US VS G7

[Remius]

I think the US is still and will always be a reliable ally, Canada can't afford it not to be.  And the US knows this.  Don't you think it would be better for us if we perhaps pursued some things to increase our standing in the world?  To be a serious middle power?  To be actually be able to project some force if required?  Our present situation on defence is pathetic and we are killing our resource sector.  If just those two things were well sorted we would no doubt be two things: a better ally to our friends and we would have a better negotiating position in the world.

Sort of like France and Great Britain?  Where is that getting them?  A link I provided showed that we actually increased our NATO spending and it doesn't seem to have made any difference in any negotiations.  Facts are ignored by this President.  So it really doesn't matter if there isn't actually a trade deficit or if we actually don't pay tariffs on shoes (which we smuggle in apparently).  The President thinks we "helped the US" in WW2 and WW1.  "Truthiness" at its best.

Our standing in the world isn't the problem but our standing with the US is because we can't count on actual facts to be something they will consider.

So I agree with you.  The former leader of the free world cannot be relied on and we should create stronger ties with our Europe, China etc.  At least we can count on how they operate as opposed to the unpredictability south of us.

 

[Remius]

Merge with the US that will show them. ;D

Lol.  I hear California is looking for a new home  ;D

 

[tomahawk6]

No matter  if they get the votes they wont be going anywhere.Staying makes more sense,but I wouldn't stop them.I suspect that conservatives would split the state into several parts.

 

[a_majoor]

Rather astonishing that neither the chattering classes or many of the commentators here seem to remember the dictum that "Nations have no permanent friends or allies, only permanent interests".

President Trump has been speaking about trade deficits for decades now (there is a YouTube clip of him in 1989 speaking about the same issues he campaigned on in 2016), and sees eliminating or drastically reducing the US trade deficit as being a key US interest. If we want to be relevant, then we need to recognize the US interest and see how it aligns with our interests, and act accordingly.

I also suggest that looking to the G6 nations to take up the slack of 20% of our GDP is a fools game, does anyone really think the EU, Japan or anyone else is going to step up, unless they can achieve the best deal for themselves? China and Russia might step in, if only to poke a stick in the American's eye (probably not a great idea), and they will be looking for very predatory concessions from us.

This is simply a further example of a thesis I have had, where changes in technology, economics and demographics have strained the institutions and social structures erected in earlier ages to the breaking point. The "New Deal/Great Society" model of American politics is collapsing under a mountain of debt, the need for institutions like NATO have become irrelevant in a changing security environment and even trade deals like NAFTA need to be reexamined under the new economic conditions.

What makes this discussion difficult is that while we can see the collapse of old institutions, we cannot really see the path of the future nor confidently predict what will arise to replace  them. And obviously the people who benefit the most from the Old Order will fight tooth and nail to prevent the loss of the structures and institutions which benefit them, so there won't be a clean transition.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Maybe because no one trusts what he says from day to day.  He drops a bunch of tariffs on his allies then tells them there should be no tariffs.  Huh?  Negotiating tactic? Maybe.  And maybe they’d aren’t buying it.

http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-suggests-dropping-all-tariffs-trade-barriers-at-g7-summit-2018-6

And you don’t just jump into something without looking at it first. Especially with this president.

I don't buy that. Everything starts with an idea, then it gets explored. It costs nothing to listen. Just because you don't trust someone doesn't mean you can't at least kick the can down the road and see where it leads. There's nothing to 'jump' into. Nothing will be done without talks, just like the G7 started with and Pan Pacific or any other trade or international committee. To sweep something off the table, without any type of consideration is not the way you move ahead.

 

[Altair]

I don't buy that. Everything starts with an idea, then it gets explored. It costs nothing to listen. Just because you don't trust someone doesn't mean you can't at least kick the can down the road and see where it leads. There's nothing to 'jump' into. Nothing will be done without talks, just like the G7 started with and Pan Pacific or any other trade or international committee. To sweep something off the table, without any type of consideration is not the way you move ahead.

Nothing said by the USA right now is worth listening to.

Facts don't matter,  numbers don't matter,  and worst yet,  positions flip flop daily. 

The USA would be shunned if it wasn't the most powerful nation on earth.  No other nation would be taken seriously acting like this. As such,  it's best for the west to simply work around and without the USA than try to seriously work with it.

 

[a_majoor]

Just for people who see things in binary terms, Instapundit has posted and excerpt form the WSJ. German car makers are offering to drop tariffs on autos and auto parts in exchange for the United States to do the same. Since President Trump's initial offer was actually to drop tariffs (more specifically he wanted that to be the longer term agenda of trade between G7 nations), at least one sector in one nation is trying to move in that direction.

