Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???

[Brad Sallows]

Also, national debt is shared, so take your share.

In principle I believe that is how it ought to be, but in reality how is that supposed to work? A truck shows up at the separating Parliament's door and shovels a bunch of debt certificates across the threshold and the driver says, "Here, these are yours now"? The creditors have an arrangement with Canada; they'll expect their money back from Canada, in Canadian dollars.

If a separating jurisdiction refused to accept any liability for GoC debts and decided not to borrow to fund its operations - to strictly balance its budgets - how could a "share" be forced on it?

 

[Blackadder1916]

Ignore the headline of the article.

What's interesting is the comments she made in the video. I can't find a transcript of the video and it's not actually quoted in the article, but what she says in the video in that article (you're welcome for transcribing it):

"I think that over 300 MPs got elected because they stood on a platform to get our resources developed, to work with provinces to establish economic corridors, and to get our products to market. I think the NDP got crushed, the Green Party got crushed, and the Bloc Quebecois lost ground, because they were opposed to that agenda. So I would hope that the current prime minister realizes that his mandate comes from moderate voters who actually want this province to be a genuine energy super power, and the country to be a genuine energy super power. And so, that's why I believe we saw the outcome that we got last night. It wasn't because they doubled down on extremist environmental policy that would crush our industry, it was the opposite. They depicted themselves as wanting to create a new approach, one that would be in sync with what all the provinces are asking for, and that's what I'll be asking the Prime Minister to do."

I think that's really interesting for two reasons:

1. She just lumped all of the Liberal MPs in with the Conservatives ones as being part of a "pro resource development platform", and those who voted for them as "moderates".
2. She seems to take Carney's claim to want to work with the provinces to develop resources as genuine, with no visible hint that she thinks it's just political BS.

In this interview, former premier, Rachel Notley provides what I think is an apt characterization of Premier Smith's comments as to the Alberta/CanadaLiberal relationship. Ms. Notley starts making the specific reference to it at around 9:02 and rounds it out with Smith "channeling the separatist elements of the base in order to hold on to her leadership".

That's something I would agree with Notley about. Smith is an opportunist, always has been an opportunist, always will be an opportunist and the opportunity that she has often courted (and then occasionally abandons) is the more right of Alberta conservatism (they've had other names over the years). It was demonstrated in 1999, when as a newly (first time) elected Calgary Board of Education trustee, the board became so dysfunctional under her as President of Trustees that the provincial government dissolved the board within months and called another election the same year. Likewise, when as Leader of the Wildrose (the more conservative Alberta conservative political party) that was the official opposition to the Progressive Conservative government, she crossed the floor, bringing along a few more Wildrose members. In the provincial election that followed not only did Smith lose her seat, but the NDP came from third party to form government under Notley.

 

[RangerRay]

I had a bit of a panic attack at some earlier numbers that looked more solid than I thought. The minority looks a bit more solid and the NDP contingent does not strike me as overly strong. Here’s hoping Carney doesn’t bother with a formal agreement with the NDP.

After mulling things over, I don’t think it’s fair to say that the Tories lost support since the current unpleasantness started; they seem to have remained stable while the Liberals are the NDP’s lunch. If the Liberals continue on this way, this presents an opportunity for the Tories to play for the middle. I still think that they should abandon the Popular Front mentality of “no enemies on our right” and get their comms team to grow up. If they don’t, I fear they may have hit their ceiling, which while higher than ever, is not high enough if they want to defeat a Liberal/NDP hybrid Frankenstein monster.

I still hold out hope for either a Liberal/Conservative Grand Coalition, or the Liberals getting half a dozen sober-minded Tories to defect.

I also forgot to add…

Although I’ve been critical of Poilievre, I believe he should get another kick at the cat. If he learns the lessons of the last few months, or if Carney thunders, he might pull a rabbit out of his hat next time.

 

[Maxman1]

Elizabeth May is apparently open to being Speaker.

Green party’s Elizabeth May open to running for House Speaker, joining Carney cabinet

Green party Leader Elizabeth May, the lone member of her party to be re-elected, says she’s open to throwing her hat in the ring for Speaker of the House when the next Parliament begins.

www.ctvnews.ca

 

[RangerRay]

Elizabeth May is apparently open to being Speaker.

Green party’s Elizabeth May open to running for House Speaker, joining Carney cabinet

Green party Leader Elizabeth May, the lone member of her party to be re-elected, says she’s open to throwing her hat in the ring for Speaker of the House when the next Parliament begins.

www.ctvnews.ca

Of course she is. Anything to be relevant.

