Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???

[QV]

Alberta directly benefits from shared Canadian infrastructure including rail and highways. They also benefit from trade and other various international agreements. Canada negotiating that has a lot more leverage than any individual province, the same way the EU trade block has much more leverage than any individual country.

I think there are reasonable complaints about things like the approval process and timelines for major resources extraction projects, and the current trend of Alberta paying out more than they pay in, but they've also been a have not province supported by the rest of the country, and could be again if fortunes turn against Albertan heavy crude exports to the US, so don't think there will be people turning down EI if they need it.

Similarly, there is a massive liability in orphaned oil wells being offloaded to the fed gov by the province.

Standing on it's own, the US could simply embargo Albertan oil and quickly bankrupt the entire 'country' of Alberta (which would be missing big chunks of federal land and be essentially landlocked), and force massively punishing terms to extract maximum resources out of it without giving Alberta anything, and probably would absorb it as a protectorate so wouldn't even get citizen rights or any representation to be able to influence US politics.

That's pretty much what Trump said he wants to do to the entireity of Canada, so why would you expect a complete narcisisst to not do the same thing to Albertans? He doesn't care about American citizens, why would he care about them?

Add to that, Alberta would be an even smaller voice and representation in the US as they wouldn’t even get statehood and no state is giving up seats for what will be less than the 4 million people it currently has.

Peter Zeihan's analysis suggests Alberta would prosper massively on it's own or as a state. Now I don't agree with everything PZ says, but his analysis is usually worth considering.

 

[QV]

I think she'd actually be a pretty good Speaker, as she really knows Parliamentary rules, and has really nothing to lose by enforcing them even handedly.

Even handedly? Does her party not running candidates in ridings that would take votes from the LPC suggest she'd be even handed?

 

[Maxman1]

Ahh. Great analysis, and a welcome contribution to the discussion.

So basically, you are saying this is Fake News (ie something that one disagrees with)?

No, I'm saying AI is notorious for generating false information.

Understanding the Limitations of Language Models

Dive into the world of large language models (LLMs) and explore their capabilities and limitations. Learn about the risks of hallucinations and misleading outputs, the technical limitations of input and output length, the challenges with structured data, biases in LLM outputs, and the occasional...

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One significant concern with LLMs is the potential for hallucinations and the generation of false information. LLMs can sometimes produce confident and authoritative-sounding outputs that are entirely made up. This can mislead users into believing that the generated content is factual and reliable. Such hallucinations can have serious consequences, as seen in the case of a lawyer who unknowingly submitted a legal filing with fabricated court cases generated by an LLM. This resulted in sanctions and a cringe-inducing court hearing.

To mitigate the risk of misleading outputs, it is crucial to critically evaluate and fact-check the information generated by LLMs. Understand that LLMs lack real-world knowledge and can inadvertently produce inaccurate or fictional content.

 

[MilEME09]

Peter Zeihan's analysis suggests Alberta would prosper massively on it's own or as a state. Now I don't agree with everything PZ says, but his analysis is usually worth considering.

Thats assuming AB can even negotiate its exit with Canada and FN, treaty 6,7, and 8, the Blackfoot Confederacy have all said not happening. Without treaty 7 and the blackfoot, southern AB stays with Canada, without treaty 8 territory northern AB, including the oil sands stays as well. The people pushing seperation think it would be easy like say kosovo leaving serbia, in reality this is completely DOA, not to mention because of the clarity act, i doubt they would get a clear majority anyway.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Not sure I understand the statement "no more equalization payments" leading to better health care etc?

As I understand it, Alberta makes no direct equalization payments to the Feds or other Provinces, so am I missing something?

And although AB would be able to use its tax revenues in any way it saw fit, I think it unlikely that the Feds will continue the $273M for Heath Transfer, or the $87M for Social Transfer that Alberta currently receives twice a month, which total over $8B per year.

Or am I reading this wrong?

