• Thanks for stopping by. Logging in to a registered account will remove all generic ads. Please reach out with any questions or concerns.

Political impacts of Ukraine war

Things are getting desperate for new recruits. The signing bonus has also dropped like a rock.

That's nearly C$200,000 of debt banks in Russia will never see paid back, per body.

www.dw.com

Putin offers debt relief to new recruits for Ukraine war

New recruits for Russia's war in Ukraine will have debts up to 10 million rubles canceled under a presidential decree. Another new law reportedly foresees the use of Russian armed forces to protect citizens abroad.
www.dw.com www.dw.com
 
HavokFour said:
Things are getting desperate for new recruits. The signing bonus has also dropped like a rock.

That's nearly C$200,000 of debt banks in Russia will never see paid back, per body.

www.dw.com

Putin offers debt relief to new recruits for Ukraine war

New recruits for Russia's war in Ukraine will have debts up to 10 million rubles canceled under a presidential decree. Another new law reportedly foresees the use of Russian armed forces to protect citizens abroad.
www.dw.com www.dw.com
Click to expand...
that second law is the one that will trigger the Transnistria takeover.😡
 
Corporations were already taking over things like law enforcement in the eastern part of the country, this will help along the possibility of parts of Russia breaking away entirely as confidence in the government continues to erode

tvpworld.com

Russia's central, top bank to operate anti-drone systems

The institutions would handle the cost of drone defence themselves.
tvpworld.com tvpworld.com

Russia has passed a law allowing its central bank and other financial institutions to operate defence systems and arm staff to ward off drone attacks without special forces involvement, a document published by the lower house of parliament showed on Tuesday.
Click to expand...

Meanwhile, Russia's rate of advance per day.

2025: 13.2km²
2026: 2.9km²

Exclusive: Senior Ukrainian commander sees imminent 'turning point' in war​


www.nytimes.com

Could Russia Hit Harder? It at Least Wants Ukraine to Think So.

Major attacks on Kyiv, followed by warnings of more, come as Moscow is stalled on the battlefield and at the negotiating table.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
Archive
 
Last edited:
YZT580 said:
that second law is the one that will trigger the Transnistria takeover.😡
Click to expand...
I'm really curious how dedicated/motivated the actual Russian component of the Transnistria garrison is.

"Comrades, I know we've spent all these years getting comfortable with local entrepreneurs, encouraging the Eye of Moscow to pass on to others, selling whatever to whoever, stringing along the Glorious People's Transistrian Resistance Corps, and enjoying a life free of drones, cruise missiles, and discussions about whether Moldovan or Ukrainian forces are the anvil. How would you like to change all that?"
 
quadrapiper said:
I'm really curious how dedicated/motivated the actual Russian component of the Transnistria garrison is.

"Comrades, I know we've spent all these years getting comfortable with local entrepreneurs, encouraging the Eye of Moscow to pass on to others, selling whatever to whoever, stringing along the Glorious People's Transistrian Resistance Corps, and enjoying a life free of drones, cruise missiles, and discussions about whether Moldovan or Ukrainian forces are the anvil. How would you like to change all that?"
Click to expand...
They most likely have old to very old equipment, haven't had any parts/resupply of equipment over the last 3+yrs, low morale, no ability for those troops to leave the Trans area and visit family/friends back in Russia, I would think that it might be a 'mere case of marching' to end all of them.
 
Czech_pivo said:
They most likely have old to very old equipment, haven't had any parts/resupply of equipment over the last 3+yrs, low morale, no ability for those troops to leave the Trans area and visit family/friends back in Russia, I would think that it might be a 'mere case of marching' to end all of them.
Click to expand...

Aren't they also still worried about the absolutely massive and ancient soviet stockpile being stored there catching a stray and vaporizing a good chunk of the region? I distinctly remember something about that when the war started up.

I think you are correct though, those there are likely not willing to put up much of a fight.
 
quadrapiper said:
I'm really curious how dedicated/motivated the actual Russian component of the Transnistria garrison is.

