- Reaction score
- 2,454
- Points
- 1,140
Iran Super Thread- Merged
- Thread starter JasonH
- Start date
daftandbarmy
Army.ca Fossil
- Reaction score
- 46,444
- Points
- 1,160
But that won't 'git 'er dun' before the next round of midterm elections...
QV
Army.ca Fixture
- Reaction score
- 5,166
- Points
- 1,040
The Berlin Wall fell in 1989.... the USSR didn't formally cease to exist until late 1991.
Assad in Syria looked permanent until he suddenly wasn't.
Specific events can demonstrate that a regime is either not invincible or mortally wounded - such as the ass whooping Israel and USA inflicted on Iran.... Institutional collapse can come later like in the above two examples. It's during the later part where different pressures are also added.
HavokFour
Army.ca Veteran
- Reaction score
- 3,563
- Points
- 1,040
Confirmed a few things himself.
www.reuters.com
Trump confirms he called Netanyahu crazy in phone call
U.S. President Donald Trump acknowledged having called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu crazy in an expletive-filled phone exchange over fighting in Lebanon, while the U.S. was trying to negotiate an end to hostilities with Iran.
www.reuters.com
KevinB
Army.ca Relic
- Reaction score
- 30,253
- Points
- 1,260
Oh believe me, I think this whole debacle stinks -- I am just offering a possible COA, one that is a lot more deniable, and one that ideally would not see a lot of Gulf targets hit by Iran.
KevinB
Army.ca Relic
- Reaction score
- 30,253
- Points
- 1,260
Did Benny return with "Pot this is Kettle you are black too"?Confirmed a few things himself.
Trump confirms he called Netanyahu crazy in phone call
U.S. President Donald Trump acknowledged having called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu crazy in an expletive-filled phone exchange over fighting in Lebanon, while the U.S. was trying to negotiate an end to hostilities with Iran.
- Reaction score
- 2,454
- Points
- 1,140
If there is a rebellion... if people take up arms, when better than now to strike the IRGC as they fight the rebels? Or to shoot down any remaining air assets Iran May own? Or to tolerate a closure of the strait of Hormuz? It's already closed, nothing to lose. A closure in the future will be all the more painful.
A rebellion 2 years, 3 years from now is doomed.
So if not now, when?
Let's not forget, and I know he has said a lot between day one and day now, but the moment of your liberation has arrived were the words spoken.
So all this talk, Iran is on the brink, Iran facing uprisings, Iran that will overthrow the Ayatollahs and IRGC, it's bull.
Iran is proving more resilient than ever, and Israel and the USA is giving it that legitimacy.
What a waste.
Last edited:
KevinB
Army.ca Relic
- Reaction score
- 30,253
- Points
- 1,260
No disagreement here.
All I see in Iran is pain -- regardless of what COA is chosen -- I think it is better to take the pain now.
Unfortunately the US/Israel original COA has left any good options to be unpleasant and a lot more painful than they could have been several months ago.
- Reaction score
- 10,106
- Points
- 1,140
They are being attacked by the great Satan, and Israel... Decades/centuries of hatred aren't wiped away because you dislike the bosses.
There is a reason dictatorships use war to shore-up support when they are weak. There was potential that cutting off the head would topple the regime, and it didn't happen. That doesn't mean that when the inevitable peace happens the public will still tolerate them. As @KevinB and others have pointed out, the problems that existed before haven't magically gone away because the economy has been shut down, and all their stuff has been blown-up.
Is Iran making more than they did before the war? No. Is their economy functioning? Not really... Again, all the problem s they had before are still there, and when the unity caused by an outside enemy fades, things aren't going to be rosy for leadership.
The IRGC is in power, until someone inside decides they can do better for themself by changing things up, or the people get tired of their bootheel. Whether that's tomorrow, or two years from now, the current war is weakening the system currently in place.
HavokFour
Army.ca Veteran
- Reaction score
- 3,563
- Points
- 1,040
Surprise.