A way to look at the situation is to look at net outflows from AB (mainly GST and federal personal and corporate income taxes) versus inflows (transfers to the province and individuals). Albertans almost without exception contribute more than they and Alberta receive back. If they lost the federal outflows and inflows, they'd be in a net surplus situation. Of course, the costs of separation even without an acrimonious non-negotiated absolute break might wash that surplus out, even after tallying up the share of other federal spending they might forego by having a much smaller per capita government operations cost.

 

[PPCLI Guy]

No, I'm saying AI is notorious for generating false information.

Understanding the Limitations of Language Models

Dive into the world of large language models (LLMs) and explore their capabilities and limitations. Learn about the risks of hallucinations and misleading outputs, the technical limitations of input and output length, the challenges with structured data, biases in LLM outputs, and the occasional...

www.linkedin.com

Thanks - I am well-versed in all of that and do a risk calculation on likelihood of verisimilitude - an AI summary of the underlying official sources referenced in that summary, or the summary provided in a blog, discussion forum etc by a single human with unknowable biases..

 

[QV]

And this in large part is why an Alberta separation resulting in a new state with borders matching its current one is a myth. Separatists are basically children and should be given the same firm, patient tolerance, but they don’t dictate adult affairs. If they achieve a succesful referendum, then serious discussions can start. However, in the same breath, the various First Nationa will be voting on whether they and their treaty lands will be remaining a part of Canada.

Fortunately a strong majority of Albertans don’t want this and won’t go for it, so it will be one of those background discussions. Hopefully, despite their background noise, the federal government can make real progress in addressing some of the very valid and real grievances of Alberta and the prairies writ large. It’s still an important thing to address and the right thing to do… But not because the kids are rowdy.

I think if a referendum were to take place today the result would be roughly 20%-30% give or take... which is significant considering there are no real details or options presented. 20-30% want to go without even knowing a plan. Sask is a little higher I think. This is a very bad situation for Canada.

If there was a period of time, 6 months - 1 year, during which a campaign educating Albertans and FNs what this would mean for them, including details and options presented by the US or pure independent secessionists which address the chief concerns, I guess support could reach 60% or higher for leaving one way or another.

Canada and the smarter provinces would obviously be against this fracture and Canada's media propaganda arm (CBC) would work to considerably undermine any education effort made by the secessionists or offers of statehood by the US. Remember, Quebec almost made it happen, and that was without an offer to join the US and was before the proliferation of information on the internet and big changes in perceptions of MSM integrity like today.

If this is managed/sold a certain way, I suspect the chances it succeeds is far from zero. And this should scare the crap out of the RoC.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Great points. I found this:

AI Overview​

Learn more​

​

In 2024, Canada's revenue from Alberta, as administered by the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA), was approximately $180.586 billion. This includes income tax revenues (both personal and corporate), the provincial portion of the harmonized sales tax (HST), and other revenues.​

​

Here's a more detailed breakdown:​

​

​

• Total Income Tax Revenues:$138.305 billion. This includes:
  • Personal Income Tax: $102.481 billion.
  • Corporate Income Tax: $35.824 billion.
• Provincial Portion of HST: $40.714 billion.
• Other Revenues: $1.567 billion.

These figures represent revenues collected for provincial and territorial governments and First Nations. Additionally, the CRA administers revenues for the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) as well, with CPP pension contributions, interest, and penalties totaling $81.881 billion in 2024.​

I can't imagine where those numbers come from, but AB does not account for almost half of federal income from income taxes. The Fiscal Reference Tables for 2023 (ie. information ends at 2022-23) show total federal revenue of $208B for personal income taxes and $94B for corporate. Federal revenues didn't grow astronomically in the past two years.

 

[MilEME09]

HM King Charles has been invited to open parliament

https://twitter.com/x/status/1918308848542347720

 

[Quirky]

Thats assuming AB can even negotiate its exit with Canada and FN, treaty 6,7, and 8, the Blackfoot Confederacy have all said not happening. Without treaty 7 and the blackfoot, southern AB stays with Canada, without treaty 8 territory northern AB, including the oil sands stays as well.