 

[Furniture]

If a separating jurisdiction refused to accept any liability for GoC debts and decided not to borrow to fund its operations - to strictly balance its budgets - how could a "share" be forced on it?

The same way governments get people to pay taxes; force, or the threat of force.

 

[CBH99]

Elizabeth May is apparently open to being Speaker.

Green party’s Elizabeth May open to running for House Speaker, joining Carney cabinet

Green party Leader Elizabeth May, the lone member of her party to be re-elected, says she’s open to throwing her hat in the ring for Speaker of the House when the next Parliament begins.

www.ctvnews.ca

Who?? (Sarcasm)

 

[The Bread Guy]

Tick, tick, tick ...

Some Conservative MPs voice support for Poilievre as party stays silent on next moves

OTTAWA - Some Conservative MPs are expressing support for party leader Pierre Poilievre after he lost both the federal election and his own seat on Monday.

www.thecanadianpressnews.ca

... with this voice piping up again:

... "My view is he's not going anywhere," said Kory Teneycke, Ontario Premier Doug Ford's former campaign manager and a former director of communications for former prime minister Stephen Harper.

Teneycke — who made headlines during the election when he told media that Poilievre's team had committed "campaign malpractice" — said the Conservative campaign pivoted and improved as time went on.

He said Poilievre will stay on because he finished "strong enough that there'll be a lot of people in the party that will want that to happen."

"I think the caucus that was elected this election is chock-full of Poilievre loyalists and people who owe their seat to his leadership, and I think they'll very much want to see him stay," he added ...

 

[MilEME09]

Minority just got a little smaller, recount slips a seat from liberal to BQ

Terrebonne riding flips from the Liberals back to the Bloc after validation process

The federal riding of Terrebonne in Quebec has gone from the Liberals’ win column back to the Bloc Québécois after a post-election vote validation process.

www.ctvnews.ca

 

[Stoker]

So I have been reading that Alberta if separated would have to assume part of the national debt. Would Canada be obligated to give Alberta their share of CPP?

 

[The Bread Guy]

rumors Kerry Diotte has offered to relinquish his seat so Pierre can run in a by-election in edmonton. This would be a gutsy move considering the CPC won this riding due to vote spliting, the LPC and NDP took 52% of the vote

Yeah, about that …

#WildernessOfPoliticalMirrors?

 

[Remius]

So I have been reading that Alberta if separated would have to assume part of the national debt. Would Canada be obligated to give Alberta their share of CPP?

Their rightful share? Sure. But not that made up number they think they are owed.

Also:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1917783176111612093

 

[QV]

So I have been reading that Alberta if separated would have to assume part of the national debt. Would Canada be obligated to give Alberta their share of CPP?

I guess it would just be part of the negotiations. Take a portion of the debt, take a portion of the CPP... take a portion of the CAF (except Navy)...... no more equalization payments (which would fund a lot of improved healthcare, improvements for FN, and a robust Alberta Defence Force)...

 

[Stoker]

Their rightful share? Sure. But not that made up number they think they are owed.

Also:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1917783176111612093

For sure unless they just do it anyways. Before separation arrange a deal with the US as the 51st state with military support and the promise of new infrastructure, clean water and recognise their treaty rights. Not saying it will ever happen but the US complicates matters here. Could Canada survive?

 

[brihard]

Their rightful share? Sure. But not that made up number they think they are owed.

Also:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1917783176111612093

And this in large part is why an Alberta separation resulting in a new state with borders matching its current one is a myth. Separatists are basically children and should be given the same firm, patient tolerance, but they don’t dictate adult affairs. If they achieve a succesful referendum, then serious discussions can start. However, in the same breath, the various First Nationa will be voting on whether they and their treaty lands will be remaining a part of Canada.

Fortunately a strong majority of Albertans don’t want this and won’t go for it, so it will be one of those background discussions. Hopefully, despite their background noise, the federal government can make real progress in addressing some of the very valid and real grievances of Alberta and the prairies writ large. It’s still an important thing to address and the right thing to do… But not because the kids are rowdy.

 

[The Bread Guy]

For sure unless they just do it anyways. Before separation arrange a deal with the US as the 51st state with military support and the promise of new infrastructure, clean water and recognise their treaty rights. Not saying it will ever happen but the US complicates matters here. Could Canada survive?

Interesting paper on co-operation vs conflict with Canada’s First Nations from a while back suggests FNs may be able to resist things more than one might guess (check the section on the resources security paradox for example) - also attached if link doesn't work for you …

https://www.macdonaldlaurier.ca/files/pdf/2013.01.05-MLI-Canada_FirstNations_BLAND_vWEB-V2.pdf

Also, I don’t think a treaty can very easily be “ handed over” to a third party - be it a province or another country.

