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2025 Federal Election - 28 Apr 25

Canada 338 aggregate of all kindsa polls ....
... shows voter intent essentially neck-and-neck when you consider the range of both Blue & Red stats ...
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... and the NDP projected as low as one mating pair.
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Interesting seeing the historic record of the odds of which party was expected to get the most seats and majority-minority outcomes.
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It really blows my mind that Quebec separatists just don't understand how screwed they would be if they separated from Canada. The First Nations territories have already stated that if Quebec separated from Canada then they could separate from Quebec. That would mean that Quebec would have to import the electricity it uses to power its heavy industry and lose much of the land where it extracts natural resources.

Also, rather than being a province with 7 million francophones in a bilingual country of 40 million they would be an island of 7 million francophones surrounded by 370 million non-francophones. Nobody outside Quebec will want to accommodate their language and all their trade will have to be in English out of necessity.

Separation from Canada would greatly accelerate the destruction of Quebecois culture and language. I think the Bloc and PQ realize that but leverage the fear of separation in the rest of Canada to get accommodations that the rest of the Provinces would have a much more difficult time getting.

This is a common opinion that I think seriously underestimates the sophistication of Quebecers, separatists and the Bloc. I’ll concede that I’m not an expert but as a BC boy who’s on his third posting to Valcartier, I think their understanding and nuance on politics is better than in the rest of Canada. Also, don’t kid yourself, everyone in Quebec knows there would be challenges/disadvantages associated with a separation, so your mind shouldn’t be so blown.
 
This is a common opinion that I think seriously underestimates the sophistication of Quebecers, separatists and the Bloc. I’ll concede that I’m not an expert but as a BC boy who’s on his third posting to Valcartier, I think their understanding and nuance on politics is better than in the rest of Canada. Also, don’t kid yourself, everyone in Quebec knows there would be challenges/disadvantages associated with a separation, so your mind shouldn’t be so blown.
"challenges/disadvantages"
Clive Owen Television GIF by AMC Networks
 
If the Liberals win, I have zero confidence that any resource based economic measures get passed, despite what Carney told the west.
Agreed.

Not trying to sound like a conspiracy theorist, but my take on it is that he simply said what he needed to say to advance in the election...

During any election campaign, every politician will talk about "rebooting the economy!" and "creating lots of new jobs!"

They'll talk about removing trade barriers, expanding to new markets, tax cuts for this & that, more funding for this & that, etc

So on that note, I believe Carney has simply said what every voter wants to hear, regardless of who they are voting for.


The bigger picture would suggest Carney is no friend of Canadian industry, despite us having some of the best technology & highest environmental standards in the world.

...

He criticizes Pierre Poilievre's "slogans" such as Axe The Tax, but his NetZero is basically the exact same thing as a slogan.

Except Pierre's desire to axe the carbon tax is an easily achievable matter of changing legislation.

Whereas Carney's net zero goals require the creation of an entire mini-economy to accommodate imaginary carbon credits & is mostly designed to suck money from the industrial sector to the financial sector under the guise of a climate emergency.

(Que Brookfield, which looks to benefit greatly from a lot of Carney's ideas...)

And just like the carbon tax doesn't actually go towards reducing the very thing they are taxing us on (or any environmental projects at all really) - these imaginary carbon credits aren't going to do anything to help the environment either.

Even Environment Canada has said it's 9000 employees won't be enough to just administer the new regulatory framework, which is an extremely complex & confusing ball of crap I personally suspect was designed to camouflage the non-consensual transfer of wealth his ideas will result in

...

The Canadian O&G industry is already one of the cleanest in the world. Putting arbitrary caps on emissions (which IS a cap on production, even if he says it isn't) and taxing the hell out of it is going to accomplish absolutely nothing of benefit...

It WILL kill the Canadian economy in multiple ways and at multiple levels though. And as an 'experienced economist' he's well aware of this...

(Considering most provinces currently rely heavily on equalization payments from the west, they won't be able to pay for much when those payments stop coming because he killed off one of the few remaining industries we have left.)
 
Not a good look.

Liberal candidate apologizes for comments 'out of context' allegedly about abandoning elderly, preventing motherhood


Liberal candidate Nell Thomas has apologized for comments she has reportedly made on social media that have raised questions about her views about the keeping elderly people alive and whether women should be having children.


Thomas, a family physician running for office in the riding of Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes,

One screengrab circulating on social media shows Thomas, commenting on the “elderly demographic” on May 11, 2024, reportedly wrote that Canada must “stop keeping ancients alive so long.”
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Another screengrab of a post on X, dated April 12, 2023, shows Thomas reportedly criticizing women bearing children.
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“Imagine my thoughts when assessing a pregnant patient. I telepathically advise the fetus to sue the owner of the uterus while exiting it to this world. Of necessity, a mother must be a climate change denier,” reads the post.

It's almost like having a PhD and being considered an expert in a field doesn't automatically translate to benevolence and good intentions.
 
Angus Reid Institute

April 26, 2025

Federal vote intention by age and gender

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Wow, number of things I find fascinating in those numbers.
1) BQ has virtually no support from women 18-34 in Quebec.
2) NDP’s biggest supporters are those same 18-34 women, ditto to the Liberals.
3) Ditto for the Green Party
4) Women 55+ don’t give a hoot about the NDP
6) Men 35+ are solidly Conservative (surpirise!)
 
So we remain reliant on the US for things like Line 5?
There is no quick fix so I guess for now, yes. I think they recently received state and/or federal approval to tunnel under the Mackinac Strait. In the long term, I would like to explore increasing the capacity of the Trans-Canada Pipeline. I don't know how many lines there are (3?) but I recall come talk about converting one of the from gas to oil, with much local opposition along the route.

we been having this oh-so-Canadian debate for almost 70 years.

 
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