TKMS Type 212CD (Victoria class replacement megathread)

[Czech_pivo]

These are exciting times for the RCN. My having typed that, IMHO the RCN has its work cut out for itself in the next half dozen years, as it attempts to get ready for the Type-212CD submarines. It needs to provide qualified personnel to:
(a) Man the existing Victoria (Upholder) class to prevent a critical capability gap.
(b) Maintain the existing Victoria class as it ages into the 2030s
(c) man the project office to support subsequent negotiation with TKMS for the Type-212CD
(d) continue staffing that project office to oversee the massive multi-year procurement process
(e) recruit personnel to be trained to both man and maintain the new Type-212CD, including creation of new training pipelines
(f) monitor/support the major infrastructure changes needed at places like Halifax (or nearby), Esquimalt (or nearby), and Churchill/other for berth and along side maintenance area of these submarines
(g) support any submarine industrial offset verification directly related to submarine equipment.

I suspect there are many points not mentioned. Given the RCN is experiencig severe personnel shortages, and given that the RCN can't even man their current Victoria class of submarines, finding and training the people for the above, is a massive challenge and undertaking.

I wish the RCN all the best.

Churchill?
With all the talk of the waters around Churchill being shallow and prone to silting every season, we are thinking about about putting subs into that port? I don’t seem to remember any of that talk, unless I was asleep in the corner when it occurred.
Any documents to reference/site that as part of the plan?

 

[lenaitch]

Churchill?
With all the talk of the waters around Churchill being shallow and prone to silting every season, we are thinking about about putting subs into that port? I don’t seem to remember any of that talk, unless I was asleep in the corner when it occurred.
Any documents to reference/site that as part of the plan?

Or Moosonee! Right next to the deep water LNG port.

 

[GK .Dundas]

Or Moosonee! Right next to the deep water LNG port.

Next topic of conversation dredging harbors with Nuclear devices ...When you absolutely positively need a 50 foot deep harbor....RIGHT NOW !

 

[calculus]

Interesting article from a German source, in which can be found confirmation that Canada will receive 4 boats by 2024, and that TKMS will have two yards capably of building 1.5 boats per year, but planned to build even quicker than that.

Kanadische Regierung will bis zu 12 U-Boote bei TKMS kaufen

Der kanadische Premierminister Mark Carney hat heute vor seinem Abflug zum NATO-Gipfel in Ankara auf der Canadian Forces Base Halifax bekanntgegeben, dass

www.hartpunkt.de

Right click within the article and select the "Translate to English" option from the pop-up menu.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Interesting article from a German source, in which can be found confirmation that Canada will receive 4 boats by 202434, and that TKMS will have two yards capably of building 1.5 boats per year, but planned to build even quicker than that.

Kanadische Regierung will bis zu 12 U-Boote bei TKMS kaufen

Der kanadische Premierminister Mark Carney hat heute vor seinem Abflug zum NATO-Gipfel in Ankara auf der Canadian Forces Base Halifax bekanntgegeben, dass

www.hartpunkt.de

Right click within the article and select the "Translate to English" option from the pop-up menu.

Slight tweak.

Noah also posted that we should have all our boats by 2042. So 1 per year from 2035-42. We'll have all 12 boats well before we have our 15 Rivers....

 

[Ganon91]

Wait, explain that to me. How could we have 12 subs before we have fifteen Rivers-ships are a lot more complicated that a surface boat, so should we not have all the Rivers sooner?

 

[Halifax Tar]

Wait, explain that to me. How could we have 12 subs before we have fifteen Rivers-subs are a lot more complicated that a surface boat, so should we not have all the Rivers sooner?

Your first step is you have believe what TKMS is saying. Then after that you just continue to stomach down their Kool aid.

 

[ADarter]

Noah's article on it. He tries to be nice like usual but he doesn't seem very confident. I don't see how they could pull it off but it's apparently possible if everything works out?

Canada Would Get Twelve Submarines By 2042: TKMS CEO Oliver Burkhard

Noah Note

www.truenorthstrategicreview.ca

 

[oldcpu]

Churchill?
With all the talk of the waters around Churchill being shallow and prone to silting every season, we are thinking about about putting subs into that port? I don’t seem to remember any of that talk, unless I was asleep in the corner when it occurred.
Any documents to reference/site that as part of the plan?

My reading was that Churchill shows up as one of the named elements of the TKMS industrial offer, though the details are still thin at this stage (preferred-supplier announcement, not signed contract).

Per a Quwa analysis of the July 6, 2026 announcement, the offset package includes the redevelopment of the Port of Churchill in Manitoba, Canada's only Arctic deep-water port.

Reference the dredging and seasonality constraints raised by you. I believe they are real, but are they not mainly a large-vessel commercial shipping problem — where I think Churchill's existing berths are sized for Panamax bulk carriers. Expanding to handle bigger commercial traffic is what would require further dredging of the approach channel. A surfaced 212CD's draft is considerably shallower than a loaded bulk carrier's, so I suspect depth alone likely isn't the limiting factor for routine summer submarine visits. I haven't seen this addressed directly in anything public, so take that as my reasoning rather than a 100% sourced claim.

