Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???

[daftandbarmy]

This might make him the representative for Wainwright, but I can't be sure as it looks like the electoral boundary is a little bit south of the training area

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[brihard]

This might make him the representative for Wainwright, but I can't be sure as it looks like the electoral boundary is a little bit south of the training area

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This suggests that the power brokers within the party have already chosen this COA, notwithstanding whatever might happen at an eventual convention and leadership review.

 

[MilEME09]

I gotta say this makes Pierre look like a bit of a dick

https://twitter.com/x/status/1918357159273795780

 

[ballz]

So was PPs Carleton riding...

I don't really think the Carleton riding result is indicative of anything to do with PP. As mentioned by Kory Teneycke, that whole area went red in the provincial election as well.

Part of the swing probably has more do with the re-drawing of the electoral boundaries, the geographic area voting red, and definitely the "borrowing" of NDP votes by the liberals. PP won the seat in 2004 with 45.66% of the vote, he's basically floated between 45-55% of the vote in 8 different elections, and had 45.83% of the vote when he lost. It's not like his support collapsed.

Having a loser "lose their own seat" seems to be an indicator of "just how bad the election went" under their leadership, but all other indicators are not exactly showing that he's toast.

I think the CPC would be stupid to replace him, just like they would have been stupid to replace Harper in 2004.

I gotta say this makes Pierre look like a bit of a dick

https://twitter.com/x/status/1918357159273795780

I'm sure he's getting rewarded with something far more lucrative....

 

[Maxman1]

A by-election would be six months from now, and presumably he would still be the sitting MP until the day of, so would that be enough to qualify him for the pension?

And typically, an MP who steps down for the leader to run is rewarded with a Senate appointment.

 

[Remius]

I gotta say this makes Pierre look like a bit of a dick

https://twitter.com/x/status/1918357159273795780

Not to mention he hasn’t congratulated Fanjoy on his win.

 

[MilEME09]

A by-election would be six months from now, and presumably he would still be the sitting MP until the day of, so would that be enough to qualify him for the pension?

And typically, an MP who steps down for the leader to run is rewarded with a Senate appointment.

According to what's being reported the earliest is late june

 

[lenaitch]

I took @Stoker's question as stated without the earlier context. If AB could refuse to accept a share of debt, Canada could refuse to grant a share of CPP assets. Regardless, the assets aren't Alberta's any more than someone's mutual funds would be.

I agree. The assets, debts and proceeds belong to the two contributing parties: the government and workers/pensioners, not any one province. When province a contributor lives in is incidental.

I think if a referendum were to take place today the result would be roughly 20%-30% give or take... which is significant considering there are no real details or options presented. 20-30% want to go without even knowing a plan. Sask is a little higher I think. This is a very bad situation for Canada.

If there was a period of time, 6 months - 1 year, during which a campaign educating Albertans and FNs what this would mean for them, including details and options presented by the US or pure independent secessionists which address the chief concerns, I guess support could reach 60% or higher for leaving one way or another.

Canada and the smarter provinces would obviously be against this fracture and Canada's media propaganda arm (CBC) would work to considerably undermine any education effort made by the secessionists or offers of statehood by the US. Remember, Quebec almost made it happen, and that was without an offer to join the US and was before the proliferation of information on the internet and big changes in perceptions of MSM integrity like today.

If this is managed/sold a certain way, I suspect the chances it succeeds is far from zero. And this should scare the crap out of the RoC.

So one side would be 'education' but the other side would be 'propaganda'.

Sounds like you have your bags packed and truck idling.

 

[Blackadder1916]

A by-election would be six months from now, and presumably he would still be the sitting MP until the day of, so would that be enough to qualify him for the pension?

A by-election is only called when there is a "vacancy". He would have to resign before the process to call a by-election begins.

The Calling of a Federal By-election

Information on why a federal by-election is called and the procedures involved.

www.elections.ca

Under the Parliament of Canada Act, when a seat in the House becomes vacant, the Speaker of the House of Commons informs the Chief Electoral Officer by means of a Speaker's warrant. If the Speaker is absent, or if it is the Speaker's seat that is vacant, two members of the House of Commons may address the warrant to the Chief Electoral Officer. The Parliament of Canada Act includes an exception where a vacancy occurs in the nine months before a fixed date general election; in that case, no by-election is called and the seat remains vacant until the general election.

