Liberal (Minority/Majority) Government 2025 - ???

[Czech_pivo]

In the grand scheme of th crux of the issue, Army rick talking about out of control migration, I seriously think 2.4 people per hour is such small potatoes when talking about 3000 people a day.

It depends - is the expectation that 90+% of these people all leave on their own?

What checkpoints are in place to follow up and ensure that all 2.9 million leave when their visa’s expire?

Canadian visas for 2.9 million temporary residents expire in 2025 and 2026

Nearly three million people living in Canada on temporary resident, worker, or visitor extension permits have visas that expired last year, or will expire this year, not including student visas. New data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada highlights the far-reaching impact of...

edmonton.citynews.ca

 

[Jarnhamar]

In the grand scheme of th crux of the issue, Army rick talking about out of control migration, I seriously think 2.4 people per hour is such small potatoes when talking about 3000 people a day.

This stuff adds up. Costs per asylum claimant (separate from immigrants here) to taxpayers was up to $40,000 or more.

High end estimates during the Roxham highway day had these fellas costing taxpayers $1.4b to $2.5b per year. Call me heartless but I'd rather spend that money on Canadians kids teeth and school lunches. Or supporting skilled immigrants coming here.

The good news, like you point out, is target numbers are down. That doesn't mean we shouldn't be vigilant, and it's too low of a priority to put horsepower into tightening the process up. The LPC can just as easily crank open the taps next month.

 

[Altair]

This stuff adds up. Costs per asylum claimant (separate from immigrants here) to taxpayers was up to $40,000 or more.

High end estimates during the Roxham highway day had these fellas costing taxpayers $1.4b to $2.5b per year. Call me heartless but I'd rather spend that money on Canadians kids teeth and school lunches. Or supporting skilled immigrants coming here.

The good news, like you point out, is target numbers are down. That doesn't mean we shouldn't be vigilant, and it's too low of a priority to put horsepower into tightening the process up. The LPC can just as easily crank open the taps next month.

I dont think the Liberal Progressive Conservaties are going to do that.

 

[YZT580]

Housing is flat. You don't want housing dropping unless your goal is to hammer those who are just getting into houses right now. When their mortgage term is up, watch them get screwed when their LTV rates go in the wrong direction.

Again, we ran into issues by ramping up immigration to levels we couldn't manage. Don't think for a second we wouldn't run into problems if we did the same thing in reverse.

not suggesting that you run it in reverse but if we have planned for a population of 39 million and we have ballooned to 41 million (not real numbers) then watching a drop to 40 million is not as much a retraction as a system correction and it is not harmful. Here is a quote from the CBC article listed above re: increased foreign workers "
Kelly said that while he recognizes it is challenging for youth to find jobs, many of the federation's members in rural and remote locations don't get a lot of young people "willing to take the job."

"Canadian young kids, I’m sorry, they’re not signing up for jobs on farms. They’re not signing up for jobs at the meat plant, they’re not going and planting trees like decades ago in rural and remote locations," he said." What needs to be said to them is that is fine, no work no eat. But there are a lot of kids who have the potential for doing that work if they are given the opportunity and the consequences but if a restaurant can hire an off-shore for 18 an hour and then claw back rent or groceries or transportation costs they will do it and simply say they couldn't find anyone and that is happening a lot. Ford may be trolling for votes but he has got it right. Lets get Canada working again before we say we can't and bring in people when we have a bunch of folks who are just too proud to get their hands dirty.

Everything above does not apply if the people we are losing are the skilled ones. That is what we need to identify and correct if it is true

 

[Altair]

not suggesting that you run it in reverse but if we have planned for a population of 39 million and we have ballooned to 41 million (not real numbers) then watching a drop to 40 million is not as much a retraction as a system correction and it is not harmful. Here is a quote from the CBC article listed above re: increased foreign workers "
Kelly said that while he recognizes it is challenging for youth to find jobs, many of the federation's members in rural and remote locations don't get a lot of young people "willing to take the job."

"Canadian young kids, I’m sorry, they’re not signing up for jobs on farms. They’re not signing up for jobs at the meat plant, they’re not going and planting trees like decades ago in rural and remote locations," he said." What needs to be said to them is that is fine, no work no eat. But there are a lot of kids who have the potential for doing that work if they are given the opportunity and the consequences but if a restaurant can hire an off-shore for 18 an hour and then claw back rent or groceries or transportation costs they will do it and simply say they couldn't find anyone and that is happening a lot. Ford may be trolling for votes but he has got it right. Lets get Canada working again before we say we can't and bring in people when we have a bunch of folks who are just too proud to get their hands dirty.

