2025 Federal Election - 28 Apr 25

[Fishbone Jones]

Beware news site polls, often the only criteria needed is an internet connection. Case in point, I used a VPN to hop around Europe and cast multiple votes.

Is that worse than a pollster targeting a specific demographic , say a stong liberal riding, to get their results?

 

[mariomike]

Who wants a sidewalk? Other people might use it and come near me…

Frankly I don’t know anyone who would want to live in a non detached house.

Right...

Both of the above sentences are among the reasons why we pay membership dues to our local ratepayers association.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Is that worse than a pollster targeting a specific demographic , say a stong liberal riding, to get their results?

And your evidence of this is? Big claims need big proof.

... I came across some polls on Yahoo News. They are much more pointed in their questions. What is interesting though, is that they are voluntary, open to anyone and not defined by an audience chosen by a polling firm.

What is the most interesting though is that the responding audience numbers between 50,000 to almost 100,000 respondents. Much larger, more diverse and less partisan than the audience(s) polled by the professionals.

I'm posting this out of interest. I am not defending anything. Read them yourself and draw your own conclusions. Perhaps things aren't as clear, cut and dried as the MSM and professional pollers suggest.

Vote in our Canada federal election 2025 polls: Which leader won the debates? Who do you want to be the next PM?

Yahoo News Canada curated a list of polls on issues ranging from Trump's annexation threat to the cost of living crisis so you can make your voice count as the federal leaders fight out it in a critical debate week going into the election day on April 28

ca.news.yahoo.com

Never seen his before - thanks for sharing it. It'll be interesting to see how close this polling, which doesn't look like it screens for whether someone's old enough to vote, whether they live in Canada or even if they've voted before, predicts the outcome Monday. Also, I'm intrigued by this tidbit, too.

Ok, so for the first link, the last question of that poll tells the whole story. The last question is: "Which political party's values do you identify with the most?", and the result is 75% CPC vs 18% LPC, which means that 75% of the people who made it to that Yahoo web page (somehow, because who TF uses Yahoo news?) were already CPC "voters". It means the results of the other questions tell you diddly squat about the potential results of the election.

... One more tidbit from the people who make a living working the odds.

Bettors strongly back Conservative win, despite a Liberal polling lead

Seventy per cent of the bets placed on the winner of the federal election are on the Conservative party

ca.news.yahoo.com

We'll have to agree to disagree that an online gaming/gambling site where anyone can make a bet would constitute "people who make a living working the odds." And if you worry about systems being gamed, you think online gambling sites are set up to pay out on long odds & spend money, or to attract long-odd bets knowing they'll make money that way? How people bet may not be how people vote?

I'm in the same boat. Watching people obsess talk non-stop about Poilievre makes me think in hindsight how annoying it must be when people like you and I obsessed over Trudeau. Sure Poilievre is polarizing.

Ever since he took over as the coach of Team Blue, he's had not-great ratings on personal likeability, but right out of the gate, Brand Blue kept doing well in the polls against Team Red Trudeau. Once Trudeau left, PP's overall likeability stayed lowish, and (IMHO) since the brand relied so much on PP himself, the party's #'s dropped. Maybe if there'd been more push on The Team instead of The Boss? Who knows?

I agree with commentators that if Trudeau was still in play (and Team Blue might have been able to poke to taunt him enough to keep at 'er - notwithstanding PMJT's own goals on his own), Team Red candidates and canvassers would be facing blasts of shit from every door.

If Team Blue hadn't been as harsh on the NDP, and maybe manouvered them to drop their support in the fall or early winter, who knows?

Woulda, coulda, shoulda ...

 

[Brad Sallows]

I don't think anything went wrong necessarily or any one person is responsible, but the world population did go from about 2.5 B in 1950 to over 7B now, so a lot more people competing over the same food, houses, jobs etc across the globe, as well as significant improvement of QoL in a lot of previously 3rd world countries for at least a significant portion of their populations.

It's not "the same" stuff, unless you mean "the same kind of" rather than "the same amount of". We know that standards of living are improving, which suggests "the stuff" increases at a rate faster than "the people".

The more people who are elevated in their capacity to produce and innovate, the more rapid the resulting virtuous cycle of human improvement. As you wrote: "significant improvement of QoL" and "previously 3rd world".

Regardless, we already observe declining population growth. Irrespective of dispute about "why", forecasters are already estimating a peak population defined by choice rather than the moment before a Malthusian crash.

Capitalism and globalisation relies on constant growth, which is unsustainable

Julian Simon demonstrated convincingly why that is untrue, except in the sense of a universe of finite mass and duration or a fixation on a particular resource (eg. whale oil). Substitution and efficiency.