After receiving the warrant, section 57 of the Canada Elections Act authorizes the Governor in Council to fix the date on which the Chief Electoral Officer is to issue the writ. The date of issuance must fall between the 11th and 180th days after the Chief Electoral Officer receives the warrant from the Speaker (or the two members of the House). The Governor in Council also fixes the date for election day, which cannot be earlier than 36 days, or later than 50 days, after the Chief Electoral Officer issues the writ.

But extended dates may not be an issue.

Mark Carney says he will quickly call byelection for Pierre Poilievre, Alberta MP to resign

Incoming Alberta Conservative MP Damien Kurek has announced he will step aside so Pierre Poilievre can run in a byelection.

toronto.citynews.ca

Prime Minister Mark Carney says he will quickly call a byelection for Conservative Party of Canada Leader Pierre Poilievre as an incoming Alberta MP has announced he’ll step aside.

“I will ensure that it happens as soon as possible … no games, nothing, straight,” Carney told reporters Friday morning when asked about the matter during his first news conference since winning Monday’s election

He said he conveyed his decision to Poilievre directly.

And typically, an MP who steps down for the leader to run is rewarded with a Senate appointment.

Unlikely that a Liberal PM would reward a CPC lackey.

 

[ArmyRick]

@Remius
"You are confusing ABC with ABPP."

No. Pierre part of the team. ABC is ABPP. Take note if it weren't for the NDP completely shiting the bed, The CPC would most likely be the Government.

"Plenty of people would in fact vote CPC if it had an adult leading them."

Plenty of people DID vote for PP and the CPC team. Carney did beat him though in numbers, but not by much (It was a hair when you look at the popular vote). The NDP and BQ were the ones who suffered.

"The LPC decided to turf their dislikeable guy and bring in an adult"

Trudeau very existence in the Liberal party (and his toxic reputation) was destroying the party, they were way over do to toss him. Bring in an adult? You mean they brought in a corporate elite globalist. Notice the Nanos post election vote shares shows the only age demographic to vote significantly more for Carney LPC was 55+. Hell the media been saying it for quite awhile.

As of today, Pierre is taking Damien Kurek's seat. And Carney promises to get on quickly with a by election. So we will take our chances on the guy YOU don't like. If we lose again, fair enough, we lost.

"So open your eyes"

You open your own damn eyes. First, a little reminder Paul Martin beat Harper in 2004 with a minority win and it did not last long , did it? 2 years later Harper beat Martin and stayed in power for 9 years. People got more of a taste of the direction Paul Martin was going and they decided no. They cautiously voted Harper in with a minority.

Next, Wynne won hands down majority in 2014, and 4 years later, she couldn't even fill a minivan. People got a good whiff of her policies and disasters, and decided no freaking more.

Carney been PM for over a month, almost 2. Wait until Canadians get a year os so of him. You may see the tides change awfully fast. And I can re-assure you, that changing the seat holder next election won't matter. People will scornfully throw out the Liberals. And the NDP won't be a factor.

BTW, I did predict Singh and the NDP would get destroyed for their becoming "the other Liberals"

In 2021, Trudeau used "covid pandemic/crisis" to help him out (plus Erin O'Toole flip flopped and was a weak leader) and 2025, Carney needed the fear of "Trump" to convince the CBC/CTV/Global watchers give him a minority.

Final thing to think about. The 35 and under crowd are probably permanently disenfranchised with the Liberals and the NDP, they have felt the pain the most. If Carney holds on a few more years (somehow), that crowd will only get bigger. And the over 65 crowd will be thinning out so to speak. That means the non-Liberal voting base will get stronger and stronger.

 

[Maxman1]

Unlikely that a Liberal PM would reward a CPC lackey.

I meant by a hypothetical future Conservative government. Although Kurek has apparently announced he intends to run again in the next general election, in the same riding.

 

[ArmyRick]

Just curious, how many of you have read his book "Values"? I am working on it. Its a dull read but yikes, he comes across as a bit of an eco marxist SJW.