This suggests that there is plenty of room to work without attempting to do a "tit for tat" trade war (particularly when Canada-US trade makes up 20% of our GDP, while US-Canada trade makes up @ 1% of their GDP....). The US negotiating tactic is really an extension of "The Art of the Deal", which was published in 1989, so it is pretty amazing that no one seems to have caught onto that yet. For aspiring journalists who may be reading this thread, the book is in most libraries with the catalogue number 333.33092 Tru.

https://pjmedia.com/instapundit/299879/

WINNING? Germany’s Largest Auto Makers Back Abolition of EU-U.S. Car Import Tariffs. “The U.S. ambassador to Germany is expected to relay the industry offer in meetings with Trump administration.”

Their proposal, people familiar with the situation say, is simple: Abandon all import tariffs for cars between the European Union and the U.S.

That would mean scrapping the EU’s 10% tax on auto imports from the U.S. and other countries and the 2.5% duty on auto imports in the U.S. As a prerequisite, the Europeans want Mr. Trump’s threat of imposing a 25% border tax on European auto imports off the table.

Over the past few weeks, Mr. Grenell has held closed-door meetings with the chiefs of all major German automotive companies, including bilateral meetings with the CEOs of Daimler AG , BMW AG and Volkswagen AG , which operate plants in the U.S. Overall, Germany’s auto makers and suppliers provide 116,500 jobs in the U.S., according to the Association of German Automotive Manufacturers.

During these talks, which the ambassador initiated, the managers said they would back the scrapping of all import tariffs on trans-Atlantic trade in automotive products as the keystone of a broader deal covering industrial goods. The German government is on board and Mr. Grenell promised to support the idea, according to U.S. and German officials.

Excellent.

 

[Altair]

Just for people who see things in binary terms, Instapundit has posted and excerpt form the WSJ. German car makers are offering to drop tariffs on autos and auto parts in exchange for the United States to do the same. Since President Trump's initial offer was actually to drop tariffs (more specifically he wanted that to be the longer term agenda of trade between G7 nations), at least one sector in one nation is trying to move in that direction.

This suggests that there is plenty of room to work without attempting to do a "tit for tat" trade war (particularly when Canada-US trade makes up 20% of our GDP, while US-Canada trade makes up @ 1% of their GDP....). The US negotiating tactic is really an extension of "The Art of the Deal", which was published in 1989, so it is pretty amazing that no one seems to have caught onto that yet. For aspiring journalists who may be reading this thread, the book is in most libraries with the catalogue number 333.33092 Tru.

https://pjmedia.com/instapundit/299879/

great,  except Germany cannot make independent trade deals, it must go through the European Commission.

Good luck with that.

 

[Brad Sallows]

>If they hit us with tariffs on auto then that would be cause to go after pharma patents as mentioned by a few.

So your solution is to continue the downward spiral until the US surrenders?

Which country do you suppose will suffer the most long-lasting damage?

 

[Altair]

>If they hit us with tariffs on auto then that would be cause to go after pharma patents as mentioned by a few.

So your solution is to continue the downward spiral until the US surrenders?

Which country do you suppose will suffer the most long-lasting damage?

What would you suggest?

Simply let the USA impose as many tariffs as possible without any repercussions?

 

[CBH99]

One thing I think we should all remember is that Trump doesn't control the US - Congress & the Senate do.  And he is losing support unbelievably quickly in both of those, to the point where an angry & evasive Rose O'Donnell doesn't even want to do the press briefings anymore.  (Sorry, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, my bad...)

To be fair, her job must be truly difficult.  And I mean that.  Getting infront of the press on a daily basis, and trying to rationally explain the motives, reasoning, thought processes, and actions of the Trump administration...I don't think any of us could do that job, and not be forced to lie through our teeth & know how transparent the lies are.


Back on point - there can only be so much disruption in key markets & key sectors before lawmakers take drastic steps to protect their turf.  From both parties.  And many of those Congressmen & Senators are already voicing their deep concerns about Trump's position on this.

It isn't just us.  It's the EU & China also.  So whether we implement our own tariffs on pharma & a few other things, and the EU does the same, and China does the same -- it adds up, and it adds up quickly.  Does he really want a trade war with their 3 largest trading partners?  Nope.

Americans will whine & bitch if the price of gas goes up more than a few cents.  Imagine everything getting more expensive?  Cars?  Clothing?  Food?  Groceries?  Gas?  etc etc


At the end of the day, Congress & the Senate won't allow for too much disruption before they say "Yeah, no, we're going back to how things were."  Trump has learned the hard way, a few times now, that just because your the President doesn't mean you actually get to do what you want.  (Muslim ban?  Great Lakes clean-up?  etc etc)

 

[Remius]

>If they hit us with tariffs on auto then that would be cause to go after pharma patents as mentioned by a few.

So your solution is to continue the downward spiral until the US surrenders?

Which country do you suppose will suffer the most long-lasting damage?

I would rather my country not turtle.  Trump has already made false statements and reasoning to make his points against Canada to pander to his base.  I’d rather see Canada push back against that. 

