2025 Federal Election - 28 Apr 25

[Navy_Pete]

Everyone knows my opinion of polls. However, we've been welded to the results published by the aggregate 338Canada.

While bumbling around the webz this morn, I came across some polls on Yahoo News. They are much more pointed in their questions. What is interesting though, is that they are voluntary, open to anyone and not defined by an audience chosen by a polling firm.

What is the most interesting though is that the responding audience numbers between 50,000 to almost 100,000 respondents. Much larger, more diverse and less partisan than the audience(s) polled by the professionals.

I'm posting this out of interest. I am not defending anything. Read them yourself and draw your own conclusions. Perhaps things aren't as clear, cut and dried as the MSM and professional pollers suggest.

Vote in our Canada federal election 2025 polls: Which leader won the debates? Who do you want to be the next PM?

Yahoo News Canada curated a list of polls on issues ranging from Trump's annexation threat to the cost of living crisis so you can make your voice count as the federal leaders fight out it in a critical debate week going into the election day on April 28

ca.news.yahoo.com

One more tidbit from the people who make a living working the odds.

Bettors strongly back Conservative win, despite a Liberal polling lead

Seventy per cent of the bets placed on the winner of the federal election are on the Conservative party

ca.news.yahoo.com

The issue with online polls is that they aren't actually random, and in this case, possibly anyone could have filled it out multiple times (IRL or with bots) and no real verification that they are even Canadians.

Have gotten a few calls over the years from places like Ipsos, and they do a bit of verification that you are who you say you are, and have methodoloy built in so that the sample size is large enough and random enough that it's considered statistically significant. 338Canada aggregate polls similarly have a pretty clear methodology and are transparent in how they do it with taking a lot of different polls and averaging out the results, and also excluding some polls that are biases or would have the perception of bias (ie ones funded by parties), so give a reasonable snapshot and tend to pan out fairly well with actual election results.

Not that the data on these yahoo polls aren't also indicative, just that would take random polls from yahoo etc with a massive grain of salt. THere is really nothing stoping a bored, asshole teenager from skewing the results for fun, and how you get things like 'Boaty McBoatyface' come out on top of open internet polls, or candidates on state ballots for POTUS under the name 'Deez Nutz'.

 

[Blackadder1916]

One more tidbit from the people who make a living working the odds.

Bettors strongly back Conservative win, despite a Liberal polling lead

Seventy per cent of the bets placed on the winner of the federal election are on the Conservative party

ca.news.yahoo.com

And an explanation of how "odds" works on FanDuel (i.e., the people who have a business working the odds) The "favourite" (the one expected to win) gets the "-"; the underdog (the expected loser) gets the "+".



As at time of posting the LPC sits at -670 and the CPC +290 for forming the next government. Incidentally, "any other party" is at +7500.



It's called a longshot.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

I'm in the same boat. Watching people obsess talk non-stop about Poilievre makes me think in hindsight how annoying it must be when people like you and I obsessed over Trudeau. Sure Poilievre is polarizing. I'm disbelieving sitting watching Canadians shrug and walk past the Liberal party behavior for the last 10 years. I've used the analogy before about swapping out a toxic unit CO is useless if the rest of the CoC are still toxic leaders. The Liberal party of the last 10 years hasn't changed. When you add up the Liberal party scandals and flagrantly spent or missing tax dollars holy shit. Carney has already signaled he doesn't care about that stuff. From bringing back Mendicino and Fraser, to supporting Chiang.

If Carney wins and 4 years later shits just as bad what are we going to hear?
-Oh, we just need another 4 years, THEN he'll have it all fix.
-Canadians just didn't invest enough into his plan.
-Things would have been worse with Poilievre anyways.

It's wild. Come year 14 of the Liberal party failing Canadians, with even higher crime rates, food insecurity, lack of housing, and bigger deficits, the last people Canadian voters will blame is themselves.

Holy shit is right. Senator Plett laid their bullshit out for the record. It took him 15 minutes and that was only up to 2021. Add in all the malfeasance since then and it's absolutely incredible how Canadians continued to ignore the damage the liberals made to our country, it's parliament and it's rule of law. And now some want to give these same people, with a new leader prone to constant and damaging lying, misinformation and disinformation, another mandate to continue their criminal behavior.

 

[Navy_Pete]

Wanna go in on a compound/homestead?

Sidebar, but always liked the Roman villa layouts where you have common areas in the middle (usually including an open air square for meals) and then private areas off of that for the rooms.

I've seen a few new houses being advertised with the layout option that included things like in law suites etc, and easier to build that in at the design stage for sure, and still have the actual house layout usable.

Seems like illegal boarding houses and other dodgy rentals are popping up anyway, with people trying to rent things like pantry cupboards and balconies out, so a nightmare for fire inspectors, so the market is definitely there, but was a lot more common in houses built before WW2 in cities to be split off into rentals. They were definitely much better laid out as well, so you don't get the weird nooks and useless cranies you get in some of the big open space concept houses now.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

And an explanation of how "odds" works on FanDuel (i.e., the people who have a business working the odds) The "favourite" (the one expected to win) gets the "-"; the underdog (the expected loser) gets the "+".