It's all on the Senate now, which was already doing it's own thing.
www.nbcnews.com
It's all on the Senate now, which was already doing it's own thing.
House votes to rebuke Trump over war with Iran
The House passed a largely symbolic war powers resolution over Republican leaders’ objections that it would “weaken the president’s hand” in negotiations with Iran.
www.nbcnews.com
- Reaction score
- 2,454
- Points
- 1,140
The regime was at its weakest when the head was cut off and yet here we are. I find it implausible that it would somehow be weaker and more prone to toppling when the head is securely back in place.
All things that are present now, but won't be once peace returns. Again, they will be in a stronger position relative to now when this is over.
I fail to see how a regime very efficient in slaughtering their own people will be less effective in slaughtering their own people with more hardliners in power and the IRGC even more entrenched.
I'm done holding my breath.
KJU might fall before the Ayatollahs at this point, and he seems very secure.
- Reaction score
- 6,736
- Points
- 1,260
As I said before, the protest movement has been Tiananmen’ed. Like the Chinese protest movement before them, they no longer exist. Anyone still alive is not poking their heads out. Just because we didn’t see the tanks crushing their bodies like we did in 1989 in Beijing doesn’t make them less nonexistent.
- Reaction score
- 18,177
- Points
- 1,160
People are tired and they tried, but without guns, they are just machine gun fodder, until Persians get tired of shooting there own and there is not enough money to pay enough Arab/Afghan proxies, they will not be able to overthrow the government.
However, the drought issue still remains, now coupled with most of the money exchange centers in the Gulf States, refusing to handle Iranian money, so joe average Iranian trader, can't buy goods from overseas, the economy is a shadow of itself. The elite are still going to get richer and that is going to poison the well with many of the IRGC members, who won't be getting paid, can't feed their families and are at risk of getting killed at a checkpoint.
- Reaction score
- 6,736
- Points
- 1,260
Trump’s actions are creating American weakness vis a vis Iran and Israel and accelerating American decline.
phillipspobrien.substack.com
Midweek Update #13: How Weak Is The USA?
Trump Is Creating A Scorched Earth GOP and Executive Branch—Be Afraid
phillipspobrien.substack.com
- Reaction score
- 18,177
- Points
- 1,160
The US has not been able to "control" Iran for decades, I will argue Iran succeeded in controlling the US when it bombed the US Marine Barracks, which fundamentally changed US military and foreign policy in the ME. Along with Iran influencing Shite groups in Iraq during the occupation of Iraq.
daftandbarmy
Army.ca Fossil
- Reaction score
- 46,444
- Points
- 1,160
And it all goes back further than that, of course.
The Crusades were a 'spoiling attack': change my mind
Tom FitzGerald on Instagram: "Every time the Crusades are discussed, the story usually begins in 1095 with Pope Urban II calling for the First Crusade. The problem is that the history didn’t begin in 1095. By that point, Muslim armies had conquered
12K likes, 496 comments - tomfitzgerald._ on June 3, 2026: "Every time the Crusades are discussed, the story usually begins in 1095 with Pope Urban II calling for the First Crusade. The problem is that the history didn’t begin in 1095. By that point, Muslim armies had conquered Christian...
www.instagram.com
QV
Army.ca Fixture
- Reaction score
- 5,166
- Points
- 1,040
America Is Winning and Iran Is Losing — Badly | National Review
With its economy and military in dire straits, the Iranian regime is seeing what it’s like to face a U.S. foreign policy not governed by fear.
www.nationalreview.com
If you pay attention only to the comments of certain world leaders or read the opinion sections in certain national papers, you might be led to believe that the last three months in the Middle East saw the downfall of the American economy, the destruction of the U.S. military, and the rise of the Islamic Republic of Iran as a power that can rival the United States.