"Comrades, I know we've spent all these years getting comfortable with local entrepreneurs, encouraging the Eye of Moscow to pass on to others, selling whatever to whoever, stringing along the Glorious People's Transistrian Resistance Corps, and enjoying a life free of drones, cruise missiles, and discussions about whether Moldovan or Ukrainian forces are the anvil. How would you like to change all that?"
Click to expand...
There are only actually 70-100 actual 'Russian' soldiers in Transnistria, generally just a few Officers. Almost the entire OGRF in Transnistria are locals who are employed as soldiers. The entire Transnistrian military force is a remnant of the Soviet 14th Guards Combined Arms Army, which was overwhelmingly filled with Moldovans.

Very interesting bit of history there. That part of Moldova is filled with Russian speakers while the rest of Moldova is aligned with Romania. The entire conflict there stems from ethno-political and a language spat. I don't think the Transnistrians have much interest in helping Russia so much as they have interest in remaining a distinct neutral territory within Moldova.
 
HavokFour said:
Aren't they also still worried about the absolutely massive and ancient soviet stockpile being stored there catching a stray and vaporizing a good chunk of the region? I distinctly remember something about that when the war started up.

I think you are correct though, those there are likely not willing to put up much of a fight.
Click to expand...
Yes, those old stock piles are surely a ticking timebomb.

All those 1500 odd troops are basically in their own prison where they feed themselves and basically take care of themselves. They can't leave their prison, they can't have any new prisoners added to their prison, they can't have friends/family visits, they just continue to exist.
 
A Russian drone struck an apartment building in Romania last night. 2 people injured, Article 4 being considered.

www.france24.com

Russian drone launched against Ukraine hits apartment building in Romania

A drone struck a residential building in Romania’s city of Galati near the Ukrainian border, injuring two people and triggering a fire after impact, authorities said on Friday. The incident, which prompted…
www.france24.com www.france24.com

www.theguardian.com

Nato ready to defend ‘every inch’ of territory as Russian drone hits Romania

Mark Rutte says Moscow’s ‘reckless behaviour is a danger to us all’ after drone hit apartments during attack on Ukraine
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

www.nytimes.com

Romania Says It Could Invoke NATO’s Article 4. What Would That Do?

The clause in NATO’s founding treaty is an “instrument” Romania can use, the foreign minister said after a drone, alleged to be Russian, wounded two civilians.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
 
HavokFour said:
Say uncle.

euromaidanpress.com

Putin wants war concluded this year on victorious terms including Donbas, Bloomberg reports - Euromaidan Press

Some Kremlin officials see war at dead end, while Putin pushes for year-end resolution with Donbas control, Bloomberg reported on 22 May
euromaidanpress.com euromaidanpress.com

So, I mentioned the land route to Crimea starting to resemble the roads closer to the front. It's going to accelerate now, they've restricted a portion from civilian use entirely. They aren't moving in more CUAS or putting up netting, their solution is "hey, you can't drive here anymore because the military can't provide adequate protection".

In other words, Crimea for the average Russian is now partially cut off.

2 more routes to go.

Russian source: Rybar in English

View attachment 100419
Click to expand...

Now that certain parts are being restricted from civilian use.

Small mines are being deployed by drones to bust tires and force things slow down further, and increase the probability of getting hit by a loitering munition.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2060341266458566800

https://twitter.com/x/status/2060386504568905760

https://twitter.com/x/status/2060349954879549684
 
HavokFour said:
The fact that he even said this is strange, the SecDef hasn't exactly been very keen on helping out Ukraine.

Hegseth says US will ‘find a way’ to help Ukraine after Zelensky's plea for air defense missiles​

Click to expand...
PH like a sailboat, will go with the wind...
I suspect the fact that what we need for the Straights and the Gulf States is a lot of stuff Ukraine does well, and Ukraine has some needs that we can supply -- so helping Ukraine is significantly valuable.
 
Good play by Ukraine, once again proving that they are not the obstacle.