I would simply ignore the treaties, probably not a practical, but I would open with that. The treaties are a pointless relic from a bygone era. It would be between a new county that didn't sign them and a group of people that weren't a nation state in any way that is functional. The answer is to just give the reservation land to the people who live there and have lived there and then turn it into privately held land like any other in the new country. People ignore aboriginal land titles because they don't exist, it's based on stories and tales.

The issue is they will still have their hands out for free money from whoever is in charge. When they don’t get it they’ll block roads with flaming tires and other crap.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Thanks - I am well-versed in all of that and do a risk calculation on likelihood of verisimilitude - an AI summary of the underlying official sources referenced in that summary, or the summary provided in a blog, discussion forum etc by a single human with unknowable biases..

After seeing that, I'm not sure AIs can do arithmetic or confident that they can correlate figures and statements accurately.

A passing familiarity with the typical bottom line numbers of the federal government is enough to quickly assess the sanity of the information.

 

[PPCLI Guy]

After seeing that, I'm not sure AIs can do arithmetic or confident that they can correlate figures and statements accurately.

A passing familiarity with the typical bottom line numbers of the federal government is enough to quickly assess the sanity of the information.

Can you help me find an authoritative source? I seem to have exceeded my google-fu capability...

I am trying to understand the problem set, rather than make any specific point

 

[The Bread Guy]

Even handedly? Does her party not running candidates in ridings that would take votes from the LPC suggest she'd be even handed?

That would make her different from any other MP in the House that could be considered how, exactly?

 

[MilEME09]

I would simply ignore the treaties, probably not a practical, but I would open with that. The treaties are a pointless relic from a bygone era. It would be between a new county that didn't sign them and a group of people that weren't a nation state in any way that is functional. The answer is to just give the reservation land to the people who live there and have lived there and then turn it into privately held land like any other in the new country. People ignore aboriginal land titles because they don't exist, it's based on stories and tales.

The issue is they will still have their hands out for free money from whoever is in charge. When they don’t get it they’ll block roads with flaming tires and other crap.

ignoring the treaties wouldn't be possible, the legal framework set up means if they ignore it, they wouldn't likely find the separation declared invalid. On your comment of money, Canada as a whole can offer more then an independent AB ever could.

 

[Czech_pivo]

HM King Charles has been invited to open parliament

https://twitter.com/x/status/1918308848542347720

Good - 100% in favour of this.

 

[IKnowNothing]

If there was a period of time, 6 months - 1 year, during which a campaign educating Albertans and FNs what this would mean for them, including details and options presented by the US or pure independent secessionists which address the chief concerns, I guess support could reach 60% or higher for leaving one way or another.
managed/sold a certain way, I suspect the chances it succeeds is far from zero. And this should scare the crap out of the RoC.

That would likely depend entirely on whether the "education" was grounded and credible, or a rose tinted snow job analogous to the APP propaganda.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Can you help me find an authoritative source? I seem to have exceeded my google-fu capability...

I am trying to understand the problem set, rather than make any specific point

Fiscal Reference Tables. Good for big picture bottom-line numbers. Published each fall for previous year. Comparison of the documents across years will show that adjustments are often made to previous years' figures as time passes.

StatsCan Income Statistics. I occasionally use the breakdowns by tax bracket to understand "who" is paying "what". If you have a lot of patience, I think you could stitch together a by-province view from the by-federal-district, but the spreadsheet would be large.

The Library of Parliament report I linked above. Good for visualizing relative figures. I found one for each of 2018 and 2020. There are a lot of reports on the main menu page; best way in is to choose good search terms and use a web search engine.

All of the canonical (government) data (original or - mostly - synthesized) necessarily lags a year or more behind. Obviously post hoc adjustments occur to some things. Finding figures for specific questions is difficult. Usually I end up with some third party think tank's report, but familiarity with the big picture numbers makes it a lot easier to apply a sniff test to decide whether claims are plausible or ridiculous.

