Canada moves to 2% GDP end of FY25/26 - PMMC

[Czech_pivo]

I suspect our relationship with China is more tainted, given the electoral issues, Winnipeg lab, etc.

Like I've said, its not a bed of roses with the US and the Chinese either.

A California mayor pleaded guilty to acting as an agent for China. Foreign policy experts aren’t surprised

Eileen Wang, 58, worked with China to promote Beijing’s interests and could face up to 10 years in federal prison

www.theguardian.com

A California mayor pleaded guilty to acting as an agent for China. Foreign policy experts aren’t surprised​

The Chinese agents accused of spying on expats in US

Experts say two espionage cases in the US highlight China's attempts to peddle influence globally over the past decade.

www.bbc.com

Secret police and propaganda: The Chinese agents spying on expats in US​

 

[Kirkhill]

If this was last year sure, but the last several months we have been putting money where our mouth is, so the timing of these comments is odd for sure. One look at DLRs sharepoint and we can see a lot of projects happening now, and expensive ones at that. Starting next year, there will be major renewal in the CAF.

No. We haven't. We have continued to write promissory notes for delivery after Trump, and Vance/Rubio, leave office in the 2030s.

Other countries are building stuff, buying stuff, trying stuff. We are setting the conditions for eventually doing stuff.

We are moving at Canada's usual glacial pace. That pace is beloved of our bureaucrats and politicians because it allows them to believe "it will never happen" and they can continue with life as usual.

We are trying to get a 1,000,000 barrel a day pipeline to tidewater, 1200 km or so, by 2033, give or take. Presumably Ottawa is hoping both Smith and Eby will be gone, along with Trump and Carney.

Meanwhile AbuDhabi's CONDA initiated a 4 million barrel a day, 340 km, pipeline to bypass Hormuz, in late 2024. They expect to start punping in 2027. 2 to 3 years.

The same rationale goes into ships and planes. If they stretch it out long enough the demand signal will pass.

Chretien signed on to the F35 in 1997. 30 years ago. When Fly By Wire, which both permitted unstable designs to fly and made drones more practical, was in its infancy.

Our bureaucrats are masters of the dawdle.

 

[Kirkhill]

We've already been stabbed in the back and in the front. How many more knives would be appropriate?

I am fully supportive of a greatly expanded CAF, I've never had any beef with that or concerns about it. I do believe in the mantra, 'Freedom isn't free.'

I'm all in on a CAF with north of 90+k for FT and another 50+k in PT members. If all of Trump's continued blathering results in this, great, tell him to keep flapping this gums.

Do you understand the difference bretween a goad and a knife? Both inflict injury. The goad isn't life threatening.

 

[Kirkhill]

Your comments are noted. We are worrying too much, perhaps, on keeping our current members of the NSS occupied. As things stand, that really shouldn't be a problem nor does it require bringing another shipyard into the group although we do need that other yard. Consider, if we tell Irving to start building another type it they will have to expand drastically to achieve it; even if they are simply welding modules together. Once we get caught up on needs their output will be reduced to replacement/maintenance only which will reduce employment and start mothballing skills again. Better perhaps to identify what is wanted and go to VARD/Ontario Shipyards and say build me a fleet of these ASAP and no, you are not part of the NSS this is a one and done contract. Eventually we should be able to start a parallel build in Halifax but only after a couple of destroyers have been delivered.

We could demonstrate willing by making the ships we have ready for sea. By filling magazines. Buying missiles. Buying new technologies at scale and giving them a try.

These are the things our allies are doing. In the here and now.

 

[McG]

First of all, and this will annoy the Elbows Uppers to no end …

If you need to start your post with a condescending swipe any person who may come to disagree with you, you maybe need to find a happy place and look after whatever is haunting you.

 

[QV]

If you need to start your post with a condescending swipe any person who may come to disagree with you, you maybe need to find a happy place and look after whatever is haunting you.

I think HT was quoting the article. You should try reading shared articles before jumping to "butt hurt". More often than not, the information shared is relevant to one or anothers' position.