Everything above does not apply if the people we are losing are the skilled ones. That is what we need to identify and correct if it is true

Young couple buys a house when the population is 41m. Drop the population to 40m much more stock, less pressure.

Housing falls... 15 percent.

Young couple just bought with 10 percent down. 400k house. 40k down. They own 10 percent. But housing has dropped 15 due to the drop.

They now own nothing, and banks, looking at their loan to value massively hikes their rates. They need to sell. But housing is down. Their house joins the oversaturated market. Housing driven down further. Next young couple needs to refinance... and great, you've crashed the housing market, especially for those first time home buyers.

But great news for those with houses who can leverage them to snap up those properties as rentals. Bad news for banks. Lending drops as banks cover their losses. The wider economy begins to struggle. But at least we arbitrarily dropped the population.

Dont play fast and loose with the population, you stand to risk much more of the wider economy.

 

[suffolkowner]

Young couple buys a house when the population is 41m. Drop the population to 40m much more stock, less pressure.

Housing falls... 15 percent.

Young couple just bought with 10 percent down. 400k house. 40k down. They own 10 percent. But housing has dropped 15 due to the drop.

They now own nothing, and banks, looking at their loan to value massively hikes their rates. They need to sell. But housing is down. Their house joins the oversaturated market. Housing driven down further. Next young couple needs to refinance... and great, you've crashed the housing market, especially for those first time home buyers.

But great news for those with houses who can leverage them to snap up those properties as rentals. Bad news for banks. Lending drops as banks cover their losses. The wider economy begins to struggle. But at least we arbitrarily dropped the population.

Dont play fast and loose with the population, you stand to risk much more of the wider economy.

also not that bad for all the young people that havent bought yet. Of course we could just build more houses. Not sure how you can decrease the cost of housing and increase supply without people losing equity

 

[Czech_pivo]

Young couple buys a house when the population is 41m. Drop the population to 40m much more stock, less pressure.

Housing falls... 15 percent.

Young couple just bought with 10 percent down. 400k house. 40k down. They own 10 percent. But housing has dropped 15 due to the drop.

They now own nothing, and banks, looking at their loan to value massively hikes their rates. They need to sell. But housing is down. Their house joins the oversaturated market. Housing driven down further. Next young couple needs to refinance... and great, you've crashed the housing market, especially for those first time home buyers.

But great news for those with houses who can leverage them to snap up those properties as rentals. Bad news for banks. Lending drops as banks cover their losses. The wider economy begins to struggle. But at least we arbitrarily dropped the population.

Dont play fast and loose with the population, you stand to risk much more of the wider economy.

The last government did play fast and loose. The current one is attempting to right the ship.

 

[Altair]

The last government did play fast and loose. The current one is attempting to right the ship.

You are 100 percent correct.

The population is shrinking, but by little percentages. How they managed to thread that needle is honestly impressive to me. Housing is down nationally, but not enough to bankrupt people.

They are doing a good job.

 

[Altair]

also not that bad for all the young people that havent bought yet. Of course we could just build more houses. Not sure how you can decrease the cost of housing and increase supply without people losing equity

Those looking to buy arent going to be buying if prices are crashing. Thats just pissing away their downpayment.

Which only leads to further drops... so on and so forth.

And if prices are dropping, developers arent going to be building. So really, compounding issues.

Long term, stagnation in housing prices or drops low enough that equity gains counteract it is ptobably the only way out of this mess.

But if you push a bracket too hard, the entire house of cards comes tumblings down. And i talk up canada frequently here, but one thing we are really bad at is household debt loads. We are one shock away from the bubble popping.

So people talking about dropping the population by any significant number is maddening to me. Bring on our ruin why dont ya?

 

[Jarnhamar]

You are 100 percent correct.

The population is shrinking, but by little percentages. How they managed to thread that needle is honestly impressive to me. Housing is down nationally, but not enough to bankrupt people.

They are doing a good job.

Canadian Real Estate Association said as of May 2026 the following province's have a year-over-year average price increases:

Quebec
Saskatchewan
Manitoba
Nova Scotia
New Brunswick
Prince Edward Island
Newfoundland and Labrador

British Colombia, Ontario, and Alberta are down.

