Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???

[The Bread Guy]

Aaaand this didn't take long ....

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[HavokFour]

Aaaand this didn't take long ....

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I think we need a facepalm reaction.

 

[RangerRay]

I don't think you can categorize the BQ with any sort of brush. I know some fairly rabid BQ people who are further to the right than myself - but they view the party as a Quebecois voice against a Canada that marginalizes them (I have to bite my tongue about that thought process - but it is their personal view points)

I heard Chantal Herbert admonish Althia Raj today for saying that same thing. Herbert said the right-of-centre CAQ got most of its support from BQ supporters.

Here here!

Has there been a break down in generational voting yet ? I keep hearing the youth votes CPC but is like to see the data!

I’m not sure if voting data is available, but most polling data showed young dudes going Conservative and you women breaking left. A real gender divide happening.

 

[Halifax Tar]

It will be interesting to watch this topic evolve.

Smith lowers bar for Alberta referendum with separatism sentiment emerging

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says she'll make it easier for citizens to initiate a referendum on the province's future in Canada.

nationalpost.com

 

[brihard]

It will be interesting to watch this topic evolve.

Smith lowers bar for Alberta referendum with separatism sentiment emerging

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says she'll make it easier for citizens to initiate a referendum on the province's future in Canada.

nationalpost.com

Interesting that she’s looking to slide union and corporate donations into provincial politics there. Not my province. If it was my province I’d take major issue with that. Keeping our politics low budget and relatively untainted by business money is a net good for democracy, I think.

 

[RangerRay]

I had a bit of a panic attack at some earlier numbers that looked more solid than I thought. The minority looks a bit more solid and the NDP contingent does not strike me as overly strong. Here’s hoping Carney doesn’t bother with a formal agreement with the NDP.

After mulling things over, I don’t think it’s fair to say that the Tories lost support since the current unpleasantness started; they seem to have remained stable while the Liberals are the NDP’s lunch. If the Liberals continue on this way, this presents an opportunity for the Tories to play for the middle. I still think that they should abandon the Popular Front mentality of “no enemies on our right” and get their comms team to grow up. If they don’t, I fear they may have hit their ceiling, which while higher than ever, is not high enough if they want to defeat a Liberal/NDP hybrid Frankenstein monster.

I still hold out hope for either a Liberal/Conservative Grand Coalition, or the Liberals getting half a dozen sober-minded Tories to defect.

 

[Booter]

Has anyone seen this? I’m not a bright man so I don’t know what to make of it.

View this content on Instagram

View this content on Instagram

 

[PPCLI Guy]

I heard Chantal Herbert admonish Althia Raj today for saying that same thing. Herbert said the right-of-centre CAQ got most of its support from BQ supporters.

Chantal is amazing. I have been following her for her entire career starting in Mtl. Her insights never fail to inform, and often convince. I met her before COVID after a lecture at the Smith Business School in Queens, and she is even more forthright and no nonsense in person as she appears on the screen.

 

[HavokFour]

Has anyone seen this? I’m not a bright man so I don’t know what to make of it.

View this content on Instagram

View this content on Instagram

Full on tinfoil, we're entering Canada's version of what happened just to our south after their 2020 election. Also see:

Aaaand this didn't take long ....

Sign the Petition

Call to Investigate Irregularities in 2025 Canadian Federal Election

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[Remius]

Full on tinfoil, we're entering Canada's version of what happened just to our south after their 2020 election. Also see:

We’re going to see a lot of this sort of thing.

What he fails to mention is the suburban chunk the riding had that was merged with Ottawa South. So they reshaped the boundaries. He lost a decent size suburban area and inherited more rural areas. Mostly considered an advantage.

 

[Booter]

Ahh. I figured there must be something else here. Seemed too clean.

 

[MilEME09]

Interesting that she’s looking to slide union and corporate donations into provincial politics there. Not my province. If it was my province I’d take major issue with that. Keeping our politics low budget and relatively untainted by business money is a net good for democracy, I think.

On the flip side she made it easier to recall ucp MLA's.....

 

[QV]

I had a bit of a panic attack at some earlier numbers that looked more solid than I thought. The minority looks a bit more solid and the NDP contingent does not strike me as overly strong. Here’s hoping Carney doesn’t bother with a formal agreement with the NDP.