View attachment 92913

As at time of posting the LPC sits at -670 and the CPC +290 for forming the next government. Incidentally, "any other party" is at +7500.

View attachment 92914

It's called a longshot.

Not being a gambler, I appreciate the insight. 3 to 1, maybe I'll throw some cash on Poliviere.

 

[Lumber]

Holy shit is right. Senator Plett laid their bullshit out for the record. It took him 15 minutes and that was only up to 2021. Add in all the malfeasance since then and it's absolutely incredible how Canadians continued to ignore the damage the liberals made to our country, it's parliament and it's rule of law. And now some want to give these same people, with a new leader prone to constant and damaging lying, misinformation and disinformation, another mandate to continue their criminal behavior.

Side bar:

Ok, @fishbone, this is really important, and I mean "transcendentally" important.

This feeling of incredulity you are experiencing... this absolute astonishment you feel at Liberal supporters?

Realize that this is exactly how all democrats and most Canadians feel about anyone who supported, voted for, or worse still supports, Trump.

So while you were helping the Trump campaign, if you ever wondered why so many people could not see whatever is you saw, this feeling you have is the exact reason why.

Hope this helps your perspective on some of us wrt Trump.

End bar.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Wanna go in on a compound/homestead?

Unincorporated land in northern Ontario. Low taxes and no permits, inspections or bylaw officers of any kind required to build whatever you want.

 

[Lumber]

Sidebar, but always liked the Roman villa layouts where you have common areas in the middle (usually including an open air square for meals) and then private areas off of that for the rooms.

I've seen a few new houses being advertised with the layout option that included things like in law suites etc, and easier to build that in at the design stage for sure, and still have the actual house layout usable.

Seems like illegal boarding houses and other dodgy rentals are popping up anyway, with people trying to rent things like pantry cupboards and balconies out, so a nightmare for fire inspectors, so the market is definitely there, but was a lot more common in houses built before WW2 in cities to be split off into rentals. They were definitely much better laid out as well, so you don't get the weird nooks and useless cranies you get in some of the big open space concept houses now.

This is my dream setup. A series of either connect or very close homes for me and both my in-laws (and maybe our siblings), with a common area that has a kitchen and large living room that we can all meet up and hang out in, but with our own personal residences so we can have privacy (we are Millennials after all...people?...eww...). Put a vineyard on the back and it'd be heaven!

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Not really, the boomers and early gen X were able to afford the nuclear family on a single income with a job they got out of highchool.

GenX and early millenials were generally able to do the same with college/uni jobs at first, then shifted to needing dual incomes.

Now even people with a lot of training/schooling entering the market place are struggling to pay rent, and couples are breaking up but staying as roomates because they can't actually afford to live on their own. Varies of course, but when subordinates are paying more for rent in a 1 bedroom than I'm paying for my 10 year old mortgage (on a house I would struggle to pay the mortgage on if I bought it today) there is a pretty big downward shift in QoL and general frustration because the ability to hit that standard of living shifted from being achievable with some work to being aspirational.

Our parents entry level jobs paid well enough they were able to afford to be independent; now they aren't even up to the poverty line, so I think multigenerational family homes may become more and more common as the CoL continues to massively outpace incomes.

Agreed. Here's the BUT.

What went wrong and who is responsible?

 

[Navy_Pete]

Unincorporated land in northern Ontario. Low taxes and no permits, inspections or bylaw officers of any kind required to build whatever you want.

I've got to be honest, after spending a lot of time learning why rules are there in the codes, 'building whatever you want' is only a good idea if you understand why things are in the code and meet/exceed it. Lot of people think they know a lot more than they know, or are a lot more competent than they are, so having things like safety codes and inspectors making sure buildings meet safety codes isn't inherently a bad thing.

It's also the minimum standard, and hard to catch all situations, but when you consider that the fire portions assume a 10-15 minute response time, which you won't get outside cities (and even in them a lot of times) lots of good reasons to follow the building code provisions intended to make sure you can safely get out, as well as all the other stuff intended to reduce the risk of electrical fires, CO poisoning, floods and other things that will ruin your day.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Side bar:

Ok, @fishbone, this is really important, and I mean "transcendentally" important.

This feeling of incredulity you are experiencing... this absolute astonishment you feel at Liberal supporters?

Realize that this is exactly how all democrats and most Canadians feel about anyone who supported, voted for, or worse still supports, Trump.

So while you were helping the Trump campaign, if you ever wondered why so many people could not see whatever is you saw, this feeling you have is the exact reason why.

Hope this helps your perspective on some of us wrt Trump.

End bar.

Once and for all, in case you missed it, where I previously moved my bias. I no longer follow trump. I no longer agree with much of what he does. I am not a fan. I no longer support him. And if you were incredulous of my previous stance, that's fine. I've at least opened my eyes. But it's not transcendentally important.

However, it doesn’t excuse the absolute shit show of our current 10 year government and their supporters. I'll remain incredulous and damning of them. Fin.

