Iran Super Thread- Merged

[CBH99]

back to the fertilizer situation for the bit. Looks like production wise theres no problem in Canada and the US
apparently according to Secretary only 25% of fertilizer production has been secured for the season so back to a pricing issue

View attachment 99145

Is there any way the government could purchase some hefty quantities of fertilizer at today's price + then somehow works with the retailers to sell that same fertilizer to farmers for cost or less??

(Like when they announce "We're setting aside millions to help farmers!" - I don't actually know where that money goes or how it's used. I just assumed it was mostly in the form of tax credits or something like that)




EDIT - The issue of North American farmers having to pay high prices seems like a fairly simple fix if North America can produce it's own in sufficient quantities.

Take care of our own needs first. And THEN sell the excess to foreign markets for whatever the market dictates.

The cost of food would stabilize somewhat, allowing families to do a lot more with their money than keep spending it all at bloody Safeway - and we are going to need some form of structural fix soon because food prices will skyrocket just from the oil issue alone

 

[ytz]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2035503180314763434

Start the clock.

Iranian response:

https://twitter.com/x/status/2035522288091627928

Textbook lesson is escalation dynamics and who has escalation dominance.

 

[HavokFour]

What are you going on about? Just days ago they landed an economically massive hit on Qatar’s natural gas sector. I’m not talking about Iran having some additional, still more potent capabilities it’s been hiding away awaiting this moment. I’m talking about simply more of the same on already known soft economic targets. Refineries, liquefaction plants, loading terminals… None of this requires some hidden super weapon; just Iran deciding “OK, fine, let’s take out three more of Qatar’s LNG production trains.” and firing more of the same.

Since my previous reply, sounds like they’ve promised to do exactly that.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2035522288091627928

I believe Iran retains sufficient ability to make the costs of further strikes on their civil infrastructure economically cost prohibitive. Doesn’t mean Trump won’t do it anyway.

There's more than $1 trillion+ in pleged US investments made by all the countries and more currently being attacked by Iran because of the US/Israel.

We're going to see those start being shrunk or withdrawn as the damage mounts.

EDIT: I forgot the article, from March 5th. We've already seen force majeure used over the last 2 weeks since this article released for oil and gas related contracts.

Gulf states could review overseas investments to ease financial strains caused by Iran war

Three leading Middle East economies consider options as US-Israeli campaign against Tehran continues

www.ft.com

Archive

 

[Cloud Cover]

Sounds like Iran tried to hit Dimona nuclear plant but not surprisingly they missed, and hit the city instead. Serious damage and casualties. The general trend tonight is that their large warhead missiles are getting though at least in Israel and the night is marked by interception failures and misses. At this point it would be quite surprising to see Israel simply walking away from this war.

Edit: and I thought Iran did NOT have nuclear weapons... The author of this post generally seems accurate in his commentary.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2035551641353466230

 

[Brad Sallows]

Trump is now threatening to bomb Iran's power plants. Technically an actual war crime.

Not necessarily; Iran and the US (and Israel) are belligerents and targeting each others' industrial capacity can meet the test of necessity (eg. depending on uses of it). Ukraine and Russia have been doing a lot of it.

When Iran responds by targeting Gulf power plants and desal, I wonder what Trump's response will be.

I wonder what the world's response will be. Definitely (or very close to it) actual war crimes against non-belligerents. Iran is on firm ground attacking US forces and installations, but cannot seriously argue that it has a right to attack civil and private infrastructure as it pleases.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Edit: and I thought Iran did NOT have nuclear weapons... The author of this post generally seems accurate in his commentary.

Might just be referring to the components sans fissionable material (eg. a "bus").

 

[Cloud Cover]

The US bombed the power plants in Serbia in 1999. Although I don't know what they used, because they did disrupt the power for a week or so but caused very little damage to the plants. Graphite bombs maybe.
So is it a war crime then if they do something similar?

