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CAN-USA 2025 Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

Its my personal opinion (that many MDs share) zero is the safe amount of canola to consume.

I wouldn't be quick to quote things from heartandstroke. Its a deep rabbit hole but there are many cardiologist fed up with recommendations by H and S.

Its a topic better to split off. Myself, being a 90-95% carnivore and I frequently fast 24-48 hours, I have very "unconventional" views and not the least bit interested in sharing them here.
We had our daughter on a carnivore diet for a year after her diagnose, because pretty much everything was causing a reaction. We did take great care in ensuring she took supplements. Over the last few years we have been slowly reintroducing foods to her diet as her system has repaired itself.
 
Elbows up?

Anxiety up, more like...

Recap Week ending August 1, 2025 – As Canada awaits a breakthrough in stalled US trade negotiations, public anxiety has risen. A Nanos report shows economic concerns now rival US-Canada relations as the nation’s top issue. Consumer confidence remains stagnant, with “uncertainty” the only certainty amid tense talks. Meanwhile, evolving public attitudes toward defence spending and America suggest a complex recalibration of Canada’s priorities. Canadians appear apprehensive, yet watchful—eyes fixed on Washington, wallets gripped at home.

 
"Donald Trump is One of the Most Law-Abiding Presidents in American History"

Except for the whole convicted felon thing; although that did happen between presidencies.

Doesn't say might about US presidents.
 
Have a read of this briefing by a law firm on USMCA, it’s a bit stale but still very useful in understanding the agreement.


When I read this - it’s now clear that even if Trump decides to ‘walk away’ from USMCA in July of 2026, it still lives on for another 10yrs until 2036 when it would cease to exist. At anytime during those 10yrs all 3 parties can all agree to extend it for another 16yrs past 2036.
As a result - USMCA will be in effect until 2036, in its present form and no one can change it unless all 3 parties agree to the changes.

If the lawsuits making there way through the US courts ‘go our way’ and the tariffs put in place because to fentanyl are all thrown out, then both Canada and Mexicl will be the only 2 countries in the world to have no or virtually no tariffs against them. This puts us in a huge advantage. A German or Japanese or South Korean or French company whisking to ‘bypass’ the 15% traffic against then has a choice to set up shop to manufacture their product in the US OR in Canada or Mexico and have that product be allowed tax free into the US….
 
Have a read of this briefing by a law firm on USMCA, it’s a bit stale but still very useful in understanding the agreement.


When I read this - it’s now clear that even if Trump decides to ‘walk away’ from USMCA in July of 2026, it still lives on for another 10yrs until 2036 when it would cease to exist. At anytime during those 10yrs all 3 parties can all agree to extend it for another 16yrs past 2036.
As a result - USMCA will be in effect until 2036, in its present form and no one can change it unless all 3 parties agree to the changes.

If the lawsuits making there way through the US courts ‘go our way’ and the tariffs put in place because to fentanyl are all thrown out, then both Canada and Mexicl will be the only 2 countries in the world to have no or virtually no tariffs against them. This puts us in a huge advantage. A German or Japanese or South Korean or French company whisking to ‘bypass’ the 15% traffic against then has a choice to set up shop to manufacture their product in the US OR in Canada or Mexico and have that product be allowed tax free into the US….
The one potential wrinkle would be if the US were to unilaterally withdraw from the agreement in which case they would exit the agreement with six months notice. From Microsoft's AI overview:

  • Article 34.6:
    This article outlines the process for withdrawal. Any of the three countries (US, Canada, or Mexico) can choose to leave the agreement.
  • Six-Month Notice:
    The withdrawing party must give the other two parties a written notice of their intent to withdraw.
  • Effective Date:
    The withdrawal becomes effective six months after the notice is provided.
  • Unilateral Action:
    This means that one country can decide to leave the agreement on its own, without needing the agreement or consent of the other two.
  • Potential for Disruption:
    While the provision allows for withdrawal, it's important to note that such a move could create significant economic and political disruption for all three countries, especially those heavily reliant on trade with the US.
In essence, the USMCA allows for a country to leave the agreement with six months' notice, but this action has the potential for serious consequences for the region's trade relationships.
 
The one potential wrinkle would be if the US were to unilaterally withdraw from the agreement in which case they would exit the agreement with six months notice. From Microsoft's AI overview:

  • Article 34.6:
    This article outlines the process for withdrawal. Any of the three countries (US, Canada, or Mexico) can choose to leave the agreement.
  • Six-Month Notice:
    The withdrawing party must give the other two parties a written notice of their intent to withdraw.
  • Effective Date:
    The withdrawal becomes effective six months after the notice is provided.
  • Unilateral Action:
    This means that one country can decide to leave the agreement on its own, without needing the agreement or consent of the other two.
  • Potential for Disruption:
    While the provision allows for withdrawal, it's important to note that such a move could create significant economic and political disruption for all three countries, especially those heavily reliant on trade with the US.
In essence, the USMCA allows for a country to leave the agreement with six months' notice, but this action has the potential for serious consequences for the region's trade relationships.
Yes, but only after July of 2026, so Jan of 2027 at the earliest- but this would be after the US midterm elections, which has the potential of the Democratics gaining control of Congress.
I can’t see Trump being able to do something like this without the approval of the US Congress.
Too many US border states would never allow this to happen.
 
Yes, but only after July of 2026, so Jan of 2027 at the earliest- but this would be after the US midterm elections, which has the potential of the Democratics gaining control of Congress.
I can’t see Trump being able to do something like this without the approval of the US Congress.
Too many US border states would never allow this to happen.
Technically the US could give their 6-month written notice of withdrawal tomorrow which would be February 2026, but as you say I can't see even Trump scrapping the deal all together. The markets would have a meltdown.

I still expect the US to withhold CUSMA renewal next July as a pressure tactic to get additional concessions from Canada and Mexico.
 
Does Trump have the executive authority to unilaterally exit CUSMA or would it require an act of Congress?
 
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