, doesn't mean it isn't right. You may not like the US bullying people around, but they have leverage and are using it.

let's them exercise that leverage on their own.

The G6 can get more done sans the USA now than with it.

 

[Brad Sallows]

>Every initiative they try to forward is a unwinnable battle. Every trade initiative is a unwinnable battle. The environment is a unwinnable battle. Women's rights is a unwinnable battle. All because of one member who is moving 180 degrees in the opposite direction of the other 6.

Nothing stops them from pursuing any of those as a "coalition of the willing", neither including the US in the agreements nor excluding the US from the G-7.  In fact, I'm curious to see just how far they can move on any of those issues.

>There is no reason that leaders of other  sovereign nations should have to try to work around the destabilizing influence that the US represents at this point.

Except for all of the reasons you mentioned that I included above, plus however many more anyone can think of.  I go further: it's imperative for the remaining members (and their leadership) to swallow their own pride, soothe Trump's ego to the extent necessary, and work around the US when there is no better alternative.  Trump has used up all the latitude for bombast, posturing, bullying, and blustering - there's no room for any of the others to do anything but Serious Policy Achievement.

 

[Altair]

>Every initiative they try to forward is a unwinnable battle. Every trade initiative is a unwinnable battle. The environment is a unwinnable battle. Women's rights is a unwinnable battle. All because of one member who is moving 180 degrees in the opposite direction of the other 6.

Nothing stops them from pursuing any of those as a "coalition of the willing", neither including the US in the agreements nor excluding the US from the G-7.  In fact, I'm curious to see just how far they can move on any of those issues.

>There is no reason that leaders of other  sovereign nations should have to try to work around the destabilizing influence that the US represents at this point.

Except for all of the reasons you mentioned that I included above, plus however many more anyone can think of.  I go further: it's imperative for the remaining members (and their leadership) to swallow their own pride, soothe Trump's ego to the extent necessary, and work around the US when there is no better alternative.  Trump has used up all the latitude for bombast, posturing, bullying, and blustering - there's no room for any of the others to do anything but Serious Policy Achievement.

Macron,  Trudeau have both tried to get on the Americans good side.

Both have been hit by tariffs,  both might be hit with more tariffs,  and Trudeau has had the added privilage of being the target of a twitter blast.

The time for playing nice with america is over. If anything,  its time to start activity working against the USA if they ramp their protectionist agenda. How do you have a group where the member of six are working against one at the same time as the one is working against the other six?

No, its probably time to kick the USA out,  and then use the group to actively target American industries in swing states to make sure the average american feels the consequence of the decisions american leadership is taking.

 

[GR66]

Macron,  Trudeau have both tried to get on the Americans good side.

Both have been hit by tariffs,  both might be hit with more tariffs,  and Trudeau has had the added privilage of being the target of a twitter blast.

The time for playing nice with america is over. If anything,  its time to start activity working against the USA if they ramp their protectionist agenda. How do you have a group where the member of six are working against one at the same time as the one is working against the other six?

No, its probably time to kick the USA out,  and then use the group to actively target American industries in swing states to make sure the average american feels the consequence of the decisions american leadership is taking.

Kicking the US out of the G7 would be biting off your nose to spite your face.  Yes it's the Trump administration that goes to the G7, etc. and not the members of Congress, the Senate, business leaders, activists and members of State legislatures.  But it is those people who vote in 2018 and 2020. 

Being reactionary to Trump sets you up as the perfect target for his bombast...see, I told you those Canadians are trying to screw us over in trade, etc.  Why play into his hands by proving his assertions of us being a national security threat as being true?  It's not like the rest of the G7 can't just ignore Trump and work together without the drama of kicking the USA out.  Do what we feel needs to be done.  Set the example for others to follow.  Be the adults in the room.