Even Star Trek had their modern dark age before they figured out a utopian gloabl society

Star Trek is fiction.

, but with the space race being pushed by selfish billionaires with penis shaped rockets for self enrichment and aggrandishment, that sort of breakthrough seems unlikely.

Starlink and decreasing costs for putting mass into and beyond orbit are real achievements.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Big Three for me (specific to housing)

Financialization of the housing market
Poor controls against the entrance of foreign money taking advantage of and exacerbating the above
70 years of exclusionary zoning artificially lowering the amount of housing stock in the areas where people want to live

4) Increasing numbers of people with increasing savings rates and fewer expenses (particularly numbers of children). The resulting accumulation of capital coupled with government fuckery that occasionally tanks markets pushes some people to invest in real estate. There supposedly is a global savings glut, which is partly why governments are able to spend in deficit and why there is demand for investment opportunities.

Zoning is how the desirability of areas people want to live is established in the first place. It's absurd to shape a neighbourhood and then whine that the people who chose to buy in ought to consent to its ruin (in their view) to suit other people who come along later. Create new neighbourhoods. Create new communities and cities. Increased dispersion and decreased density are long-term safety and survival benefits.

 

[Eaglelord17]

It wasn't meant as a personal attack. My point is that with any new technology, there are always detractors who claim they will never get on board. However, after a few years, you find that not only has everyone just moved along, but even those detractors have become supporters. Once EVs become more ubiquitous and battery ranges start consistently meeting the ranges of gasoline engines (many already do), it won't be any more difficult or expensive to maintain the same "freedom" of movement as when we were all driving manual transmission gas guzzlers without our seatbelts on.

Considering cradle to grave studies on Electric cars prove they are just as bad as a gasoline car it really is just smoke and mirrors from the government.

There is a very good chance the future isn’t electric. It is very costly for rare earth metals and again it isn’t any better considering how efficient modern gasoline vehicles are. Hydrogen would be where I place my bet long term.

The only thing which would cause a serious reduction in emissions is improving public transport. Things like trains and street cars, not personal vehicles. Mandating no selling of certain vehicles is stupid, how about instead improving systems so they aren’t so necessary. I would much rather travel long distances by train. Can sleep on the ride, and I can drink in the bar if I wished.

Unincorporated land in northern Ontario. Low taxes and no permits, inspections or bylaw officers of any kind required to build whatever you want.

Not anymore. You still need permits to build, you just send them to the province (still has to meet building code minimums, no restriction on what you build where). 2021 they changed the law so they could appoint inspectors to unincorporated land where before it was the law requiring permits but no way of enforcing them.

 

[IKnowNothing]

Zoning is how the desirability of areas people want to live is established in the first place. It's absurd to shape a neighbourhood and then whine that the people who chose to buy in ought to consent to its ruin (in their view) to suit other people who come along later.

Relax the zoning, let the market properly allocate the resource.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

It's not "the same" stuff, unless you mean "the same kind of" rather than "the same amount of". We know that standards of living are improving, which suggests "the stuff" increases at a rate faster than "the people".

The more people who are elevated in their capacity to produce and innovate, the more rapid the resulting virtuous cycle of human improvement. As you wrote: "significant improvement of QoL" and "previously 3rd world".

Regardless, we already observe declining population growth. Irrespective of dispute about "why", forecasters are already estimating a peak population defined by choice rather than the moment before a Malthusian crash.

Julian Simon demonstrated convincingly why that is untrue, except in the sense of a universe of finite mass and duration or a fixation on a particular resource (eg. whale oil). Substitution and efficiency.

Star Trek is fiction.

Starlink and decreasing costs for putting mass into and beyond orbit are real achievements.

As is saving stranded astronauts that NASA couldn't.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

And your evidence of this is? Big claims need big proof.

Hypotheticals, like wondering who filled out the polls, if they voted, pooh pooing the results because the participants can't be quantified.

Never seen his before - thanks for sharing it. It'll be interesting to see how close this polling, which doesn't look like it screens for whether someone's old enough to vote, whether they live in Canada or even if they've voted before, predicts the outcome Monday. Also, I'm intrigued by this tidbit, too.

Yup, interesting indeed.

We'll have to agree to disagree that an online gaming/gambling site where anyone can make a bet would constitute "people who make a living working the odds." And if you worry about systems being gamed, you think online gambling sites are set up to pay out on long odds & spend money, or to attract long-odd bets knowing they'll make money that way? How people bet may not be how people vote?

