All Things AB Separatism (split fm Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???)

[QV]

Right - major problem to overcome just like it would have been for Quebec.... Hold the vote, like Quebec.

 

[brihard]

So, to be clear - because you can easily find it in my post history here - my own personal feelings are absolutely on the side of ‘hold the stupid vote’. The separatists will lose decisively and at least their piss-baby tantrums will switch to a new phase while the grown ups get to continue taking care of business.

But, my personal feelings of impatience, and yours, and Halifax Tar’s don’t mean that any group of people with a grievance get to force through a legal process that tramples on the very long established rights of Canada’s indigenous peoples. That’s just reality, and thinks that we’re done sloppily and unilaterally in the pst don’t override that.

Let the secessionists show they can be taken seriously by forming provincial government on a platform of secession and at least earning a democratic mandate to enter into earnest and meaningful discussions on the matter. Quebec was able to at least achieve that, even if their secessionists’ loss in two referenda prevented them having to then confront the legal hash they would have tried to make of things following a hypothetical ‘yes’ vote.

Secession is a negotiation between governments, not an ultimatum by a bunch of Twitter users. Let them demonstrate that they can win and keep the confidence of their provincial legislature by getting the support of voters and forming government with an overt secessionist platform, and then go from there. If they can’t even get voted in to run the province, they can frig off.

 

[MilEME09]

Also, the Forever Canada is a moot vote. Either result in that vote triggers nothing. And its purpose was to nullify the separatists path, to set them back years or stymie their intentions.

The whole point of this referendum is that if it goes one way, a series of future actions are then triggered. Forever Canada is designed to cease or delay that regardless of vote outcome.

Not really, because it forces the current UCP government ti get off the fence and pick a side. If forever canada passes then they need to stop pandering to seperatists.

 

[QV]

Not really, because it forces the current UCP government ti get off the fence and pick a side. If forever canada passes then they need to stop pandering to seperatists.

Really.

My estimate: The UCP are going to sit this one out until after the referendum (on leaving), for now they will fence sit like they've been doing.

If the 'leave' votes wins you will see the UCP pivot to be the Parti Albertois and will aggressively advance the next phases to follow.

If the "leave" vote loses, status quo, the issue loses some steam and goes away for a little while. The UCP will not risk becoming openly separatist without a clear referendum win on 'Leave' for fear of splitting the party, and risk the NDP to run up the middle again next election.

This is why you will see a referendum on leaving not on staying - follow on options remain open.

 

[brihard]

Really.

My estimate: The UCP are going to sit this one out until after the referendum (on leaving), for now they will fence sit like they've been doing.

If the 'leave' votes wins you will see the UCP pivot to be the Parti Albertois and will aggressively advance the next phases to follow.

If the "leave" vote loses, status quo, the issue loses some steam and goes away for a little while. The UCP will not risk becoming openly separatist without a clear referendum win on 'Leave' for fear of splitting the party, and risk the NDP to run up the middle again next election.

This is why you will see a referendum on leaving not on staying - follow on options remain open.

Except that this pretends the Forever Canadian petition doesn’t exist. They succeeded; they crossed the threshold and the matter has been legally referred to the legislature. Smith is slow-rolling it with referral to a nearly dormant committee… But eventually they will be forced to either place it on the referendum ballot, or to force the legislature to vote on the matter and show their true colours.

Alberta voters should be profoundly disappointed in a provincial government unwilling to unequivocally say where they stand on a matter as fundamental as secession from Canada. It’s cowardly.

 

[MilEME09]

Oh this just got worse for the UCP

Alberta NDP claims 2 UCP members attended virtual Centurion Project meeting, party president and caucus director attended training session.

Alberta NDP claims 2 UCP members attended virtual Centurion Project meeting

Alberta’s New Democrats say they have obtained evidence of two United Conservative Party members attending an online Centurion Project meeting on April 16.

www.ctvnews.ca

 

[QV]

Except that this pretends the Forever Canadian petition doesn’t exist. They succeeded; they crossed the threshold and the matter has been legally referred to the legislature. Smith is slow-rolling it with referral to a nearly dormant committee… But eventually they will be forced to either place it on the referendum ballot, or to force the legislature to vote on the matter and show their true colours.

Alberta voters should be profoundly disappointed in a provincial government unwilling to unequivocally say where they stand on a matter as fundamental as secession from Canada. It’s cowardly.

Its politics.

The UCP can ignore Forever Canada, citizen petitions do not compel anything. Cabinet can decline to proceed. It is certainly politically risky.

