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Replacing the Subs

oldcpu said:
I can't help shake the feeling that the upcoming press announcements on 6-July (in Halifax by Canadian PM and in Esquimalt by Canadian Secretary of State (Defence Procurement), before a NATO meeting, means a NATO supplier of the submarine is to be selected (ie TKMS with Type-212CD)

However, I note early morning speculation in South Korea, saw a 15% jump in Hanwha Ocean stock, before it dropped to +5% increase. It does appear some in South Korea are betting on a Hanwha Ocean contract award.

View attachment 101108

These are interesting times.

What ever the choice, I believe it good for Canada (and the RCN in particular). .... And now (in addition to infrastructure) there will need be a big focus in coming years finding the personnel to man the submarines (and to retain them).
Click to expand...

President of South Korea is going to be at the NATO summit in person. I think that may lean more into Hanwha being chosen.

 
oldcpu said:
I can't help shake the feeling that the upcoming press announcements on 6-July (in Halifax by Canadian PM and in Esquimalt by Canadian Secretary of State (Defence Procurement), before a NATO meeting, means a NATO supplier of the submarine is to be selected (ie TKMS with Type-212CD)

However, I note early morning speculation in South Korea, saw a 15% jump in Hanwha Ocean stock, before it dropped to +5% increase. It does appear some in South Korea are betting on a Hanwha Ocean contract award.

View attachment 101108

These are interesting times.

What ever the choice, I believe it good for Canada (and the RCN in particular). .... And now (in addition to infrastructure) there will need be a big focus in coming years finding the personnel to man the submarines (and to retain them).
Click to expand...
Having top of the line modern subs will help just in public image alone to recruit, but like all branches. Much will need to be done to get people ready for first delivery
 
oldcpu said:
However, I note early morning speculation in South Korea, saw a 15% jump in Hanwha Ocean stock, before it dropped to +5% increase. It does appear some in South Korea are betting on a Hanwha Ocean contract award.
....
Click to expand...

It does look to me that speculators, likely from opposites sides of the world, are diving into both Hanwha Ocean and TKMS in the hopes that either company gets selected as the preferred supplier for the Canadian Patrol Submarine project.

I don't want to spam every one with more charts. I note, as I type, this Hanwha Ocean, having risen 15%, and then having fallen back, is now back to about 8.5 % up on the day. Still less thou, less than its original 15% jump.

Elsewhere in the world, TKMS is currently up 3% on the day, but I note on the overall week (looking at last week), TKMS is up about 13.3%.
 
Oldgateboatdriver said:
Good. With TKMS at the helm, this thread will probably go on even longer than the Replacing the AOR thread. :)
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Have to speculate, if this news from the G&M is correct, if this means that we'll be seeing a teaming up with the Germans on their initiative in developing a 6th gen fighter will move forward or will we be sticking with GCAP.
 
So the Germany choice, if that is correct, is it the worst choice of the two? I've heard that some worried that Germany couldn't produce sub quick enough for Canada.
 
Ganon91 said:
So the Germany choice, if that is correct, is it the worst choice of the two? I've heard that some worried that Germany couldn't produce sub quick enough for Canada.
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Neither boat is “worst”- they have different capabilities, but both are good.

The issue with TKMS was always schedule, given their track record.

Maybe this Government views that as a plus?
 
Ganon91 said:
So the Germany choice, if that is correct, is it the worst choice of the two? I've heard that some worried that Germany couldn't produce sub quick enough for Canada.
Click to expand...
Timeline wise they are the worse choice, and will only make the deadline by bumping other nations out of their spots. Im no expert but seems to me the german design has more technological risk of delay that the first boat likely wont arrive on time vs the koreans.
 
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Ya, it's the time delays and people saying the Korea ones are better technology-with the Germany company being a lot more vague on the details.

If they did go with Germany, I do wonder why the government would choose one with a much more sketchy delivery. Maybe trying to leave wiggle room should they lose power given the cost of the program?
 
SeaKingTacco said:
Maybe this Government views that as a plus?
Click to expand...
Absolutely. When things settle down in the world and down south we will be able to pay an excessive penalty, cancel the subs that haven't been delivered and not have to worry about hiring crew. There is one reason for our new defence spending and it is orange and south. Carney may view defence as a worthwhile investment but many bureaucrats do not and there is a very good chance that his successor, of what ever strip, will not either.
 
AmmoTech90 said:
Absolutely. When things settle down in the world and down south we will be able to pay an excessive penalty, cancel the subs that haven't been delivered and not have to worry about hiring crew. There is one reason for our new defence spending and it is orange and south. Carney may view defence as a worthwhile investment but many bureaucrats do not and there is a very good chance that his successor, of what ever strip, will not either.
Click to expand...

But Canada needs new subs. And even if things 'settle down', that the USA elected someone like Trump twice means that we cannot expect to have the same reliability. Not to mention the current subs are, I suspect, already entering their end life for what their hulls can stand.
 
Ganon91 said:
But Canada needs new subs. And even if things 'settle down', that the USA elected someone like Trump twice means that we cannot expect to have the same reliability. Not to mention the current subs are, I suspect, already entering their end life for what their hulls can stand.
Click to expand...
A lot of the Mandarins in Ottawa don’t see things that way.
 
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