 

[Remius]

Agreed. Here's the BUT.

What went wrong and who is responsible?

I already listed a bunch of things in previous threads.

Short list:

Over credentialization of professions and trades and jobs. Moving away from OJT.

Shift from long term planning to short term election cycle thinking

Investment in real estate and not business


All developed and implemented by the boomer generation running the show. Not saying it was done maliciously but here we are with the problems of those policies hitting society now.

 

[Navy_Pete]

Agreed. Here's the BUT.

What went wrong and who is responsible?

I don't think anything went wrong necessarily or any one person is responsible, but the world population did go from about 2.5 B in 1950 to over 7B now, so a lot more people competing over the same food, houses, jobs etc across the globe, as well as significant improvement of QoL in a lot of previously 3rd world countries for at least a significant portion of their populations.

Capitalism and globalisation relies on constant growth, which is unsustainable and I think we're reaching a point where you see in animal populations where they get explosive growth in good times (ie lots of prey for predators) but eventually you get a chain reaction hard crash (ie too much deer or whatever competing for the same food, so they die off, and then there is way too little prey so the predator populations crash as well). Short of some kind of global come to Jesus moment where everyone works on finding some kind of equilibrium probably won't happen until the wheels fall completely off. Even Star Trek had their modern dark age before they figured out a utopian gloabl society, but with the space race being pushed by selfish billionaires with penis shaped rockets for self enrichment and aggrandishment, that sort of breakthrough seems unlikely.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

I've got to be honest, after spending a lot of time learning why rules are there in the codes, 'building whatever you want' is only a good idea if you understand why things are in the code and meet/exceed it. Lot of people think they know a lot more than they know, or are a lot more competent than they are, so having things like safety codes and inspectors making sure buildings meet safety codes isn't inherently a bad thing.

It's also the minimum standard, and hard to catch all situations, but when you consider that the fire portions assume a 10-15 minute response time, which you won't get outside cities (and even in them a lot of times) lots of good reasons to follow the building code provisions intended to make sure you can safely get out, as well as all the other stuff intended to reduce the risk of electrical fires, CO poisoning, floods and other things that will ruin your day.

I understand your point, but skills of building didn’t enter into it. I only expressed what is available. How you go about it is up to you. If it’s any consolation, I agree with you.

 

[IKnowNothing]

Agreed. Here's the BUT.

What went wrong and who is responsible?

Big Three for me (specific to housing)

Financialization of the housing market
Poor controls against the entrance of foreign money taking advantage of and exacerbating the above
70 years of exclusionary zoning artificially lowering the amount of housing stock in the areas where people want to live

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Big Three for me (specific to housing)

Financialization of the housing market
Poor controls against the entrance of foreign money taking advantage of and exacerbating the above
70 years of exclusionary zoning artificially lowering the amount of housing stock in the areas where people want to live

But who is responsible. Just saying it was the boomers fault, as some say, doesn’t cut the mustard.

 

[mariomike]

70 years of exclusionary zoning artificially lowering the amount of housing stock in the areas where people want to live

Our town calls it, "The Yellow Belt".

Ie: Detached housing only.

We don't even have a sidewalk.

 

[Remius]

But who is responsible. Just saying it was the boomers fault, as some say, doesn’t cut the mustard.

There is no one person. Just a series of successive policy makers reinforcing those ideas. And a population that went with it.

And it isn’t just Canada either.

 

[HavokFour]

Everyone knows my opinion of polls. However, we've been welded to the results published by the aggregate 338Canada.

While bumbling around the webz this morn, I came across some polls on Yahoo News. They are much more pointed in their questions. What is interesting though, is that they are voluntary, open to anyone and not defined by an audience chosen by a polling firm.

What is the most interesting though is that the responding audience numbers between 50,000 to almost 100,000 respondents. Much larger, more diverse and less partisan than the audience(s) polled by the professionals.

I'm posting this out of interest. I am not defending anything. Read them yourself and draw your own conclusions. Perhaps things aren't as clear, cut and dried as the MSM and professional pollers suggest.

Vote in our Canada federal election 2025 polls: Which leader won the debates? Who do you want to be the next PM?

Yahoo News Canada curated a list of polls on issues ranging from Trump's annexation threat to the cost of living crisis so you can make your voice count as the federal leaders fight out it in a critical debate week going into the election day on April 28

ca.news.yahoo.com

One more tidbit from the people who make a living working the odds.

Bettors strongly back Conservative win, despite a Liberal polling lead

Seventy per cent of the bets placed on the winner of the federal election are on the Conservative party

ca.news.yahoo.com

Beware news site polls, often the only criteria needed is an internet connection. Case in point, I used a VPN to hop around Europe and cast multiple votes.

 

[KevinB]

Our town calls it, "The Yellow Belt".

Ie: Detached housing only.

We don't even have a sidewalk.

View attachment 92916

Who wants a sidewalk? Other people might use it and come near me…

Frankly I don’t know anyone who would want to live in a non detached house.