Iran Super Thread- Merged

[Altair]

One doesn’t need to invade Iran to weaken the regime.
This sort of thing is SOF and IC folks bread and butter. UW and targeted killings on a reverse COIN approach. Start on the fringes and grow a revolution.

If not now when?

3 months in.

Yeah, forget about it.

 

[daftandbarmy]

One doesn’t need to invade Iran to weaken the regime.
This sort of thing is SOF and IC folks bread and butter. UW and targeted killings on a reverse COIN approach. Start on the fringes and grow a revolution.

But that won't 'git 'er dun' before the next round of midterm elections...

 

[QV]

If not now when?

3 months in.

Yeah, forget about it.

The Berlin Wall fell in 1989.... the USSR didn't formally cease to exist until late 1991.

Assad in Syria looked permanent until he suddenly wasn't.

Specific events can demonstrate that a regime is either not invincible or mortally wounded - such as the ass whooping Israel and USA inflicted on Iran.... Institutional collapse can come later like in the above two examples. It's during the later part where different pressures are also added.

 

[HavokFour]

Confirmed a few things himself.

Trump confirms he called Netanyahu crazy in phone call

U.S. President Donald Trump acknowledged having called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu crazy in an expletive-filled phone exchange over fighting in Lebanon, while the U.S. was trying to negotiate an end to hostilities with Iran.

www.reuters.com

 

[KevinB]

If not now when?

3 months in.

Yeah, forget about it.

Oh believe me, I think this whole debacle stinks -- I am just offering a possible COA, one that is a lot more deniable, and one that ideally would not see a lot of Gulf targets hit by Iran.

 

[KevinB]

Confirmed a few things himself.

Trump confirms he called Netanyahu crazy in phone call

U.S. President Donald Trump acknowledged having called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu crazy in an expletive-filled phone exchange over fighting in Lebanon, while the U.S. was trying to negotiate an end to hostilities with Iran.

www.reuters.com

Did Benny return with "Pot this is Kettle you are black too"?

 

[Altair]

Oh believe me, I think this whole debacle stinks -- I am just offering a possible COA, one that is a lot more deniable, and one that ideally would not see a lot of Gulf targets hit by Iran.

If there is a rebellion... if people take up arms, when better than now to strike the IRGC as they fight the rebels? Or to shoot down any remaining air assets Iran May own? Or to tolerate a closure of the strait of Hormuz? It's already closed, nothing to lose. A closure in the future will be all the more painful.

A rebellion 2 years, 3 years from now is doomed.

So if not now, when?

Let's not forget, and I know he has said a lot between day one and day now, but the moment of your liberation has arrived were the words spoken.

So all this talk, Iran is on the brink, Iran facing uprisings, Iran that will overthrow the Ayatollahs and IRGC, it's bull.

Iran is proving more resilient than ever, and Israel and the USA is giving it that legitimacy.

What a waste.

 

[KevinB]

If there is a rebellion... if people take up arms, when better than now to strike the IRGC as they fight the rebels? Or to shoot down any remaining air assets Iran May own? Or to tolerate a closure of the strait of Hormuz? It's already closed, nothing to lose. A closure in the future will be all the more painful.

A rebellion 2 years, 3 years from now is doomed.

So if not now, when?

Let's not forget, and I know he has said a lot between day one and day now, but the moment of your liberation has arrived were the words spoken.

So all this talk, Iran is on the brink, Iran facing uprisings, Iran that will overthrow the the Ayatollahs and IRGC, it's bull.

Iran is proving more resilient than ever, and Israel and the USA is giving it that legitimacy.

What a waste.

No disagreement here.

All I see in Iran is pain -- regardless of what COA is chosen -- I think it is better to take the pain now.
Unfortunately the US/Israel original COA has left any good options to be unpleasant and a lot more painful than they could have been several months ago.

 

[Czech_pivo]

So.....is the US back at war again? Or is it all good in da hood?

https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/02/world/live-news/iran-trump-israel-lebanon-war-intl-hnk

Kuwait’s airport attacked as fresh Iran-US strikes strain ceasefire​

 

[Furniture]

They are actively being prevented from exporting oil, their leadership was decapitated, if not now when?

They are being attacked by the great Satan, and Israel... Decades/centuries of hatred aren't wiped away because you dislike the bosses.