 

[Colin Parkinson]

The question is: "How many do they have remaining that they can launch" They may be in a "Use it before we lose it" mode and possibly playing a bluff.

 

[HavokFour]

A familiar face recently made an appearance on Firing Line.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

It also leaves a few thousand Marines horrendously exposed.


Does it though? IRGC can choose not to contest ground on America’s terms, but would likely welcome American troops in range of small drones fired from standoff. Nothing forces Iran to give the Americans a set piece battle along the coast.



I’m estimating that Iran has observed how troops in Ukraine can be killed with FPVs and the video sent out quickly online, and that they recognize how potent this would be against America if they can pull it off. I believe this would serve Russia’s interests too. I estimate Iran has likely acquired ‘good enough’ attack drone capability to make this a reality, and that Russia could and would supply more.

My guess is Trump is going to push to have Marines used and land somewhere, the Islands makes sense. If the Marine adopt in and out raids rather than hold, then yes the Iranians need to man some defenses near any of their remaining facilities.
Listening to the Ukrainians, it takes awhile to train up drone operators and get used to the limitations of fibreoptic FPV drones. It's likley the Iranian operators are not as proficient as the Russian and Ukrainians and the number of drones it takes to get those videos is high even for very experienced operators. On the down side the Marines are not used to fighting in a drone environment either, but will have air cover.

 

[Furniture]

View attachment 99151

The question is: "How many do they have remaining that they can launch" They may be in a "Use it before we lose it" mode and possibly playing a bluff.

Iran is winning. They hold all the cards right now. Just ask the people who declared an Iranian victory on day three...

 

[Czech_pivo]

My guess is Trump is going to push to have Marines used and land somewhere, the Islands makes sense. If the Marine adopt in and out raids rather than hold, then yes the Iranians need to man some defenses near any of their remaining facilities.
Listening to the Ukrainians, it takes awhile to train up drone operators and get used to the limitations of fibreoptic FPV drones. It's likley the Iranian operators are not as proficient as the Russian and Ukrainians and the number of drones it takes to get those videos is high even for very experienced operators. On the down side the Marines are not used to fighting in a drone environment either, but will have air cover.

You are making the assumption that no Iranians went to Russia and learned first hand how to use these drones over the last 2+ yrs.

 

[ytz]

The US bombed the power plants in Serbia in 1999. Although I don't know what they used, because they did disrupt the power for a week or so but caused very little damage to the plants. Graphite bombs maybe.
So is it a war crime then if they do something similar?

Not a war crime if the power plants are substantially servicing military infrastructure and installations. But that doesn't seem to be what Trump is threatening here.

I wonder what the world's response will be. Definitely (or very close to it) actual war crimes against non-belligerents. Iran is on firm ground attacking US forces and installations, but cannot seriously argue that it has a right to attack civil and private infrastructure as it pleases.

Given that the majority of the world and the majority of the region didn't want this war, there's a high likelihood they will see the escalating belligerent (the one bombing power plants) as the problem.

Still not understanding the culture of the region or escalation dynamics in your rush to ride the D.

 

[Eaglelord17]

Ah, as usual you are right good sir. I stand corrected.

So replace Italy & France with Poland & Romania (and Germany)

....


It's VERY rare that US Marines get to do the traditional 'marine stuff' for real - like forcefully take an island from the enemy and/or do contested beach landings...

These kids must be excited for what may happen in short order here!



Same goes for modern day paratroopers.

Other than the 75th Ranger Regiment doing a 'combat jump onto an airfield' in Afghanistan, how often do paratroopers get to jump on real world operations as a formation?

Prior to the Afghan jump, I think it was WW2

France did a jump in 2015 in Mali. They also did the largest jump since WWII in 1953 Vietnam.

There is a reason those skills don’t get done much in the real world though, because they have exceptionally high risk for generally very little reward. Look at the Russian attempts to secure airfields in the invasion of Ukraine, a ton of their best troops dead for nothing.

