2025 Federal Election - 28 Apr 25

[Maxman1]

While technically the Westminster system allows for the party currently in power to have an opportunity to demonstrate confidence following an election even if they fail to achieve an independent plurality, in practice Canadian parties who lose an election to an incoming minority have always given them the opportunity to govern first. Doesn’t mean they couldn’t torpedo them at the first throne speech or budget, and then take a stab at it.

Except in 1925, when the Conservatives won 116 seats and the Liberals 101, but the Liberals formed a coalition with a third party to stay in power.

 

[brihard]

Except in 1925, when the Conservatives won 116 seats and the Liberals 101, but the Liberals formed a coalition with a third party to stay in power.

Thanks! I didn’t know about that one.

 

[daftandbarmy]

I’m guessing LPC minority being propped up by the BQ.

For wads of $$$

 

[Maxman1]

Thanks! I didn’t know about that one.

The King-Byng Affair was a result of that, when Governor General Byng refused a request for an election and appointed the Conservatives as the government.

And King immediately forced a no confidence motion after three days.

 

[brihard]

The King-Byng Affair was a result of that, when Governor General Byng refused a request for an election and appointed the Conservatives as the government.

And King immediately forced a no confidence motion after three days.

Right! Thanks, I’d forgotten the specifics.

 

[MilEME09]

All the final polls

https://twitter.com/x/status/1916685488246706305

I'm betting majority liberal gov

 

[brihard]

All the final polls

https://twitter.com/x/status/1916685488246706305

I'm betting majority liberal gov

Even just seeing LPC and CPC getting a combined 80% would be wild.

It goes how it goes. My biggest hope is for very high overall turnout.

 

[Good2Golf]

My biggest hope is for very high overall turnout.

Perhaps an anomaly, but stats say that 40% of Carleton riding’s entire eligible voter list voted in the 18-21 April advance polls, so I think voter turnout should be good in many/most ridings.

 

[MilEME09]

Perhaps an anomaly, but stats say that 40% of Carleton riding’s entire eligible voter list voted in the 18-21 April advance polls, so I think voter turnout should be good in many/most ridings.

7 million advanced votes, plus probably a high turn out tomorrow, plus mail in and absentee ballots? I'd agree

 

[RangerRay]

This week’s bullshit bulletin:

Carney neglected to tell us that Trump still does not respect our sovereignty, and the Tories big plan for all these years turned out to have been written on the back of a napkin.

Bullshit Bulletin, Week 5: Okay, okay, here's what Trump REALLY told us on the phone

Carney's self-serving bullshit, Poilievre's bullshit platform, Singh's bullshit excuse. And more!

www.readtheline.ca

Gerson: the Liberals need to go away and the Conservatives need to grow up.

Jen Gerson: Whither the change agent?

I wish the Liberals would go away and the Conservatives would grow up. I'm resigned to the fact that I'll get neither.

www.readtheline.ca

 

[Eaglelord17]

I should have been more specific -- there's likely about as many people doing stupid stuff/stunts as there were in past

I think there is less people doing stupid stuff/stunts than the past. Less people go outside and due to the knowledge everything is being watched people tend to be better behaved.

It is just the few doing it is much more advertised.

 

[HavokFour]

Another interview with Ford where he doesn't really hold back much. Definitely a good chance now he might be coming for PP's job, or at the very least ready to throw support behind any Progressive Conservative that tries. He also seems to be laying a chunk of the blame on... Jenni Byrne.

‘It’s the Tariffs, Stupid’: Ontario Premier Doug Ford Gets Real About the Canada Elections
Alt: https://archive.ph/zwsdQ

 

[The Bread Guy]

... He also seems to be laying a chunk of the blame on... Jenni Byrne.

‘It’s the Tariffs, Stupid’: Ontario Premier Doug Ford Gets Real About the Canada Elections
Alt: https://archive.ph/zwsdQ

To be scrupulously fair to her, she's manically rabid politically, no doubt, but 1) I think she's there because PP likes having that kind of passion advising him, and 2) if PP didn't want to go as hard as she advised (assuming she did advise going full throttle all the time), he could have done things differently.

Like blaming Butts for PMJT, it was up to PMJT to be the adult as needed - yeah, I know, dare to dream ....

 

[The Bread Guy]

All the final polls

https://twitter.com/x/status/1916685488246706305

I'm betting majority liberal gov

Aaaaand the English side is back from its hack purgatory yesterday ....

338Canada Canada | Poll Analysis & Electoral Projections

338canada.com

 

[daftandbarmy]

Aaaaand the English side is back from its hack purgatory yesterday ....

338Canada Canada | Poll Analysis & Electoral Projections

338canada.com

This is going to be fun to watch!

 

[The Bread Guy]

For the record, here's CBC's tracker's latest ...

Poll Tracker

If an election were held today, who would win? The CBC News Poll Tracker is your guide to following the polls. Get the latest numbers and analysis on where the political parties stand from Éric Grenier.

newsinteractives.cbc.ca

... vs 338Canada's takes:

338Canada Canada | Poll Analysis & Electoral Projections

338canada.com

Both of these aggregators take a mess of polls and average them up.

 

[brihard]

This should be a close one. While it seems very likely to be a Liberal victory at least in terms of a plurality (CPC conventionally need to beat LPC by several percent outright, and I don’t see that unless the entire polling industry misses catastrophically), there’s a very real chance that the results sufficient to call a minority or majority aren’t clear tonight until Alberta and BC have substantial counts in.

Things I’m watching for:

• Bloc outperforms polls
• LPC underperforms in QC/ON
• Surprise LPC seats in AB/MB/SK
• Just for shits and giggles (particularly giggles), Greens fail to win a seat (they should keep their seat in Ontario)

Quebec through Alberta polls close at 2130 Eastern, BC polls close at 2200 Eastern.

 

[The Bread Guy]

He. Just. COULDN'T. Help. Himself ....

 

[Quirky]

There is a 51st state/Trump option on the ballot? Damn must've missed it.

 

[The Bread Guy]

There is a 51st state/Trump option on the ballot? Damn must've missed it.

And yet some folks out there - mostly those who don't like Team Red and in broad strokes don't object too much to POTUS47 - claim anytime this comes up, it's a bump to Team Red. Funny that ....