 

[CBH99]

If you need to start your post with a condescending swipe any person who may come to disagree with you, you maybe need to find a happy place and look after whatever is haunting you.

How can he be in a happy place AND be looking after a bunch of ghosts of Elbow Uppers at the same time??

 

[Czech_pivo]

We are trying to get a 1,000,000 barrel a day pipeline to tidewater, 1200 km or so, by 2033, give or take. Presumably Ottawa is hoping both Smith and Eby will be gone, along with Trump and Carney.

Meanwhile AbuDhabi's CONDA initiated a 4 million barrel a day, 340 km, pipeline to bypass Hormuz, in late 2024. They expect to start punping in 2027. 2 to 3 years.

The pipeline that I believe you are referring to is the 'West-East 1' and its following an existing pipeline that has been around since 2012 and was built entirely by the Chinese. That pipeline ships around 1.5m barrels a day. The new West-East 1 pipeline would double that capacity (so roughly 3m barrels a day). With it running parallel to the existing pipeline, I'm going to make the assumption that a far amount of the heavy lifting/engineering has already been completed, thus the 3yr timeline. Also, for reference the existing pipeline began in 2008 and completed in 2012, 4yrs. So, it looks as though they are able to shave 1yr off the timeline of the new pipeline running parallel to the existing one.

Habshan–Fujairah oil pipeline - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Halifax Tar]

If you need to start your post with a condescending swipe any person who may come to disagree with you, you maybe need to find a happy place and look after whatever is haunting you.

That's a quote from the article. Not my words.

 

[Halifax Tar]

How can he be in a happy place AND be looking after a bunch of ghosts of Elbow Uppers at the same time??

Again, not my words. Quotes from the article.

 

[Halifax Tar]

And this isn't the only case. I know another one is coming for a whole different scale of issue. One I'm involved in.

I'm sure on some spreadsheet we've hit 2% but I'm not seeing a difference....

https://twitter.com/x/status/2057391838525288540

 

[Czech_pivo]

And this isn't the only case. I know another one is coming for a whole different scale of issue. One I'm involved in.

I'm sure on some spreadsheet we've hit 2% but I'm not seeing a difference....

https://twitter.com/x/status/2057391838525288540

Brutal.

 

[MJP]

And this isn't the only case. I know another one is coming for a whole different scale of issue. One I'm involved in.

I'm sure on some spreadsheet we've hit 2% but I'm not seeing a difference....

https://twitter.com/x/status/2057391838525288540

The messaging was lost in this one. The NCR return is specifically aimed at getting folks who are not entitled to kit to return it.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Brutal.

Different commodities in my world but this would mirror my observation/experience as well.

“There are currently challenges with stock levels of rucksacks, patrol packs, tactical vests and fragmentation vests in some sizes due to higher consumption,” departmental spokesperson Andrée-Anne Poulin said in an e-mailed statement.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Different commodities in my world but this would mirror my observation/experience as well.

So the knock on effect of greater enrollment numbers hasn't trickled down to greater expenditures on the kit needed to ensure adequate stores are available.

 

[Halifax Tar]

So the knock on effect of greater enrollment numbers hasn't trickled down to greater expenditures on the kit needed to ensure adequate stores are available.

Could be. I also think our LCMM/SM positions are understaffed, underqualified and over tasked; and our procurement process is ridiculously burdensome. And when we do actually buy things we never buy enough.

Filling warehouses isn't sexy and no one makes movies or posters about it. I think this is factor too.

Ill say it again and from the mountain tops, I want warehouses full of kit and parts sitting there just in case.

 

[Kirkhill]

More of this, please....

Strengthening Canada's defence sector is a 'once-in-a-generation opportunity' to invest, CIBC head says

Ottawa's defence sector investment push is one of the most significant financing initiatives in Canada's history, says head of CIBC. Read on

financialpost.com

“Let me be clear: we recognize the urgency of this moment,” Harry Culham said at a CIBC defence summit on Wednesday. “This presents a once-in-a-generation opportunity to invest in our economy.”