 

[Altair]

Canadian Real Estate Association said as of May 2026 the following province's have a year-over-year average price increases:

Quebec
Saskatchewan
Manitoba
Nova Scotia
New Brunswick
Prince Edward Island
Newfoundland and Labrador

British Colombia, Ontario, and Alberta are down.

Both these things can be true.

The outsized effect of prices that BC and Ontario have on the national market, any drops in those two alone will drag the entire market down.

March marks four years of declining home prices in Canada

www.rbc.com

The national composite MLS Home Price Index remains firmly on a four year-long decline, down 4.7% from a year ago and 20% from the cyclical peak in early-2022. It slipped a further 0.4% in March from February.

It resulted in the MLS HPI falling 7.4% from a year ago in the Greater Toronto Area, and down 6.8% in the Vancouver area.

The price correction isn’t limited to these markets, though, and ongoing in other parts of Ontario and B.C. including Kitchener-Waterloo (-8.6%), Barrie (-8.4%), Cambridge (-7.4%), Hamilton (-7.3%), London (-7.1%), Guelph (-6.4%) and Fraser Valley (-7.5%). Almost all also saw further monthly declines in March.

Home values are eroding in Alberta as well, albeit to a lesser extent. The MLS HPI was down 2.9% from a year ago in Edmonton and 3% in Calgary. Strong housing construction has brought more supply to market in the past couple of years, helping rebuild inventory and materially ease earlier tightness with demand.

Interesting to this discussion

There’s also a growing risk that persistent gloom arising from geopolitical events, spiking energy prices, and fragile job markets prolongs the slump. Meanwhile, interest rates are unlikely to fall further, and immigration cuts are cooling housing demand, which could delay a rebound in activity.

Just food for thought for anyone seriously thinking of just undoing what Trudeau did willy nilly.

 

[YZT580]

The last government did play fast and loose. The current one is attempting to right the ship.

by buying poorly designed condos that no one wants? how does that right the ship? There is no risk of a housing crash because of a surplus of construction. In fact they are still trying to build more. The biggest problem is they have built a bunch of houses for speculators and investors and not for people. As for numbers, assume we lose 1 million residents. From a housing standpoint so what? We shrink from 41 to 40 mil. But we only have housing for 39 so what's the problem. We still need a million homes. But you and Altair seem to be ignoring the major issue with the shrinkage and that is the quality of the people that are leaving. If they are gold brickers the obvious answer is so what. They are no loss as they are an economic drain that we can't afford. It is good that they voluntarily vacate the premises. If they are skilled individuals then we do have a serious problem and it is not related to housing.

 

[Altair]

by buying poorly designed condos that no one wants? how does that right the ship? There is no risk of a housing crash because of a surplus of construction. In fact they are still trying to build more. The biggest problem is they have built a bunch of houses for speculators and investors and not for people. As for numbers, assume we lose 1 million residents. From a housing standpoint so what? We shrink from 41 to 40 mil. But we only have housing for 39 so what's the problem. We still need a million homes. But you and Altair seem to be ignoring the major issue with the shrinkage and that is the quality of the people that are leaving. If they are gold brickers the obvious answer is so what. They are no loss as they are an economic drain that we can't afford. It is good that they voluntarily vacate the premises. If they are skilled individuals then we do have a serious problem and it is not related to housing.

It doesn't matter that we have housing for 39m

The market adjusted housing for 41m. People bought homes at markets priced at 41m. Dropping a million people leads to lower prices, but variables that would destroy those who bought in at the market when the market was priced at 41m.

You cannot play fast and loose with the population on the way down any more than you can on the way up. It's like getting shot in one leg and shooting yourself in the next one to even it out.

Turns out, you make the problem worse.

 

[YZT580]

It doesn't matter that we have housing for 39m

The market adjusted housing for 41m. People bought homes at markets priced at 41m. Dropping a million people leads to lower prices, but variables that would destroy those who bought in at the market when the market was priced at 41m.

You cannot play fast and loose with the population on the way down any more than you can on the way up. It's like getting shot in one leg and shooting yourself in the next one to even it out.

Turns out, you make the problem worse.

