Replacing the Subs

[Czech_pivo]

The PM will be in Vancouver on 1 July welcoming the President of the Philippines on an official visit.

EDIT:
Wonder if the Vic's could be donated to them......

 

[MacNav63]

The PM will be in Vancouver on 1 July welcoming the President of the Philippines on an official visit.

EDIT:
Wonder if the Vic's could be donated to them......

I see that the President of the Philippines will be in Vancouver on July 1 but not that Carney will be. Protocol would suggest that the GG would be doing the welcoming as well. And both will be in Ottawa until early afternoon I would think.

That being said, with the 3-hour time difference, if the President arrives late in the day in Vancouver, one or both of them could be there to welcome him. The PM could then hop over to Esquimalt to announce the subs on the 2nd I guess. Just doesn't seem likely to me.

 

[Underway]

I agree that this will be an announcement probably with a submarine in the background. It won't be at NATO.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I see that the President of the Philippines will be in Vancouver on July 1 but not that Carney will be. Protocol would suggest that the GG would be doing the welcoming as well. And both will be in Ottawa until early afternoon I would think.

That being said, with the 3-hour time difference, if the President arrives late in the day in Vancouver, one or both of them could be there to welcome him. The PM could then hop over to Esquimalt to announce the subs on the 2nd I guess. Just doesn't seem likely to me.

Prime Minister Carney to welcome President of the Philippines Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to Canada

With nearly one million Canadians of Filipino descent, the diaspora is one of Canada’s most dynamic, vibrant, and expansive.

www.pm.gc.ca

Today, the Prime Minister, Mark Carney, announced that the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., will visit Vancouver, British Columbia, from July 1 to 4, 2026. This will be the first visit by a head of state of the Philippines to Canada in 11 yrs.

Prime Minister Carney to welcome President of the Philippines Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to Canada​

The headline of the press releases says that Carney 'to welcome.......to Canada' and that the Pres of P. will be in 'visit Vancouver, BC from July 1 to 4'

 

[MacNav63]

Prime Minister Carney to welcome President of the Philippines Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to Canada

With nearly one million Canadians of Filipino descent, the diaspora is one of Canada’s most dynamic, vibrant, and expansive.

www.pm.gc.ca

Today, the Prime Minister, Mark Carney, announced that the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., will visit Vancouver, British Columbia, from July 1 to 4, 2026. This will be the first visit by a head of state of the Philippines to Canada in 11 yrs.

Prime Minister Carney to welcome President of the Philippines Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to Canada​

The headline of the press releases says that Carney 'to welcome.......to Canada' and that the Pres of P. will be in 'visit Vancouver, BC from July 1 to 4'

Saw that but then no other details and for sure Carney is at least going to start the day in Ottawa. But like I said, he can still make it out there. Doesn't change my pick for the pool.

 

[HavokFour]

Last minute sweetener from TKMS.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2070520411134054608

 

[HavokFour]

Saw that but then no other details and for sure Carney is at least going to start the day in Ottawa. But like I said, he can still make it out there. Doesn't change my pick for the pool.

I swear I saw that he would be speaking at the noon ceremony at LeBreton Flats Park, but can no longer find it. The big special guests are Jeremy Hansen and Rick Hansen.

Perhaps he'll be doing it via live video feed from Vancouver or Esquimalt?

National noon ceremony — Canada Day 2026 - Canada.ca

The daytime ceremony kicks off the national celebrations with a look at our past, present and future. It underlines important anniversaries and themes while recognizing the diversity of our country. You’ll also have a chance to see the Canada Day Royal Canadian Air Force Centennial Flypast — the...

www.canada.ca

 

[Grimey]

Never happen, the only people who hate the very concept of Naval air power more then the Airforce is the Navy.

Did Op Apollo on ALG with no helairdet. Six months with flying stations counted on one hand was glorious.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

Last minute sweetener from TKMS.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2070520411134054608

I'm thinking the decision has already been made. Just waiting for the formal announcement.