He also said investments would extend beyond the traditional forms of defence.

“They include dual-use infrastructure — airports, seaports, energy and critical roads connecting our North — as well as advancements in cybersecurity, digital solutions and artificial intelligence,” he said.

....

So long as it is recognized that the 5% target means 2% in sustaining the status quo baseline, 1.5% is devoted to this dual use economy but that the other 1.5% actually gets spent on hard military capabilities to bring the 2% up to 3.5%.

....

Current defence budget, at 2% of GDP, is 62BCAD
1.5% on the dual use economy is about 45 BCAD per year
1.5% on hard military enhancements is another 45 BCAD

10 years of investment at that rate would mean
1070 BCAD invested in the Military
450 BCAD invested in the dual use economy.

1.52 Trillion Canadian Dollars.

If 70% of that is invested in Canada, or 1 Trillion Canadian
That still leaves 500 BCAD to be invested in foreign systems and aid to allies.

Trump asked for 60 BUSD for our portion of the revised continental IAMD system or about 6 BUSD a year for 10 years. At current rates that would be about 100 BCAD total or 10 BCAD annually.

About 10% of the total military expenditure.

We can reduce that by increasing the value of the Canadian dollar from 1.4 CAD to the USD back to par as under Stephen Harper.

 

[KevinB]

The messaging was lost in this one. The NCR return is specifically aimed at getting folks who are not entitled to kit to return it.

One may be forgiven for assuming that any CAF personnel should be entitled to what is really basic kit.

 

[Kirkhill]

More of this, please....

Strengthening Canada's defence sector is a 'once-in-a-generation opportunity' to invest, CIBC head says

Ottawa's defence sector investment push is one of the most significant financing initiatives in Canada's history, says head of CIBC. Read on

financialpost.com

“Let me be clear: we recognize the urgency of this moment,” Harry Culham said at a CIBC defence summit on Wednesday. “This presents a once-in-a-generation opportunity to invest in our economy.”

He also said investments would extend beyond the traditional forms of defence.

“They include dual-use infrastructure — airports, seaports, energy and critical roads connecting our North — as well as advancements in cybersecurity, digital solutions and artificial intelligence,” he said.

....

So long as it is recognized that the 5% target means 2% in sustaining the status quo baseline, 1.5% is devoted to this dual use economy but that the other 1.5% actually gets spent on hard military capabilities to bring the 2% up to 3.5%.

....

Current defence budget, at 2% of GDP, is 62BCAD
1.5% on the dual use economy is about 45 BCAD per year
1.5% on hard military enhancements is another 45 BCAD

10 years of investment at that rate would mean
1070 BCAD invested in the Military
450 BCAD invested in the dual use economy.

1.52 Trillion Canadian Dollars.

If 70% of that is invested in Canada, or 1 Trillion Canadian
That still leaves 500 BCAD to be invested in foreign systems and aid to allies.

Trump asked for 60 BUSD for our portion of the revised continental IAMD system or about 6 BUSD a year for 10 years. At current rates that would be about 100 BCAD total or 10 BCAD annually.

About 10% of the total military expenditure.

We can reduce that by increasing the value of the Canadian dollar from 1.4 CAD to the USD back to par as under Stephen Harper.

Further to...

The combined Canadian GDP over the next 10 years is expected to be in the 35 to 40 Trillion Canadian dollar range.

On the higher side if we are pumping gas.

 

[Underway]

One may be forgiven for assuming that any CAF personnel should be entitled to what is really basic kit.

Rucksack? Are you kidding me? Lol. I returned all that stuff as soon as I could when I got back from my Army tour. But the criticism is valid. This is the main area where we can really put the boots to a problem (pun intended) as its obvious and likely some low hanging fruit. With due respect to @Halifax Tar I have seen some immediate supply issues resolved very quickly recently, though I'm still short of issue one pair of my sea boots.