Political impacts of Ukraine war

[Good2Golf]

Ukraine should say no.

USA will get the tech, Ukraine will get nothing from America.

Some call that getting some ‘Budapest Love’…

 

[HavokFour]

Very noisy night tonight, with reports of Oreshnik missiles in the mix.

Damage, casualties reported as Kyiv comes under massive ballistic missile, drone attack​

Coming off the back of this story today.

Sweden backs Ukraine’s path to NATO, defense chief says

Sweden’s Defense Minister Pål Jonson said Kyiv’s battle-tested army and fast-growing defense industry would strengthen the alliance, even as some NATO members remain opposed.

www.politico.eu

 

[HavokFour]

Things are getting desperate for new recruits. The signing bonus has also dropped like a rock.

That's nearly C$200,000 of debt banks in Russia will never see paid back, per body.

Putin offers debt relief to new recruits for Ukraine war

New recruits for Russia's war in Ukraine will have debts up to 10 million rubles canceled under a presidential decree. Another new law reportedly foresees the use of Russian armed forces to protect citizens abroad.

www.dw.com

 

[YZT580]

Things are getting desperate for new recruits. The signing bonus has also dropped like a rock.

That's nearly C$200,000 of debt banks in Russia will never see paid back, per body.

Putin offers debt relief to new recruits for Ukraine war

New recruits for Russia's war in Ukraine will have debts up to 10 million rubles canceled under a presidential decree. Another new law reportedly foresees the use of Russian armed forces to protect citizens abroad.

www.dw.com

that second law is the one that will trigger the Transnistria takeover.

 

[HavokFour]

Corporations were already taking over things like law enforcement in the eastern part of the country, this will help along the possibility of parts of Russia breaking away entirely as confidence in the government continues to erode

Russia's central, top bank to operate anti-drone systems

The institutions would handle the cost of drone defence themselves.

tvpworld.com

Russia has passed a law allowing its central bank and other financial institutions to operate defence systems and arm staff to ward off drone attacks without special forces involvement, a document published by the lower house of parliament showed on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, Russia's rate of advance per day.

2025: 13.2km²
2026: 2.9km²

Exclusive: Senior Ukrainian commander sees imminent 'turning point' in war​

Could Russia Hit Harder? It at Least Wants Ukraine to Think So.

Major attacks on Kyiv, followed by warnings of more, come as Moscow is stalled on the battlefield and at the negotiating table.

www.nytimes.com

Archive

 

[quadrapiper]

that second law is the one that will trigger the Transnistria takeover.

I'm really curious how dedicated/motivated the actual Russian component of the Transnistria garrison is.

"Comrades, I know we've spent all these years getting comfortable with local entrepreneurs, encouraging the Eye of Moscow to pass on to others, selling whatever to whoever, stringing along the Glorious People's Transistrian Resistance Corps, and enjoying a life free of drones, cruise missiles, and discussions about whether Moldovan or Ukrainian forces are the anvil. How would you like to change all that?"

 

[The Bread Guy]

Here’s hoping Canada’s still on board ..,

Fewer countries back Czech ammo initiative, raising supply concerns

Fewer countries back Czech ammo initiative, raising supply concerns

english.radio.cz

 

[Czech_pivo]

I'm really curious how dedicated/motivated the actual Russian component of the Transnistria garrison is.

"Comrades, I know we've spent all these years getting comfortable with local entrepreneurs, encouraging the Eye of Moscow to pass on to others, selling whatever to whoever, stringing along the Glorious People's Transistrian Resistance Corps, and enjoying a life free of drones, cruise missiles, and discussions about whether Moldovan or Ukrainian forces are the anvil. How would you like to change all that?"

They most likely have old to very old equipment, haven't had any parts/resupply of equipment over the last 3+yrs, low morale, no ability for those troops to leave the Trans area and visit family/friends back in Russia, I would think that it might be a 'mere case of marching' to end all of them.

