All Things AB Separatism (split fm Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???)

[QV]

Right - major problem to overcome just like it would have been for Quebec.... Hold the vote, like Quebec.

 

[brihard]

So, to be clear - because you can easily find it in my post history here - my own personal feelings are absolutely on the side of ‘hold the stupid vote’. The separatists will lose decisively and at least their piss-baby tantrums will switch to a new phase while the grown ups get to continue taking care of business.

But, my personal feelings of impatience, and yours, and Halifax Tar’s don’t mean that any group of people with a grievance get to force through a legal process that tramples on the very long established rights of Canada’s indigenous peoples. That’s just reality, and thinks that we’re done sloppily and unilaterally in the pst don’t override that.

Let the secessionists show they can be taken seriously by forming provincial government on a platform of secession and at least earning a democratic mandate to enter into earnest and meaningful discussions on the matter. Quebec was able to at least achieve that, even if their secessionists’ loss in two referenda prevented them having to then confront the legal hash they would have tried to make of things following a hypothetical ‘yes’ vote.

Secession is a negotiation between governments, not an ultimatum by a bunch of Twitter users. Let them demonstrate that they can win and keep the confidence of their provincial legislature by getting the support of voters and forming government with an overt secessionist platform, and then go from there. If they can’t even get voted in to run the province, they can frig off.

 

[MilEME09]

Also, the Forever Canada is a moot vote. Either result in that vote triggers nothing. And its purpose was to nullify the separatists path, to set them back years or stymie their intentions.

The whole point of this referendum is that if it goes one way, a series of future actions are then triggered. Forever Canada is designed to cease or delay that regardless of vote outcome.

Not really, because it forces the current UCP government ti get off the fence and pick a side. If forever canada passes then they need to stop pandering to seperatists.

 

[QV]

Not really, because it forces the current UCP government ti get off the fence and pick a side. If forever canada passes then they need to stop pandering to seperatists.

Really.

My estimate: The UCP are going to sit this one out until after the referendum (on leaving), for now they will fence sit like they've been doing.

If the 'leave' votes wins you will see the UCP pivot to be the Parti Albertois and will aggressively advance the next phases to follow.

If the "leave" vote loses, status quo, the issue loses some steam and goes away for a little while. The UCP will not risk becoming openly separatist without a clear referendum win on 'Leave' for fear of splitting the party, and risk the NDP to run up the middle again next election.

This is why you will see a referendum on leaving not on staying - follow on options remain open.

 

[brihard]

Really.

My estimate: The UCP are going to sit this one out until after the referendum (on leaving), for now they will fence sit like they've been doing.

If the 'leave' votes wins you will see the UCP pivot to be the Parti Albertois and will aggressively advance the next phases to follow.

If the "leave" vote loses, status quo, the issue loses some steam and goes away for a little while. The UCP will not risk becoming openly separatist without a clear referendum win on 'Leave' for fear of splitting the party, and risk the NDP to run up the middle again next election.

This is why you will see a referendum on leaving not on staying - follow on options remain open.

Except that this pretends the Forever Canadian petition doesn’t exist. They succeeded; they crossed the threshold and the matter has been legally referred to the legislature. Smith is slow-rolling it with referral to a nearly dormant committee… But eventually they will be forced to either place it on the referendum ballot, or to force the legislature to vote on the matter and show their true colours.

Alberta voters should be profoundly disappointed in a provincial government unwilling to unequivocally say where they stand on a matter as fundamental as secession from Canada. It’s cowardly.

 

[MilEME09]

Oh this just got worse for the UCP

Alberta NDP claims 2 UCP members attended virtual Centurion Project meeting, party president and caucus director attended training session.

Alberta NDP claims 2 UCP members attended virtual Centurion Project meeting

Alberta’s New Democrats say they have obtained evidence of two United Conservative Party members attending an online Centurion Project meeting on April 16.

www.ctvnews.ca

 

[QV]

Except that this pretends the Forever Canadian petition doesn’t exist. They succeeded; they crossed the threshold and the matter has been legally referred to the legislature. Smith is slow-rolling it with referral to a nearly dormant committee… But eventually they will be forced to either place it on the referendum ballot, or to force the legislature to vote on the matter and show their true colours.

Alberta voters should be profoundly disappointed in a provincial government unwilling to unequivocally say where they stand on a matter as fundamental as secession from Canada. It’s cowardly.

Its politics.

The UCP can ignore Forever Canada, citizen petitions do not compel anything. Cabinet can decline to proceed. It is certainly politically risky.

More likely both questions are on the ballot.

 

[MilEME09]

Jason Kenny consulting legal advice after his data used publicly for training

https://twitter.com/x/status/2051789277818921367