After mulling things over, I don’t think it’s fair to say that the Tories lost support since the current unpleasantness started; they seem to have remained stable while the Liberals are the NDP’s lunch. If the Liberals continue on this way, this presents an opportunity for the Tories to play for the middle. I still think that they should abandon the Popular Front mentality of “no enemies on our right” and get their comms team to grow up. If they don’t, I fear they may have hit their ceiling, which while higher than ever, is not high enough if they want to defeat a Liberal/NDP hybrid Frankenstein monster.

I still hold out hope for either a Liberal/Conservative Grand Coalition, or the Liberals getting half a dozen sober-minded Tories to defect.

Carney is a climate zealot. I don’t think I’d use “sober” and defections to his party in the same sentence.

 

[Navy_Pete]

It will be interesting to watch this topic evolve.

Smith lowers bar for Alberta referendum with separatism sentiment emerging

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says she'll make it easier for citizens to initiate a referendum on the province's future in Canada.

nationalpost.com

One thing they always like to ignore at the provincial level is the FN treaty territory is federal with agreements that predate the founding of Canada and should take precedent over provincial lines. QC got super pissed off when people pointed out that really would be up to individual FN to decide if they wanted to stay, but basically turned QC into swiss cheese (and also took away a lot of natural resources).

Probably no different in Alberta. In any province, can you imagine the FN territories being told they have to separate Canada (and lose whatever treaty rights they have) because the province voted for it?

Also, national debt is shared, so take your share.

If someone where to lay out the reality of how it would work usually realize it's a pretty stupid idea pretty quick, they aren't just swanning off into the sunset leaving us holding their baggage, with whatever is on the military bases and other federal department assets and infra.

We’re going to see a lot of this sort of thing.

What he fails to mention is the suburban chunk the riding had that was merged with Ottawa South. So they reshaped the boundaries. He lost a decent size suburban area and inherited more rural areas. Mostly considered an advantage.

They reshaped most of the boundaries across Ottawa I think. For PP, he pissed off a lot of people in his own riding with the support for the convoy, seemed to have taken support in his own riding for granted, and Fanjoy ran a really great local campaign. Sure it happened across all parties, but there were a few stories going around about Fanjoy signs getting repeatedly ripped down, Pollievre signs getting put up on people's lawns that didn't ask for them, and a bunch of other ground level things that seemed to have tipped the balance against him.

With all the development on the go around the LRT expansion adding a ton of high density apartment and condos, probably will have to redo boundaries again next election to even out the population again, so just the way it goes. There aren't voter databases like in the US, so would be tough to gerrymander boundaries even if they could be arsed.

 

[Lumber]

Ignore the headline of the article.

What's interesting is the comments she made in the video. I can't find a transcript of the video and it's not actually quoted in the article, but what she says in the video in that article (you're welcome for transcribing it):

"I think that over 300 MPs got elected because they stood on a platform to get our resources developed, to work with provinces to establish economic corridors, and to get our products to market. I think the NDP got crushed, the Green Party got crushed, and the Bloc Quebecois lost ground, because they were opposed to that agenda. So I would hope that the current prime minister realizes that his mandate comes from moderate voters who actually want this province to be a genuine energy super power, and the country to be a genuine energy super power. And so, that's why I believe we saw the outcome that we got last night. It wasn't because they doubled down on extremist environmental policy that would crush our industry, it was the opposite. They depicted themselves as wanting to create a new approach, one that would be in sync with what all the provinces are asking for, and that's what I'll be asking the Prime Minister to do."

I think that's really interesting for two reasons:

1. She just lumped all of the Liberal MPs in with the Conservatives ones as being part of a "pro resource development platform", and those who voted for them as "moderates".
2. She seems to take Carney's claim to want to work with the provinces to develop resources as genuine, with no visible hint that she thinks it's just political BS.

 

[suffolkowner]

Ignore the headline of the article.