 

[QV]

That would likely depend entirely on whether the "education" was grounded and credible, or a rose tinted snow job analogous to the APP propaganda.

Of course.

I've heard some of the chief concerns being the maintenance of "free healthcare" and pensions, tax implications... and generally from the older generation. These are easily addressed. The "not American" identity is largely a central and eastern Canada sentiment.

Interesting that being Canadian hasn't been top of the list of concerns, anecdotally... For me this hits particularly hard especially after almost three decades of full-time service to my country. I guess a decade of "post national state" nonsense who have no core values and being labelled as a racist misogynist country by the PM can have a detrimental impact on national pride. Salt the wound with policy overtly intending to damage economic interests... it's almost like he intended for this outcome. Take Alberta and Sask out of the HoC and the LPC would never lose an election every again.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Great points. I found this:

AI Overview​

Learn more​

​

In 2024, Canada's revenue from Alberta, as administered by the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA), was approximately $180.586 billion. This includes income tax revenues (both personal and corporate), the provincial portion of the harmonized sales tax (HST), and other revenues.​

​

Here's a more detailed breakdown:​

• Total Income Tax Revenues:$138.305 billion. This includes:
  • Personal Income Tax: $102.481 billion.
  • Corporate Income Tax: $35.824 billion.
• Provincial Portion of HST: $40.714 billion.
• Other Revenues: $1.567 billion.

These figures represent revenues collected for provincial and territorial governments and First Nations. Additionally, the CRA administers revenues for the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) as well, with CPP pension contributions, interest, and penalties totaling $81.881 billion in 2024.​

Tough go, this, via AI & search engines .....

Grok's version (based on per capita estimates), with these caveats: "Data Limitations: The 2024 tax revenue data is not fully finalized, so estimates rely on 2023-24 actuals and 2024-25 projections. Final CRA reports for 2024 may adjust these figures. Provincial vs. Federal: Some sources blur federal and provincial tax revenues. The estimate above focuses on federal taxes collected by the CRA. Transfers Back: Federal transfers to Alberta (e.g., Canada Health Transfer, Canada Social Transfer) are not deducted here, as the question asks for revenue collected, not net contributions. Critical Perspective: The establishment narrative often emphasizes Alberta’s high tax contributions due to its resource wealth, but this can oversimplify fiscal dynamics. Equalization payments and federal spending in Alberta (e.g., infrastructure) complicate the “net contributor” story pushed by some X posts."

Canada likely collected approximately $56.3 billion in federal tax revenue from Alberta in 2024, based on estimates for personal income tax ($29.8 billion), corporate income tax ($15.6 billion), GST ($6.4 billion), and other taxes ($4.5 billion). This figure is an estimate, as finalized 2024 data is not yet available. For precise figures, check CRA or Government of Canada reports for 2024-25 when published.

ChatGPT's version has global, bottom-line total figures with this caveat: "As of now, the Government of Canada does not publicly release detailed breakdowns of federal tax revenues collected by individual provinces, including Alberta, for the 2024 fiscal year. However, we can glean insights from available data and historical trends."

Bing.com: "Revenue from personal income taxes is estimated at $15.6 billion in 2024-25, an increase of $365 million from last year's forecast. Revenue from corporate income taxes is estimated at $7 billion for this year, down $176 million from last year's forecast."

 

[QV]

Thats assuming AB can even negotiate its exit with Canada and FN, treaty 6,7, and 8, the Blackfoot Confederacy have all said not happening. Without treaty 7 and the blackfoot, southern AB stays with Canada, without treaty 8 territory northern AB, including the oil sands stays as well. The people pushing seperation think it would be easy like say kosovo leaving serbia, in reality this is completely DOA, not to mention because of the clarity act, i doubt they would get a clear majority anyway.

Of course they said it's not happening... today. Today is all rhetoric and emotion. Put the details on paper and let's see what changes.