Russian casualties have increased substantially while their actual gains have nosedived. The beatings of Russian supply lines and O&G infrastructure shall continue.

united24media.com

Putin Dismisses Zelenskyy Letter Claiming “No Point in Direct Talks”

Putin dismissed a letter from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as rude and stated he sees no point in a meeting between the two leaders.
united24media.com united24media.com
 
HavokFour said:
Good play by Ukraine, once again proving that they are not the obstacle.

Russian casualties have increased substantially while their actual gains have nosedived. The beatings of Russian supply lines and O&G infrastructure shall continue.

united24media.com

Putin Dismisses Zelenskyy Letter Claiming “No Point in Direct Talks”

Putin dismissed a letter from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as rude and stated he sees no point in a meeting between the two leaders.
united24media.com united24media.com
Click to expand...

I forgot to include the letter. He even included some incredibly large offramps for Putin to save face.


Open Letter to the President of the Russian Federation from the President of Ukraine​

4 June 2026 - 21:20

Open Letter

To the President of the Russian Federation

From the President of Ukraine



When you came to power in Russia more than 26 years ago, many people in Ukraine viewed you positively. That is how it was. But that is now in the past.

Now, the overwhelming majority of Ukrainians view it positively that our long-range drones paid a visit to the opening of your forum in St. Petersburg, covering a distance of more than 1,000 kilometers. As you know very well, that distance is not the limit of our capabilities.

For 26 years, your time in power has completely changed the agenda of relations between Ukraine and Russia. From discussions about trade and other civilian matters, our nations have moved to talking almost exclusively about strikes and losses.

You have spent nearly half of your 26 years in power in Russia waging war against Ukraine.

Whatever you may say about NATO, geopolitics, or the Russian language, this war is your personal choice — a war without a real cause. That is how history will remember it.

Those years could have been very different.

We often hear that you are comfortable with this war. Of course, not in those cases when it comes to the security of your residence in Valdai or your parade in Moscow. Your own life is valuable to you.

But now we can all see that Russians are finally becoming less comfortable with this reality — with the fact that the war is bringing more and more negative consequences to Russia.

They do not like our drones and missiles.

They do not like gasoline shortages and constantly rising prices.

They do not like constant restrictions.

They do not like your intention to launch a second wave of mobilization in order to expand the war into another direction in Ukraine or to use it against other countries neighboring Russia.

They do not like the fact that there is no end in sight to your war.

Yes, you can still force Russians to exist this way. But your resources are shrinking significantly.

You will not have enough money or political capital to keep buying the loyalty of Russians the way you have for the past 26 years.

And we will do everything we can to ensure that the world helps bring that moment closer.

As you yourself like to say, “we need to run the numbers.”

Yesterday, I received a report on the losses of your army on the front in Ukraine during May. Once again, the number exceeded 30,000 Russian soldiers killed and seriously wounded. We have been maintaining that level month after month, and we have video confirmation of every one of your losses — these are not empty claims.

We know that 63 percent of your battlefield losses are killed, while only 37 percent are wounded. In the 21st century, no army can afford such a ratio. And the share of those killed will continue to grow.

It is not as if we in Ukraine are concerned about the fate of Russian soldiers after everything your war has brought to our country.

But I do care about Ukrainians.

We are losing our people, and every loss is painful to us. Even when the ratio of Ukrainian losses to Russian losses is one to five or one to six, it still matters greatly.

It also matters that you regularly postpone, every few months, your own deadlines for capturing our regions — especially the Donetsk region. And you will not capture it this year either.

But we in Ukraine do not want a permanent war. We know very well that life without war is infinitely better. And we want to achieve that.

I am convinced that the majority of Russians would respond positively to this as well — and you know it.

Many did not believe that Ukraine would be able to hold out for so long. You did not believe it. And those who advised you did not believe it either. That was a mistake.

You did not expect full-scale resistance from Ukraine, and you did not foresee that things would go this far. Yet here we all are — in the fifth year of this full-scale war.

Do not be afraid to take the path out of this war. That is the main thing that is required of you now.

Ukraine has preserved its independence. And it will preserve it. Despite all predictions to the contrary.

We have united many around the world to stand with Ukraine and against you. We found the weapons and the financing we needed.