 

[MacNav63]

I'm thinking the decision has already been made. Just waiting for the formal announcement.

From a comms perspective, if the announcement is in the next couple of weeks then for sure decision has been made. There are releases, backgrounders, web pages, speaking notes, Q&A, contact plans, venue prep to be done, translated and coordinated across PMO, DND, the winner, the governments, etc. All of which takes some time. All of which can be done fast for sure but why rush.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

From a comms perspective, if the announcement is in the next couple of weeks then for sure decision has been made. There are releases, backgrounders, web pages, speaking notes, Q&A, contact plans, venue prep to be done, translated and coordinated across PMO, DND, the winner, the governments, etc. All of which takes some time. All of which can be done fast for sure but why rush.

And they seem to be taking great care that there is no room for a legal challenge, which supports what you said, that likely it was made awhile ago and just timing now.

 

[GK .Dundas]

Ghhh

Did Op Apollo on ALG with no helairdet. Six months with flying stations counted on one hand was glorious.

I sometimes wonder if the Navy thinks that Aircraft are just a nasty rumor.

 

[oldcpu]

Some wild (very very VERY hypothetical) speculation re: potential delivery schedules for the Hanwha Ocean KSS-III-batch-2 given the recent German/Norwegian TKMS Type-212CD delivery schedule updates. ... Hanwha Ocean originally appeared to have a big advantage in proposed delivery schedule, which Germany narrowed by obtaining German Navy and Norwegian government agreement, for TKMS to possibly each take one boat from their early Type-212CD deliveries and propose pass to Canada. That came close to leveling the delivery schedule 'playing field' between TKMS and Hanwha Ocean.

I asked myself - could Hanwha Ocean do the same? Could Hanwha Ocean propose to divert its last planned KSS-III-batch-2 from the South Korean navy and propose to provide that to the RCN? That could mean a KSS-III-batch-2 in year 2031 to Canada (ie 1 year earlier than the current bandied about 2032) again putting Hanwha Ocean deliveries far in the lead.

Obviously the major argument against such a hypothesis is the impact on South Korea's navy would be big. South Korea very recently lost a KSS-II (TKMS type-214 variant) due to a major fire. So the South Korean navy is already short one submarine and diverting an early KSS-III-batch-2 to Canada would have even more impact on South Korean Navy. ... However, for the sake of speculation, South Korean government (to help Hanwha Ocean) could sweeten the spot to the South Korean Navy, to promise two extra KSS-III-batch-3 submarines (currently likely only on the drawing board as a conventional and NOT the nuclear propulsion KSS) to replace the lost KSS-II and replace a very very hypothetical diverted KSS-III-batch-2 to Canada.

IMHO - its not going to happen. South Korea is unlikely to divert the last boat in its KSS-III-batch-2 production line - but it is a hypothetical scenario I considered.

In doing this, I also asked myself, if Hanwha Ocean gets a contract to provide 12 submarines to Canada, would they all be KSS-III-batch-2, or could it be a 50-50 split between KSS-III-batch-2 and KSS-III-batch-3? (I am assuming batch-3 is conventional propulsion). Again, IMHO, its not going to happen. Canada would only get KSS-III-batch-2 hulls, although I suspect the electronics and some internal systems will be differerent between the first KSS-III-batch-2 and the last KSS-III-batch-2. Technology will advance a lot in the decade between the first and last boat delivery.

 

[Nvlgzr]

The PM will be in Vancouver on 1 July welcoming the President of the Philippines on an official visit.

EDIT:
Wonder if the Vic's could be donated to them......