Fixing the problem isn't done by bringing in more people; even bringing in the right people. It is done by eliminating the reasons they are leaving in the first place. Think of your kitchen sink. Put the plug in and start filling it. When it reaches capacity, pull the plug. Water is draining out but it is going in as well so assuming the rates are the same you have reached status quo and that is what we are after in population. The plug is a satisfied population with no desire to leave and a rate of input (the tap) that equals the level of those leaving. If we need a half a million people coming in to keep our population balanced then I say again we have a serious problem and it isn't housing.

But lets talk about housing. Your so-called solution maintains a housing market that is not affordable to the majority of people looking for accommodation. It is arbitrarily protecting people who shouldn't have been there in the first place: the prices were just too high. I don't know how old you are or when you entered the market but I have survived through 17 percent mortgages and two market crashes. Market crashes aren't pretty and people get hurt but there is no other way that you are going to balance the market to permit today's 30 year old buyers to get into the market. Prices have to come down and come down significantly.

 

[Eaglelord17]

It doesn't matter that we have housing for 39m

The market adjusted housing for 41m. People bought homes at markets priced at 41m. Dropping a million people leads to lower prices, but variables that would destroy those who bought in at the market when the market was priced at 41m.

You cannot play fast and loose with the population on the way down any more than you can on the way up. It's like getting shot in one leg and shooting yourself in the next one to even it out.

Turns out, you make the problem worse.

I said this when the market was on its way up and I will say it now, we should do everything in our power to pop the bubble as the longer we avoid doing so the worse it will be.

Yes some will get hurt, but that is the risk you take if you over-leverage yourself. The government shouldn’t be bailing out those who made poor decisions, individual profits, individual losses.

 

[Altair]

Fixing the problem isn't done by bringing in more people; even bringing in the right people. It is done by eliminating the reasons they are leaving in the first place. Think of your kitchen sink. Put the plug in and start filling it. When it reaches capacity, pull the plug. Water is draining out but it is going in as well so assuming the rates are the same you have reached status quo and that is what we are after in population. The plug is a satisfied population with no desire to leave and a rate of input (the tap) that equals the level of those leaving. If we need a half a million people coming in to keep our population balanced then I say again we have a serious problem and it isn't housing.

But lets talk about housing. Your so-called solution maintains a housing market that is not affordable to the majority of people looking for accommodation. It is arbitrarily protecting people who shouldn't have been there in the first place: the prices were just too high. I don't know how old you are or when you entered the market but I have survived through 17 percent mortgages and two market crashes. Market crashes aren't pretty and people get hurt but there is no other way that you are going to balance the market to permit today's 30 year old buyers to get into the market. Prices have to come down and come down significantly.

Im 39. I bought my house at 35. Im actually fine, as i own 30 percent outright and if i pooled my investments together, i could own another 30 percent. I would make out like a bandit buying property that my peers can no longer afford.

So i say this from a purely altruistic point of view. If you want to screw over, for life, people under 40, sure. Crash the housing market. See how many other dominoes go down with it.

Would make 2008 look like a walk in the park.

 

[Altair]

I said this when the market was on its way up and I will say it now, we should do everything in our power to pop the bubble as the longer we avoid doing so the worse it will be.

Yes some will get hurt, but that is the risk you take if you over-leverage yourself. The government shouldn’t be bailing out those who made poor decisions, individual profits, individual losses.

We can simply slowly, over generations, deflate the bubble. Because popping it wont be limited to the housing market. The broader canadian economy is very tied into it. Take down the housing market, take down the banks, take down the banks, well... 2008 on steriods.

 

[Altair]

I actually have a good idea.

PP wins the election.

PP crashes the housing market.

By the time the dust settles, and you have hundreds of thousands of homeless, a few bank failures, and the broader economy is in ruins, the CPC dont win another election for 30 years.

I like it.

 

[Jarnhamar]

I actually have a good idea.

PP wins the election.

PP crashes the housing market.

By the time the dust settles, and you have hundreds of thousands of homeless, a few bank failures, and the broader economy is in ruins, the CPC dont win another election for 30 years.

I like it.

That's a weird thing to say.

 

[Altair]

That's a weird thing to say.

The LPC introduced the NEP and were persona non grata for a generation, more like 2.

Imagine that, but on a national scale, and not just energy policy , but peoples literal homes and jobs, and the economy on a whole.

Its not far fetched to say any party does what people are so flippantly suggesting would be wiped out at the federal level coast to coast to coast.