Yup, they are down in the dumps right now. I wouldn't count them out.
I'm keeping an eye on whether they sell their building in downtown Ottawa. I know they leverage it to borrow money to run campaigns, on the assumption that they will get their campaign funds reimbursed. But seeing as they are not getting reimbursed for the majority of their spending last election, do they sell it for a quick influx of cash just to keep the lights on in the "party".
Minority government is like the weather, you don't know what is happening next. Ask Justin or Jagmeet last August if we were going to have an election I April 2025 and I am pretty sure, they would have insisted it would have been October.
Certainly true. By that same token however, if someone had told the CPC in 2021 that the next election would be in April 2025, they wouldn't have believed you. Minority governments may not be the most stable thing ever, but in the right circumstances they can last quite a while.
Political uncertainty is like unseen bad weather. If the Bloc gets a boost in Quebec (ALWAYS a real possibility), the CPC will hold firm and yes, the NDP is down, but I think your complacent in assuming all is good for Carney. Its a razor thin margin for a tipping point to see Carney Liberals voted out.
Could they be voted out? Absolutely. If I were the NDP holding the balance of power and with the financial Armageddon facing them...why?
It would take all three opposition parties to gang together to down the LPC.
CPC, always flush with cash and generally cantankerous, sure, a given.
Bloc, not as flush with cash, but they need to run in 78 ridings only and I've not heard anything about them being hard on for money.
NDP...dead broke. Not recovered in the polls. Leaderless. Don't even have party status.
Do they even run in 343 ridings next election? Do they just focus on ridings they think they can win? Are they a true federal party if they only run in 25-75 ridings? Can they afford to have another result like the last one they just had? Will either the LPC or CPC win a majority stripping them of any semblance of leverage as a party?
It's fun, I guess, to imaging Carney forced into another election right away, but I really, truly, don't see the NDP rushing into political and financial suicide as a party. Unless that changes, Carney can pretty much coasts for the next 2 years, probably 3.
Or another situation, what if Carney gets a bump in the polls in the next few months and decides to roll the dice, seeking a majority?
I really don't see Carney as some high stakes gambler. Man is 3 seats away from a majority, why risk it all? Not impossible, but also not likely.
Minority government is like the weather, you don't know what is happening next.
Absolutely. Could last 6 more months. Could last 4 years.
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