What's interesting is the comments she made in the video. I can't find a transcript of the video and it's not actually quoted in the article, but what she says in the video in that article (you're welcome for transcribing it):

"I think that over 300 MPs got elected because they stood on a platform to get our resources developed, to work with provinces to establish economic corridors, and to get our products to market. I think the NDP got crushed, the Green Party got crushed, and the Bloc Quebecois lost ground, because they were opposed to that agenda. So I would hope that the current prime minister realizes that his mandate comes from moderate voters who actually want this province to be a genuine energy super power, and the country to be a genuine energy super power. And so, that's why I believe we saw the outcome that we got last night. It wasn't because they doubled down on extremist environmental policy that would crush our industry, it was the opposite. They depicted themselves as wanting to create a new approach, one that would be in sync with what all the provinces are asking for, and that's what I'll be asking the Prime Minister to do."

I think that's really interesting for two reasons:

1. She just lumped all of the Liberal MPs in with the Conservatives ones as being part of a "pro resource development platform", and those who voted for them as "moderates".
2. She seems to take Carney's claim to want to work with the provinces to develop resources as genuine, with no visible hint that she thinks it's just political BS.

so what would it take? Another 2 pipelines or is that too Trudeau like? 4?

 

[Navy_Pete]

Ignore the headline of the article.

What's interesting is the comments she made in the video. I can't find a transcript of the video and it's not actually quoted in the article, but what she says in the video in that article (you're welcome for transcribing it):

"I think that over 300 MPs got elected because they stood on a platform to get our resources developed, to work with provinces to establish economic corridors, and to get our products to market. I think the NDP got crushed, the Green Party got crushed, and the Bloc Quebecois lost ground, because they were opposed to that agenda. So I would hope that the current prime minister realizes that his mandate comes from moderate voters who actually want this province to be a genuine energy super power, and the country to be a genuine energy super power. And so, that's why I believe we saw the outcome that we got last night. It wasn't because they doubled down on extremist environmental policy that would crush our industry, it was the opposite. They depicted themselves as wanting to create a new approach, one that would be in sync with what all the provinces are asking for, and that's what I'll be asking the Prime Minister to do."

I think that's really interesting for two reasons:

1. She just lumped all of the Liberal MPs in with the Conservatives ones as being part of a "pro resource development platform", and those who voted for them as "moderates".
2. She seems to take Carney's claim to want to work with the provinces to develop resources as genuine, with no visible hint that she thinks it's just political BS.

Yeah, and Carney's comments about an energy super power developing O&G don't really jive with past comments on carbon tax and greening the economy, but I think a much more pragmatic approach, and always an opportunity to invest in things like carbon capture (to offset emissions), as well as developing nuclear, wind and tidal energy more.

If he actually goes in that way it will be interesting to see if can actually get cooperation from the provinces, as well as if businesses will see a good business case for that kind of investment, or if this would be another massive government run program to build it then sell it/lease it as a loss.

Big infrastructure investment across the country helped during the great depression, and god knows most cities are running into big issues with aging sewer and water infra with massive butcher bills coming that could help at a municipal level, as well as all of the CAF infra across the country rotting out, so there definitely isn't a lack of large construction projects that need doing. Good opportunity as well to use them to push a large apprenticeship surge for all the trades that are starting to age out faster than people can join, as paid apprenticeships are scarce.

 

[dapaterson]

Great animation: Land vs votes.

https://bsky.app/profile/jensvb.bsky.social%2Fpost%2F3lnyi7l5bjc2k

 

[Brad Sallows]

I don't think you can categorize the BQ with any sort of brush. I know some fairly rabid BQ people who are further to the right than myself - but they view the party as a Quebecois voice against a Canada that marginalizes them (I have to bite my tongue about that thought process - but it is their personal view points)

There might be a few, but QC as a whole leans socialist. The only question in my mind is whether it is the leftmost province in Canada, or is outdone by Atlantic provinces.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Big infrastructure investment across the country helped during the great depression, and god knows most cities are running into big issues with aging sewer and water infra with massive butcher bills coming that could help at a municipal level, as well as all of the CAF infra across the country rotting out, so there definitely isn't a lack of large construction projects that need doing.

Things that were done in a different time were done because they could be funded. The costs aren't reasonable right now. I thought improving technology would make it easier to build big things faster. I underestimated the power of litigation and plain ordinary beak-wetting to eclipse innovation and stifle progress.