Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???

[MilEME09]

What does everyone here think about this? Maybe a refueling station or other CFS for the RCN or RCAF might be feasible, but a full base as discussed in the article wouldn't make much sense as it's too far from the arctic and too far from major population centres.

Pierre Polievre wants a Churchill base, but experts debate northern Manitoba town's military capacity​

Would be very difficult to supply as well, roads, rail are not in the best shape, airport would need work to support heavy transports like a C17. Really what strategic value would a full base there even have?

 

[PPCLI Guy]

Would be very difficult to supply as well, roads, rail are not in the best shape, airport would need work to support heavy transports like a C17. Really what strategic value would a full base there even have?

we need to hold ground, and stake out our claim.

 

[MilEME09]

we need to hold ground, and stake out our claim.

And the best place for that is Churchil? Seems to be a status quo location and doesnt actually asset sovereignty any more on the arctic than cold lake does.

We we want presence in the arctic then aim for the territories. White horse or yellow knife for example.

 

[Quirky]

Politician making political promises, nothing else. We’re better off expanding existing locations - Yellowknife, Inuvik, Iqaluit.

 

[PPCLI Guy]

Politician making political promises, nothing else. We’re better off expanding existing locations - Yellowknife, Inuvik, Iqaluit.

Agreed, of course, and I was a part of the analysis of ideal FOB and permanent basing options.

The Churchill option has a few benefits:

• It is indeed political theatre, but at least CPC is finally offering alternates or a least a concept of a plan.
• It has the benefit of being a "fresh announcement", vice the reams of promises and announcement made and remade by the Trudeau government - with very little action
• The signal is as much external (CPC means business wrt Arctic) as internal

I say we give PP the benefit of the doubt on this one, but ask to see the plan.....

 

[brihard]

Agreed, of course, and I was a part of the analysis of ideal FOB and permanent basing options.

The Churchill option has a few benefits:

• It is indeed political theatre, but at least CPC is finally offering alternates or a least a concept of a plan.
• It has the benefit of being a "fresh announcement", vice the reams of promises and announcement made and remade by the Trudeau government - with very little action
• The signal is as much external (CPC means business wrt Arctic) as internal

I say we give PP the benefit of the doubt on this one, but ask to see the plan.....

Asking out of ignorance, is there a realistic use case for an RCN port there?

 

[RangerRay]

Who would want to move there…

Those who want to share their living space with polar bears?

It does have a functional but seasonal port and a bit of a town there though.

Would be very difficult to supply as well, roads, rail are not in the best shape, airport would need work to support heavy transports like a C17. Really what strategic value would a full base there even have?

Just a correction: there is no road to Churchill. Only air and rail which is slower than I can walk.

 

[Good2Golf]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/jenni-byrne-convention-interview-9.7069795

In Harper’s defence, he started out strong, but came under extreme pressure from the very connected business community, particularly the Canada China Business Council, which is basically an influence op of the United Front Work Department.

Harper, being pro business, was easily persuaded to change course.

So Harper tried valiantly to protect Canada, but finally *gave in to the CCBC’s manipulation?

That seems like a dismissive read on Harper’s will. Some believe that Harper was not much different in business proponents than Chretien when it came to working more closely with China….especially when he locked us in with China for the next 1/3 century… (ref: https://canadians.org/analysis/harper-sneaks-through-canada-china-fipa-locks-canada-31-years/ )

Yet they still went all in on '[verb] the [noun]' in 2025, even after Trudeau was out of the picture.

“She said issues including trade diversification, rebuilding the military, resource development and building pipelines are all Conservative ideas that would put Canada in a better bargaining position.”

Former campaign manager says Conservatives should link U.S. relations to cost of living​

Would be interesting to hear details of the CPC’s “trade diversification, rebuilding the military, resource development and building pipelines” media response plan and the be able to contrast that to the LPC’s “trade diversification, rebuilding the military, resource development and building pipelines” we-actually-got-elected plan.

I would be particularly interested in the CPC’s trade diversification part of the plan?

 

[RangerRay]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/jenni-byrne-convention-interview-9.7069795



So Harper tried valiantly to protect Canada, but finally Gabe in to the CCBC’s manipulation?

That seems like a dismissive read on Harper’s will. Some believe that Harper was not much different in business proponents than Chretien when it came to working more closely with China….especially when he locked us in with China for the next 1/3 century… (ref: https://canadians.org/analysis/harper-sneaks-through-canada-china-fipa- Orlocks-canada-31-years/ )

Yes, it would probably be inaccurate to say that he was a poor misguided naïf when he abandoned his initial frostiness to Beijing at the behest of the business lobby. That would be his natural constituency at that time and no doubt took their opinion very seriously. He might have even seen it as a way to politically undermine the Liberals who were hyperventilating over his frostiness to Beijing and were aligned with the business lobby.

After that, the CPC was no different from the LPC. Money talks and in Canada it’s easy to ignore national security if there’s money to be made.

 

[MilEME09]

Those who want to share their living space with polar bears?

It does have a functional but seasonal port and a bit of a town there though.



Just a correction: there is no road to Churchill. Only air and rail which is slower than I can walk.

And already significant investment in that rail line too

'Tremendous progress': Repairs to Churchill rail line helping open new economic activities in Manitoba

2024 is turning into a banner year for economic development in northern Manitoba, with an organization crediting repairs to a Churchill railway for the success.

www.ctvnews.ca

 

[PPCLI Guy]

Asking out of ignorance, is there a realistic use case for an RCN port there?