I am retired with no 'contacts' nor any access to the program other than what is in the unclassified press. My assumption is that the RCN could use an upgraded Churchill port facility as a summer refueling/resupply location for not only Harry de Wolf class, but also an Arctic summer patrolling Type-212CD submarine, and even a potential Continental Corvette if such is given a polar class capability comparable to the Harry de Wolf class.

 

[Ganon91]

Your first step is you have believe what TKMS is saying. Then after that you just continue to stomach down their Kool aid.

Not very positive with this stuff, are you, lol

 

[Rainbow1910]

Not very positive with this stuff, are you, lol

When one bidder is specifically behind on one element for the majority of their bid and manages to correct it AND beat their competitor in the last minute, I think a healthy dose of skepticism is warranted. Doubly so when they are already dealing with production bottlenecks and a number of other problems at the same time.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Noah's article on it. He tries to be nice like usual but he doesn't seem very confident. I don't see how they could pull it off but it's apparently possible if everything works out?

Canada Would Get Twelve Submarines By 2042: TKMS CEO Oliver Burkhard

Noah Note

www.truenorthstrategicreview.ca

ALOT hinges on their new facility in Wismar and its ability to get up and running quickly.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Not very positive with this stuff, are you, lol

You must be new to defence acquisition in these parts, then? I think both sides here have at least small grains of salt to be taken when reading what they say they'll do. I do hope for the best, but it's still early days.

 

[calculus]

When one bidder is specifically behind on one element for the majority of their bid and manages to correct it AND beat their competitor in the last minute, I think a healthy dose of skepticism is warranted. Doubly so when they are already dealing with production bottlenecks and a number of other problems at the same time.

The main determinant is the participation of the German and Norwegian governments, who have offered at least 2 and possibly 3 of their production slots to Canada. Where this just TKMS, I would agree with your skepticism.

 

[OldSolduer]

Sooooo….German boats should be numbered.

HMCUSB 1001

 

[calculus]

This video should go a long way to reducing the angst. Not even including the new Wismar facility.

 

[Rainbow1910]

The main determinant is the participation of the German and Norwegian governments, who have offered at least 2 and possibly 3 of their production slots to Canada. Where this just TKMS, I would agree with your skepticism.

Which Canada now has the honours of receiving a number of early production boats which we need to replace our own aging submarines, with all of their quibbles and issues intact. The Germans and Norwegians get to sit back while we beta test the design, a design which isn't even operational as of the signing of this agreement. There is incredibly minimal room for error in this proposal from the Europeans, I expect multiple things to do wrong and the media to jump on this given how high profile it is/how sensitive of an issue submarines are in this country.

Call me a skeptic but I don't trust the Germans on this, they've shown their failings as much as they've shown their competency with past and ongoing procurements.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Which Canada now has the honours of receiving a number of early production boats which we need to replace our own aging submarines, with all of their quibbles and issues intact. The Germans and Norwegians get to sit back while we beta test the design, a design which isn't even operational as of the signing of this agreement. There is incredibly minimal room for error in this proposal from the Europeans, I expect multiple things to do wrong and the media to jump on this given how high profile it is/how sensitive of an issue submarines are in this country.

Call me a skeptic but I don't trust the Germans on this, they've shown their failings as much as they've shown their competency with past and ongoing procurements.

Well if we are to be the 'beta' testers on these boats, then I'd like to hope that the initial batch is priced accordingly......

 

[calculus]

Which Canada now has the honours of receiving a number of early production boats which we need to replace our own aging submarines, with all of their quibbles and issues intact. The Germans and Norwegians get to sit back while we beta test the design, a design which isn't even operational as of the signing of this agreement. There is incredibly minimal room for error in this proposal from the Europeans, I expect multiple things to do wrong and the media to jump on this given how high profile it is/how sensitive of an issue submarines are in this country.

Call me a skeptic but I don't trust the Germans on this, they've shown their failings as much as they've shown their competency with past and ongoing procurements.

That's another whole different problem from delivery, but certainly valid. Of note the first sub is launcing next year, for delivery in 2029, so it appears they have built in a good margin for test and bug fixes.

 

[MacNav63]

Which Canada now has the honours of receiving a number of early production boats which we need to replace our own aging submarines, with all of their quibbles and issues intact. The Germans and Norwegians get to sit back while we beta test the design, a design which isn't even operational as of the signing of this agreement. There is incredibly minimal room for error in this proposal from the Europeans, I expect multiple things to do wrong and the media to jump on this given how high profile it is/how sensitive of an issue submarines are in this country.

Call me a skeptic but I don't trust the Germans on this, they've shown their failings as much as they've shown their competency with past and ongoing procurements.

I can't post the article here given the source but the media are already, if not jumping then hinting broadly at, the "we chose an unproven design over a boat that's already operational" angle. There will be more. I would expect much more at least until we ink the deal with TKMS.