I already spoke to my ignorance of gambling up thread and thanked the poster for his clarification.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Considering cradle to grave studies on Electric cars prove they are just as bad as a gasoline car it really is just smoke and mirrors from the government.

There is a very good chance the future isn’t electric. It is very costly for rare earth metals and again it isn’t any better considering how efficient modern gasoline vehicles are. Hydrogen would be where I place my bet long term.

The only thing which would cause a serious reduction in emissions is improving public transport. Things like trains and street cars, not personal vehicles. Mandating no selling of certain vehicles is stupid, how about instead improving systems so they aren’t so necessary. I would much rather travel long distances by train. Can sleep on the ride, and I can drink in the bar if I wished.

Not anymore. You still need permits to build, you just send them to the province (still has to meet building code minimums, no restriction on what you build where). 2021 they changed the law so they could appoint inspectors to unincorporated land where before it was the law requiring permits but no way of enforcing them.

Tanks. I wasn't aware it had changed. But it makes sense and is a better way of doing it.

 

[mariomike]

Zoning is how the desirability of areas people want to live is established in the first place. It's absurd to shape a neighbourhood and then whine that the people who chose to buy in ought to consent to its ruin (in their view) to suit other people who come along later.

Relax the zoning, let the market properly allocate the resource.

Our ratepayers association argues the zoning preserves the character of an established neighborhood.

In our town, the Yellow Belt covers about 75% of the land area. Another 20% are employment areas and open spaces where no residential development is permitted.

 

[JLB50]

Tanks. I wasn't aware it had changed. But it makes sense and is a better way of doing it.

I disagree with you on many things but I’m totally with you this time around. I don’t think EVs are necessarily the best way to go in the long term. I would like to see more development of hydrogen vehicles. And trains? I’m with you on that. Both regionally and nationally we need more. My wife and I take the train whenever we can.

 

[ModlrMike]

Banning the purchase of ICE vehicles in 10 year's time shows a distinct lack of appreciation for the climactic conditions and distances faced by the rural population.

 

[JLB50]

Sorry, FB, that should have been addressed more
to Eaglelord

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Sorry, FB, that should have been addressed more
to Eaglelord

That's OK, I'll take it wherever I can get it1

 

[MilEME09]

Right wing groups spamming social media ahead of the vote, can easily confirm my feeds are filled with posts bashing the liberals more than anything else. Mostly from clearly bot accounts

Canadians bombarded with rightwing content on Musk’s X ahead of election

FT analysis finds network of social media accounts attacking Liberal leader Mark Carney

t.co

 

[IKnowNothing]

Banning the purchase of ICE vehicles in 10 year's time shows a distinct lack of appreciation for the climactic conditions and distances faced by the rural population.

Living rurally- agreed. But the plan/ act expressly allows for plug in hybrids.

 

[brihard]

Right wing groups spamming social media ahead of the vote, can easily confirm my feeds are filled with posts bashing the liberals more than anything else. Mostly from clearly bot accounts

Canadians bombarded with rightwing content on Musk’s X ahead of election

FT analysis finds network of social media accounts attacking Liberal leader Mark Carney

t.co

Yeah, the volume’s definitely been turned up for sure. It’ll fade after the election.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Right wing groups spamming social media ahead of the vote, can easily confirm my feeds are filled with posts bashing the liberals more than anything else. Mostly from clearly bot accounts

Canadians bombarded with rightwing content on Musk’s X ahead of election

FT analysis finds network of social media accounts attacking Liberal leader Mark Carney

t.co

It's not unique to you or your feeds. They are all in the sights of their opposition. I lost count of the amount of liberal trolls I've banned/ blocked from my feeds.

"Left wing groups spamming social media ahead of the vote, can easily confirm my feeds are filled with posts bashing the Conservatives more than anything else. Mostly from clearly bot accounts."

If you know they are bots, why concern yourself? If it really bothers you there's tons of info out there that tell you how to deal with bots.

Being on the left, at least you don't need to worry about the Chinese complaining about your candidate.

 

[IKnowNothing]

Our ratepayers association argues the zoning preserves the character of an established neighborhood.

They are nimby bullshit artists. Some neighbourhoods the juice just isnt worth the squeeze- due to infrastructure, topography etc.

But show me the person that tells you that taking 10% of land area of a given post war or later suburban neighbouhood and increasing the housing density by 2 or 3 times while staying within (or close) the same building envelope guidance (number of stories etc) and trying to blend in architecturally will certainly and irredeemably change the "character" of the entire neighbourhood, and I'll show you someone peddling hyperbole for gain