Any deep water port is an RCN port with the appropriate navy bits and bobs installed etc...said ten Infantry Dude

 

[Halifax Tar]

Any deep water port is an RCN port with the appropriate navy bits and bobs installed etc...said ten Infantry Dude

That how the CAF does business isn't ?

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

And the best place for that is Churchil? Seems to be a status quo location and doesnt actually asset sovereignty any more on the arctic than cold lake does.

We we want presence in the arctic then aim for the territories. White horse or yellow knife for example.

It's called Sea Lines of Communication (SLOC). We need to develop our infrastructure in the North to capitalize on the significant resource wealth.

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

Just one point, Humphrey: You can't go that way for the Arctic Resupply route. The way you show can only go to Iklulik. The passage between that route and Baffin Island is unnavigable, so the Arctic resupply route still has to go around Baffin island. That is the reason why St John's is as good a support base for the Arctic as Churchill would be: there is no distance steamed advantage.

 

[PPCLI Guy]

Just one point, Humphrey: You can't go that way for the Arctic Resupply route. The way you show can only go to Iklulik. The passage between that route and Baffin Island is unnavigable, so the Arctic resupply route still has to go around Baffin island. That is the reason why St John's is as good a support base for the Arctic as Churchill would be: there is no distance steamed advantage.

This is not about manouevre in the maritime domain. It is about the information domain. St.John provides no visible (to Canadians, allies, and adversaries) commitment in the Arctic.....

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

This is not about manouevre in the maritime domain. It is about the information domain. St.John provides no visible (to Canadians, allies, and adversaries) commitment in the Arctic.....

My point was merely that the Arctic resupply route doesn't go the way Humprey's map shows, then pointing out the similarity in distance between posting a ship there or St John's (which is the Coast Guard's main base for the Arctic - with support from Quebec City). I am not saying that we shouldn't use Churchill, nor arguing against the visibility factor.

If this is about the information domain, I'd rather the GoC get on with the Grays Bay road and port project and use that to ressuply and support Arctic operations. Then you can't get bottled up by someone blocking Hudson's Strait.

 

[Czech_pivo]

My point was merely that the Arctic resupply route doesn't go the way Humprey's map shows, then pointing out the similarity in distance between posting a ship there or St John's (which is the Coast Guard's main base for the Arctic - with support from Quebec City). I am not saying that we shouldn't use Churchill, nor arguing against the visibility factor.

If this is about the information domain, I'd rather the GoC get on with the Grays Bay road and port project and use that to ressuply and support Arctic operations. Then you can't get bottled up by someone blocking Hudson's Strait.

It sounds like we have an extremely limited number of options and that not a single one of them seems to be 'head and shoulders' above the rest.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

Just one point, Humphrey: You can't go that way for the Arctic Resupply route. The way you show can only go to Iklulik. The passage between that route and Baffin Island is unnavigable, so the Arctic resupply route still has to go around Baffin island. That is the reason why St John's is as good a support base for the Arctic as Churchill would be: there is no distance steamed advantage.

That's only if you transport cargo/goods via single modal transportation. Any transportation solution in the North will be multimodal in nature.

Churchill is the only Deepwater port in the North with direct rail access. Heavy equipment and machinery can be transported there, transloaded on to ship for disembarkation elsewhere. St John's is on an island and isolated from the rest of Canada, it's objectively a terrible logistics hub.

There is a Deepwater port in Iqaluit that was just constructed:

Iqaluit’s New Deep-Sea Port in the Canadian Arctic - TRID

It's 800 NM to Iqaluit from Churchill. It's 1200 NM from St John's to Iqaluit. Iqaluit is the busiest port in the Arctic and receives the most cargo of any Arctic community in Canada. Supplying Iqaluit from Churchill seems to be a no Brainer.

Churchill also gives a direct route for raw materials from Western Canada to go to European markets.

 

[Czech_pivo]

That's only if you transport cargo/goods via single modal transportation. Any transportation solution in the North will be multimodal in nature.

Churchill is the only Deepwater port in the North with direct rail access. Heavy equipment and machinery can be transported there, transloaded on to ship for disembarkation elsewhere. St John's is on an island and isolated from the rest of Canada, it's objectively a terrible logistics hub.

There is a Deepwater port in Iqaluit that was just constructed:

Iqaluit’s New Deep-Sea Port in the Canadian Arctic - TRID

It's 800 NM to Iqaluit from Churchill. It's 1200 NM from St John's to Iqaluit. Iqaluit is the busiest port in the Arctic and receives the most cargo of any Arctic community in Canada. Supplying Iqaluit from Churchill seems to be a no Brainer.

Churchill also gives a direct route for raw materials from Western Canada to go to European markets.

My only 2 questions would be this;
1) How long is the shipping season from Churchill to Iqaluit without the need for icebreakers?
2) Though 400nm shorter, does a ship from Churchill to Iqaluit run at the same speed as a ship from St John's to Iqaluit? Meaning is the duration the same or less from Churchill to Iqaluit?

 

[The Bread Guy]

Jenni Byrne has somewhat started to read the room, however I hope that the imagined plan isn't to just roll over.

To be fair to Byrne’s strengths, it’s possible she’s been told what the new tack is & is following it. Listening to the new campaign boss on CBC this weekend makes me think they really want more than just snark to come out.

Yet they still went all in on '[verb] the [noun]' in 2025, even after Trudeau was out of the picture.

Former campaign manager says Conservatives should link U.S. relations to cost of living​

Her talking to CBC is already quite a leap - hope she has good dental insurance that covers grating of teeth during interviews. Interesting …