Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???

[RangerRay]

I think a fair number of blue will go over to him, for the following reasons.
1) He continues to spend $ on the CAF
2) He pulls off a oil pipeline, more LNG and Nuclear
3) He creates a more business centric environment
4) He continues to say things like ‘no more feminist foreign policy
5) He removes the remaining EV pillars
6) He solidifies a working relationship with Alberta and keeps Ontario happy
7) Throws more NSS work at the Maritimes

The guy will be golden.

I would add: just being serious and competent (or at least more so than whoever his opponent is)

 

[MilEME09]

Red tory is not quantifiable and is used by LPC faithful to hope they can get some swing votes. Its pretty similar to the irrelevance of PPC on the electoral landscape.

Thats because the liberals offered the 90s and early 2000s were in the center so those swing votes meant more for taking votes from the PCs or the Canadian Alliance

 

[The Bread Guy]

What Carney needs to be careful with is a splitter, fringe group breaking away under Stevie or another.
I don’t believe Karina Gould is a happy camper since she got bounced from Cabinet. Same with Erskine.

I think folks in his closest circle may think as long as his personal appeal numbers are still better than PP's, he should be able to maintain the main body of the herd. I haven't seen much momentum for Gould or Erskine (above water, anyway), either.

Although more than one surprise has happened in the this and the previous term of Team Red, so who knows?

 

[Halifax Tar]

JWR weighs in:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1994157027879534768

 

[Czech_pivo]

JWR weighs in:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1994157027879534768

Ouch!

 

[Halifax Tar]

Ouch!

I don't think she's particularly influential anymore. And I really don't think the LPC care what she has to say, just read the comments.

But I think she articulates my observations of this Gov well. And my opinions of our establishment.

 

[Remius]

She’s still got an axe to grind.

 

[Halifax Tar]

She’s still got an axe to grind.

Seems reasonable.

 

[brihard]

I don't think she's particularly influential anymore. And I really don't think the LPC care what she has to say, just read the comments.

But I think she articulates my observations of this Gov well. And my opinions of our establishment.

The other thing too is that cabinet will debate and dissent behind closed doors; they’ll advance points of view, push agendas, disagree with each other and the PM, sometimes get upset and pound on the table… But it rests with the PM to ‘call consensus’ within cabinet, and when the doors open again they come out and sing from the same song sheet, regardless of personal views or which members of cabinet won or lost the policy fight.

JWR of course knows all this.

 

[Halifax Tar]

The other thing too is that cabinet will debate and dissent behind closed doors; they’ll advance points of view, push agendas, disagree with each other and the PM, sometimes get upset and pound on the table… But it rests with the PM to ‘call consensus’ within cabinet, and when the doors open again they come out and sing from the same song sheet, regardless of personal views or which members of cabinet won or lost the policy fight.

JWR of course knows all this.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1994161758148399593

At least he stands by his principals. I can respect that.

 

[brihard]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1994161758148399593

At least he stands by his principals. I can respect that.

I can respect that too. I’m personally happy to see him out of cabinet, and I don’t agree with many of his views and policy positions, but I respect his integrity to his principles. He’s walked away from a $99k a year ministerial salary. That’s a personal cost he’s chosen. (Though I recognize it may have been a case of ‘I’ll accept your resignation from Cabinet’… But I would expect that to leak.)

 

[Czech_pivo]

I can respect that too. I’m personally happy to see him out of cabinet, and I don’t agree with many of his views and policy positions, but I respect his integrity to his principles. He’s walked away from a $99k a year ministerial salary. That’s a personal cost he’s chosen. (Though I recognize it may have been a case of ‘I’ll accept your resignation from Cabinet’… But I would expect that to leak.)

He knew that the writing was on the wall when he got shuffled out to 'Canadian Heritage' and whatever as a CM. In the business world (and politics) this was a movement towards the door, with the expectation that you need to get your house in order because the next step is outside the building looking in. I've known many an executive that woke up one morning to a re-org where they had a new title, an EA, an office, no direct reports and no deliverables or expectations at all - all with the understanding that you have this for 6-12 months and you are expected not to be here when we look for you at the end of that time period.

 

[MilEME09]

Strong third quarter results for the economy with 2.6% growth despite the on going trade war with the US. Even real GDP growth, a metric used heavily to be critical of the canadian economy grew 0.6%.

Canada’s economy rebounds in third quarter with 2.6% growth

The Canadian economy topped expectations with a sharp rebound in the third quarter as a stronger trade balance helped fuel the recovery from a tariff-driven contraction

www.ctvnews.ca

 

[HavokFour]

This is on top of the NDP's existing policy on not accepting floor crossers.

NDP leadership hopefuls say Guilbeault not welcome in their party after quitting cabinet

If now-backbench Liberal MP Steven Guilbeault was looking for sympathy, he won't find it from four of the five candidates for NDP leader.

nationalpost.com

Archive

 

[Altair]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-gdp-q3-2025-9.6995959

The Canadian economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.6 per cent in the third quarter, Statistics Canada said on Friday, avoiding a technical recession largely due to a surge in defence spending.

Government spending on weapons systems, up by 82 per cent in the third quarter, led the surprise growth alongside an uptick in crude oil exports.

2.6 percent from buying weapons systems.

Now imagine if we made fighter jets here.

Just saying.

 

[Cloud Cover]

What weapons systems did they buy that would have triggered such a measure to that extent. The HIMARS cheque has probably not even been written. Something for the RCD perhaps?

 

[MilEME09]

What weapons systems did they buy that would have triggered such a measure to that extent. The HIMARS cheque has probably not even been written. Something for the RCD perhaps?

Himars first payment aint till jan, but quick google the only things I can find is the UAS contract for the halifax's and $250 million for Calian

 

[Altair]

Himars first payment aint till jan, but quick google the only things I can find is the UAS contract for the halifax's and $250 million for Calian

Only 1/5th of the 16b increase in GDP was from government capital spending, so if my math works, 2.5 to 3B in increased spending on weapons systems?

The UAS is worth tens of millions, I think, 250m for calian.

Where did the rest go?

 

[Navy_Pete]

Only 1/5th of the 16b increase in GDP was from government capital spending, so if my math works, 2.5 to 3B in increased spending on weapons systems?

The UAS is worth tens of millions, I think, 250m for calian.

Where did the rest go?

Huge inject into infra and parts, but because of the timing it's hard to say how much will actually spend in the FY. A lot of it was also for the pay and benefits increase. Some of the infra spending would have happened anyway, as there are buildings in the 'fix it or lock it up' stage, but at least it's not being done at the expense of other required infra repairs.

And additionally rolling the CCG, TC airfleet into DND probably needed some admin changes to shift line items that 'increased' the DND budget without actually increasing GoC spend.

 

[Altair]

Huge inject into infra and parts, but because of the timing it's hard to say how much will actually spend in the FY. A lot of it was also for the pay and benefits increase. Some of the infra spending would have happened anyway, as there are buildings in the 'fix it or lock it up' stage, but at least it's not being done at the expense of other required infra repairs.

Doesn't military pay go into operational spending/personnel spending as opposed to capital spending?

And additionally rolling the CCG, TC airfleet into DND probably needed some admin changes to shift line items that 'increased' the DND budget without actually increasing GoC spend.

Seems weird it would be classified as weapon systems.