Author Topic: Belarus Instability - August 2020  (Read 627 times)

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Offline GR66

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Belarus Instability - August 2020
« on: August 03, 2020, 09:34:43 »
The BBC is reporting that 33 Russian military contractors have been arrested in Belarus amid concerns that they might be part of a larger group attempting to influence the upcoming elections.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53592854

Meanwhile Defence Blog is reporting that Belarus is sending troops to reinforce their border with Russia in order to prevent a Donbass-style intervention.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53592854

Appears to be a somewhat confusing situation as Belarus has been a close ally of Russia and their militaries conduct joint exercises.  Will be interesting to see what develops.

Offline Ostrozac

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Re: Belarus Instability - August 2020
« Reply #1 on: August 03, 2020, 10:46:17 »
Appears to be a somewhat confusing situation as Belarus has been a close ally of Russia and their militaries conduct joint exercises.  Will be interesting to see what develops.

Those close ties with Russia were under the current President - who has held power since 1994. He is currently facing a protest movement and an upcoming Presidential election. Such elections were usually undemocratic formalities that rubber-stamped his regime, but Russia may now have some concerns that they are on the brink of losing an ally/buffer state.

Offline GR66

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Re: Belarus Instability - August 2020
« Reply #2 on: August 03, 2020, 11:15:42 »
Those close ties with Russia were under the current President - who has held power since 1994. He is currently facing a protest movement and an upcoming Presidential election. Such elections were usually undemocratic formalities that rubber-stamped his regime, but Russia may now have some concerns that they are on the brink of losing an ally/buffer state.

Agreed, but there is some suggestion in the article that Wagner was possibly working FOR the opposition and it's the current President, Lukashenko, that appears to be suggesting that it's Russia trying to destabilize the country.  You'd think Putin would want to prop up his old ally rather than support a protest candidate.

Offline Ostrozac

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Re: Belarus Instability - August 2020
« Reply #3 on: August 03, 2020, 11:30:44 »
Agreed, but there is some suggestion in the article that Wagner was possibly working FOR the opposition and it's the current President, Lukashenko, that appears to be suggesting that it's Russia trying to destabilize the country.  You'd think Putin would want to prop up his old ally rather than support a protest candidate.
Russia may have already assessed that their old buddy is done and hung him out to dry, and now they are trying to make sure that the ‘right’ opposition takes power, rather than some faction they disagree with.

Or it’s something else. Riddles within enigmas and all that.

Offline Furniture

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Re: Belarus Instability - August 2020
« Reply #4 on: August 03, 2020, 11:43:13 »
Russia may have already assessed that their old buddy is done and hung him out to dry, and now they are trying to make sure that the ‘right’ opposition takes power, rather than some faction they disagree with.

Or it’s something else. Riddles within enigmas and all that.

I was thinking much the same, though I'd also argue it could just be that Russia doesn't want more civil war/unrest on their border, giving another reason for the West to meddle in it's sphere of influence.

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Re: Belarus Instability - August 2020
« Reply #5 on: August 03, 2020, 14:58:15 »
The situation has been deteriorating since the Ukraine situation. Belarus has strong feelings of independence from Russia but is economically dependent on it.

This is a nice summary from last February.

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Offline Colin P

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Re: Belarus Instability - August 2020
« Reply #6 on: August 03, 2020, 15:29:14 »
keeping Belarus within the Russian sphere means that an army would only have to transit a 124km of hostile land to reach the borders of Kaliningrad 

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Offline Flanker

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Re: Belarus Instability - August 2020
« Reply #8 on: Today at 09:54:47 »
"Russia deploys tanks to Belarus’ border amid unprecedented escalation of tensions" (defence-blog.com)

The title is highly misleading at least and sources are missing.
As for voa and dw, why comment state-paid propaganda?

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Re: Belarus Instability - August 2020
« Reply #9 on: Today at 10:48:37 »
Did anyone happen to watch the last season of Berlin Station? Life imitating art all over the place.
Apparently, a "USUAL SUSPECT"

“In peace there's nothing so becomes a man as modest stillness and humility; but when the blast of war blows in our ears, then imitate the action of the tiger; stiffen the sinews, summon up the blood, disguise fair nature with hard-favor'd rage.”

 Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and start slitting throats