But had any of that been the case, perhaps the Iranian regime would have immediately let its people back onto the internet, after months of digital darkness, to revel in its strength and glory. Instead, the regime is increasingly paranoid as Iranians return to the web and broadcast the authentic, devastated state of conditions in Tehran and across the country. Indeed, Iran’s manicured façade of strength and resilience crumbles once you listen to its people.
Here’s the reality: The regime’s economy is in free fall, its military has been obliterated, and its attacks against international shipping and energy in the Gulf, far from a show of strength, are the desperate gasps of a drowning regime. As CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper testified to Congress in May, the U.S. military managed to dismantle 47 years of Iranian military investment in just 38 days.
Many Americans question why this war was necessary in the first place. There is the technically correct answer: Through its missile and drone production, Iran was rapidly approaching a dangerous conventional deterrence that could have protected the regime in reconstituting its nuclear program had it been left untouched.
But the broader truth is that this war has been ongoing for 47 years. While the Islamic Republic and its terror proxies killed thousands of Americans, U.S. presidents of both parties responded with a policy of appeasement, weakness, and fear of Tehran.
America stood back while our enemies killed scores of our soldiers. We let the Iranian regime and its “Axis of Resistance” build up massive arsenals of advanced weapons. Republican and Democratic presidents alike took little action as Iran took our diplomats hostage, bombed our Marines in Beirut, encircled Israel, blew up our soldiers in Iraq, and plotted assassinations against American officials on American soil. Barack Obama and Joe Biden even rewarded Iran’s hostage-taking with billion-dollar ransom payments and responded to their nuclear extortion with toothless deals that merely kicked the can down the road to future leaders.
By contrast, President Trump’s approach to the Middle East is not a policy of appeasement or fear. It is a policy of courage.
After last year’s decisive strikes, it would have been incredibly easy for the president to declare victory and leave the remainder of Iran’s threats to his successors. The conventionally smart choice politically ahead of the midterms would have been to do nothing: to ignore Iran’s drones and ballistic missiles that could have built a deterrent shield for their nuclear program, and to ignore their support for terrorists.
Some point to Iran’s defiant posture at the negotiating table as evidence that Tehran retains leverage. But don’t be fooled: Iran’s hardline stance in negotiations is mostly a smokescreen, a well-worn regime tactic deployed precisely when they’re at their weakest. They know that appearing submissive invites more pressure, so they display a veneer of strength that they no longer possess. We’ve seen this playbook before: For years, Iran stalled nuclear talks and issued maximalist demands not from a position of power but to buy time and obscure the depth of their vulnerability. Today, with their military shattered, their economy hemorrhaging hundreds of millions of dollars per day in lost oil revenue, and their terrorist proxy network starved of weapons and cash, the bravado at the table is a tell, not a threat.
I’m well aware that fighting back against the Iranian threat is not easy — it has real human costs. We must always honor the memory of the 13 brave U.S. servicemembers who have given their lives in this war. Yet their sacrifice has the potential to end Iran’s decades of war against the United States, our troops and citizens, and our way of life.
Courage alone can bring us to a place of strength and security, and a step closer to a future where the brave people of Iran and the good people of the Middle East and the world will be free from the scourge of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
However, this future will never happen if America is guided by a policy of fear. Such a mindset leads to weakness, which inevitably leads to war — but on our enemies’ terms, not ours.
Through the bravery of our incredible armed forces, and enormous assistance from Israel, Iran’s top nuclear scientists are dead. The country’s nuclear facilities lie in ruin. We have damaged or destroyed 85 percent of Iran’s ballistic missile, drone, and naval industrial base. Iran’s air force and air defenses are practically nonexistent. More than 150 Iranian vessels lie at the bottom of the Persian Gulf — virtually their entire navy.
The Islamic Republic’s forces cannot win on the battlefield, so they are pouring resources into the field of battle they know best: propaganda. That is why their propaganda budget is six times larger than their diplomatic budget.