There is a reason dictatorships use war to shore-up support when they are weak. There was potential that cutting off the head would topple the regime, and it didn't happen. That doesn't mean that when the inevitable peace happens the public will still tolerate them. As @KevinB and others have pointed out, the problems that existed before haven't magically gone away because the economy has been shut down, and all their stuff has been blown-up.

Am i supposed to believe that when Iran is actively making money, and the IRGC is more entrenched that somehow that's when they will topple?

Is Iran making more than they did before the war? No. Is their economy functioning? Not really... Again, all the problem s they had before are still there, and when the unity caused by an outside enemy fades, things aren't going to be rosy for leadership.

The IRGC is in power, until someone inside decides they can do better for themself by changing things up, or the people get tired of their bootheel. Whether that's tomorrow, or two years from now, the current war is weakening the system currently in place.

 

[HavokFour]

Surprise.

On Wednesday, it passed 215-208, with four Republicans joining all Democrats in voting yes: Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, Thomas Massie of Kentucky, Tom Barrett of Michigan and Warren Davidson of Ohio.

It's all on the Senate now, which was already doing it's own thing.

Wednesday’s vote gives momentum for the resolution in the Senate, which had already advanced its own war powers resolution on the floor last month but had not yet held a final vote. The Senate version has teeth, however, and it would require Trump to end the war without congressional approval. But it would need to pass the House, and then Trump could veto it.

House votes to rebuke Trump over war with Iran

The House passed a largely symbolic war powers resolution over Republican leaders’ objections that it would “weaken the president’s hand” in negotiations with Iran.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[Altair]

They are being attacked by the great Satan, and Israel... Decades/centuries of hatred aren't wiped away because you dislike the bosses.

There is a reason dictatorships use war to shore-up support when they are weak. There was potential that cutting off the head would topple the regime, and it didn't happen. That doesn't mean that when the inevitable peace happens the public will still tolerate them. As @KevinB and others have pointed out, the problems that existed before haven't magically gone away because the economy has been shut down, and all their stuff has been blown-up.

The regime was at its weakest when the head was cut off and yet here we are. I find it implausible that it would somehow be weaker and more prone to toppling when the head is securely back in place.

Is Iran making more than they did before the war? No. Is their economy functioning? Not really...

All things that are present now, but won't be once peace returns. Again, they will be in a stronger position relative to now when this is over.

Again, all the problem s they had before are still there, and when the unity caused by an outside enemy fades, things aren't going to be rosy for leadership.

I fail to see how a regime very efficient in slaughtering their own people will be less effective in slaughtering their own people with more hardliners in power and the IRGC even more entrenched.

The IRGC is in power, until someone inside decides they can do better for themself by changing things up, or the people get tired of their bootheel. Whether that's tomorrow, or two years from now, the current war is weakening the system currently in place.

I'm done holding my breath.

KJU might fall before the Ayatollahs at this point, and he seems very secure.

 

[RangerRay]

As I said before, the protest movement has been Tiananmen’ed. Like the Chinese protest movement before them, they no longer exist. Anyone still alive is not poking their heads out. Just because we didn’t see the tanks crushing their bodies like we did in 1989 in Beijing doesn’t make them less nonexistent.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

They are being attacked by the great Satan, and Israel... Decades/centuries of hatred aren't wiped away because you dislike the bosses.

There is a reason dictatorships use war to shore-up support when they are weak. There was potential that cutting off the head would topple the regime, and it didn't happen. That doesn't mean that when the inevitable peace happens the public will still tolerate them. As @KevinB and others have pointed out, the problems that existed before haven't magically gone away because the economy has been shut down, and all their stuff has been blown-up.


Is Iran making more than they did before the war? No. Is their economy functioning? Not really... Again, all the problem s they had before are still there, and when the unity caused by an outside enemy fades, things aren't going to be rosy for leadership.

The IRGC is in power, until someone inside decides they can do better for themself by changing things up, or the people get tired of their bootheel. Whether that's tomorrow, or two years from now, the current war is weakening the system currently in place.

People are tired and they tried, but without guns, they are just machine gun fodder, until Persians get tired of shooting there own and there is not enough money to pay enough Arab/Afghan proxies, they will not be able to overthrow the government.

However, the drought issue still remains, now coupled with most of the money exchange centers in the Gulf States, refusing to handle Iranian money, so joe average Iranian trader, can't buy goods from overseas, the economy is a shadow of itself. The elite are still going to get richer and that is going to poison the well with many of the IRGC members, who won't be getting paid, can't feed their families and are at risk of getting killed at a checkpoint.