The RCAF's Next Generation Fighter (CF-188 Replacement)

[Czech_pivo]

It's one thing to split the fleet. And another to shrink the F-35 order to such a small number (32 frames) so that we end up with basically all the overhead of the fleet but a lot less combat power. 32 jets in the fleet means about 20 jets that are combat coded (to use an American term). 50 was about the minimum fleet size to get one gun squadron each of 15 frames in Cold Lake and Bagotville.

Next, if you're going to split the fleet because you want to develop your industry, looking to the past is dumb. We could have joined a sixth gen program and gotten workshare. But now we're basically going to be tied to Saab forever. They'll be worse than Bombardier. We'll have to buy whatever Saab puts out. Even if it's a fighter or AEW plane rejected by several allies. Saab is going to determining what the RCAF looks like from now on.



There's no Ukrainian order. It's an LOI. They don't have money to pay for 150 jets.

Guess who's going to be paying for those aircraft? That's what our aid to Ukraine is going to be once the factory is built.

What could be in the works is the development of a 6th gen fighter with the SK’s, us and the Swedes. I am sure that there are many many moving parts behind the scenes that we are not aware of.
Would a 6th gen fighter developed with SK and Swedes work for you?

The Ukrainian LoI is only different than our LoI for the F35 by 2 things; 1) ours stipulates the buying of 16 of the 88 first and then the future possible purchase of the rest; 2) we can afford to buy 88 if we decide to do so.

A major difference between us joining with say the Brits, Italy and whoever in a ‘workshare’ program is that wouldn’t give us the ability to build an entire aircraft independently ourselves. From an initial read of the G&M article it looks like we will be building the entire plane here in Canada. That’s much different than a workshare program where we might build only the landing gear, flaps and rudder of a plane.

At this point we might be aware of 10-15% of everything that is happening behind the scenes. Even if it’s 30% of what is happening it still means that the majority of the final news is still to come out and all of that might not be ‘bad news’ but incredibly good news overall.

If we go with SK subs and the SK use Bombardiers Global 6500 in their AEW planes, because they are completely disappointed with their E7 purchase, Bombardier becomes a linch pin between us, the Swedes and them. The SK’s haven’t teamed up with anyone yet for their 6th gen plane. They won’t do it with the US or Japan or just about any other Euro country. It very well could be us and the Swedes that team up on this.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Did anyone read this article from 2 days ago?

South Korea Foreign Minister visits Bombardier in Toronto - Canada

South Korea Foreign Minister Cho Hyun visited the Bombardier assembly in Toronto for the G7 Foreign Ministers' Meeting.

canadiandefencereview.com

 

[ytz]

What could be in the works is the development of a 6th gen fighter with the SK’s, us and the Swedes. I am sure that there are many many moving parts behind the scenes that we are not aware of.
Would a 6th gen fighter developed with SK and Swedes work for you?

This is the same company and country that still tries to downplay the value of stealth because they didn't have the ability to build truly stealthy aircraft. Can't wait to hear from Saab how AI isn't necessary for 6th gen. I don't expect Saab's 6th gen to be more capable than an F-35.

A major difference between us joining with say the Brits, Italy and whoever in a ‘workshare’ program is that wouldn’t give us the ability to build an entire aircraft independently ourselves. From an initial read of the G&M article it looks like we will be building the entire plane here in Canada. That’s much different than a workshare program where we might build only the landing gear, flaps and rudder of a plane.

The Globe and Mail article really doesn't say that. It doesn't say how much is being moved over. And localizing the supply chain entirely would be an insane effort that would absolutely balloon the cost of all the aircraft.

But also for our industry. Again, companies are going to get a piece of 70 frames. And lose out on the several hundred GCAP will sell.

The Ukrainian LoI is only different than our LoI for the F35 by 2 things; 1) ours stipulates the buying of 16 of the 88 first and then the future possible purchase of the rest; 2) we can afford to buy 88 if we decide to do so.

Again, Ukraine doesn't have the economy to buy 150 Gripens @ €182M apiece (going by Colombia's order). I think Ukraine is hoping allies fund this. And if the line needs to keep running, the ally that will be funding it, is Canada.

If we go with SK subs and the SK use Bombardiers Global 6500 in their AEW planes

I think it's a foregone conclusion that we'll get the Globaleye if this Saab deal goes through.

People need to understand. This deal happens and we're Saab's bitch.

 

[RangerRay]

I say get the full F35 order of 88 or more now, and get in on the ground floor of a 6th generation program in Europe or SK/Japan.

 

[dapaterson]

I say get the full F35 order of 88 or more now, and get in on the ground floor of a 6th generation program in Europe or SK/Japan.

We got in the ground floor for JSF. How's that going?

 

[Czech_pivo]

This is the same company and country that still tries to downplay the value of stealth because they didn't have the ability to build truly stealthy aircraft. Can't wait to hear from Saab how AI isn't necessary for 6th gen. I don't expect Saab's 6th gen to be more capable than an F-35.

Maybe that’s where Canada’s lead in AI will be used for this development.
The U of Waterloo is among the best of the best in the areas of computer science, physics, math. This area of expertise can very well be used going forward to develop our own stealth technology.

The Globe and Mail article really doesn't say that. It doesn't say how much is being moved over. And localizing the supply chain entirely would be an insane effort that would absolutely balloon the cost of all the aircraft.

But also for our industry. Again, companies are going to get a piece of 70 frames. And lose out on the several hundred GCAP will sell.

We will have to see what the final number of F35 turns out to be. All this hand wringing might turn out to be nothing at all.

Again, Ukraine doesn't have the economy to buy 150 Gripens @ €182M apiece (going by Colombia's order). I think Ukraine is hoping allies fund this. And if the line needs to keep running, the ally that will be funding it, is Canada.

True the Ukkies are broke. Colombia’s contract includes the building of new facilities to house/maintain their Gripens. I think this cost could be excluded from the Ukkies price. They have depth of knowledge/experience on the engineering/building side to build maintain their own facilities.

I think it's a foregone conclusion that we'll get the Globaleye if this Saab deal goes through.

Could very well be. But does it mean that we couldn’t expand the capabilities of the Globaleye to include AAR in the future?

People need to understand. This deal happens and we're Saab's bitch.

Does that mean we’ll be the Hanwha’s bitch if we do a deal with them on the subs?