We receive support. You receive sanctions. And this will continue until there is justice for Ukraine — the justice we seek and the justice that can be achieved.

We will not allow those who are trying to convince you that sanctions against Russia will be significantly eased, and that support for Ukraine will be significantly reduced, without any meaningful change in your position toward Ukraine, to succeed. The example of Orban shows how those who choose to help Russia in its war against us end in disgrace.

Ukraine has endured harsh winters while you tried to destroy our energy system. We held firm — and even in darkness, the resilience of Ukrainians remained intact.

We brought the war onto your territory, and you would not have been able to cope with it without North Korea’s help. You are the first ruler of Russia to turn to Pyongyang for assistance.

And today you are fully dependent on China — also for the first time in Russia’s history.

You believed Ukrainians would not have the strength to defend themselves. Yet today, our people are helping our partners in the Middle East and the Gulf build their own defenses.

You hoped for internal unrest in Ukraine. Instead, it was your own military formations that staged a mutiny against you. June 23 will mark another anniversary of that event, and silence will not erase this fact from history.

And now it is you whom your own officials, businessmen, and propagandists look at with obvious fatigue. The world can see it.

The world has not grown tired of Ukraine, as you long hoped it would. But there is growing fatigue with Russia — even among those in the wider world who help you bypass sanctions and keep your economy afloat.

You cannot fail to notice it. After 26 years in power, age is beginning to take its toll. And with time, the fatigue with you will only grow.

We have seen intelligence reports showing that you are now considering plans to continue the war into 2027 and 2028. We also know that you hope ballistic missiles will achieve for you what everything else has failed to achieve. You want to draw Belarus even deeper into this war, and we are now forced to prepare for that as well. We see that you are trying to orchestrate something around Transnistria. Your propagandists threaten, in one way or another, every country neighboring Russia. Do you really want to go through all of this?

The choice is yours now.

Enough of war.

Ukraine proposes to end this war.

This must be done honestly, with dignity, and with guarantees that the war will not be reignited.

We see that the United States is fully focused on the issue of Iran, and it would be wrong to simply wait until the war in Europe returns to the center of its attention.

Ukraine proposes ending this war through direct engagement between us — and you.

I am proposing a meeting.

Everyone heard your representatives, smiling, say that I could supposedly come to Moscow. But after these 26 years, there is nothing for a Ukrainian leader to do in your capital — just as there is nothing for a Russian leader to do in Kyiv.

There are countries that have traditionally hosted leaders to resolve issues of war and peace. Switzerland, Türkiye, the countries of the Arab world — many are able and willing to host such a meeting.

It is leaders who resolve the key issues. That has always been the case, and it always will be.

I propose to set a clear date for such a meeting.

We have heard that you were promised in Alaska the resolution of certain issues concerning Ukraine and Europe. But you can see for yourself that Ukrainian and European issues are not decided in Anchorage.

Other agreed participants could join the bilateral track to be established between us.

Since the war is taking place in Europe, and since Ukraine needs security guarantees, while you also seek security guarantees for yourself, it would be logical to involve those who can genuinely serve as guarantors.

We believe Europe should be part of this process — those who truly have the capacity to influence the situation.

We also believe that the United States must be part of the process. This is what could help shape a new security architecture for our part of the world.

We’ve already experienced many agreements with Russia, including the Minsk agreements, that ultimately failed. That is why we must first find direct answers between us to the questions that remain, and not hide from difficult issues behind formulas, technical working groups, or endless time lost in shuttle diplomacy.

Your war has permanently set Ukraine and Russia apart.

The front line today is the line from which diplomacy must begin.

Ukraine is ready for a full ceasefire for the duration of the negotiations. This is standard practice, and current developments around Iran only reinforce that point. An attempt to establish real silence is the best way to begin talking to one another. We believe it would not simply be an attempt, but a real ceasefire — if that is what you want.

You know that the United States has the capability to monitor a ceasefire along the line where hostilities stop.

Ukraine is ready for an all-for-all exchange of prisoners of war, and this could become a good prologue to ending the war.