 

[Remius]

Interesting paper on co-operation vs conflict with Canada’s First Nations from a while back suggests FNs may be able to resist things more than one might guess (check the section on the resources security paradox for example)…

https://www.macdonaldlaurier.ca/files/pdf/2013.01.05-MLI-Canada_FirstNations_BLAND_vWEB-V2.pdf

Also, I don’t think a treaty can very easily be “ handed over” to a third party - be it a province or another country.

It’s a bit of a pipe dream tbh. But we have the mechanisms in place. Generally though both sides won’t like the reality of said action. Brexit is good example of buyers remorse.

 

[Navy_Pete]

In principle I believe that is how it ought to be, but in reality how is that supposed to work? A truck shows up at the separating Parliament's door and shovels a bunch of debt certificates across the threshold and the driver says, "Here, these are yours now"? The creditors have an arrangement with Canada; they'll expect their money back from Canada, in Canadian dollars.

If a separating jurisdiction refused to accept any liability for GoC debts and decided not to borrow to fund its operations - to strictly balance its budgets - how could a "share" be forced on it?

Alberta directly benefits from shared Canadian infrastructure including rail and highways. They also benefit from trade and other various international agreements. Canada negotiating that has a lot more leverage than any individual province, the same way the EU trade block has much more leverage than any individual country.

I think there are reasonable complaints about things like the approval process and timelines for major resources extraction projects, and the current trend of Alberta paying out more than they pay in, but they've also been a have not province supported by the rest of the country, and could be again if fortunes turn against Albertan heavy crude exports to the US, so don't think there will be people turning down EI if they need it.

Similarly, there is a massive liability in orphaned oil wells being offloaded to the fed gov by the province.

Standing on it's own, the US could simply embargo Albertan oil and quickly bankrupt the entire 'country' of Alberta (which would be missing big chunks of federal land and be essentially landlocked), and force massively punishing terms to extract maximum resources out of it without giving Alberta anything, and probably would absorb it as a protectorate so wouldn't even get citizen rights or any representation to be able to influence US politics.

That's pretty much what Trump said he wants to do to the entireity of Canada, so why would you expect a complete narcisisst to not do the same thing to Albertans? He doesn't care about American citizens, why would he care about them?

 

[Remius]

Alberta directly benefits from shared Canadian infrastructure including rail and highways. They also benefit from trade and other various international agreements. Canada negotiating that has a lot more leverage than any individual province, the same way the EU trade block has much more leverage than any individual country.

I think there are reasonable complaints about things like the approval process and timelines for major resources extraction projects, and the current trend of Alberta paying out more than they pay in, but they've also been a have not province supported by the rest of the country, and could be again if fortunes turn against Albertan heavy crude exports to the US, so don't think there will be people turning down EI if they need it.

Similarly, there is a massive liability in orphaned oil wells being offloaded to the fed gov by the province.

Standing on it's own, the US could simply embargo Albertan oil and quickly bankrupt the entire 'country' of Alberta (which would be missing big chunks of federal land and be essentially landlocked), and force massively punishing terms to extract maximum resources out of it without giving Alberta anything, and probably would absorb it as a protectorate so wouldn't even get citizen rights or any representation to be able to influence US politics.

That's pretty much what Trump said he wants to do to the entireity of Canada, so why would you expect a complete narcisisst to not do the same thing to Albertans? He doesn't care about American citizens, why would he care about them?

Add to that, Alberta would be an even smaller voice and representation in the US as they wouldn’t even get statehood and no state is giving up seats for what will be less than the 4 million people it currently has.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Add to that, Alberta would be an even smaller voice and representation in the US as they wouldn’t even get statehood and no state is giving up seats for what will be less than the 4 million people it currently has.

Speaking of bribing people increase their electorate with like minded Canadians

Province now accepting applications for 'Alberta is Calling' moving bonus​

Skilled tradespeople can apply for $5,000 bonus to offset moving costs​

The Alberta government is offering to cover moving costs for up to 2,000 skilled tradespeople who settled in the province last year, as part of its "Alberta is Calling" campaign.

On Thursday, applications opened for a $5,000 moving bonus, available to those who arrived between May 1 and Dec. 31, 2024.

The first 2,000 applicants from a list of eligible occupations — including aircraft mechanics and construction labourers — will receive a one-time, refundable tax credit.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/moving-bonus-elligible-calling-1.7523967#:~:text=The%20Alberta%20government%20is%20offering,and%20Dec.%2031%2C%202024.