 

[HavokFour]

They most likely have old to very old equipment, haven't had any parts/resupply of equipment over the last 3+yrs, low morale, no ability for those troops to leave the Trans area and visit family/friends back in Russia, I would think that it might be a 'mere case of marching' to end all of them.

Aren't they also still worried about the absolutely massive and ancient soviet stockpile being stored there catching a stray and vaporizing a good chunk of the region? I distinctly remember something about that when the war started up.

I think you are correct though, those there are likely not willing to put up much of a fight.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

I'm really curious how dedicated/motivated the actual Russian component of the Transnistria garrison is.

"Comrades, I know we've spent all these years getting comfortable with local entrepreneurs, encouraging the Eye of Moscow to pass on to others, selling whatever to whoever, stringing along the Glorious People's Transistrian Resistance Corps, and enjoying a life free of drones, cruise missiles, and discussions about whether Moldovan or Ukrainian forces are the anvil. How would you like to change all that?"

There are only actually 70-100 actual 'Russian' soldiers in Transnistria, generally just a few Officers. Almost the entire OGRF in Transnistria are locals who are employed as soldiers. The entire Transnistrian military force is a remnant of the Soviet 14th Guards Combined Arms Army, which was overwhelmingly filled with Moldovans.

Very interesting bit of history there. That part of Moldova is filled with Russian speakers while the rest of Moldova is aligned with Romania. The entire conflict there stems from ethno-political and a language spat. I don't think the Transnistrians have much interest in helping Russia so much as they have interest in remaining a distinct neutral territory within Moldova.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Aren't they also still worried about the absolutely massive and ancient soviet stockpile being stored there catching a stray and vaporizing a good chunk of the region? I distinctly remember something about that when the war started up.

I think you are correct though, those there are likely not willing to put up much of a fight.

Yes, those old stock piles are surely a ticking timebomb.

All those 1500 odd troops are basically in their own prison where they feed themselves and basically take care of themselves. They can't leave their prison, they can't have any new prisoners added to their prison, they can't have friends/family visits, they just continue to exist.

 

[HavokFour]

A Russian drone struck an apartment building in Romania last night. 2 people injured, Article 4 being considered.

Russian drone launched against Ukraine hits apartment building in Romania

A drone struck a residential building in Romania’s city of Galati near the Ukrainian border, injuring two people and triggering a fire after impact, authorities said on Friday. The incident, which prompted…

www.france24.com

Nato ready to defend ‘every inch’ of territory as Russian drone hits Romania

Mark Rutte says Moscow’s ‘reckless behaviour is a danger to us all’ after drone hit apartments during attack on Ukraine

www.theguardian.com

Romania Says It Could Invoke NATO’s Article 4. What Would That Do?

The clause in NATO’s founding treaty is an “instrument” Romania can use, the foreign minister said after a drone, alleged to be Russian, wounded two civilians.

www.nytimes.com

 

[HavokFour]

Say uncle.

Putin wants war concluded this year on victorious terms including Donbas, Bloomberg reports - Euromaidan Press

Some Kremlin officials see war at dead end, while Putin pushes for year-end resolution with Donbas control, Bloomberg reported on 22 May

euromaidanpress.com

So, I mentioned the land route to Crimea starting to resemble the roads closer to the front. It's going to accelerate now, they've restricted a portion from civilian use entirely. They aren't moving in more CUAS or putting up netting, their solution is "hey, you can't drive here anymore because the military can't provide adequate protection".

In other words, Crimea for the average Russian is now partially cut off.

2 more routes to go.

Russian source: Rybar in English

View attachment 100419

Now that certain parts are being restricted from civilian use.

Small mines are being deployed by drones to bust tires and force things slow down further, and increase the probability of getting hit by a loitering munition.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2060341266458566800

https://twitter.com/x/status/2060386504568905760

https://twitter.com/x/status/2060349954879549684