 

[Remius]

One thing I think we should all remember is that Trump doesn't control the US - Congress & the Senate do.  And he is losing support unbelievably quickly in both of those, to the point where an angry & evasive Rose O'Donnell doesn't even want to do the press briefings anymore.  (Sorry, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, my bad...)

To be fair, her job must be truly difficult.  And I mean that.  Getting infront of the press on a daily basis, and trying to rationally explain the motives, reasoning, thought processes, and actions of the Trump administration...I don't think any of us could do that job, and not be forced to lie through our teeth & know how transparent the lies are.


Back on point - there can only be so much disruption in key markets & key sectors before lawmakers take drastic steps to protect their turf.  From both parties.  And many of those Congressmen & Senators are already voicing their deep concerns about Trump's position on this.

It isn't just us.  It's the EU & China also.  So whether we implement our own tariffs on pharma & a few other things, and the EU does the same, and China does the same -- it adds up, and it adds up quickly.  Does he really want a trade war with their 3 largest trading partners?  Nope.

Americans will whine & ***** if the price of gas goes up more than a few cents.  Imagine everything getting more expensive?  Cars?  Clothing?  Food?  Groceries?  Gas?  etc etc


At the end of the day, Congress & the Senate won't allow for too much disruption before they say "Yeah, no, we're going back to how things were."  Trump has learned the hard way, a few times now, that just because your the President doesn't mean you actually get to do what you want.  (Muslim ban?  Great Lakes clean-up?  etc etc)

Yep.  And this whole child separation at the border has shown that with enough pressure he can cave. 

 

[tomahawk6]

Any Republican that opposes the President has lost their re-election or decided to retire. The public is fed up with their obstructionism of his agenda.

 

[FJAG]

Any Republican that opposes the President has lost their re-election or decided to retire. The public is fed up with their obstructionism of his agenda.

You confuse one element of the public with the public in general. As the extreme end of the Republican Party clings to the Gong Show that is the US Presidency, the middle group will move away from it. Even now key Republicans from past administrations, like Steve Schmidt, are abandoning the Republican Party.

https://www.denverpost.com/2018/06/20/steve-schmidt-republican-party/

There will come a time, IMHO, where not just "elite" conservatives, but the common man will see the light.

[cheers]

 

[Jarnhamar]

One thing I think we should all remember is that Trump doesn't control the US - Congress & the Senate do.  And he is losing support unbelievably quickly in both of those, to the point where an angry & evasive Rose O'Donnell doesn't even want to do the press briefings anymore.  (Sorry, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, my bad...)

To be fair, her job must be truly difficult.  And I mean that.  Getting infront of the press on a daily basis, and trying to rationally explain the motives, reasoning, thought processes, and actions of the Trump administration...I don't think any of us could do that job, and not be forced to lie through our teeth & know how transparent the lies are.


Back on point - there can only be so much disruption in key markets & key sectors before lawmakers take drastic steps to protect their turf.  From both parties.  And many of those Congressmen & Senators are already voicing their deep concerns about Trump's position on this.

It isn't just us.  It's the EU & China also.  So whether we implement our own tariffs on pharma & a few other things, and the EU does the same, and China does the same -- it adds up, and it adds up quickly.  Does he really want a trade war with their 3 largest trading partners?  Nope.

Americans will whine & bitch if the price of gas goes up more than a few cents.  Imagine everything getting more expensive?  Cars?  Clothing?  Food?  Groceries?  Gas?  etc etc


At the end of the day, Congress & the Senate won't allow for too much disruption before they say "Yeah, no, we're going back to how things were."  Trump has learned the hard way, a few times now, that just because your the President doesn't mean you actually get to do what you want.  (Muslim ban?  Great Lakes clean-up?  etc etc)

Oh ya. Americans are fed up, Trump probably won't have a job by the end of the week.

 

[Infanteer]

Lol.  The usual refrain is that democratic governments aren't good at statecraft and working the international system because they only see things in 4 (or 5) year cycles.  Good statecraft requires looking beyond electoral cycles.

Some of you here aren't even looking past the next news cycle.  Look to the long game - the Canadian-American relationship has survived worse (look how Nixon and Trudeau Sr. got on) and is greater than the politik between election cycles.

 

[mariomike]

As the extreme end of the Republican Party clings to the Gong Show that is the US Presidency, the middle group will move away from it.  [cheers]

Chuck was the ringmaster and tormenter. He said, “a really bad review means the show will be on for years”.

But, what do the critics know? 

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Yep.  And this whole child separation at the border has shown that with enough pressure he can cave.

Cave or do the right thing? He didn't write the law.

 

[Altair]

Cave or do the right thing? He didn't write the law.

That's a cop out.

He chose to apply the law in that manner. Then he caved to public outrage to stop doing it.