Meanwhile, in La La Land
The Most Doomed City in Canada
What the Big One will do to Victoria
Victorians live in one of the most doomed cities in Canada. It is a scientific certainty that the B.C. capital will be visited with a scale of civic destruction not seen in this country since the 1917 Halifax Explosion. Faced with a 50 per cent chance of a major quake happening within the next 80 years, it is more likely than not that many of the future victims of the Big One are already alive. Despite it all, Victoria often continues to act like a city that doesn’t stand on the brink of catastrophe.
The B.C. capital has the unique curse of being simultaneously threatened by several types of earthquakes at once. It is the closest Canadian population centre to the Cascadia Subduction Zone, the coming-together of two major tectonic plates that will eventually slip and yield “the Big One,” an earthquake expected to be a magnitude nine or greater. The city also sits directly atop a fault line,
the Leech River fault, that can cause highly destructive shallow earthquakes. Victoria is also imperiled by “inslab” earthquakes—small slips from deep within the subduction zone that can radiate upwards.
Compounding the hazard is that Victoria is one of the oldest cities in Western Canada. The same brick buildings and historic homes that make the city a magnet for tourism are also the most vulnerable to the destructive power of an earthquake. Many of those buildings also stand atop soft soil expected to intensify the effects of any shaking.
A “Big One” level earthquake could be expected to kill up to 1,500 people in B.C., utterly dwarfing any disaster that has yet struck the province in modern times.
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Earthquake damage map of Victoria in a worst case scenario. Anything coloured red is expected to suffer “complete” damage, meaning buildings will either collapse or require demolition after the fact.
What the Big One will do to Victoria
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