Still, what the regime doesn’t admit in their Lego videos is that desperation is setting in. An Iranian official admitted that 2 million jobs have been lost since the war began. Their currency’s value has crumbled. The governor of Iran’s central bank warned that it could take twelve years for Iran to rebuild its economy and that inflation could reach 180 percent.
Each day that President Trump’s oil embargo on Iran continues, Iran loses $435 million in revenue. Those funds were the financial lifeblood of the Islamic Republic’s terror and military budget, flowing straight to the IRGC, Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. Now their cash cow has been put on hold.
The regime can no longer arm or resupply Hezbollah, the Houthis, Hamas, or their Iraqi militias with advanced weapons — an unprecedented development. The regime’s soldiers aren’t getting paid. Desertions have started in the regime’s ranks. All of these hamstrings on the Iranian war effort will get worse as American pressure continues. As we saw in Syria, the loyalty of goons lasts only as long as the paychecks keep coming in.
Today, we fight the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism. We fight to ensure that they never have the means to obtain a nuclear weapon and that they can never deter our efforts to obstruct their nuclear aims. We fight them on our terms. We have slaughtered their legions of terror and destroyed the weapons they use to wage war and oppression. Thanks to President Trump and our abandonment of a fear-based approach toward Iran, we are winning.
- Reaction score
- 23,894
- Points
- 1,010
Small point, QV:
You quoted the entire article from NR without making it explicitly clear that it was not your work or your thoughts.
A quick scan of your post could lead to misunderstanding.
You quoted the entire article from NR without making it explicitly clear that it was not your work or your thoughts.
A quick scan of your post could lead to misunderstanding.
KevinB
Army.ca Relic
- Reaction score
- 30,253
- Points
- 1,260
I blame EveAnd it all goes back further than that, of course.
The Crusades were a 'spoiling attack': change my mind
Tom FitzGerald on Instagram: "Every time the Crusades are discussed, the story usually begins in 1095 with Pope Urban II calling for the First Crusade. The problem is that the history didn’t begin in 1095. By that point, Muslim armies had conquered
12K likes, 496 comments - tomfitzgerald._ on June 3, 2026: "Every time the Crusades are discussed, the story usually begins in 1095 with Pope Urban II calling for the First Crusade. The problem is that the history didn’t begin in 1095. By that point, Muslim armies had conquered Christian...
The ME post WW2 was quite frankly (and arguably still is) a shit show. It is impossible without writing pages and pages of history to explain all the twists and turns.
BUT in Lebanon the Israeli invasion in 1982 kicked the (until then) fairly docile Shia in Lebanon into action getting support from Iran, and the creation of Hezbollah. Black September in Jordan had seen the expulsion of Palestinians into Lebanon in 1970, and while things hadn’t be going well prior to that things have been pretty bleak since the 1960’s.
One could argue that until the Beruit bombings in 1983 (US Embassy in April, and USMC Barracks in October) the US was trying to work as a relatively neutral player as part of the MNF -- and it was not just the US that left in February of 1994, it was the French and Italians as well - so the only credible parts to the MNFL. While Hezbollah may have been the triggermen it was clear the money had come from Iran - but Iran was having it’s own issues.
Remember the Iran-Iraq War? That 8 year mess of back and forth. Iran was totally isolated -- it had to develop its own weapons - as both the West, as well as Russia and China were busy supporting Saddam’s Iraq. The Tanker was of 1987-88 resulted in the US reflagging Kuwaiti and other nations Oil tankers and escorting them with the USN - and SEAL’s capturing an Iranian Mine Laying vessel - which put the world entire against Iran, and they where F’ing up the entire worlds Oil.
In mid 1988 Saddam offered a Ceasefire along the then current Lines of Control and promised Iran he would use WMD’s on Iranian cities if refused, that combined with world apathy when the USN USS Carl Vincennes mistakenly shot down the Iran Air airliner lead the Ayatollah to accept begrudgingly.
I do not for once accept that the US withdrew from the ME or let Iran go after the Beruit bombings -- but it did make the US chose sides against Iran much more clearly.