 

[ArmyRick]

I gotta say this makes Pierre look like a bit of a dick

https://twitter.com/x/status/1918357159273795780

No, that would be you that looks like that for even saying it. He did not have to give up his seat.

 

[ArmyRick]

So Pierre running in a by election and apparently Carney says he will make it happen quickly.

If this is true, then salute to Mr Carney. It shows he is NOT afraid to defend his actions in parliament from the "attack dog"

 

[suffolkowner]

Just curious, how many of you have read his book "Values"? I am working on it. Its a dull read but yikes, he comes across as a bit of an eco marxist SJW.

a Goldman Sachs/Central Banker marxist? Ill have to give it a read

 

[brihard]

@Remius
"You are confusing ABC with ABPP."

No. Pierre part of the team. ABC is ABPP. Take note if it weren't for the NDP completely shiting the bed, The CPC would most likely be the Government.

What’s your math on that? The CPC picked up quite a few seats from NDP as well. Comparing poll by poll to the 2021 results and accounting to the boundary redistribution, more NDP seats went CPC than LPC. NDP support by no means went universally Liberal. The LPC picked up more Bloc and CPC seats than NDP, though I acknowledge that flight of individual NDP votes certainly helped LPC flip some seats from both shades of blue. But it’s very difficult to defend a claim that the NDP collapse cost Conservatives the government.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Just curious, how many of you have read his book "Values"? I am working on it. Its a dull read but yikes, he comes across as a bit of an eco marxist SJW.

A book that reflects the author - a rather unspectacular, though professionally accomplished, globalist Keynesian and a complete opposite to Trump and alot of the rest of the world.

The Guardian likes him, which speaks volumes of course. Trump, OTOH, will be enraged by his approach I'm sure



The embrace of markets and their “subjective” valuations has led to a society that has been robbed of its capacity, declares Carney, to express what is important to us. His seven key values are: solidarity, fairness, responsibility, resilience, sustainability, dynamism and humility – all laced with compassion. That leads to three key components of any good society: fairness between the generations, in the distribution of income and of life chances. He opens Value(s) citing Pope Francis at a Bank of England lunch deploring how current trends are turning the wine of humanity into a toxic grappa of self-interest – and ends by hoping that his book can turn grappa back into wine.

He has succeeded: Value(s) is something of a landmark achievement. Carney is at his most sure-footed and convincing on the rise of a market society and the accompanying decline of values. We are at the risk of being overwhelmed by “a utopia of wealth and a dystopia of personal relations”, as one economist he quotes puts it. The book provides an original condemnation of today’s economics as surrendering the quest for objective value grounded in the essence of our humanity. As markets best reflect our subjective preferences, there is nothing to be done except surrender to their will. And the same process is being extended deep into our social marrow – even to health and the value placed on lives. Of course, as he readily concedes, markets unleash energy and dynamism, but to believe that they are always right and cannot be altered is to sign up to a quasi-religious faith. He scorns persistent market fables – “this time will be different” (the most expensive words in English, as he says), “markets always clear” and “markets are moral”. The 10 pages in which he takes down these myths are worth the book alone.

Value(s) by Mark Carney review – call for a new kind of economics

This weighty assault on the modern free market by the former governor of the Bank of England is a landmark achievement

www.theguardian.com

​

 

[Blackadder1916]

I meant by a hypothetical future Conservative government. Although Kurek has apparently announced he intends to run again in the next general election, in the same riding.

Seen.

Though I wonder how a (hypothetical) future Senate appointment would sit philosophically with the Alberta conservative (Conservative, Reform, UCP, Wildrose . . .) continuing demand that Alberta's senators be selected from those who were elected according to the Alberta Senate Election Act.

 

[The Bread Guy]

... He did not have to give up his seat.

And if the Liberals were in the same situation, you wouldn't suspect some ... persuasion from on high? Especially if the coach's advisor was known for being ruthlessly cutthroat politically?

I'll admit it works no matter the party involved, but I'm guessing there may have been more than zero "voluntold" here - especially if brighter opportunities are (not) offered (out loud or in writing).

 

[dapaterson]

When US airlines overbook they make an offer for people to take the next flight, then raise the offer until someone accepts it.

I suspect the CPC has similar methods in play.