Taking a island is a huge undertaking. Based off how poorly planned this war was from the get go, I wouldn’t want to send any of my troops into that hornets nest without good cause. Just doing it ‘because’ gets troops killed for nothing.

 

[ytz]

Iran is winning. They hold all the cards right now. Just ask the people who declared an Iranian victory on day three...

Strategic vs. Tactical level

Tactically? They are absolutely getting their asses handed to them.

Strategically? Pretty obvious they are winning.

We have our own experience with this kind of asymmetry. How did regime change go in Afghanistan after dominating every major engagement with the Taliban?

Trump is running out of time here. The global economy and the Gulf States can't take much more of this. At some point, they will cut a deal irrespective of what Trump wants.

Part of the problem that he has is that his escalation ladder is rather short. He can't threaten the one thing that would almost guarantee regime change: boots on the ground.

So the regime knows it just has to survive, keep the Strait closed until the Gulf States cry uncle and force Trump to quit. Probably by pulling their trillions in investments from the US. Or worse, they get China to broker a peace agreement and start pricing their sales in Yuan.

Again I ask. Think of what you do in the shoes of the regime or the Gulf States.

 

[ytz]

France did a jump in 2015 in Mali. They also did the largest jump since WWII in 1953 Vietnam.

There is a reason those skills don’t get done much in the real world though, because they have exceptionally high risk for generally very little reward. Look at the Russian attempts to secure airfields in the invasion of Ukraine, a ton of their best troops dead for nothing.

Taking a island is a huge undertaking. Based off how poorly planned this war was from the get go, I wouldn’t want to send any of my troops into that hornets nest without good cause. Just doing it ‘because’ gets troops killed for nothing.

They can take most of the small islands except Kharg pretty easily. Possibly even zero losses. But that doesn't open the Strait. Or stop the IRGC (I hate saying Iran.... Slanders the people) from attacking Gulf infrastructure. It doesn't even help move along regime change in any time scale that matters to anybody.

I'm really hoping that a lot of folks here shooting from the hip were never higher than MCpl or Captain. Cause so many of these ideas violate some pretty basic military principles. Or maybe I should not be surprised that so many people can't think beyond first order effects.

 

[ytz]

Lol. Iranians are offering the Europeans help on keeping Trump out of Greenland:

https://www.reddit.com/r/PublicFreakout/s/qdlh3jB9tD

 

[Baz]

Would an attack on Iranian power plants as Trump described be a war crime?

My opinion is yes. Attacks a civilian infrastructure are expressly prohibited, with an explicit mention of energy systems. A caveat is provided that if the infrastructure is being used for military purposes than it is allowed to be attacked, as long as the attack is proportional.

Would a counter attack of a similar nature by Iran then be a war crime? My opinion is yes, as there are no exemptions for retaliation.

Have the attacks conducted so far on gas infrastructure and shipping been war crimes? Again, my opinion is yes.

Regardless of how we got here, should the international community act to protect shipping if it is in fact a war crime? Yes.

Should Iran’s actions, given they had no other means to respond, have been expected? Yes.

As a point of reference, I was a targeting staff officer at SHAPE, and have the NATO Staff Targetting and Collateral Damage Estimation courses. I considered posting references, but can’t be bothered.

 

[Baz]

As a thought bubble, would a decapiitation strike on the US Government by Iran (if they had the means) be legal, and not an act of terrorism? I think so, but could be convinced otherwise.

Would civilian casualties conducting that strike be legal? Yes, as long as they were proportional to the military gain.

I think that this conflict is in very dangerous waters, and I’m not sure that The US Admin has the sole power to stop it.

 

[Cloud Cover]

Time and time again, war after war, decade after decade the LOAC are not applied evenly, and seldom applied at all relative to the rate of incidence. They certainly won’t be applied against any of the principal belligerents in this conflict.