Philippines is looking for new subs not 3rd hand me downs.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Update

@KevinB 15 July Split - SK & GER 7 + 7
@HavokFour 1 July SK 12
@OldSolduer 1 July - 3pm EST SK ?
@oldcpu 13 July SK 12
@Oldgateboatdriver 3 July SK 12
@MilEME09 30 June 14:00 EST SK 12
@NavyShooter 2 July SK 12
@MacNav63 13 July SK 12
@Czech_pivo 7 July Ger 12
@Colin Parkinson 8 July SK 9
@foresterab 9 July SK 12
@deepblue202 5 July SK 12
@calculus 10 July SK & GER 8 - 4
@Retired AF Guy 26 June 15:00 SK 10 B2 option 2 B3
@JMCanada 29 June 5+2 SK & 5+2 Ger
@GR66 2 July Australia(!) 6 Collins Class
@Genetk44 3 July SK 12
@vonGarvin 10 July 13:00 ADST ? ?

 

[Retired AF Guy]

Some wild (very very VERY hypothetical) speculation re: potential delivery schedules for the Hanwha Ocean KSS-III-batch-2 given the recent German/Norwegian TKMS Type-212CD delivery schedule updates. ... Hanwha Ocean originally appeared to have a big advantage in proposed delivery schedule, which Germany narrowed by obtaining German Navy and Norwegian government agreement, for TKMS to possibly each take one boat from their early Type-212CD deliveries and propose pass to Canada. That came close to leveling the delivery schedule 'playing field' between TKMS and Hanwha Ocean.

I asked myself - could Hanwha Ocean do the same? Could Hanwha Ocean propose to divert its last planned KSS-III-batch-2 from the South Korean navy and propose to provide that to the RCN? That could mean a KSS-III-batch-2 in year 2031 to Canada (ie 1 year earlier than the current bandied about 2032) again putting Hanwha Ocean deliveries far in the lead.

Obviously the major argument against such a hypothesis is the impact on South Korea's navy would be big. South Korea very recently lost a KSS-II (TKMS type-214 variant) due to a major fire. So the South Korean navy is already short one submarine and diverting an early KSS-III-batch-2 to Canada would have even more impact on South Korean Navy. ... However, for the sake of speculation, South Korean government (to help Hanwha Ocean) could sweeten the spot to the South Korean Navy, to promise two extra KSS-III-batch-3 submarines (currently likely only on the drawing board as a conventional and NOT the nuclear propulsion KSS) to replace the lost KSS-II and replace a very very hypothetical diverted KSS-III-batch-2 to Canada.

IMHO - its not going to happen. South Korea is unlikely to divert the last boat in its KSS-III-batch-2 production line - but it is a hypothetical scenario I considered.

In doing this, I also asked myself, if Hanwha Ocean gets a contract to provide 12 submarines to Canada, would they all be KSS-III-batch-2, or could it be a 50-50 split between KSS-III-batch-2 and KSS-III-batch-3? (I am assuming batch-3 is conventional propulsion). Again, IMHO, its not going to happen. Canada would only get KSS-III-batch-2 hulls, although I suspect the electronics and some internal systems will be differerent between the first KSS-III-batch-2 and the last KSS-III-batch-2. Technology will advance a lot in the decade between the first and last boat delivery.

Note that Germany/Norway have stated they would only give up one sub each to Canada which means the next two would be delivered at a later, at this time, unknown date. SK would still be delivering all four KS-III B2 in the same tine frame.

Hanwha has a big shipyard upgrade planned to be completed by 2028 that will allow the simultaneous construction of eight ships (five subs, three surface ships) vs the just four at the present (two subs, two surface ships). So its possible they could give Canada a sub ahead of schedule.

Perhaps related to that upgrade, SK plans on replacing the older KS-1 and KS-II subs with a newer 2,000 ton KS-IV sub starting in 2028.

South Korea: Development of KSS-IV Submarines from 2028 – MILMAG

South Korea will begin work on a next-generation KSS-IV class submarine with a displacement of 2,000 tons as early as 2028. It will serve as a successor to the older KSS-I and KSS-II class vessels.

milmag.pl

SK has stated that they are proposing the KSS-III B2 to Canada, not the B1.