Serious steps must be taken to return civilians and children who were taken away during the war.

We must determine what kind of future awaits the generations of Ukrainians and Russians who will come after us.

If you do not personally come to the conclusion that it is time to end this war, Ukraine will continue fighting for its existence. We will have those who support us.

But you, too, will have to fight much harder for your own existence — not Russia’s, but your own. And this is not a threat from me or from Ukraine. It is a fact of Russian history that you know well: when Russia grows tired, change comes.

We can work toward that fatigue.

You can stop your war.

Eternal memory to all those whose lives were taken by this war.



Glory to Ukraine!
Click to expand...
 
The cracks are appearing. Time to take advantage?

Putin’s Deepening Problems Are Europe’s Opportunity​

The Russian despot’s choices are narrowing as his war results in stalemate and impoverishment. Europe should make the most of it.

Putin is putting on a brave face, but it’s increasingly hard to portray Russia as a strong and victorious nation.

Even as it seeks to project strength at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, the so-called Russian Davos, local refineries are in flames following Ukrainian drone strikes.

Further behind the scenes, the regime is in deep economic trouble. Putin knows this. The Moscow elite knows this. The Russian people feel it in their daily lives.

The numbers speak for themselves. The Russian economy is under serious strain. Revenues are plummeting. Expenditures are skyrocketing. The Kremlin’s supposedly endless financial reserves have long since dwindled. Social systems are eroding. Living conditions are rapidly deteriorating. Life expectancy has stagnated at 72 years, and for men in many regions, at 64. Russia has killed nearly half a million of its own men in Ukraine, even as birth rates fall. The healthcare system is overburdened, underfunded, and technologically outdated. One in three Russians lives on government payments.

Meanwhile, inflation is eating away at incomes and savings. Officially, it stands at 7% to 8%, but for food it exceeds 20%, and for medicines it is nearly 18%. In many regions, inflation is even higher. Real wages are stagnating. At the same time, private debt is rising. Russian households have now taken out loans totaling over 30 trillion rubles (about $400bn), a historic high. The number of Russians spending more than half their income on loan repayments is growing. Default rates are rising. Many families are living on credit to finance their daily lives.

At first glance, the Russian labor market appears stable, but this is a distorted picture. The official unemployment rate stands at 3%. Yet this figure is misleading. Over 1.5 to 2 million men are missing from the labor force because they have been killed in action, mobilized, or have left Russia. Many companies are loudly complaining about labor shortages. Productivity is falling. Wages are rising in nominal terms, but not in real terms. Today’s labor market in Russia is marked by a brain drain.

The 2026 Russian federal budget is under pressure as never before since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The budget deficit is soaring, with military costs expected to double the shortfall by the year’s end. Military spending will reach 12 to 13 trillion rubles, a third of the total budget. Oil and gas revenues are supported by the Iran war, but that won’t be enough to turn things around. The shadow fleet is losing ships. Putin’s liquidity is dwindling. The Russian National Wealth Fund has shrunk to under $60bn — less than half of what it was two years ago. The danger of a banking crisis is clearly looming in Russia; even within Putin’s inner circle, warnings are being heard loud and clear.

cepa.org

Putin’s Deepening Problems Are Europe’s Opportunity

The Russian despot’s choices are narrowing as his war results in a stalemate and economic impoverishment. Europe should make the most of it.
cepa.org cepa.org
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

daftandbarmy
Learning lessons of Ukraine war, Canadian military creates joint command
Replies
2
Views
1K
PPCLI Guy
PPCLI Guy
Kirkhill
    • Like
Modern War in the IndoPacific
2
Replies
26
Views
5K
Kirkhill
Kirkhill
The Bread Guy
    • Angry
SecDef: Bring back the "shark attack" at boot camp
Replies
5
Views
2K
markppcli
markppcli
Kirkhill
    • Like
Turks Arabs and Pakistanis
2
Replies
22
Views
3K
Brad Sallows
Brad Sallows
Kirkhill
    • Like
Littoral Operations
2 3 4
Replies
79
Views
4K
Colin Parkinson
Colin Parkinson
Back
Top