More likely both questions are on the ballot.

 

[MilEME09]

Jason Kenny consulting legal advice after his data used publicly for training

https://twitter.com/x/status/2051789277818921367

 

[HavokFour]

Oh this just got worse for the UCP

Alberta NDP claims 2 UCP members attended virtual Centurion Project meeting, party president and caucus director attended training session.

Alberta NDP claims 2 UCP members attended virtual Centurion Project meeting

Alberta’s New Democrats say they have obtained evidence of two United Conservative Party members attending an online Centurion Project meeting on April 16.

www.ctvnews.ca

That's an incredibly weak excuse from the UCP. Especially if the NDP has a recording of the whole thing.

 

[brihard]

Its politics.

The UCP can ignore Forever Canada, citizen petitions do not compel anything. Cabinet can decline to proceed. It is certainly politically risky.

More likely both questions are on the ballot.

It was a formal and legal citizens’ initiative under the old version of the statute. It literally does compel next steps. That’s how that law works.

Jason Kenny consulting legal advice after his data used publicly for training

https://twitter.com/x/status/2051789277818921367

Whoops. We may need to merge this into the FAFO thread.

 

[Altair]

I spent a lot of time trying to make my opinion known that these separatists from temu are acting like a disorganized joke, and it's a little sad that they are doing they are doing it for me these days.

 

[dapaterson]

I spent a lot of time trying to make my opinion known that these separatists from temu are a joke, and it's a little sad that they are doing they are doing it for me these days.

Separatists from Temu would be a great name for a Franco Albertan ska punk band.

 

[Altair]

Separatists from Temu would be a great name for a Franco Albertan ska punk band.

We should talk it into existance.

 

[dapaterson]

We should talk it into existance.

Plus there needs to be a Quebec provincial political party called The Friends of Rocky Leja.

 

[lenaitch]

How was it squared for Quebec twice?

It wasn't. I clearly recall FN objection to any thought of Quebec separating, and lots of references online referencing their position. Basically, 'hells no - you can take your part but we're keeping ours.

Quebec didn't have public petitions to backstop their referendums; the government just did it.

 

[Infanteer]

As a point of historical interest, Quebec is also not covered by any of the historical numbered treaties. Alberta has territory covered by treaties 4, 6, 7, 8, and 10. The first four of those were signed between the crown and First Nations before Alberta even existed as a province.

Not numbered treaties, but there are historical treaties in the SLV pre-dating Confederation.

 

[brihard]

Not numbered treaties, but there are historical treaties in the SLV pre-dating Confederation.

Yup. As I said, any hypothetical Quebec secession would be similarly complicated, even if differing in the details.

 

[RangerRay]

Yes, but…

Even simply holding the vote brings major legal and political issues with First Nations who literally existed and had a treaty relationship with the crown before the province. In a nutshell it boils down to what right do others in the province have to attempt to impose a change on that treaty relationship and the way the First Nations are currently legally situated in Canada? If the First Nations acquiesce to a vote even being held, then they’re tacitly surrendering that very, very legally huge point.

I think there’s years of court challenges in any path here on the “should Alberta separate?” question.

I maintain that the easiest ‘good enough for now’ answer is to run a referendum in the Forever Canadian petition which simply asks if people want to stay in Canada. A loss would not compel a secession effort; it’s basically a referendum opinion poll on the sentiment of the population. However, a succesful “yes we should stay Canadian” result would offer comfort to people and to business that however the legalities around the secession petition and referendum eventually play out, they will not ultimately win or be leaving Canada, and things can carry on as normal.

Suck all the wind out of their sails without having to fully adjudicate the building of the boat.

No to mention the corporate and Anglo flight that two failed referenda caused.

 

[RangerRay]

Yup. As I said, any hypothetical Quebec secession would be similarly complicated, even if differing in the details.

The only difference being Quebec/Lower Canada was sovereign prior to Confederation. Alberta was carved out of territories belonging to Canada.

 

[brihard]

No to mention the corporate and Anglo flight that two failed referenda caused.

I didn’t bring that up in this reply because it’s distinct from the point of principle I was speaking about- but absolutely, the unpredictability of referendum and secession talk is chilling to investment capital. Quebec really screwed itself with its referenda, and ven though the needle ultimately landed on ‘stay’. While Alberta doesn’t share the distinct language issues, businesses definitely want the certainty of knowing what sort of legal system they’ll exist under. Tough to promise when building (and funding!) a new sovereign state.